OxBlog

Tuesday, November 26, 2002

# Posted 8:49 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

CONFIT DU CANARD: According to Webster's, a "canard" comes "from Middle French vendre des canards à moitié to cheat, literally, to half-sell ducks" and refers to "a false or unfounded report or story; especially : a fabricated report." Thus, I am confident in referring to the belief that war will destabilize the Middle East as a canard. To learn why, read this.
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# Posted 8:38 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

PULITZER PUZZLE: The Times' Nick Kristof won a Pulitzer for covering the Tiannanmen uprising in 1989. That's means he's the best of the best. If so, why are half his columns brilliant and half of them terrible?

Today, Kristof tells the horrifying story of a Christian woman tortured in China. The woman's courage is an inspiration and her suffering is a reminder that terrorism is the foundation of Chinese Communist government. In fact,
Secret Communist Party documents just published in a book, "China's New Rulers,"...say approvingly that 60,000 Chinese were killed, either executed or shot by police while fleeing, between 1998 and 2001. That amounts to 15,000 a year, which suggests that 97 percent of the world's executions take place in China.
Even though I am not opposed in principle to the death penalty, I have no doubt that "execution" in China is just another word for "murder".

So if Kristof can be this good, why do some of his columns do nothing more than spout cliches? Damned if I know.
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# Posted 8:24 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

SECOND IN THE MOTION: Josh already linked to this article on US foreign aid. But it's so good, I thought I'd write more about it. The main idea is that the Bush administration has proposed a $5 billion incentive fund for poor countries committed to democracy and market-based reform. As I see it, the key aspect of the plan is this: "To qualify for a piece of the $5 billion pie, applicant nations have to do well in each of three different categories, and to demonstrate that they have cracked down on corruption." In other words, no free rides for capitalist nations who just pretend to be democratic.
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# Posted 8:09 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

RETHINKING DIVERSITY: It's hard to sum up an article this in one sentence, but I guess you could say it's a brief and insightful statement about what it means to be American.
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# Posted 8:01 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

LIBERAL MEDIA BIAS: Does it exist? I've spent the past couple of weeks going through academic literature on the issue. I haven't made any firm conclusions yet, but from what I can tell the media seem to be good at antagonizing liberals and conservatives equally. When articles come out looking biased, I think ignorance may be the cause more often than not.

Take today's WashPost piece on Saudi views of the US, for example: Unsurprisingly, a lot of Saudis are angry at the US. They feel like we assume they're all part of Al Qaeda. The Post even quotes a former US diplomat who believes that
"We're treating all Saudis as if they're terrorists. Our inability to distinguish between who is a friend and an enemy turns everyone into an enemy. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy."
There isn't one mention in the whole article of things the Saudis have done to promote Islamic fundamentalism or undermine anti-terrorists efforts. Does this mean that the Post and/or its correspondent are either ignorant of such things or excluding them consciously? No, of course not. This is just bad reporting. Someone came up with an idea to do a story on Saudi attitudes toward the US. Then a reporter did some interviews, got some quotes, and filed a story. No thought was given to context. And so it all comes out looking like Susan Sontag wrote it.

The question I'm left with is this: How often do things go this wrong? I have a high opinion of the media in general, but some element of quality control is just missing. Any ideas?

UPDATE: Mickey Kaus post his latest missive on the NY Times' hopeless committment to a liberal agenda. I think Kaus is right on the specific issues he raises, but am still unsure there is a general bias in the media.
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Monday, November 25, 2002

# Posted 9:20 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

YOU AND WHAT ARMY? Ask Hamid Karzai that question and you won't get much of an answer. But don't worry, the Pentagon has promised to send 200 soldiers to watch over the countryside...
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# Posted 9:19 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

DEAD HORSE BEATEN: Fred Hiatt has a good column on how dictators use the war on terror to justify attacks on the free press. And Bush still welcomes them to the White House.
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# Posted 9:02 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

MAN WITH A PLAN: With all due respect to the Socratic method and its advocates, I believe there is an obligation to present an alternative to those ideas and policies which one tears down. When it comes to grand strategy, I think the Bush administration might benefit from more time spent reading the work of Mike McFaul.

In the Sunday Times, McFaul demonstrates how the absence of strategy for dealing with Soviet disintegration led to significant failures which still damage US interests today. If the Bush administration is seroius about creating a new Middle East, it will have to learn the lessons of the post-Soviet experience. Lesson No. 1: The US must leverage its military dominance to ensure full democratization of post-totalitarian states. NATO has expanded, but a lack of democracy in Russia and Central Asia is holding back the war on terror. In the new Middle East, there must be a US-led security organization which provides nascent democracies with security in exchanges for a guarantee that they will consolidate domesitc reforms.

For those of you who want to know more about how McFaul thinks, check out his article in Policy Review entitled "The Liberty Doctrine". I recommend it highly.

I am also quite enamored of the following point made by McFaul, which supports my pet argument that all cultures are compatible with democracy:
Thirty years ago, experts believed that Slavic nations and Communist regimes could never become democratic. They were wrong. Experts now warn that Arab nations, particularly aristocratic or despotic regimes in North Africa and the Middle East — and perhaps Muslims generally — just cannot join the democratic world. They should go back and read what Sovietologists were saying as recently as the 1980's.
Boo yah!
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# Posted 8:43 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

TOOTHLESS HAWKS: According to conventional wisdom, one can divide the Bush administration into hawks, e.g. Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, etc., and doves, e.g. Powell, Armitage, etc. But when it comes to US relations with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and other Arab dictatorships, there seem to be only doves. While the Senate has had the guts to say that the Saudi government is behaving in a despicable manner that endangers US national security, no one in the administration has. And what was the last time anyone got tough with Pakistan, even though it bears primary responsibility for supplying the North Korean nuclear program?

The logic behind the administration's embarrassing stance is simple: The doves are too busy getting the UN ready for a confrontation with Iraq. The hawks are too busy getting America ready for a confrontation with Iraq. Why antagonize nominal supporters of the war on terror such as Saudi Arabia and Pakistan if they are behind us right now? Answer: Because their actions lead to nasty surprises that derail US efforts to achieve priority objectives such as disarming Iraq. Wouldn't it have been nice if North Korea hadn't had a nuclear program to disclose in the middle of UN deliberations about Iraq? Wouldn't it be nice if Islamic fundamentalist parties weren't in control of the Pakistani provinces which border Afghanistan?

When it comes down to it, the administration's failure to address the Saudi and Pakistani situations reflects an inability to think big when it comes to foreign policy -- to think about grand strategy. Or, to put in terms that might resonate with a Bush, it comes down to a problem with "the vision thing".

