Monday, December 29, 2003
# Posted 3:17 PM by Ariel David Adesnik
All I can add is that the outstanding soldiers responsible for finding Saddam did exactly what Americans are supposedly unable to do: they used common sense and cold logic to understand the inner workings of a foreign culture and the behavior of clandestine guerrillas.
It wasn't just a handful of exceptional soldiers who accomplished this impressive objective, however. The analysts who tracked down Saddam depended on the intelligence produced by countless other soldiers through interrogations, informant accounts and other methods. Thus, it is the United States armed forces as an institution that has demonstrated its adaptability to foreign cultural settings. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
# Posted 2:56 PM by Ariel David Adesnik
# Posted 2:31 PM by Ariel David Adesnik
First, Pirates of the Caribbean. There are of lot of films with brilliant special effects and immaculate historical settings. But Pirates stands out from all the rest because Johnny Depp turns in one of the great comedic performances of our time.
Second, Finding Nemo. Another triumph for Disney & Pixar. While other studios struggle to find human actors with real emotions, Disney & Pixar give us fish who express complex thoughts and emotions in language simple enough for children to understand.
For more on the best of Hollywood in 2003, check out this essay by the NYT's A.O. Scott, as well as the attached Top 10 lists by each of the Times' film critics. More amusing, however, is the NYT critics discussion of the worst films of the year.
All in all, I think the three NYT Top 10 lists are pretty good. Naturally, I wish I'd had the chance to see all of the films that Mitchell, Scott, and Holden did. If I went to theater every night instead of once a month, there might be more favorites on my list. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
# Posted 2:16 PM by Ariel David Adesnik
According to Dan, the NYT has quietly admitted that Halliburton isn't up to anything nefarious in Iraq. Well, I guess without Cheney as CEO the Halliburton boys just aren't as conspiratorial and malicious as they used to be.
Also, in case you missed it, Andrew handed out his annual awards for public hyperbole just before heading off for Christmas vacation. My favorite is from Bill O'Reilly:
"Eminem may be the 'people's choice,' but he is as harmful to America as any al Qaeda fanatic."Coming soon -- rhyming fatwas. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
# Posted 1:58 PM by Ariel David Adesnik
For all of you hidebound traditionalists who think blogs should focus on issues of actual significance, take a look at Glenn's posts on bias in the French and German media as well as anti-blog stirrings on this side of the pond. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
Sunday, December 28, 2003
# Posted 11:40 PM by Ariel David Adesnik
As Voltaire might have said, this is the best of all possible worlds. Dan's brilliance and even-handedness deserve the kind of audience that only the Dish or Instapundit could provide.
As a quick perusal of the blogosphere ecosystem shows, the most popular blogs on both left and right tend to be intensely partisan, often to the point of being shrill. (Drum and Volokh are exceptions.)
There is, of course, no inherent virtue in moderation. In fact, an adversarial approach to political debate is indispensable to democratic dialogue. Nonetheless, an active partisan debate hardly ensures that all relevant perspectives will make it onto the table.
From my experience online, I'd say that Dan Drezner is exactly the kind of principled moderate who brings to the fore both facts and issues that both left and right tend to ignore. With any luck, those of Andrew's readers who get to know Dan this coming week will make his blog a regular stop on their daily tour of the web. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
# Posted 11:15 PM by Ariel David Adesnik
Since oil is a commodity, it doesn't matter where you get it from. There is a global market for the stuff, so even if we got all of ours from Mexico, events in the Middle East would still determine the price.
In theory, if we had enough oil here in the US to provide for domestic demand, the government could force producers to sell below market price. Of course, that is probably neither a good idea nor one George Bush has any interest in taking.
PS Kudos to Matt for the new photo on his homepage. I didn't think the whole unshaven Josh Marshall-esque thing worked for Matt anyway. I think the new progressive yuppie look is much better. Of course, the real test is whether Matt starts getting more play from his groupies. ;) (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
# Posted 10:27 PM by Ariel David Adesnik
There is also a well-deserved essay on UN troubleshooter Sergio Vieira De Mello. Unfortunately, the essay itself is a multilateralist fluffnut rather than an effective tribute to Mr. Vieira's talents. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
# Posted 10:01 PM by Ariel David Adesnik
While we're on the issue of character, I think it's worth mentioning that documents given to the NYT show that presidential politics were, in fact, behind Howard Dean's decision to seal his gubernatorial records in Vermont. While Dean admitted as much last January, he then described his admission as a bit of unserious humor just last week.
What is it with this guy? Is he really so opportunistic that he can't remember what he says from one month to the next? (Cf. NAFTA) While one could dismiss all these examples as nothing more than minor gaffes, I think that they will hurt Dean because so much of his support stems from resentment of how George Bush sometimes plays fast and loose with the facts. If he doesn't occupy the moral high ground, Dean will have a hard time presenting himself as an alternative to Bush.
Finally, the WaPo has a fair and balanced assessment of the former Vermont governor up on its editorial page. The WaPo hopes that the old DLC/mainline Democrat who governed Vermont will re-emerge once the anti-war activist on the campaign trail wraps up the nomination.
Strangely, Matt Yglesias suggests that the WaPo's preference for a DLC candidate rather than a McGovernite demonstrates that there is no such thing as liberal media bias. If the WaPo endorses Bush in November, Matt might have a point.
