# Posted 3:16 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

TIME IS MONEY: It's hard to know what to make of the Turkish parliament's rejection of a US aid package in exchange for its granting the right to let the US use Turkish territory to launch an invasion of northern Iraq. While there were more MPs for the deal than against it, there were a few too many absentions for the deal to become binding.

The Turkish government can submit the deal to parliament again, but would almost definitely have to wait at least a week before doing so. As long as the government can persuade a handful of MPs to switch from absention to non-votes (i.e. not showing up in parliament for the vote), the deal will pass.

That seems to be what the US Army wants, though it's hard to know whether it really means it when it says that it can't afford to wait another week. In light of how hard it would be to hold northern Iraq without Turkish support, I have to imagine the Army is mostly talking tough to put pressure on the Turks.

What may influence the Turks more than the Army, though, is the fact that the Turkish stock market dropped 11% within minutes of opening today in response to the prospective loss of American aid in exchange for basing rights. The currency also fell 5%.

All in all, I expect Turkey to come around. The government is too concerned about Kurdish independence to give up the role in northern Iraq that it would get in exchange for working with the US. Its economy also needs US aid quite badly.

One ought to note that many more government MPs than expected voted with the opposition on the aid deal. However, I sense that these defection represented the widespread hope that the deal would pass in spite of such defections, so that defecting MPs could tell their constituents they stood up to the United States without having to shoulder resposibility for actually doing so.

Even so, this unplanned opposition may have made opponents of the bill aware that they have enough momentum to stop the deal. Do they? Stay tuned.

UPDATE: Josh Marshall is spinning the Turkish situation as a major failure on the administration's part. His main point is that we pissed off the Kurds in order to get a deal with the Turks that never came through.

As with North Korea, I think Marshall is jumping the gun on this one. The Administration got a solid commitment from the Turkish government, which was dealt a suprise setback by its own supporters. While the Kurds weren't happy with the deal, it was hardly the "sell out" of "an incipient democracy in Iraqi Kurdistan".

But every cloud has a silver lining. I'm glad to see that Josh is even more concerned about democracy in the Middle East than I thought he was.

UPDATE: Kevin Drum is also spinning the Turkish situation as a Dick Cheney fiasco, mostly in response to NRO's decision to blame the State Department. People, can we have some patience? (Or at least blame the Turkish government's incompetence rather than that of Dick Cheney or Colin Powell.) (0) opinions -- Add your opinion