UPDATE: I forgot to repeat myself. Both the doves and the hawks have gone soft on Arab dictatorships because they aren't serious about promoting democracy. They say the right things when asked, but they don't back up their words with actions.
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# Posted 12:47 PM by Daniel  

HOWARD DEAN. I will be posting links to articles about Democratic contenders for '04, and here is one of them. Like other pundits, Howard Kurtz cannot avoid the Jimmy Carter comparison. The nomination is still Gore's if he wants it, and we should know his plans within two months. Let's see how he does on Saturday Night Live on December 14th.
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# Posted 12:34 PM by Daniel  

NOW OR NEVER. Fareed Zhakaria rightly points out that Saddam is no dummy--Iraq will probably "comply and cooperate" with the inspections process enough to please the French and Russians. Look for a drawn out process....
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Sunday, November 24, 2002

# Posted 9:03 AM by Daniel  

SCOTT RITTER. The NY Times Magazine features him this weekend in a piece worth reading. It is pretty clear that Ritter's desperation to stay in the limelight, rather than any ideological conversion, drives his current position (which itself is difficult to pin down). Sometimes he seems to hate the U.S. government as much as he hates Sadamm.
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# Posted 7:19 AM by Daniel  

CLIVE DAVIS reviews Michael Moore in today's Washington Times. Oh, and he also mentions a blog.
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Saturday, November 23, 2002

# Posted 12:14 PM by Daniel  

JOSH GOT THE SPORT RIGHT, BUT THE GAME WRONG. Go Bruins.
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# Posted 6:06 AM by Ariel David Adesnik  

VERSUS CULTURAL RELATIVISM: This morning the NY Times published an op-ed by Bao Tong, whom it identifies as
former director of the Office of Political Reform of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee, was the highest party official imprisoned for opposing the Tiananmen Square crackdown. He was released from prison in 1996 and remains under constant police surveillance.
The words in his column that struck me were:
Mao and Deng both advanced the view that the Chinese national character was something easily differentiated from one that might be called Western. The last three party congresses have all continued to label democracy as too "Western" and therefore unsuited to China. Yet what does the division between "Eastern" and "Western" ideas mean in a post-communist China that has accepted the W.T.O.?

One might add: What did the division between "Eastern" and "Western" mean in communist China, a society based on a philosophy developed by a German exile in London?
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Friday, November 22, 2002

# Posted 9:02 PM by Daniel  

GARY HART. There has been some buzz about him running in 2004, and why not--he is from a Mountain West state, and holds foreign policy credentials. Jules Witcover adds fuel to the fire.
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# Posted 8:44 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

PELOSI UPDATE: E.J. Dionne thinks she's a principled defender of human rights. TNR's Michael Cowley shows that she's willing to talk out of both sides of her mouth when it comes to Iraq. Neither revelations should come as a surprise. As OxBlog observed last week, Pelosi's foreign policy seems driven in equal parts by liberal principles and shameless partisanship.
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# Posted 8:19 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

STUPID WHTIE (EUROPEAN) MALES: While we're on the topic of prejudice, why not mention Europe's refusal to facilitate Turkish membership in the EU? As Fareed Zakaria observes,
Europeans often complain that America's strategy in the war on terror is one-dimensional. It's all military might with little effort to engage the Islamic world in a constructive way. They point out that unless we help Muslim countries prosper, all the F-16s and Predators in the world won't stop the flow of terror. It's a valid criticism, but the single biggest push that could shift events in this direction lies not in America's hands but in Europe's. And Europe is about to blow it.
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# Posted 8:15 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

ANOTHER CHAFETZ INSPIRED POST: Correct me if I'm wrong, but Islamic fundamentalists are often impolite towards homosexuals. Therefore, there is little danger that homosexual intelligence analysts might be tempted to sell military secrets to Al Qaeda or Saddam Hussein. Then why the hell have the US armed forces fired seven gay Arabic linguists? Perhaps it is because there are so many Americans proficient in Arabic that the Pentagon can afford to pick and choose. Or perhaps it is because no one in the armed forces has the guts to stand up to the reactionary homophobes who make stupid decisions that damage US national security.
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# Posted 7:59 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

"IRAQI OPPOSITION GROUPS have squabbled for months over..." How to oust Saddam Hussein? How to develop Iraq in the aftermath of war? How to support secular rights in a Muslim nation? No, no and no. As the WashPost reports
Iraqi opposition groups have squabbled for months over when, how and where to hold the[ir next] conference -- and, despite the administration's enthusiasm, reports continued yesterday that the feuding has not ended.
I'm glad I'm not Tommy Franks, but I'm sure as hell glad Tommy Franks is.
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# Posted 7:54 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

BUSH: CYNIC OR STATESMAN? As the NY Times points out, Bush can restore his credibility on democracy promotion by moving aggressively to spend the $3 billion in Afghan reconstruction funds that Congress has authorized. Then again, the fact that Congress authorized more funding than the White House asked for suggests that the President never intended to go to bat for Afghan democracy. Frankly, I think Bush should get serious about democracy promotion for the simple reason that I am tired of hearing from Oxford leftists that his embrace of the issue is a rhetorical trick to get Americans behind the war. My response? Wolfowitz in '08!

PS Even the Army thinks Afghan reconstruction is a priority. Maybe the President is only one who hasn't recognized that Afghans are creative and hardworking to invest US aid rather than becoming dependent on it.

UPDATE: The Weekly Standard's David Brooks comments on creative and hardworking Afghans, and how the liberal press only wants to see misery where it should see opportunity. But he manages to avoid any mention of the aid bill before Congress and what it says about the Bush administration and Afghanistan.
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# Posted 7:48 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

BUSH: SUCKER OR STATESMAN? David Ignatius argues today that Bush's wartime leadership is comparable to that of Lincoln and Roosevelt. If so, then why has Bush endorsed Vladimir Putin's brutal response to the Moscow hostage crisis? Bush even went as far as to compare the attack in Moscow to the attacks of September 11th. The left should have a field day with that one, arguing that US imperialism provoked September 11th the same way that Russian brutality provoked the Moscow attacks.