UPDATE: Another day, another Deanism. Unsurprisingly, Dean has already issued an apology explaining why he isn't the sort of McGovernite as his initial statement made him out to be. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
Saturday, December 27, 2003
# Posted 2:41 PM by Patrick Belton
After asking "some young people", he arrives at a research conclusion: "Saddam Hussein, a dapper dictator in his salad days, was a metrosexual but emerged from his hole a pure heterosexual. Tim Russert is not a metrosexual, George Stephanopoulos is, Bill Clinton is an omnisexual, Ann Coulter is a psychosexual and Strom Thurmond was just a pig." (5) opinions -- Add your opinion
# Posted 12:52 PM by Ariel David Adesnik
Regarding the President’s statements on who we will spend our money with, W speaks for the soldiers when he says none want to have to guard the ELF contractors and their supply lines reeking of Brie, and unless the Germans come in to build breweries they can stay home too. In addition approx. 40-50% of the work force for our defense industry served in uniform. They are a vital part of our capabilities and not corporate beggars.Agreed. I reject the simplistic arguments of all those who portray defense contractors as malicious parasites (even if major reforms in the military procurement process are needed.) Still, the issue in Iraq is what's best for the people of Iraq and the struggle for democracy. Moreover, American companies should have no problem competing in an open marketplace that includes French and German corporations.
On a different note, MK asks
Why should the United States give U.S. taxpayer money to countries who:First of all, some hypocrisy on the part of the French and Germans may have to be tolerated in the best interest of Iraqi democracy. Perhaps more importantly, there is a big difference between French and German corporations and the French and German governments. It is not clear to me why punishing the former is a particularly effective way of threatening the latter.
On a related note, B argues that
[Russia, France and Germany] wereGiven that no more than a small share of US contracts would go to Russian, French, and German corporations, I'm not sure how much leverage they would provide in terms of pressuring those governments to forgive Iraqi debt. Besides, my understanding is that the governments of our nominal allies are the ones who hold Iraqi debt. Why would they let go of it in exchange for payments to the private sector?
While there were many more readers who wrote in with well-written and well-thought out comments on this issue, most of their main arguments have been brought up by the three letter-writers whose arguments are excerpted above. So thanks to everyone who took the time to write in. Your thoughts are always appreciated.
PS For some good blogospheric criticism of my arguments, check out this post from Steve Sturm. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
# Posted 12:30 PM by Ariel David Adesnik
As demonstrated by the case of Keiko, aka "Free Willy", some creatures do not have an inherent desire for freedom. Animal rights activists insisted that Keiko should be "free", rather than enjoying the benefits of a benevolent dictatorship at any one of a thousand aquariums that would've been proud to have him.
Even though millions of dollars were spent on preparing Keiko for freedom, he never abandoned his desire for human company. According to psychologist Clive Wynne
A love of animals is no bad thing, but when one beast receives more resources than all but the tiniest fraction of the world's wealthiest people, we should at least stop and think for a moment...Hence, let it be clear from this moment forward that OxBlog is a supporter of human rights.
Also I'd like to take this opportunity to respond to those who criticized me for taking the anti-democratic side in the most recent China-Taiwan dispute. I would've responded earlier if I hadn't been in California. Anyhow, one of the well-thought out criticisms of my post came from JH, who writes that Taiwan's
ballot proposal poses absolutely no threat to anyone, least of all China. It's utterly symbolic, and will not threaten a single citizen of MainlandJH is right that the ballot proposal is utterly symbolic. And that's exactly why there is no need for the United States to support it. It will result in no real gains for democracy on Taiwan or anywhere else. All it will accomplish is the provocation of mainland China.
Another JH writes that
Chen is a politician. Fortunately, he is not an opportunist, except when it comes to democracy. Not a bad thing. During his tenure, Chen has certainly erred and just as certainly deepened the roots of democracy here in Taiwan. Again, this is not at all bad. Here and now, the defensive referendum is certainly a hot topic and certainly worth examination because the referendum will be the start of a much needed reexamination of the status quo. That is something the powers in Beijing just cannot allow and America must insist upon if we are to follow up on President Bush’s Forward Diplomacy initiative.Why is the referendum something that "the powers in Beijing just cannot allow"? Because it is a fundamental threat to their hold on power. In abstract terms, that is a good thing. But there is no excuse for risking massive bloodshed when other avenues of reform exist. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
# Posted 12:28 AM by Ariel David Adesnik
# Posted 12:15 AM by Ariel David Adesnik
In contrast to most big media round-ups, this one describes both the limits as well as the growth of fundamentalist influence in Pakistan. Wisely, author Barry Bearak decides that Pakistan is better described than generalized about.
For some additional commentary from a gay Pakistani blogger, click here. Best of luck to all of those whose families and communities aren't ready to accept them for who they are. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
Friday, December 26, 2003
# Posted 11:59 PM by Ariel David Adesnik
# Posted 11:10 PM by Ariel David Adesnik
According to an unnamed American consultant in Baghdad,
“The only way we can win is to go unconventional. We’re going to have to play their game. Guerrilla versus guerrilla. Terrorism versus terrorism. We’ve got to scare the Iraqis into submission.”In spite of assembling a number of similar quotes from unnamed sources, Hersh doesn't have much evidence to back up his claim that the United States is about to abandon the civilian-friendly moral high ground.
The low point in Hersh's article is his uncritical quotation of charlatan-slash-turncoat Scott Ritter. While that sort of lapse is noteworthy by itself, the contents of Ritter's quote are especially amusing:
“The high-profile guys around Saddam were the murafaqin, his most loyal companions, who could stand next to him carrying a gun...but now he’s gone to a different tier—the tribes...Well, evidently someone got us inside whoever it is was guarding Saddam. Now, the fact that we got Saddam doesn't disprove anything Hersh is trying to say. But his willingness to play up worthless sources like Ritter demonstrates how committed he is to portraying the occupation as a failure. Thus, when things go right, committed pessimists like Hersh find it hard to explain how that was possible when we were supposed to be stuck in a quagmire. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
# Posted 10:45 PM by Ariel David Adesnik
What I probably resented most about the film was how much it was hyped. This film was supposed to be the Empire Strikes Back of the Ring trilogy, the installment whose narrative depth matched its techincal achievements.
