OxBlog

Thursday, April 17, 2003

# Posted 1:57 AM by Patrick Belton  

ONE OUT FOR THE AXIS...BUT HOW WILL IT PLAY IN TEHRAN?: Mixed metaphor. So sue me. Switching regions now to the mid-east (surprised?), an important signal coming out of Iran nowadays may well be an interview by former president Rafsanjani (via MEMRI), in which the conservative leader suggests Iran can follow a more pragmatic policy of accomodation toward the U.S. without compromising the ideals of the Islamic revolution. He also indicates that the traditionally conservative Expediency Council, which he chairs, may be willing to take action on the issue (thereby bypassing the at any rate reformist Majils, but perhaps with a higher chance of carrying the acquiescence of Supreme Leader 'Ali Khamenei).

One particularly apropos quote which captures the tenor of the interview is this one: "Our ideology is flexible. We can choose our expediency on the basis of Islam. Still, to put the country in jeopardy on the grounds that we are acting on an Islamic basis is not at all Islamic."

Rafsanjani's statements likely reflect a tentative pro-U.S. probe on the part of Iran's conservative establishment. If this is the case, then it was undoubtedly triggered by the fall of Baghdad, and a subsequent recalculation of Iran's international position by at least a portion of the mullahtocracy. If the Bush administration can parlay its toppling of the tyrant of Tikrit into a more pro-western line by Tehran (and an end to Iran's support for Hizbollah, worldwide meddling, and terrorization of dissenting Iranian emigres) - and that's still a big if - then chalk it up as two important wins for the Wolfowitz crowd.
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