OxBlog

Friday, August 13, 2004

# Posted 7:48 AM by Patrick Belton  

THE ASIA TIMES'S MICHAEL WEINSTEIN ASKS what the 'other transition' - the one in Afghanistan, in the event of a Karzai electoral defeat - is likely to look like, in the face of forces tending to pull the country apart:
Afghanistan functions most successfully when the decentralized forces that compose its society trust one another sufficiently to compromise over common concerns and let the rest devolve to localities. The country's political system breaks down into civil war when that trust is lacking, unleashing cycles of defensive aggression. Recent civil wars have eroded trust and left authority over the qaums in the hands of warlords, who have gained in influence over other traditional authorities, especially elders and clerics.

The most likely future for Afghanistan is severe instability that Western powers, expending limited resources, will attempt to contain, but will not be able to resolve.
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