OxBlog

Thursday, April 17, 2003

# Posted 8:18 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

BIASED POLLS: I don't think I have ever seen a question as biased as this one:
8. How do you feel about the possibility that the United States will get bogged down in a long and costly peacekeeping mission in Iraq? Would you say you're very concerned about that, somewhat concerned, not too concerned or not concerned at all?
Given the considerable attention which polling firms devote to asking neutral questions, I have absolutely no idea how this one got through. Even if you look at the rest of the questions in the same survey, you see that considerable care was taken to ensure neutrality.

The answers given to the question above are hardly surprising: 31% are "very concerned" and 42% are "somewhat concerned". In an article on public opinion, the WaPo naively reported that
A darker undercurrent of American opinion is the growing majority of those who say they are at least somewhat concerned about becoming bogged down in an expensive peacekeeping mission in Iraq. Fully 73 percent expressed this view, compared to 62 percent last week.
I actually read the WaPo article before looking at the raw data and assumed that it was unfairly paraphrasing the actual question that was asked. In fact, it was just parroting it .

To get some idea of what Americans actually think about the occupation, talk a look at this Gallup poll from last week: 33% of Americans expect a significant number of troops to remain in Iraq for six to twelve months, while 28% expect the occupation to last more than twelve months and 21% expect the occupation to last more than two years.

In addition, 51% of respondents believe that it will be somewhat difficult to create a stable democratic government in Iraq while 31% believe it will be very difficult. Perhaps that's why so many Americans expect a long occupation.

Moreover, there is evidence -- this time from the WaPo/ABC poll -- that Americans don't simply expect a challenging occupation, but are committed to one as a matter of principle. When asked how important it is to "help establish a new government in Iraq", 47% said that it is "absolutely essential" while an additional 41% said that it was "very important but not essential".

The striking contrast between this data and the answers to the biased question above show just how important it is for polling firms to maintain a neutral stance.

Thus, despite all of the pundits' carping about the President's failure to prepare the American public for a significant commitment to reconstruction, these poll results show that he has done quite a reasonable job.

Another very interesting finding in the polls is the American public's enduring respect for the United Nations and their belief that it is an important source of international legitimacy. To see what I mean, take a look at the following results:
5. For each item I name, please tell me who you think should be in charge of that - the United States or the United Nations?

4/16/03 - Summary Table

United United Both Neither No
States Nations (vol.) (vol.) opin.
a. awarding contracts to companies
for rebuilding the infrastructure
in Iraq 41 51 3 3 2
b. helping establish a new government
in Iraq 39 55 4 1 1
c. maintaining civil order in Iraq until
a new government is established 45 49 4 1 1
This kind of data provides considerable support for OxBlog's earlier argument that the 'unauthorized' invasion of Iraq would not and has not done much damage to the United Nations. Also consider the following results, this time from the Gallup poll:
How important do you think it is for the U.S. to restore good relations with France, Germany and other western nations that opposed U.S. military action in Iraq -- very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all?

Very important 51%, Somewhat important 24%, Not too important 11%, Not important at all 12%, No opinion 2%.
What this shows is just how resilient the transatlantic relationship is. At least on one side of the pond, the public recognizes that the community values which unites the democratic West is far more important than than the temporary conflict that has divided it. As this pundit once observed,
In time, the current Euro-American rift will become yet another memorial to the unprecedented flexibility of alliances between democratic nations. It was that flexibility that ensured our victory in the Cold War, and which will ensure our victory in the war on terror.




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