Instead, we got another Return of the Jedi. The loyal audience is there, so why bother being creative? This was a miniseries, not a cinematic epic. At some point in the third hour, the audience at Loews' 34th St. Theater realized that it could dispense with all the pseudo-profundity and simply cheer after each improbably brave deed performed by one of the lovable heroes. Instead of medieval saga, this was a 1950's matinee version of WWII.
There were strong points, however. As the NYT pointed out, Gollum is brilliant. He is a landmark in the synthesis of acting and technology. What the NYT didn't say is that Gollum is literally the only character in the whole film who isn't two-dimensional.
(Note to Chafetz: That was joke. Gollum is literally one of many characters in the film who is two-dimensional and figuratively the only one who is three-dimensional.)
So there. Send me your hate mail. Tell me I've ruined your Christmas. Call me a film snob. Just don't make me sit through that movie again. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
# Posted 10:23 PM by Ariel David Adesnik
Her argument is extremely persuasive. Why should black Americans search for a mythical African past when they have so much to celebrate about their American heritage?
After all, what is more quintessentially American than a downtrodden people's legendary struggle to win those rights reserved for all mankind by the Declaration of Independence? As the NYT op-ed notes,
Indeed, their [i.e. African-Americans'] goals — self-determination, individual rights, social mobility, the franchise, majority rule, religious freedom — had little counterpart in the African tradition. They demanded their American birthright. They panned for gold. They pioneered the West. They educated their children in Europe. Few returned to Africa.Black Americans have much to resent about their treatment throughout the centuries. Yet their struggles have defined what it is to be American for all of us, both black and white (and every other color). That is something we can all celebrate.
(0) opinions -- Add your opinion
# Posted 10:10 PM by Ariel David Adesnik
The positive effect of that R&R was lost, however, when a traffic jam on the freeway made me miss my flight back to Boston on the 23rd. I then spent six hours in the airport, took a red-eye flight back to Logan International, and crashed into bed at 7:30 the next morning. I got up at 4, did some laundry, then headed out to South Station to get a train to New York.
I got home to family just before midnight on Christmas Eve. If I weren't Jewish, it would've been a very emotional moment. Regardless, I'm glad to be back online and ready for 2004.
(0) opinions -- Add your opinion
# Posted 4:32 PM by Patrick Belton
# Posted 2:56 PM by Patrick Belton
In Ireland, the feast of protomartyr St Stephen marks the day on which children traipse about from door to door collecting money to cover the burial expenses of a newly deceased bird, singing "The wren, the wren is the king of all birds / On St Stephen's Day, he got caught in the furze / So up with the kettle and down with the pan / And give us a penny for to bury the wren." (The day, in Irish, is known both as Lá le Stiofán and Lá an Dreoilín - the wren's day.) Wrens winged their way to a prominent role in druidic, perhaps even neolithic, ritual and augury. As the king of all birds, they were thought to be greater than even the eagle - because while an eagle could fly higher than all the other birds, a wren perched on an eagle's head could fly higher. (Hey, who said Bronze Age Celts didn't have a sense of humor?) Killing the wren on St Stephen's Day, in turn, could trace either to the Elizabethan idea of Christmastide Lord of Misrule, or the medieval Mumming tradition in which a champion of darkness was killed to bring life back to the world (i.e., the winter solstice; the wren, for its part, creeps along and inside stones, presumably also to include tombs).
So in a venerable English and Irish tradition, give us a penny, if you like, to bury the wren! Josh has some worthy causes here. Hey, David and I'll even sing for you! (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
# Posted 2:15 PM by Patrick Belton
It's a beautiful holiday, and in its use of the menoraic Kinara and its extension over many days it bears striking similarities with Hanukkah - evoking the historically strong emotional and symbolic relationship between Jews and blacks in the United States, dating from the prophetic influence in spirituals and black homiletics to the experience of shoulder-to-shoulder struggle beside each other during the Freedom rides and the struggle for voting rights in the American south. So we wish you Kwanzaa yenu iwe heri!: Happy Kwanzaa! (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
Thursday, December 25, 2003
# Posted 1:02 PM by Patrick Belton
North American Aerospace Defense Command therefore provides warning of missile and air attack against the United States and Canada, safeguards North American air sovereignty, provides air defense forces for defense against an air attack...and tracks Santa Claus. In the spirit of full disclosure, NORAD officials said the command has declassified photos of Santa from the past 40 years, which are now available on the website. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
Wednesday, December 24, 2003
# Posted 8:22 PM by Patrick Belton
First, though, a few wintry-themed quotations for Christmas Eve, ranging from the jocular to the profound. Happy Christmas Eve, and enjoy!
Winter is icummen in,(0) opinions -- Add your opinion
Monday, December 22, 2003
# Posted 9:05 PM by Patrick Belton
I'm now en route to Alaska, via first Newark, then Minneapolis (which affords a panoply of rich opportunities to the traveller, to include coffee, shaving, and bathroom facilities), and afterwards onward to Anchorage and then Fairbanks. Will I be taking a blogging break from the Arctic Circle, you ask? Fuhggedaboudit. I'll be seeing you all from there. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
Friday, December 19, 2003
# Posted 2:48 AM by Ariel David Adesnik
A certain gentelman on his way into said parking lot stopped his car alongside mine and informed me of the prohibition against turning left. His exact words (made audible at a very high decibel level) were: "No left turn, you f***ing idiot."
There is no moral to this story. Just that mean people suck.
