OxBlog

Sunday, May 04, 2003

# Posted 8:48 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

THE GOOD ISLAMIC STATE: Today, the NYT offers up a long profile of the Iraqi exiles chosen by the Pentagon to advise the occupation government. The article focuses on whether or not Paul Wolfowitz's ideological commitments have led him to assemble a team of secularist democrats who are out of touch with the profoundly religious Iraqi mainstream.

The article itself is well worth reading, even if it is a variation on the classic theme of Americans-impose-their-values-on-other-cultures-they-know-nothing-about. While there is no question that America might be better served by having representative abroad who are more familiar with local cultures, I often wonder whether focusing on this issue so intensely directs journalists' attention away from other trends that may have a greater impact on the future of Iraq.

First and foremost, there seems to be very little attention paid to what exactly 'Islamic fundamentalism' is. Given that most experts identify it as the principal threat to democratic reforms both in Iraq and throughout the Middle East, there should be a wealth of information available about it.

In a recent WaPo poll (one which I criticized heavily on other grounds), respondents were asked "Do you think the United States should or should not allow a fundamentalist Islamic government to be established in Iraq?" 39% percent said 'should', while 47% said 'should not'.

Those respondents who answered 'should' were then asked "What if [a fundamentalist government] wins an open, democratic election? In that case do you think the United States should or should not allow a fundamentalist Islamic government to be established in Iraq?" 50% said 'should', while 46% said 'should not'. In other words, half of those who initially opposed having a fundamentalist government would accept if it were elected.

Those who intially accepted the rise of an Islamic government were asked "What if it demands that all United States forces leave Iraq? In that case do you think the United States should or should not allow a fundamentalist Islamic government to be established in Iraq?" 59% still supported such a government, while 35% did not.

I found these results especially interesting, since I get asked so often how OxDem would react to the establishment of an Islamic fundamentalist government in Baghdad. Unfortunately, I don't have a good answer to this question just yet, since I am still trying to figure certain things out.

First of all, what is the difference between an 'Islamic' and a 'fundamentalist' state? Reading the papers, one gets the sense that a fundamentalist state is one in which the political order is an extension of Islamic law and in which Muslim clerics have a dominant political role. In contrast, an Islamic state may be something like the Christian republics of Europe where there is an official church but its presence is not all that important.

In light of the divisions between Sunni Kurds, Sunni Arabs and Shi'ite Arabs in Iraq, the establishment of an Iraqi government with a token commitment to Islam may be the best way of protecting the rights and privileges of all such groups concerned. Of course, such an outcome depends on the leaders of such groups recognizing that tolerance is in their own self-interest, an outcome one can hardly take for granted.

So let's assume for a moment that a strong 'fundamentalist' impulse gains hold throughout Iraq. Are fundamentalism and democracy mutually exclusive? First of all, I sense that there is no one thing that goes by the name of 'fundamentalism'. For most Americans, fundamentalism refers to beliefs such as those of Hamas and Al Qaeda. But fundamentalism also includes the reigning ideologies in Iran and Saudi Arabia.

While one might say that these four share a certain preference for authoritarian politics, I think it is safe to assume that all four have very distinct theological foundations and particular views of how the church and the state should interact. Moreover, to what degree are such fundamentalists' authoritarian impulses inherent in their beliefs, as opposed to being an extension of their self-interest?

I think this is an especially important question since one often hears that there are nascent political movements throughout the Middle East that are both firmly Islamic and firmly democratic. Does the minimal influence of such groups reflect their repression by dictatorial governments, or is there an uncomfortable tension between their Islamic and democratic views?

One might say that it all comes back to Algeria. Whenever one talks about the prospects for democracy promotion in the Arab world, the first question one gets is "What about Algeria? They had elections. The radicals won and a brutal civil war followed."

It would be interesting to know what Algeria's fundamentalists would have done had the military allowed them to hold the reins of government. Would they have revoked the constitution and imposed an Islamic dictatorship? As critics often say, Islamic democracy is about having "one man, one vote, one time."

One argument that Josh has often made (at the pub, not on OxBlog as far as I know), is that fundamentalists governments can often exploit anti-imperial or anti-Western sentiment to win an initial victory at the polls, but cannot command much support later on if their policies reflect the interests of a radical minority. Thus, the best way to deal with Islamic governments that are "too" Islamic is to give them their and let them fall on their face.

As Josh recognizes, the main challenge to pursuing such a strategy is to ensure that such a government respects the basic political and civil rights of the opposition. While that may not have been possible in Algeria, Iraq is a very different case, given the strong American presence on the ground.

Given how much talk there has been about promoting democracy in Iraq, it wouldn't surprise me if all the major parties pledged to respect the constitution once in office. What may be more important is the degree to which voters demand evidence of politicians' good faith on this issue.

In other words, will Shi'ites vote for a Shi'ite party regardless of its stance on democracy? Or will voters demand credible assurances of a such commitment? Or will multiple Shi'ite parties emerge some of which are committed to democracy rather than others? Will the formation of such parties reflect religious differences between their founders, or political ones?

Unsurprisingly, I don't have answers to these questions. Having taken not one single course on Islam or the Middle East, it is an area I have to learn about by reading the papers. If I had time I would read books, but who has the stamina to do independent research at the same time that one is working on a doctoral thesis? (Don't answer that question.)

I guess what I'm trying to say is that polls which ask whether or not "the United States should or should not allow a fundamentalist Islamic government to be established in Iraq" can only be meaningful in a situation where one assumes that fundamentalism is a monolithic sort of thing. But it isn't. And with any luck, more and more Americans (especially journalists) will begin to recognize that.
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