OxBlog

Saturday, April 10, 2004

# Posted 1:42 AM by Ariel David Adesnik  

THE CASE FOR NEGOTIATING: Two days ago I agreed with the WaPo that the United States should crush Moqtada Sadr and his outlaw militia. While I am still hanging on to that position, it is only by a thread. In the NYT, Yitzhak Nakash makes a very persuasive case for letting Ayatollah Sistani broker a ceasefire.

While Nakash comes across as somewhat naive, he makes one extremely persuasive point: that what Sadr wants even more than to end the occupation is to establish his dominance within the Shi'ite community. If Sistani brokers a settlement, it will re-establish his preeminence among Shi'ites and put the transition process back on track.

What Nakash fails to acknowledge is that negotiating with Sadr elevates him to level of respect that he hardly deserves. Yet doing so may be worthwhile, if Sadr consents to the verifiable demobilization of his militia while pledging to respect both the process and results of Iraq's first national elections next winter. Without a verifiable demobilization, however, there is no point in demanding Sadr's lip service to a democratic process he wants to destroy.

The case against negotiation is made rather well by David Brooks. There is good reason to believe that the great majority of Shi'ites, both clerics and parishioners, want nothing to do with Moqtada Sadr. We have to be patient now, rather than accepting at face value the unsubstantiated assertion that Sadr is leading a nationwide revolt.

Of course, the paper that Brooks happens to write for is reporting exactly the opposite: "Account of Broad Shiite Revolt Contradicts White House Stand". While I think it's premature to compare the Times' reporting to Drudge, its reliance on unnamed sources in the US intelligence community is somewhat problematic.

The sources in question provide no specific information to reinforce their claims. Moreover, there is no indication of whether the Times' sources represent a majority or minority opinion within the intelligence establishment. If it is a majority opinion, I expect to see other news outlets confirm the story while providing additional sources. If it is a nationwide revolt, we will have no choice to negotiate.
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