Now, if Putin were to endorse US foreign policy in exchange for Bush's support, I would understand, though not agree. But the fact is, Russia has continuously sought to undermine our efforts at the UN. In fact, during the same meeting at which Bush made his remarks, Putin spoke out against US unilateralism. Once again, Putin has played Bush for a fool.
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# Posted 7:04 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

AXE TO GRIND: I have spent a lot of time working on Latin American politics, so when the NY Times opens its big mouth on the subject, I tend to get pissed off. In an editorial today, the Times argues that
Free-market economic prescriptions pushed by Washington have been discredited. Leftist and populist alternatives are gaining support, as evidenced by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's election last month to the Brazilian presidency.
Really? While Lula was once a leftist and populist, that stand cost him three consecutive presidential elections. Only this year, after cutting a deal with the IMF and campaigning in a suit instead of denim did he manage to pull off a victory. If free markets were discredited, you might actually see countries closing their markets off to the world. But even in Argentina, which is suffering its worst crisis since the Great Depression, no one thinks that the economy can survive in isolation.

I hope you enjoyed that. Maybe once we get rid of Saddam, OxBlog can post more Latin American news and commentary.
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# Posted 6:55 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

BEWARE ASIAN NERDS: Nick Kristof has a column today on how China will one day challenge America because its students work so hard and don't smoke, drink or have sex. Now the last time we hard this story, it was about Japanese kids who worked so hard and don't smoke, drink or have sex. But for some reason, perhaps a decade-long recession in Japan, we don't hear much about that any more. When will American correspondents learn that without creativity and independent thinking, no nation's students can challenge those of the Western world?
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# Posted 6:46 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

WE MISS YOU, JOSH! Since Josh is in New Haven, I thought I'd post some of his favorite type of news: American success in the war on terror. While the US government announced a while ago that it had captured a senior Al Qaeda figure, that figure has now been identified as Abd al-Rahim al-Nashiri, an operative who played a critical role in both the African embassy and Cole bombings. As the WashPost observed, "Al-Nashiri's apprehension and [Predator victim] Harithi's death mark important successes in the U.S. war on al Qaeda's leadership, terror experts said, at a time when Democrats and others have questioned the effectiveness of the administration's war on terror."

UPDATE: If you read the NYT piece on al-Nashiri, make sure to read TNR's response to it as well.
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Monday, November 18, 2002

# Posted 2:36 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

WOODWARD PART DEUX: Don't forget to read the latest excerpt from his book, "Bush at War".
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# Posted 2:27 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

TURNING THE TABLES: Josh forced me to produce a comprehensive justification of my constant assertions that internal divisions in the Bush administration are damaging its foreign policy. Now I'm going to ask Josh to justify one of his favorite points -- that the war on terror is going well.

Critics of the Bush administration consistently charge that preparations for the war on Iraq are diverting it from the war on terror. I disagree, but mostly from an agnostic perspective. I don't know if the war on terror is going well. According to what standard can the United States' efforts be judged? Does the recent attack on Bali show that the American homeland is now secure or that Al Qaeda still has the ability to murder hundreds of innocents? Since I don't know the answer, I haven't said much.

On the other hand, Josh seems to pounce upon every arrest of a suspected terrorist as an indication that the war on terror is going well. As an agnostic, I am no less skeptical of his intransigent position than I am of the administration's critics. So, Josh, I'm asking you to answer the questions laid out above: According to what standard can one judge American efforts? If the war on terror is, as you say, a "behind-the-scenes" war how can anyone judge its effectiveness? As any good investigative reporter would ask, how do we know that all this talk of behind-the-scenes war isn't just political cover for an effort that hasn't produced any impressive successes? And if it hasn't, shouldn't we assume that the administration's prioritization of the war in Iraq is responsible?

That's what's on my mind.
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# Posted 2:13 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

DEMOCRACY'S RAW DIEHL: WashPost columnist Jack Diehl takes the Bush administration (and his own editors) to task for ignoring a major conference of democratic states in Seoul this past week.

Diehl gives solid reasons why the administration should've backed up its rhetoric about promoting democracy by focusing on this conference:

1) Unlike most international forums, this one has defined democracy strictly, thus preventing states such as Egypt, Pakistan and Malaysia from attending.

2) Coordinated diplomatic efforts by the world's democracies can do significant things, such as kick terrorist states like Syria off the UN Human Rights Commission

Diehl's bottom line: it's time for the administration to put it's money where it's mouth is when it comes to democracy promotion...
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Sunday, November 17, 2002

# Posted 7:42 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

INSPECTOR CLOUSEAU? It seems that Hans Blix's UN inspection team is already at loggerheads with the US about how to go about doing his job. Apparently, Blix thinks the inspectors should be "firm" with the Iraqis but not "angry or aggressive".

While it is tempting to compare Blix to that lovable fellow who tried to catch the Pink Panther, I have a hunch that what's going on now may reflect as much posturing as it does sincerity. As I asked yesterday, has US-UN cooperation already ensured that the inspectors will find what they are looking for? I'd say there's a chance that Blix is just trying to preserve his own image of impartiality so that neither France nor Russia objects when he reports on Iraqi violations of resolution 1441. If not, we're in trouble.
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# Posted 7:24 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

PARTY IN BAGHDAD: The leadership of Iraq's Kurdish forces has announced that it will head for the Iraqi capital if and when the war begins. Forces representing other Iraqi dissident populations are expected to March on Baghdad. I sure hope Tommy Franks is mediating this behind the scenes.
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# Posted 7:19 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

SHAKE DJIBOUTI!!! The US has established a strong presence in Djibouti as part of its build-up in the Gulf. Interestingly, the US is using French military facilities there, since Djibouti is a former French colony which has continued to serve as a base for 2,800 French troops. While I wouldn't take this cooperation as a sign that France will facilitate UN efforts to reign in Saddam Hussien, it is evidence of the same point I made yesterday with regard to Germany, i.e. that when push comes to shove, Europe's democracies know that they can trust the United States to defend their security no less than our own.
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# Posted 7:13 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

THREE CHEERS FOR DIVERSITY: There are few surer signs of self-confidence and intellectual integrity than an accommodating attitude towards those with whom one disagrees. Thus, it is entirely to Josh's credit that he founded this blog, established its strong presence in the blogosphere, and then proceeded to welcome other contributors whose views often clash with his own. That is what it means to appreciate the value of diversity.

Now here comes some diversity: Yesterday, Josh challenged me to defend my constant assertion that internal divisions in the Bush administration have "wrought havoc" on American foreign policy. As Josh points out
Bush's diplomacy has gotten him just about everything he wants...It was only by alternatively showing the more hawkish and less hawkish sides that we could maneuver the other Security Council nations into agreeing to the resolution. Unless you have the default assumption that any good outcomes produced by the Administration are the result of dumb luck, it seems to me that you'd come to the conclusion that this was a pretty skillful piece of coordinated diplomacy

I agree with Josh that intentionality is the fundamental issue for those interested in assessing the administration's efforts. If Bush intended to take advantage of internal divisions by playing good cop/bad cop with the Security Council, he deserves recognition for his success. If not, one has to acknowledge the wisdom of Napoleon who once observed, possibly in reference to George Bush, that "it is better to be lucky than smart".