(0) opinions -- Add your opinion
Thursday, December 18, 2003
# Posted 6:44 PM by Patrick Belton
# Posted 6:38 PM by Patrick Belton
UPDATE: Looks like we're back up. Rene's no doubt relieved.... (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
# Posted 9:47 AM by Patrick Belton
# Posted 9:11 AM by Patrick Belton
# Posted 8:47 AM by Patrick Belton
Wednesday, December 17, 2003
Tuesday, December 16, 2003
# Posted 4:09 PM by Ariel David Adesnik
But for the moment, like the hip-hop superstar I am, I thought I should show that I have street cred because I play by my own rules. More bling-bling to come... (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
# Posted 5:55 AM by Patrick Belton
Monday, December 15, 2003
# Posted 9:18 AM by Patrick Belton
# Posted 7:05 AM by Patrick Belton
According to a UAV road map from America's Department of Defence, by 2012 UAVs the size of F-16 fighter aircraft are likely to exist.....By 2020, the Pentagon estimates that one-third of America's combat planes will be robotic....The world's smallest UAV is currently the 15cm-long, electrically powered, Black Widow. It can fly for 30 minutes and download live colour video to the ground via its onboard camera. Many such craft are being developed for “over the hill” work, when soldiers need scouts in dangerous areas....The biggest breakthrough in civil aviation, though, would be the invention of the aerial equivalent of the motor car.Kudos to Bagehot's newspaper for a systematic exploration of the military, urban studies, and environmental implications of what portends to be a revolutionary new technology. And it is difficult not to end this post by quoting the piece's most memorable line: "There is a joke in the airline industry that the future crew of an airliner will consist of a pilot and a dog: The pilot's job is to watch all the computers, and the dog's job is to bite the pilot if he tries to touch anything." Can I assume from this that the days of British Airways stewardesses are therefore blissfully limited? (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
# Posted 2:40 AM by Ariel David Adesnik
Actually, I'm out here to do some research at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library and take part in a mini-reunion with five of my close friends from college.
But tonight, to kick off the festivities, I attended a lavish dinner at Chez CalPundit. It was a sumptous Italian banquet for which I owe Kevin and Mary Ann many thanks. I also had the chance to converse with the creme de la creme of the blogosphere, including Pejman, Robert Tagorda (as well as his lovely wife Noemie) and Mark Kleiman.
The conversation was hard to match. It isn't everyday that I get to converse with so many well-read, intelligent and articulate people -- all around one table.
The only less-than-perfect thing about California is the 56k connection I'm blogging from. If I find something faster, I'll let you know. Until then, expect no more than a few judicious words from this third of OxBlog. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
Sunday, December 14, 2003
# Posted 7:01 PM by Patrick Belton
# Posted 2:40 PM by Patrick Belton
It took about 30 seconds for THE rumor to spread through our compound. THE rumor, if true, would be the biggest story in Iraq: we had Saddam.(0) opinions -- Add your opinion
# Posted 1:26 PM by Patrick Belton
# Posted 7:08 AM by Patrick Belton
Saturday, December 13, 2003
# Posted 7:20 PM by Patrick Belton
# Posted 12:38 PM by Patrick Belton
In the pages of the Atlantic, Harvard's Samantha Power describes life in Mugabe-ville, Tobias Wolff examines his new novel on East Coast boarding-school life, and P.J. O'Rourke drinks his way through the War to Free Iraq. Over at TNR, James Wood looks at religious comedy in Erasmus and Alberti, Anne Hollander reviews Virginia Postrel's book on aesthetics in America, and on the TNR website our friend Dan Drezner writes on the unfolding future strategy of the developing world in global politics. And at the Standard, Bill Kristol, Bob Kagan, and Gary Schmitt talk China and Taiwan policy, while Dave Skinner does his bit in sticking up for Texans.
At Slate, Steve Chapman says America's elderly have gotten spoiled, Joel Simon takes aim at the Rwanda genocide tribunal, and Jeremy Khan writes from the Ivory Coast. In Policy Review, Marc Plattner points out that the EU constitutional debate is thus far fairly silent on democracy, Kevin O'Connell and Robert Tomes write on reforming intelligence for the war on terror, and Reginald Dale says we're missing the point in Europe.
In the pages of Foreign Affairs, Evan Medeiros and Taylor Fravel marvel at China's newfound diplomatic acumen, Josh Micah Marshall reviews Daalder and Lindsay's book on President Bush's foreign affairs revolution, and the editors run a contemporary piece by Allen Dulles on the Allied reconstruction of Germany.
Moving over to Britain, Sylvia Plath continues her stellar media year with an appearance in the TLS. In the Prospect, Lord Owen analyses Cabinet government and Michael Lind sticks up for Texans. Over at the Spectator, Rachel Polonsky calls on the West to stop flattering Putin, Stephen Glover criticises the dumbing down of the BBC, and Peter Jones says Epicurus would want you to be virtuous this Christmas. LRB shines as usual with pieces on terrorism and sea transport, underworlds during WWII, and a criticism of US North Korea policy. And finally, in the New York Times book review, Magdalen fellow Oliver Taplin remembers the Greek gods, and Alfred Kazin remember's America's, perceiving American literature as having embarked on a centuries-long search for an ever-receding God.
Happy reading! Caveat lector! (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
# Posted 12:24 AM by Ariel David Adesnik
# Posted 12:21 AM by Ariel David Adesnik
# Posted 12:09 AM by Ariel David Adesnik
# Posted 12:06 AM by Ariel David Adesnik
# Posted 12:01 AM by Ariel David Adesnik
The article also talks about how low pay, shoddy equipment and ethnic tensions have led to serious problems, and that makes a lot more intuitive sense. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
Friday, December 12, 2003
# Posted 11:27 PM by Ariel David Adesnik
# Posted 11:20 PM by Ariel David Adesnik
# Posted 11:09 PM by Ariel David Adesnik
There is something touchingly innocent about the French aspiration to promote tolerance by imposing conformity. Perhaps Tocqueville should have cast a glance homewards as he warned his American hosts about the dangers associated with the tyranny of the majority.
