Friday, March 03, 2006

# Posted 8:10 PM by Patrick Belton  

CIVIL PERHAPS, BUT NOT SPORTING: This blog's good friend Taylor Owen takes on whether Iraq is a civil war, and why it matters.
By the standard coding definition a civil war is an internal conflict that results in at least 1,000 combat-related fatalities, 5% of which are sustained by government and rebel forces. Another definition puts the bar at 25. These thresholds have of course long been surpassed in Iraq. Indeed, the 1000+ casualties, in the past week, by this definition, make Iraq a war.

If this is the case though, then why haven’t we been calling this a civil war for the past two years?
Curiously, you'll have to go to Taylor's new blog to know the answer.
(3) opinions -- Add your opinion

Are they above 1000?
And who the heck imagined the Iraqi thing anything else but war? The morons talking of democracy-building process in Islamic country?
It's not really a civil war, even, when tw-three groups are pitted against each other, but all-out insurrection, everyone-against-all, typical of failed states; see Ukraine in 1922, for example.
all-out insurrection, everyone-against-all... Ukraine in 1922

Not quite. In 1922 Ukraine was already carved between the Soviet Union and Poland. What you're describing is Ukraine from 1918 until 1921...

A better parallel for Iraq is Yugoslavia during World War II. Serbs/Sunnis dominate the government before Germany invades. Croats/Shiites and Muslims/Kurds welcome them as liberators. Tito/(Zarqawi/Sadr) gets help from Allies/(Saudis/Iran), but instead of fighting Germans/Americans, he concentrates his attacks on Mihailovic/Talabani, and once the Germans leave, he establishes his dictatorship...
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