OxBlog

Wednesday, March 15, 2006

# Posted 12:17 PM by Patrick Belton  

READING THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Given this was elective surgery - Whitehall chose this moment to withdraw its monitors according to the Ramallah agreement, setting in motion this chain of events - it seems like a puzzlingly destabilising move for the Foreign Office and Americans to take now, during the formation of the Palestinian government and in the leadup to Israeli elections. Either this was the tactical driving the strategic, or there was some strategic calculation to it I don't quite see. In either event it would be a heartrending loss if Britain's credibility as a fair broker in the conflict, a crucial force for stability that has saved lives on both sides and helped keep the political track teetering on at least one rail (q.v. the role of Alastair Crooke in crafting the Cairo Declaration process, which led to the present tahd'ia), were to lie in tatters as a result.

I'm curious whether this is a sign Olmert believes Kadima's principal weakness lies on its right flank rather than its left. Particularly as it comes soon after the floating of Ami Ayalon for the defence portfolio, it seems a curious combination of signs - unless it's just an attempt to give a small something to all constituencies.
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