In one of my first-ever posts on OxBlog, I raised the idea that the Bush administration might be taking advantage of its reputation for belligerence to wrest a strong resolution from the Security Council. I concluded, however, that
While the Good Cop/Bad Cop idea is somewhat plausible, I don't even find it convincing myself. Why not? Because Bush, Rumsfeld and Cheney just seem so sincere in their demands. One struggles to detect even the hint of an admission on their part that European demands are legitimate. Their sincerity is reinforced by the unabashed unilateralism of the Bush administration in the months before September 11th. Nothing the Bush administration has done on either the domestic or international front has suggested that it has either the imagination or the discipline to follow through on even the sort of moderately sophisticated public relations campaign that a convincing Good Cop/Bad Cop strategy would require.


As it stands, that statement provides no evidence for the position it defends. Rather, the statement rests on an assessment of Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld's sincerity. I hope I can show that subsequent events have provided a more solid foundation for my initial hunch.

In my next post on the subject, I linked to a TNR article by Ryan Lizza whose careful reading of White House briefing books showed that explicit threats to use force against Iraq made it into very late drafts of Bush's September 12th speech to the UN. Lizza also points out that on September 14th, in a little-noticed interview with the US government's Arabic-language radio station, Rumsfeld refused to say that the US had committed itself definitively to seeking a new resolution calling for arms inspections. As Lizza concludes, and I concur, "the war between Secretary of State Colin Powell and the hawks seems to have continued right up until the moment Bush delivered his speech." In other words, there was no good cop/bad cop strategy, but rather a real divide within the administration.

Released today, an excerpt from Bob Woodward's new book "Bush at War" provides hard evidence to back up almost all of what Lizza said. At an NSC meeting in mid-August, Bush made a decision to go at Iraq through the United Nations. This decision, however, was not made public. Then, in late August Cheney publically and repeatedly attacked advocates of working with the UN, stunning Powell. Further meetings with the President revealed that his decision to seek a resolution was not firm. In fact, the actual, final, real decision was made so late that the relevant lines in Bush's September 12th speech were left out of the Teleprompter.

From my perspective, the most significant aspect of Woodward's account is the fact that Cheney publicly attacked a decision that the President had already made and eventually forced him to reconsider it. I see that as strong evidence supporting my assertion that the President is not in control of his own cabinet.

At this point, I will rest my case against the idea that the Bush administration sought to play good cop/bad cop with the United Nations. This brings up a second question, which I see as no less important. If "Bush's diplomacy has gotten him just about everything he wants" how can I say that internal divisions have "wrought havoc" on American foriegn policy? My first response to that challenge is that we don't know what Bush wants. Is he committed to seeing the UN resolution successfully implemented, or does he just want to show that he tried multilateralism before the US strikes out on its own?

Obviously, it won't be possible to answer that question until Hans Blix's inspections squad issues its report. Yet as Robert Kagan and William Kristol point out, it may be even harder for the US to justify unilateral action after the inspections are over. As these authors and others have pointed out, the inspections process may take so long that military action won't be possible until a year from now.

Now, if Tommy Franks is in Baghdad by March, I may have to eat my words. But there will still be other issues that the Bush administration needs to address before one can consider its foreign policy a lasting success. Two big ones are Afghanistan and Pakistan. While I haven't cited yet seen any evidence yet that the administration's half-hearted efforts to keep those nations on our side have been a result of internal divisions, I wouldn't be surprised if they were.

I hope everything goes right for Bush and for America. He's the commander-in-chief and his success or failure is ours as well. But sometimes I suspect the administration needs some prodding before it does the right thing.

If you are still reading this post, thank you for time. I suspect, however, it won't be the last of its kind.
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# Posted 7:21 AM by Daniel  

DEMOCRATS IN 04. Daniel Schorr thinks it's Gore, Adam Nagourney isn't so sure.
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Saturday, November 16, 2002

# Posted 8:19 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

NEW FEATURE ON OXBLOG: In case you haven't noticed, most of the links on OxBlog take you to well-known publications such as the NY Times, Washington Post, New Republic, Weekly Standard and National Review. As such, I want to try and post information and opinions from other sources that wouldn't necessarily get much attention otherwise. In addition, I want to provide in-depth commentary about the significance of such sources so that they don't just get lost in the flood of information on the net.

So here's my idea: Each week, I'll find one medium-length article (3,000-5,000 words) on foreign policy and international affairs. Then, each day, I will provide a paragraph by paragraph commentary on an excerpt from it. I guess you could say that I'll be "fisking" the articles, but since my intention is not to criticize, the term doesn't really apply. Anyway, I'd be interested in your thoughts on this new feature. I will give it a go for a couple of weeks and then see if people find it useful.

FYI, the first articles I'm going to focus on belong to a series published by Robert Kagan in the mid-90's in Commentary. These are the articles that established Kagan as America's leading conservative idealist thinker on foreign affairs. Take my praise with a grain of salt, however. I had the chance to work for Kagan at theCarnegie Endowment for International Peace and have tremendous respect for him (his fashion sense excepted). But after reading these articles, I don't think you'll need me to tell you they're really, really good.

Signing off for now, David.
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# Posted 8:00 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

DIPLOMAT SLAMS POST: If you want to be a successful dictator, try to avoid bad press. With the pages full of Saddam these days, other petty tyrants and genocidaires are breathing easy. In fact, Liberia's Charles Taylor was bold enough to pay for a special four-page advertising section in the Washington Post. Yet as Gerarld Rose -- the US's No. 2 man in Liberia in the early 90's -- points out, the Post would probably not have accepted a four page advertisement from Saddam himself.

At least the Post was enough to admit it's mistake and publish Rose's letter. If the Post really wanted to show that it cared, however, it should take down its links to the special advertising sections that feature mini-rogue states such as Angola and the Congo.
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# Posted 7:42 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

WOODWARD SCOOPS OXBLOG: Well what did you expect? For a bunch of graduate students in England to find out more about the inner workings of the Bush administration than America's most famous investigative reporter?

