Saturday, September 16, 2006

# Posted 1:07 PM by Taylor Owen  

FRUM ON McCAIN: I would be curious what oxblog readers, and David in particular, think of Frum's assessment of McCain's presidential chances? Maybe he is pushing an agenda here, but the reasoning seems weak to me. He cites both the senatorial curse and what he calls the Lieberman Catch:

McCain's friend and Senate colleague Joe Lieberman likewise made a career out of vibrating between the parties. Like McCain, Lieberman never really strayed that far from the Democratic line: He accumulated a strongly liberal voting record, adhering with special fidelity to every last demand of the environmentalist and civil rights lobbies.

But even though he voted liberal, he forfeited liberal trust. And last month, he forfeited the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senator from Connecticut.

Conservative Republicans likewise do not trust John McCain. And candidates who cannot win the trust of their parties do not win their parties' primaries.

A tad deterministic? A bit overstated?
(3) opinions -- Add your opinion

I think the possible difference is that Lieberman was against his party's hard core on the most central issue (war against terror) wherease with McCain he is with his party on that. Its everything else that causes him to engender the contempt of his own hard core.
McCain won't make it out of the primaries; conservatives hate him. He is also getting a little long in the tooth. He'll be 72 in 2008. By comparison, Reagan was 69 when he was elected, and Reagan was old.

Frontrunner to also ran.
In 2000, McCain openly attempted to win the Republican nomination with Democratic crossover votes. In effect, a hostile takeover of his own party. That's not the sort of thing members of your own party forget. I believe McCain might be able to manage a plurality victory in the primaries, but he'd then go into the general election fatally weakened by so many Republican activists refusing to work for him.

OTOH, that might help Republicans hold the house, as those activists would be diverted from the Presidential to other races.
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