OxBlog

# Posted 2:35 PM by Patrick Belton

ENGLAND FENDS OFF SWITZERLAND 3-0, for those of you who are interested in that sort of thing....

Also, per capita GDP seems a fair predictor for country's performances so far. For each matchup which has been held to date, here is the corresponding matchup between the two countries' per capita (purchasing-power parity) GDP as well as their net PPP GDP: (I've placed the larger number in each comparison in bold, for presentational convenience)

Greece 2, Portugal 1 ($19,900 vs $18,000; $212.2 bn vs $182.3 bn)
Switzerland 0, Croatia 0 ($32,800 v $10,700; $239.8 bn vs $47.14 bn)
Denmark 0, Italy 0 ($31,200 v $26,800;167.7 bn vs $1.552 tn)
Czcech 2, Latvia 1 ($15,700 v $10,100; $160.5 bn v $23.77 bn)
Spain 1, Russia 0 ($22,000 v $8,900; $885.5 bn v 1.287 tn)
France 2, England 1 ($27,500 v $27,700*; $1.654 tn v $1.664 tn)
Sweden 5, Bulgaria 0 ($26,800 v $7,600; $238.1 bn v $57.13 bn)
Germany 1, Holland 1 ($19,900 v $28,600; $212.2 bn vs $461.4 bn)
England 3, Switzerland 0 ($27,700* v $32,800; $1.664 tn v $239.8 bn)
Portugal 2, Russia 0 ($18,000 v $8,900; $182.3 bn v $1.287 tn)

So, as you can see, per capita GDP is a rather better predictor than net GDP. Disregarding matches which ended in ties (i.e., in indeterminate results), per capita GDP predicts the winner in five out of seven pairings, whereas net GDP predicts accurately in four cases.

Corollary to Belton's Law: Belton's Law does not apply to England. England ought to have beaten France by both per capita and net GDP predictors; similarly, Switzerland should have beaten England by per capita GDP (though not by net GDP). Granted, both economic figures are for the UK rather than England, as I haven't come across economic data for England alone. But I assume the result would have been conserved by using English rather than UK data, which, given the location of the City and its financial centre in England, would have raised per capita GDP over France still more, though not necessarily up to the Swiss level - i.e., no change in that result - though on the other hand, it would have made net GDP a correct predictor of the France-England matchup.

(0) opinions -- Add your opinion