OxBlog

Wednesday, December 11, 2002

# Posted 6:54 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

(MIS)TAKING A LEAK: The Post reports that it is now official US policy to launch preemptive strikes against all those who seek to deploy illegal weapons of mass destruction. While a public version of the administration's statement declared that it would launch strikes against those who seek to use weapons of mass destruction, "a classified version of the strategy" indicated that the US would also launch strikes against those who simply possess illegal weapons. Moreover, the US may use its own weapons of mass destruction to accomplish its objectives.

Without taking anything away from the investigative skills of the Post's reporters, I think it is clear that the "classified version" of the administration's strategy was never meant to be classified. It is really just a veiled threat to the four states listed in a "top-secret appendix" to the "classified version": Iran, Syria, Iraq and North Korea. The Post suggests that this warning is directed principally at Iraq. I find that hard to believe. Saddam knows that the US will oust his government in the event of war. He probably assumes that he will die in the process. Why, then, should he care if the US launches a nuclear strike? If anything, such an attack would establish him as a martyr, which is what he no doubt wants to be.

Possibly, the warning was directed more at North Korea. Caught shipping missiles to the Gulf, it clearly needs to be warned about the consequences of its behavior. Yet a threat directed at Pyongyang is not 100% credible either. For as long as North Korean conventional weapons -- primarily artillery -- have the capacity to devastate Seoul, the US will be hesitant to strike the North. On the other hand, even Clinton approached the brink of ordering attacks on the North Korean nuclear plant at Yongbyon back in 1994. There may simply be no choice.

Regardless of what the White House intended to accomplish with its leak, we can be sure that it will make Jimmy Carter very unhappy. In the speech he delivered after accepting the Nobel Prize, he denounced the doctrine of preemptive warfare. In light of how hawkish Carter became when limited Soviet aggression embarrassed his administration, I think it is rather unfair of him to criticize Bush for responding strongly to a clear and present danger. Moreover, the Nobel committee is doubly hypocritical for describing Carter as an advocate of peace in era "marked by threats of the use of power", since Carter had no qualms about resorting to threats when his own credibility was on the line. Don't get me wrong -- I think Carter was right to take a hard line after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. Now he has to take responsibility for that decision.

On the bright side, Carter endorsed the current effort to disarm Iraq. Still, his endorsement of 1441 seems less than wholehearted in light of his description of Resolution 242 -- calling on Israel to trade land for peace -- as "the mandate whose implementation could...improve international relations" more than any other. Jimmy, you're making it hard for me to keep defending your record.
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