While the average American man-in-the-street could have told M. Chirac that religious repression only promotes resentful backlash, there is a more subtle point that American might not appreciate because they take religious toleration for granted. When I spent a summer in Germany a number of years ago, the papers there were filled with a similar debate about Muslim headscarves and the effort of some school or other to ban them. (Characteristically for German federalism, the headscarf debate arose out of a local ordnance, rather than a central government plan a la francaise.)
As I read more about the debate, one of the most interesting points that came out was how the woman in question who had been asked to remove her headscarf was actually a very progressive Muslim who favored both greater equality for women and greater integration of Islam and secular society. Such beliefs were not at all accidential. After all, who but a progressive Muslim woman would prefer to work in a German institution rather than a Muslim one?
I suspect that in France, a similar trend exists. The girls in public schools who wear headscarves are probably the ones most likely to learn to love and respect French civilization. If taught that French civilization is willing to respect them as well, such women would have tremendous potential to share French ideals with those members of their families and communities who are not so enlightened.
Perhaps it should not come as a surprise that France has a resentful, violent and poorly integrated Muslim immigrant community whereas Muslim immigrants in the United States seem to be thriving no less than Jews, Hindus, or Chinese -- and giving back to their host country.
In other cultural news, the Academie Francaise, the body charged with protecting the French language from Anglo-American pollution, has finally reached the letter 'R' after six decades devoted to producing the definitive French-language dictionary.
(0) opinions -- Add your opinion
# Posted 9:35 AM by Patrick Belton
On other fronts - Josh, count me in! (especially if I can still get charter member privileges.....I can think of one or two yummy kosher and halal joints where I'd love to have a discount card....) (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
# Posted 7:33 AM by Patrick Belton
As an analytical exercise, future-forecasting requires looking both at trends (i.e., it is 2020, and America, Europe, and Japan are struggling to maintain a decent quality of life for masses of elderly people, China is facing a choice between belligerence and joining Western nations as an economic superpower, and India, Brazil, and Indonesia are becoming emerging powers) and at wild cards (a nuclear exchange, for example, or the emergence of new technologies, or worldwide pandemics), as well as points at which U.S. policy could attempt to influence these trends. Global Trends 2015 and Global Trends 2010 have already been released, and make for provocative (and recommended) reading. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
# Posted 6:38 AM by Patrick Belton
# Posted 12:17 AM by Ariel David Adesnik
But all of those who are against the Bush administration's wrongheaded decision also seem to be missing something. The first question that should come to mind when thinking about the contracts is not "Is this good for the United States?" but "Is this good for the people of Iraq?" If a French or German company can generate more electricity or pump more oil, then that is what the Iraqi people deserve. (Somehow I doubt that Russian corporations can contribute all that much to Iraqi well-being.)
The people of Iraq have suffered enough for the crimes of Saddam Hussein and shouldn't have to suffer at all for the pettiness of Chirac, Schroeder or Bush. The people of Iraq suffered through more than a decade of devastating sanctions for the sake of Western security. Now we owe them.
Frankly, I am appalled at the President's statement that
"Our people risked their lives. Friendly coalition folks risked their lives, and therefore the contracting is going to reflect that, and that's what the U.S. taxpayers expect."Those are the words of a corporate mercenary. Those are the words of a man without vision. America earns it wealth from the creativity of its entrepreneurs, not the blood of its soldiers. Many European nations supported the invasion of Iraq because they share our vision of global security, not because they wanted a handout.
Moreover, why should an American corporation benefit from the sacrifices of an American soldier? The 82nd Airborne was fighting for freedom and security, not for Halliburton. Thus, the President owes it to the 82nd and to all of America's fighting men and women to what is in the interest of freedom and security. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
Thursday, December 11, 2003
# Posted 11:52 PM by Ariel David Adesnik
# Posted 11:42 PM by Ariel David Adesnik
# Posted 11:36 PM by Ariel David Adesnik
# Posted 11:31 PM by Ariel David Adesnik
So now it's time for the occupation authority to wake up and recognize that local elections are the way to go, with a national poll following later. It isn't a new idea, folks. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
# Posted 10:27 AM by Patrick Belton
Wednesday, December 10, 2003
# Posted 11:29 PM by Ariel David Adesnik
# Posted 11:04 PM by Ariel David Adesnik
# Posted 10:47 PM by Ariel David Adesnik
Today, however, the tables are turned. In a masthead editorial, the WaPo is blasting President Bush for siding with China in opposing Taiwanese President Chen Shui-Bian's proposed referendum on independence. As the WaPo would have it,
Yesterday President Bush essentially placed the United States on the side of the dictators who promise war, rather than the democrats whose threat is a ballot box.Admittedly, having to side with the Chinese is never pleasant. However, the proposed referendum would achieve nothing more than sticking a finger in China's eye without doing anything to enhance democracy in Taiwan.
Frankly, the referendum seems like a cynical attempt by President Chen to make China talk tough so that he can win a second term by posing as the Taiwanese David standing up to the Chinese Goliath. That's just reckless, so there's no reason the US should support the idea. It would be better for both Taiwan and the United States if Bush acts as a peacemaker so that if China starts trouble, the United States can both side with Taiwan and take the moral high ground. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
# Posted 10:36 PM by Ariel David Adesnik
Unfortunately, the article perpetuates the WaPo/NYT habit of providing vague but menacing indications of Shi'ite attitudes towards democracy. Still, one has to wonder whether the economic revitalization of the Shi'ite spiritual capital is one of the reasons that Shi'ite have shown no interest in joining the Ba'athist struggle against the American occupation. Insteads of hearts and minds, this may be a case of hearts and pocketbooks.
Also in Iraq: The Americans have decided to let the Iraqis prosecute their own war criminals and the Europeans aren't happy about it. While the Europeans' preference for an international tribunal has merit to it, it is somewhat ironic that they constantly warn the United States about imposing its will on Iraq but then turn around and want to do the same. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
# Posted 12:20 PM by Ariel David Adesnik
First, I just can't figure out why DoD would do something as transparently vindictive as barring French, Russian and German firms from bidding on reconstruction contracts. Whatever financial benefit comes from this will be more than outweighed by the storm of domestic criticism it will bring down on the administration (not to mention foreign reaction.)
Besides, those who get the contracts are allowed to subcontract out to French, Russian and German firms. Thus, the financial impact of the ban will be minimal despite its massive political costs.
Moreover, awarding contracts to American firms doesn't seem so smart when there are continuing reports that Halliburton is swindling the administration by overcharging for imported fuel.
Coming from an administration that is usually so good about looking for its own self-interest, it is hard to know why no one seems to be watching out for Iraq as the election approaches and voters show more and more concern about the lack of visible progress on the ground.
The best I can figure is that the administration is so preoccupied with the military situation that it can't bother questioning the integrity of its good friends at Halliburton.
(0) opinions -- Add your opinion
# Posted 7:04 AM by Patrick Belton
Also at RAND, James Dobbins testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that the U.S. has been too slow in incorporating lessons learned into its doctrine, training, and planning, and in making use of the expertise of professionals with past experience in post-conflict situations. Dobbins also notes favourably proposals for revamping the way the US deals with post-conflict situations - tasks that are at present eschewed by both DOD and State - by the possible creation of a new government institution for the task, and the passage of an act on Goldwater/Nichols lines which would accomplish for post-conflict reconstruction and stabilization missions the clarification of responsibilities within an enduring arrangement that the Goldwater/Nichols act accomplished for the creation of unified warfighting commands.
Over at CFR, Dennis Kux and Mahnaz Ispahani write a piece on revamping South Asia policy, calling for the US to move toward a security partnership with India, and conditioning US aid to Pakistan on progress in fulfilling its nonproliferation responsibilities, denying its territory to militants, and pursuing a democratic-reformist agenda, while orientating the cast of that aid slightly away from security assistance and more toward education, projects in ethnic-Pakhto areas, and building of democratic and judicial institutions. They also call for a broader U.S. role in shepherding the de-escalation of the Kashmir conflict through expanded trade relations and confidence building measures on each side. Also in the Upper East Side, Pete Peterson chaired a task force on addressing America's image problem, recommending the administration do this through greater presidential support of public diplomacy efforts (through a PDD and creation of an interagency coordinating structure), doing more overseas polling, and taking overseas public opinion into account at an earlier stage in the policy process.
Elsewhere in think-tankery, both Brookings and CFR hosted meetings on the Geneva Accords, featuring Yossi Beilin, Yasser Abed Rabbo, and their own luminaries (and making the transcripts available online). Brookings also has a paper on revamping intelligence for homeland security tasks, and Michael O'Hanlon is spearheading an Iraq indices project, keeping track of trends in battlefield casualties, public opinion in Iraq and the U.S., reconstruction, and other facets of the reconstruction effort. AEI has hosted thoughtful events (with transcripts available online) on aiding democrating reform in Iran, Leo Strauss's perspectives on modern politics, and the future of Franco-American relations. And Carnegie has pieces on Arab democracy, NAFTA ten years after, and how Chechnya has affected Russian foreign, domestic, and military policy. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
Tuesday, December 09, 2003
# Posted 10:53 PM by Ariel David Adesnik
# Posted 10:25 PM by Ariel David Adesnik
Below Fareed's column, the Post ran this op-ed by Robert Bernstein, a founder of Human Rights Watch. In it, Bernstein discusses the media's tragic lack of attention to massive slave labor camps and widespread police brutality in China. Running alongside Zakaria's column, it makes a devastating point about the moral confusion of those who applaud Hu Jintao while lashing out George Bush. (Greg Djerejian made the same point quite effectively a short while back.)
While criticism of George Bush is certainly deserved, the intensity of the anger directed at the American President demonstrates that his critics abroad have internalized a dangerous double standard that judges aggression against dictators to be a far greater crime than the vicious abuse of millions of one's fellow citizens. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
# Posted 9:52 PM by Ariel David Adesnik
Also worth reading are Bill Kristol and Glenn Reynolds' thoughts on why Dean will be anything but the next McGovern. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
# Posted 9:16 PM by Ariel David Adesnik
A sample of FP's high-quality work includes: the best article I've read on European anti-Semitism and anti-Zionism, an in-depth look at the whether the Indian economic model is more sustainable than its Chinese counterpart, and a trenchant defense of free-trade from the myth of anti-globalization activists.
Admittedly, FP produces some duds, much like any publication. For example, its forum on post-war Iraq could've been lifted from the op-ed pages of a half-dozen newspapers. (Robert Kagan's contribution is definitely worth a look, however.)
In general, I'd say that FP does its best work when it explores in-depth those issues that newspapers can only treat anecdotally. Take the India vs. China article for example. Foreign correspondents are constantly producing spot reports that one country or the other. But they rarely compare the two. Moreover, the authors of the FP essay are well-versed in the expert literature on the subject, which journalists tend to ignore, thus reinforcing their selective perception and cultural predispositions.
In contrast, shorter essays in FP tend to provide a somewhat one-sided look at a given issue. Whereas newspaper op-eds do the same, you can generally rely on a given newspaper to run opposing opinion columns. Yet when FP runs opposing columns, it has to plan them months in advance so they aren't timely as those on the op-ed page.
On the other hand, FP needs to run short articles so that readers don't get turned off by the challenge of reading a 3,000 word article or nothing at all. Still, there are other kinds of short articles than can get readers hooked, such as FP's "Prime Numbers" and "Think Again" columns.
Finally, it's worth mentioning that FP takes a pretty firm multilateralist line on US foreign policy. This is both a product of its left-wing heritage as well as its more recent emphasis on globalization and the importance of transnational cooperation in a global era. While there's nothing wrong with taking that sort of position, it often results in FP running some less-than-insightful articles that reiterate the multilateralist conventional wisdom. (For balance, FP relies on Bob Kagan to function as the in-house neo-conservative, a responsibility he can't avoid because he's on the Carnegie payroll.)
So there you have it. FP is a damn good magazine. It isn't perfect, but it is definitely worth taking a look at everytime it hits the newsstand. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
# Posted 9:15 PM by Ariel David Adesnik
Admittedly, I didn't push all that far beyond the contents of the printed material that is already out there. Often, the interviews were most useful in terms of confirming some of the working hypotheses I had already developed. From what I can tell, the limits of human memory make it very hard for interviews to supplement the extensive public record that comes into existence thanks to the relatively transparent nature of American diplomacy. Moreover, the popularity of US-Nicaraguan relations as a subject of inquiry in the 1980s ensured that all of those I spoke with have already gone on the record multiple times with their version of events.
Interviews with those on the other side of the Cold War divide are often quite illuminating, however. The example that immediately comes to mind is Robert Kagan's interview with Sandinista military commander Humberto Ortega. Conducted shortly after the Sandinistas' fall from grace in February 1990, Kagan's interview brings out a story that was simply never told because of the limits of Nicaraguan politics and American journalism. (NB: There is no published transcript of the interview, but many of the most illuminating quotes can be found throughout Kagan's excellent work on US-Sandinista relations, entitled A Twilight Struggle.)
The second set of interviews I conducted were with Reagan administration officials and lobbyists and congressional staffers. I relied on these interviews to provide me with an introduction to some of the policies that I have not studied in as much depth as I have those of the Carter administration. I also used these interviews to broaden my range of contacts so that I can conduct a more comprehensive set of interviews when I return to Washington.
Finally, I'd like to thank two individuals who were extremely helpful and generous with their time. The first is Bruce Cameron, who really want out of his way to help me get in touch with as many individuals as possible who were part of the policymaking process in the 1980s. The second is Cindy Buhl, who sat down with me for an hour and half and provided me with a fascinating behind-the-scenes look at congressional politicking despite the fact that she has a million things to do because she is still an congressional staffer.
By and large, almost everyone I talked to did their best to help me with my research. (Except for one arrogant prick who shall remain nameless because I sense that he is vindictive enough to try and screw me over if he found out I had insulted him on my website.) While Washington DC doesn't exactly have a reputation as a the most friendly place to work, I think there a lot more good-hearted people out there than the city gets credit for. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
# Posted 5:45 PM by Patrick Belton
THEY PROVIDE what one Lithuanian politician calls "neutral, solid, Western programming" reflecting Western values. They give an American point of view but are not generally regarded as propaganda. They have millions of listeners across the new democracies of Eastern Europe as well as a long tradition. They cost, by U.S. budgetary standards, very little: The overall funding, for 11 countries, is $11 million a year. Yet if congressional appropriators have their way, one of the cheapest, most effective and most popular tools of U.S. public diplomacy -- the foreign language services of Radio Free Europe -- will soon cease to exist. Seven languages are to be cut altogether, including the services to Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Croatia and the Baltic states. Several more, including services to Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia and Serbia, will be cut by 25 percent.Instead of spending $11 million to present an American point of view in Eastern Europe, what are our tax dollars going to? Funny you asked:
* $1.35 million for the Clearwater Economic Development Association for implementation of the Lewis and Clark Bicentennial plan to assist small communities in North Idaho in preparing for the anticipated influx of tourism during the Bicentennial years.
* $450,000 for Trout Genome Mapping. $600,000 to a project called "Web Wise Kids." $200,000 for Renovation of the First National Bank Building, Greenfield, Massachusetts. $250,000 to Martha's Village and Kitchen, Indio, California. $6,000,000 to construct a Treasure Island Bridge. $725,000 to the Please Touch Museum, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. $225,000 for "Construction of Blue-Gray Civil War Theme Park, Kentucky"
* And the Congressional Pig Book 2003 has a more complete list, identifying $22.5 billion of pork in the appropriations bills - so much, they've been heard squealing on their way across the Capitol from the House to the Senate.
Now, I'm sure all of these are worthy projects. But I'm not yet nearly convinced that building, say, a "Blue-Gray Civil War Theme Pack" in Kentucky is more deserving of the tax dollars of the nation than making the case for American policies to foreign audiences. In fact, I think it's fairly silly and short-sighted. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
# Posted 5:06 PM by Patrick Belton
# Posted 12:55 PM by Patrick Belton
UPDATE (March 24th, and do you know how much digging I had to do in Blogger to fix this?): I meant Rob, of course - sorry, fingers slipped up! (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
# Posted 12:51 PM by Patrick Belton
# Posted 12:42 PM by Patrick Belton
UPDATE: Phil Carter has another take on the fracas. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
# Posted 12:15 PM by Patrick Belton
Monday, December 08, 2003
# Posted 1:50 PM by Patrick Belton
# Posted 11:22 AM by Patrick Belton
Sunday, December 07, 2003
# Posted 6:03 PM by Ariel David Adesnik
# Posted 7:08 AM by Patrick Belton
Saturday, December 06, 2003
# Posted 5:29 PM by Patrick Belton
# Posted 5:35 AM by Patrick Belton
Sounds like a strong argument. (And it doesn't seem to be compromised, actually, by the fact that Dr Aldrin is chair of one such small company.) (1) opinions -- Add your opinion
# Posted 5:28 AM by Patrick Belton
# Posted 5:15 AM by Patrick Belton
# Posted 5:13 AM by Patrick Belton
Friday, December 05, 2003
# Posted 5:15 AM by Patrick Belton
Thursday, December 04, 2003
# Posted 9:06 PM by Patrick Belton
# Posted 9:59 AM by Patrick Belton
# Posted 4:28 AM by Patrick Belton
# Posted 3:43 AM by Patrick Belton
Both having a cut tree in an apartment lacking a sprinkler and offering money or its equivalent to another for the purpose of engaging in sexual acts and thereafter doing any substantial act in furtherance thereof are class one misdemeanors under the Virginia code. Both can get you hit with a $2,500 fine and six months in the slammer (where you won't have a Christmas tree, either).
This doesn't mean they're equal in the eyes of your wife, though. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
Wednesday, December 03, 2003
# Posted 2:11 PM by Patrick Belton
# Posted 12:26 PM by Patrick Belton
[NSC senior director for Asia, Jim] Moriarty's second proposal is even more worrying. He proposes the United States declare that it will not defend Taiwan if Beijing launches a military attack on the island in response to a "provocation," i.e., some action or statement by Taiwan that Beijing determines moves in the direction of independence. This proposal, if adopted by the administration, could prove disastrous on several grounds. First of all, it would appear to run counter to the Taiwan Relations Act passed by Congress in 1979. Indeed, it may constitute an effort by the Bush administration in effect to repeal that law by executive fiat. The Act makes it U.S. policy that there should be a peaceful resolution of the dispute between China and Taiwan. But, by suggesting that there may be "legitimate" grounds for China to take offense, this new declaration would condone the very action the law intends to prevent. This would be all the more remarkable given that less than two years ago President Bush reaffirmed the American commitment to Taiwan by declaring that the United States would do "whatever it took" to defend Taiwan.For my part, I’m curious whether the administration is attempting to deter Taipei from proceeding with a referendum on independence - which would definitely cross what China has clearly indicated to be its red lines and would likely bring about a military conflict in the Straits - by signaling that the US would not defend Taiwan in such a circumstance. This is, however, a risky gambit as well as a high-wire maneuver, for the very breadth of the message – and the language “a provocation,” and not the narrower “declaration of independence” – not only goes far beyond that circumstance, but also places exegetical authority in the hands of Beijing, and not in world’s gaze at a fairly objective fact.
A second possibility is to place this within the long tradition of secret executive promises to China with regard to Taiwan during high-level summitry, which are generally reported by journalists and historians years after the fact. Jim Mann reports President Clinton’s secret promises to oppose Taiwanese independence in his book About Face (as well in as his more contemporaneous foreign affairs reporting for the LA Times), and most presidents seem to have made similar sorts of compacts with their visiting opposite numbers from Beijing.
Few in our days share Wilson’s complete rejection of executive understandings with other governments apart from those which are open and openly arrived at - much useful assistance is, for instance, provided to the United States by governments which would be embarrassed were the fact to be discovered publicly by their people, and the aversion of wars between nuclear powers has often depended upon such “gentlemen’s agreements” as Robert Kennedy’s assurance to Ambassador Dobrynin at the end of the Cuban Missile Crisis. However, while the aversion of conflict in the Straits requires careful negotiation by every President, not only would it be clearly contrary to the United States’s democratic principles to forget its commitment to a democratic people, enshrined in its federal statute books, but a second audience must be kept in mind here. This is after all the Asia Pacific region, where it is not yet in the United States’s interests to show itself to be deterred by a China that would like itself to be perceived as the rising power to Washington’s widely predicted (especially by the Chinese) wane. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion
Tuesday, December 02, 2003
# Posted 3:01 PM by Patrick Belton
# Posted 4:54 AM by Patrick Belton
After his death, their daughter Anna had to explain to her mother that he had been, at the last, back in the company of his mistress Lucy Rutherfurd, whom Eleanor thought she had banished more than 25 years before. Such is the private life of those who have to live with Atlas as he holds up the burden of the world.This is simply silly. That FDR was inimitably great as a president is beyond refute. But having a mistress is either wrong (principally because it involves promise-breaking, a delict in most ethical systems; my personal view), or it isn't (the view often attributed to the French, though interestingly, generally by jealous Anglo-Americans). What simply isn't the case is that elevated office, irrespective of its demands however Atlas-like, could transfer the incumbent's personal (and sexual) conduct into a different moral universe from the rest of us. To think so is a dangerous and common tendency, and generally implied rather than baldly stated - but Pinochet lies that way, as do many other instances of the abuse of privilege. The other way lies civic republicanism as first enunciated by the classics: for Aristotle in the Nicomachean Ethics, eudaimonia - happiness, or human flourishing- is a complete and sufficient good because it satisfies all desire and has no evil mixed in with it. And while the exercise of political virtue and the ability to be, say, Roosevelt may not be distributed equally across a population, phronesis - that is, the practical wisdom to distinguish ethical conduct from contrasting vices - is something which all human actors have an equal need to acquire in order to flourish. Wartime presidents and prime ministers, too. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion