# Posted 12:58 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

RIGHT SAID FRED: I like hearing what Fred Barnes has to say, but I don't often agree with it. This time, however, he has hit the nail right on the head:

The president will be under enormous pressure from Europeans, Middle East leaders, and top advisers in Washington to withdraw American troops and civilian officials from Iraq within months, not years. He shouldn't. The military occupation of Japan after World War II lasted seven years, and Japan is homogenous, not divided as Iraq is among three often hostile ethnic groups. American forces won't need to stay that long, but it will take at least a year, maybe two or more, to restore order, foster a viable economy, and establish democratic institutions with roots deep enough to survive.

Barnes might have added that the pro-withdrawal voices will insist again and again that with each passing day, more and more Iraqis will come to view the American presence and an unjust and imperial one. Unless there is hard evidence to back up such claims, however, one should regard them with the same distrust as one did the premature declarations that the people of Iraq had no interest in an American-led liberation.

What I expect is that Iraqis' reactions to the occupation will be conditioned on the success of the Coalition's reconstruction efforts and its willingness to cooperate with local leaders. No doubt there will be some degree of growing discomfort with the American presence. No proud nation wants to be constantly reminded of its dependence on more powerful friends. But if democratic governments emerge at the local and provinicial levels and are complemented by a reasonably competent bureaucracies in the capital, then Iraqis will accept the postponement of their return to full sovereignty.

Finally, I am very glad to know that an influential conservative such as Fred Barnes is committed to an occupation that will last long enough to establish the viability of democratic government in Iraq. In light of my research into the Reagan administration's democracy promotion policies, I have long been concerned that conservatives would pay lip service to democratization while disavowing it in practice. (I know JVL disagrees with my interpretation of that administrations' intentions, but we have agreed to disagree.)

When the current administration began to talk about democracy promotion while refusing to provide any details about the postwar settlement, I became rather suspicious. In contrast, Josh had more faith in Condi & Co. (even if it was motivated in part by his schoolboy crush on Ms. Rice.)

In time, I have come around to Josh's point of view (on the democracy issue, not the crush issue). Ever since the President openly committed himself to a democratic order in his February 26th speech at AEI, I have been willing to trust the administration on this point. So far, it has been doing an admirable job. Here's to more of the same.

PS I disagree with everything in Barnes' editorial except for the passage I cited. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion