OxBlog

Wednesday, February 04, 2004

# Posted 12:38 AM by Ariel David Adesnik  

GET READY...GET SET...SPIN! So what happened today? Was it an unmitigated victory for Kerry? Or an indication that Edwards and Clark are still strong enough to challenge him? Howard Kurtz argues rather persuasively that the Edwards-as-serious-challenger spin doesn't have much to back it up. He might even be right that some journalists are playing up Edwards' strength because an outright Kerry victory means the end of this spring's biggest story.

Still, Kurtz misses an important point: After watching Kerry come from nowhere to surprise Dean, the media is very hesitant to expose itself to another potential embarrassment in the event that Kerry falls from grace. Besides, with Tennesse and Virginia coming up next Tuesday, Edwards may be able to generate some serious momentum (or the impression thereof). Edwards would then have three weeks until Super Tuesday to make his case while letting the media pick Kerry apart.

And what about Clark? I really don't know why he has such concentrated support in the southwest. One can plausibly argue that Arizona and New Mexcio have more liberal primary voters, since they put Dean in third while decisively rejecting Edwards. Yet Oklahoma went strong for both Clark and Edwards while giving Dean just 4%.

But perhaps none of this is relevant since Kerry took home majorities in three states and 40%+ in two others. Edwards and Clark really have no choice but to play for the breaks. And Dean? Heading back north, you just never know.

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