Anyway, I've been pontificating for quite a while now about the havoc wrought by divisions within Bush's cabinet. As such, I'm looking forward to Woodward's new book, entitled "Bush at War", which will be the definitive account of the administrations' inner workings and the effects of the Powell-Cheney divide. Maybe it'll turn out that I'm completely wrong about things. Who knows. Anyway, click here to order your advance copy.
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# Posted 7:25 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

STUPID WHITE ARMS INSPECTORS? I've just noticed something about the whole debate on inspections and whether or not they can possibly work. Both the pro- and anti-Bush camps assume that inspections will the entail the United States letting the UN inspectors have the final official word on what weapons Iraq does or doesn't have. Yet the cooperation between the Western intelligence agencies and Blix's inspections squad has long been public knowledge. As the NY Times reports today:
Inspectors armed with American, British and other Western intelligence on Iraqi weapons sites plan to be in place well before the United Nations deadline, said the inspection chief, Hans Blix.
As such, the real question to ask is to what degree US-UN cooperation has been effective in ensuring that inspections will turn up the weapons everyone knows Saddam has. To phrase it differently, is the Bush administration gambling that UN inspectors will find what they're supposed to, or has it known all along exactly what they are going to find? I sure as hell hope that the answer is 'B'.
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# Posted 7:10 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

'NEIN' BECOMES 'JA': The German parliament voted overwhelmingly to extend German participation in the war on terror and even take over command of the peacekeeping force in Kabul. Not surprising, really. Ever since the end of the Cold War, leading European states have come to recognize that the United States is the guarantor of their security and ideals. That is why, no matter how much European politicians criticize the United States in order to win the nationalist vote, they will never actually get in the way of what America does.

For an in-depth discussion of why Europe has come to aceept its dependence on the United States (while vocally insisting that it hasn't), see this article by Robert Kagan.
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Friday, November 15, 2002

# Posted 10:33 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

LET IT BE? HELL NO! Another liberal confesses that liberal principles demand a forceful effort to oust Saddam Hussein. This time the confessor is Richard Just of the American Prospect. My favorite part is his swipe at the "root causes" crowd:
Anti-war liberals have derided the prospect of a liberated Iraq serving as a model for Arab democracy -- and starting a domino effect that could liberate the Muslim world from the grips of petty despots and theocratic lunatics -- as fanciful. But for all their talk about the "root causes" of terrorism, my fellow liberals have spoken very little about how they plan to remedy the situation. Deterrence is not going to address the "root causes" of terror. It will likely make them worse. At best it will leave a madman in check and leave much of the Muslim world in an ongoing mood of simmering disdain for America. At worst it will empower a madman to bide his time in manipulating the Muslim world's ongoing disdain for America. It is not a policy of hope; it is a policy of little imagination and puny moral spirit.

Thanks to Matt Yglesias for the link.
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# Posted 9:41 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

DO BLOGS MATTER? Andrew Sullivan weighs in.
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# Posted 9:16 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

ONE MORE ON THE BANDWAGON. WashPost columnist E.J. Dionne takes the Bush administration to task for letting internal battles between hawks and doves prevent it from having a coherent foreign policy. He joins The New Republic and one-third of OxBlog. Jim Hoagland and David Broder are almost on the bandwagon.

Dionne goes on to savage the Democrats for having no coherent policy either. He argues that if the Democrats had taken a strong position on the need for a multilateral approach to Iraq during the campaign, they might have been able to avoid the embarrassment of seeming like unprincipled hacks and, possibly, the embarrassment of being manhandled at the polls by a President who had the guts to campaign for what he believed.
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# Posted 8:42 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

GIVE PEACE A CHANCE. That seems to be Nancy Pelosi's message to Congressional Democrats. As TNR's solid profile of Pelosi points out, her resistance to authorizing a second war against Iraq has been no less steady than her opposition to the First. But interestingly, she backed the use of force in both Bosnia and Kosovo.

Two interpretations of her behavior suggest themselves. First, Pelosi might be one of those liberals who can only conceive of using force when American security is not at stake. Second, Pelosi might be one of those Congressfolk who only support war when their party is in the White House -- and thus stands to benefit from the rally-'round-the-flag effect that all wars have. Remember when Trent Lott said that in Kosovo we should "give peace a chance"? Position One is sincere but misguided, whereas Position Two is pragmatic and deceptive. I'm not sure which is worse, but I lean toward Two since I think integrity and honor are much more important than success. But either way, it seems Pelosi out of touch with the changes wrought by September 11th.

In contrast, TNR had this to say about Harold Ford, Pelosi's opponent in the race for Minority Leader:
Ford voted for the use-of-force resolution but, in explaining that decision last week, said something simple and profound: "September eleventh changed things for me." In other words, he recognized--as few other Democrats seemed to--that catastrophic terrorism requires a rethinking of how Democrats approach foreign policy.
While Ford's numerous weaknesses as a politician justify the Dems decision to back Pelosi, he still does have something to contribute.

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# Posted 7:59 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

THREE CHEERS FOR THE LEFT. Well, maybe not the left. But at least the left-of-center. Nicholas Kristof spends the bulk of his column in today's NY Times compiling a list of all those who naively criticized Israel for pre-emptively bombing Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor in 1981. Kristof even points out that William Safire was pretty much the only one who recognized that Israel had done the right thing. So here's to all those honorable enough to admit when they're wrong. Doing so is the foundation of democratic discourse.
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# Posted 7:41 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

KOFI'S AT IT AGAIN. The NY Times reports that:
Secretary General Kofi Annan said today that the United States seemed to have a lower threshold for going to war in Iraq than other nations on the United Nations Security Council.

After meeting with President Bush, Mr. Annan urged the White House to be "a bit patient" against any rush toward military action. If it comes, he added, military action would have to be based on credible evidence of Iraq's obstruction, and not a "flimsy" excuse to go to war.


We all know that Annan has never been good on the Iraq issue. But I think the remarks in the NYT are more of a political maneuver than they are actual criticism of the United States. Annan wants to preserve his credibility with all of the members of the Security Council whom he pressured to vote for Resolution 1441. Presumably, he had to tell them he would stop Bush from going cowboy once the resolution passed. Still, if Annan keeps this up he'll hurt his credibility with the US, increasing the chance that it will ignore the UN completely.

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# Posted 7:21 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

MORE STUPID WHITE MEN. The one in question is me. I wrote a while back that
To a degree, Moore's book is very "September 10th". However, the fact that his publishers tried to stop publication of the book after September 11th demonstrates that there were, in fact, some efforts to supress legitimate dissent as a result of the attacks.
However, according to an e-mail from Adam Bellow, executive editor at Doubleday,
While Michael Moore's publisher did try to cancel the book after 9-11, their action cannot be called an attempt to suppress dissenting views. Rather it was a well-founded business decision not to lose their shirt by publishing an anti-Bush book the same month that terrorists attacked the US. If they had, despite his cries to the contrary, Moore himself would not have been happy with the result. In the long run they did publish the book and made a ton of money (as did Moore). They were right to do both and were not motivated by political considerations except to the extent that current politics creates a favorable or unfavorable commercial environment.
God Bless capitalism!

PS Adam also points out that Viking will soon publish a one-volume work by Donald Kagan on the Peloponnesian War.
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Thursday, November 14, 2002

# Posted 8:09 AM by Daniel  

POLITICS MAKES STRANGE BEDFELLOWS. William Safire and the ACLU probably feel the same way about the Homeland Security Act in its current form.
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Wednesday, November 13, 2002

# Posted 8:12 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

MORE BEER! AND MORE BUSH! After its successful launch last Thursday, Beer & Bush returns. Thursday. 4pm. The Turf.

Come and talk about politics and world affairs while relaxing with a point. All are welcome.

Directions (from the Radcliffe Camera): Walk up Catte Street toward the main Bodleian building and bear right on New College Lane. Turn left into the alleyway just past the Bridge of Sighs.
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# Posted 5:22 PM by Daniel  

HAROLD FORD MAKES HIS CASE. Speaking of Harold Ford, check out his editorial in today's Washington Post. It looks like Pelosi already has enough votes to secure the minority leader position, but he makes a convincing case for a moderate vision which offers its own ideas rather than reflexive critiques of whatever the Republicans have to offer. Watch out for Ford down the road.
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# Posted 1:07 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

THE TOM & MAUREEN SHOW: Why does the Times let both of them publish their columns on the same day? There is a limit to the number of cute wordplays that even I can stand. But when it comes to substance, we know who wins.

At a moment when slightly more pressing issues are facing the world, Maureen has given us a column on Britain's dowdy queen. (I'm sorry. I couldn't help it. Who knew Webster's would define "dowdy" as "lacking in smartness or taste"?)

In contrast, Tom has given us one of the best pieces I can recall on US relations with the UN and the role that each plays in validating the other. Still, I must register disagreement. While Friedman does not fall into the common trap of praising multilateralism as an end in and of itself, he does mistake it for the sina qua non of international legitimacy.

As I see it, other nations -- and especially other democracies -- will judge the United States according to the moral worth of its actions regardless of whether they are taken without UN or allied approval. In the end, a unilateral strike against Saddam will win respect for us because he is evil. It is only when we attack governments of which other democratic nations actively approve -- such as Allende's in Chile -- that we risk becoming a rogue superpower.

To my chagrin, I don't have time to make my case in greater depth. But expect more posts to come...
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# Posted 12:40 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

THE ITCHY & SCRATCHY SHOW: Saddam has boldly rejected the advice of the Iraqi parliament in deciding to comply with the latest UN resolution on arms inspections. Let the cat & mouse games begin!
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Tuesday, November 12, 2002

# Posted 10:48 AM by Ariel David Adesnik  

OCCUPATION AIN'T EASY: A WashPost editorial describes the challenges of keeping the peace and holding elections in Bosnia. Pessimists might see it as an argument for abandoning the Bush administration's declared interest in a democratic Iraq. I see it as an indication of just how important extensive planning is for an effective occupation.

Note: Don't expect the Iraqi opposition to make Tommy Franks job any easier.
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# Posted 10:43 AM by Ariel David Adesnik  

STUPID ARAB MEN: Did Saddam think no one was going to notice his effort to buy a million doses of an antidote to his Sarin and VX type chemical weapons?
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# Posted 10:35 AM by Ariel David Adesnik  

BALLISTIC FINGERPRINTS: The NY Times reconsiders its position on the matter.
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# Posted 10:33 AM by Ariel David Adesnik  

IT'S ALL GREEK TO ME: I thought I'd use my limited knowledge of the Western canon to add a note to Josh's reading list. While I agree that Thucydides' Peloponnesian War belongs on the list, readers should be warned that the latter four-fifths of it are incomprehensible (or worse, boring) without the aid of an informed commentary. Having had the privilege of studying Thucydides with Donald Kagan, the world's foremost historian of ancient Greece, I find myself compelled to recommend his commentary. Unfortunately, it is four volumes long. I assure you, however, that the effort is worth it, since Kagan's brilliance will make you realize why Thucydides work is a classic that has endured through the millenia.

In the meantime, I will e-mail Prof. Kagan and ask him which one-volume commentary on the Peloponnesian War he recommends. Alternately, just read the first volume of his work, which by itself will enhance one's appreciation of Thucydides' significantly. Be warned, however. You may find yourself unable to resist the next three volumes once you start...
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# Posted 10:24 AM by Ariel David Adesnik  

BOOK REVIEWS: I just finished reading all the books Josh recommended on the basics of Western political thought. Yeah right. But I did read Stupid White Men, which Dan mentioned briefly.

To a degree, Moore's book is very "September 10th". However, the fact that his publishers tried to stop publication of the book after September 11th demonstrates that there were, in fact, some efforts to supress legitimate dissent as a result of the attacks. Legimitate dissent should not be confused with intelligent dissent, however. First of all, the book is filled with unforgiveable factual errors, as documented by Spinsanity in Salon. (Example: Bush has proposed a $1.6 trillion increase in the Pentagon budget.) Even worse is the fact that Moore provides footnotes to sources which don't even come close to saying what he does in the book. The fact that Stupid White Men made an impressive run at the top of the New York Times bestseller list is a disturbing indication of just how unelite America's intellectual eltie are.

Even if one forgives Moore's poetic license with the facts, the book fails on the grounds that its arguments are incoherent. While Dan is right that there are ad hominem attacks on Bush throughout, Moore does not present his book as an anti-Bush polemic, but rather one against the dominance of white males. This is race- and gender-baiting at its most crude. In his chapter on why white Americans are to blame for the nation's troubles, Moore does little more than argue that whites are too eager to hold blacks responsible for the vast majority of crimes. Perhaps. But since Moore blames white Americans for everything from pollution to pork-barrelling, he needs to do a lot more than show that black people are statistically less dangerous than some might think.

As for women, Moore observes that America denied them the right to vote until 1920. Afterwards, white men tricked them into voting for white men who would continue to hold them down. So basically, Moore's argument is that women are too stupid to recognize what's in their own interest. Not impressive for someone who claims to be against sexism. Moreover, Moore declares that all of the women in Bush's cabinet are honorary white males. In other words, all women and non-whites should have political opinions identical to Moore's. Again, not impressive for someone who claims to be against racial stereotypes.

To sum it up in one word, Stupid White Men is an embarrassment.
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# Posted 6:53 AM by Daniel  

DENNIS ROSS ON IRAQ. Ross says:
Regardless of the inspection regime, the prospect of finding what he does not want us to find is very limited without help from those in Iraq who know where the most sensitive work is being done. And unfortunately, the message that partial disclosure will be tolerated is hardly likely to encourage them to step forward -- even if the inspectors can insist on talking to scientists and others without their Iraqi minders. (Bear in mind that Blix has already indicated that he sees problems with bringing such Iraqi scientists, officials and their families outside the country.)

I agree that letting Hussein get away with partial disclosure of his programs after 30 days could lead to disastrous consequences--it would send the signal that the UN is more interested in containment than disarmament. But how will we know if he is playing the cat and mouse game yet again? According to Ross, "President Bush has set the stage for disarmament. Now he must condition the French, the Russians and the rest of the world to understand that the moment of truth comes not with the inspectors' arrival but with the character of Iraq's disclosure on Dec. 8." Is there really a way to determine whether or not Iraq has fully disclosed its WMD programs?
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Monday, November 11, 2002

# Posted 4:57 PM by Daniel  

MICHAEL MOORE. I enjoyed "Roger and Me" when I watched it in my 12th grade Economics course back in High School, so I decided to pick up his book "Stupid White Men" at the airport on Friday. It is definitely "September 10th" in its content--especially in its humorous rendition of the events surrounding Bush v. Gore. SWM is littered with the ad hominen attacks against Bush we have all heard hundreds of times. When Moore treads into post-September 11th territory, the book goes from entertaining to absurd. For example, Moore writes: "You say that Osama bin Laden was the mastermind begind the September 11 attacks. But numerous news reports have pointed out that this 'evildoer' was on dialysis at the time as he had failing kidneys." I'm speechless.
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Sunday, November 10, 2002

# Posted 7:50 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

OUR POINT ELABORATED: OxBlog wasn't the only to notice the absurd hypocrisy of the State Department's assertion that the US can strike pre-emptively at terrorists in Yemen but that Israel can't do the same in the West Bank's. Max Boot points out in the current issue of the Weekly Standard that even Human Rights Watch has recognized that Israel cannot depend on Yasser Arafat to protect it from suicide bombings.
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# Posted 6:56 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

ALL IN THE TIMING: Rachel Bronson from the Council on Foreign Relations writes in the NY Times that the Bush administration's late decision to embrace the UN has now left in the undesirable position of having only days to decide on military action once the arms inspectors report back in February, since it may be too hot afterwards to fight in the desert.

I have a feeling the Pentagon is aware of the issue. Expect the US to force the issue at the UN in January.
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# Posted 6:26 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

POWELL POWER: On Saturday, The NY Times ran a long article on Colin Powell's efforts to negotiate a workable UN resolution with both American hawks and UN doves. Unfortunately, the article did not absolutely nothing to explain how Powell managed to convert the French and the Russians to the US position. Did we buy them off? Were they afraid we'd go it alone? If there were an answer, it would say a lot about both Powell's ability as negotiator and the nature of our erstwhile allies.

The article also provided considerable substantiation for one of my favorite points, which is that the President never instructed the whole cabinet to support a single strategy, therefore provoking semi-open warfare within the administration that the the unfortunate effect of undercutting the effort of both sides.

UPDATE: Compare the NYT article with the WashPost article on the same subject. The Post avoids the issue of Russia and France, but provides a far superior account of Powell's effort to persuade the hawks to go along. Would someone please explain, then, whey the NYT costs three times as much as the Post?

Unless you read them online, in which case they're both free!
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# Posted 6:10 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

THINKING ABOUT BUSH? I have no idea what made Jenn think that Trent Lott would be a good name for a porn star. If you are thinking about Congress and porn, your man is Dick Armey. After all, according to the man from Texas, ""Yes, I am Dick Armey. And if there is a dick army, Barney Frank would want to join up."
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# Posted 3:49 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

MAKING PUTIN LOOK COMPETENT: According to Amrozi, the first terrorist arrested in connection with the Bali attack, the intended targets of the attack were American tourists. The choice of a nightclub popular with Australians was a tactical error, since the terrorists consider Australians and other non-Americans to be innocent.

In some ways, the mistaken murder of "innocent" Australians (and others) is an even more compelling demonstration of Islamic fundamentalists' brutality than their attacks on American citizens. The terrorists sincere belief that all Americans are "guilty" makes their violence comprehensible from a psychological perspective, if not from a moral one. The massive disregard for human life that led to the murder of the Australians and others in Bali shows how the all-consuming hatred of the terrorists leads them to abandon all concern even for the innocent, an ethical stance which exposes the unmitigated evil they represent.

PS If you still want to read more about Putin's incompetence, click here.
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Thursday, November 07, 2002

# Posted 2:29 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

DOUBLE STANDARD: While the Bush administration authorizes "targeted killings" of terrorists in Yemen, it insists that Israel has no right to do exactly the same thing in the West Bank. According to State Department spokesman Richard Boucher, it is because the situation of the United States and that of Israel are not comparable.

The WashPost defends the administration in an editorial whose acrobatic logic is quite impressive. According to the Post
Military action makes sense only when it is impossible to work through law enforcement or local authorities. Yemen clearly falls into that category: Its authorities tried and failed to capture numerous al Qaeda militants operating in remote parts of the country, and now they appear to have acquiesced in the CIA's use of missile-armed drones.
Does that mean Israel has to wait for Yasser Arafat to admit that his police forces are incompetent/complicit in terrorism and then invite the Sharon to help him kill the masterminds behind the suicide bombs?
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# Posted 1:51 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

KARZAI GETS TOUGH: The Afghan government is cracking down on corruption and insubordination by provincial warlords. A long article, but well worth reading. Karzai seems to be putting his reputation on the line for a good cause. Noticeably missing, however, is any indication that the US supports Karzai and is committed to ending corruption and insubordination.

Nonetheless, Donald Rumsfeld said, in an interview with Jim Hoagland, that "U.S. troops [will] become more involved in civil-military projects that will create conditions for 'people to come home, to rebuild and resettle.'" I hope Rumsfeld recognizes that coming home, rebuilding and resettling will not be possible if Karzai can't wipe out corruption and warlord rule.
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# Posted 1:45 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

BLOWING IN THE WIND: North Korea seems to be playing good cop/bad cop with the US. Yesterday we heard about the threats. Today we hear that North Korea wants to save its 1994 pact with the US. Someone ought to tell the North Koreans that good cop/bad cop isn't a smart game to play when your back is against the wall.

Also, see Clinton NSC chief Anthony Lake's op-ed on North Korea, which responds in a measured, non-partisan manner to much of the unfair criticism of his North Korea policy which filled editorial pages after North Korea's recent admission that it had a secret weapons program.
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Wednesday, November 06, 2002

# Posted 9:02 AM by Ariel David Adesnik  

OXBLOG PRESENTS: BEER & BUSH. Beer -- a liquid. Bush -- a president. This Thursday at 4pm, in the legendary pub known as The Turf, OxBlog will host the first of its
weekly discussions of politics and current events. All are welcome.

Directions: The Turf is not easy to find. The best way to get there, starting from the Bodleian main entrance, is to walk under the Bridge of Sighs and then turn into the narrow alley on your left, right after the Bridge. Follow the alley to the end, and you're there.
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Tuesday, November 05, 2002

# Posted 10:54 AM by Ariel David Adesnik  

DARK HORSE PREDICTIONS: If I win the election-night prediction-fest, God save us all. Anyway, here goes:

Turnout: 100%
Spoiled Ballots: 0
Pregnant Chads: Their own damn fault.

Senate: Democrats -- 2, Republicans -- 1, Baath -- 97.
House: In permanent recess.

State by State Results:

Arkansas - W.J. Clinton (Baath)
Minnesota - Ventura (Baath)
South Carolina - Thurmond (R)
Missouri - Carnahan (D)
Georgia - McKinney (Baath)
Tennessee - A. Gore Jr. (Baath)
New Jersey - Torricelli (D)
Texas - Koresh (Baath)
North Carolina - E. Dole (Baath)

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# Posted 10:41 AM by Ariel David Adesnik  

VLADIMIR PUTIN, TERRORIST: Foreign affairs pundit Fareed Zakaria has a razor-sharp op-ed in today's Post thrashing the Bush administration for its support of Russia. As I said in the opening days of the Moscow theater crisis, the Russia's state-sponsored terrorism has made that of the Chechens seem mild in comparison.

Zakaria finishes his piece with a damning reminder that, as a candidate, Bush called for an end to aid for Russia on the grounds that "The nations of the free world [must] condemn the -- you know, the killing of innocent women and children."

All in all, Zakaria's column is a nice to counterpoint to his earlier essay in the New Yorker, which I criticized for its amoral realpolitik.
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# Posted 10:28 AM by Ariel David Adesnik  

AND NOW THE BAD NEWS: Afghanistan is still a mess. According to Human Rights Watch, Ismail Khan is running a private dictatorship in the state of Herat. Rumsfeld has described Khan as "an appealing person . . . thoughtful, measured and self-confident."

US Commander Lt. Gen. Dan McNeill asserted that "for the near term, these regional leaders -- while they might appear unsavory to some, and some accuse them of having sordid pasts -- they are providing a degree of security and stability out and away from Kabul." In other words, if the Bush administration doesn't care enough about democracy to send US troops beyond Kabul, why the hell should McNeill give local dictators a hard time?
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# Posted 10:22 AM by Ariel David Adesnik  

TIME TO TALK TURKEY: Things are still looking good in Ankara, where the leader of the victorious semi-Islamic party in Sunday's elections has announced that he favors close relations with the United States and would, under the right conditions, participate in war against another Muslim state, i.e. Iraq.

While hardly evidence of my wisdom, I will note that the NY Times supports my position on Turkish politics exactly. The Post was somewhat less enthusiastic.
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# Posted 10:11 AM by Ariel David Adesnik  

PREDATOR DRONES KICK ASS: Josh observed that yesterday's attack on Al Qaeda forces in Yemen indicates that the War on Terror hasn't lost out to the War on Iraq. I hope. My real concern, though, is that the Bush administration has also forgotten about the War on Iraq. The UN negotiations have taken far too long, even if the optimists are right and they will be over soon.
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# Posted 10:06 AM by Ariel David Adesnik  

BETTER LATE THAN NEVER: The upcoming NATO summit in Prague is set to approve a rapid reaction force which would enable the Alliance to play a significant role in future crises. The summit is also set to approve membership for seven new nations in Eastern Europe. Take that, Putin!

Bonus fact for European history buffs: The German ambassador to NATO is named "von Moltke".

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# Posted 6:12 AM by Daniel  

THIS THIRD PREDICTS: I don't want this to be like the second Presidential debate of 2000 where everyone agrees. So here is where I part ways with Josh:

Minnesota - Mondale (D)
Colorado - Strickland (D)
New Hampshire - Sununu (R)

Like Josh I am making the bold prediction that the Republicans will keep the House. It's a shame that so few House races are competitive--Iowa does it right with an an independent bureau that is not allowed to take political considerations such as voting patterns and party registration into account when it draws boundaries.
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Monday, November 04, 2002

# Posted 10:39 AM by Ariel David Adesnik  

I WISH I WEREN'T IGNORANT: Amnesty International has released a report which asserts that there is "clear evidence" of Israeli war crimes committed in the West Bank. While I wish I knew enough to evaluate the validity of such charges, I'm willing to hazard a prediction about what we can expect in the next few days: 1) The American left, along with official spokesman for all sorts of Middle Eastern governments, will cite the Amnesty report as vindication of their views on Israeli brutality. 2) The European media, with a helping hand from the Times and the Post, will publicize such criticism to no end. 3) Investigative reporters will eventually reveal that Amnesty never had any evidence in the first place. Remember the Jenin "massacre"?
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# Posted 10:33 AM by Ariel David Adesnik  

AT LEAST THEY VOTE IN ISTANBUL: As expected, an Islamic party callling for moderation and tolerance won by a landslide in Turkish elections. Will the US recognize that it now has a chance to showcase a Muslim democracy at work? (And that it should all it can to make sure that it does work, rather than falling to another military revolt?)
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Sunday, November 03, 2002

# Posted 2:35 PM by Daniel  

BIBI BACK? Rueters says so, as long as early elections will be held. The agreement would still allow him to challenge Sharon for Likud leadership.
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Friday, November 01, 2002

# Posted 2:26 PM by Daniel  

SUPERIORITY COMPLEX. David Brooks, discussing the downsides of "democratized elitism," says that it creates a fragmented society characterized by an easygoing relativism, and leads to national stagnation. I think that's a bit too strong. Whether you agree or not, it's a thought provoking piece.
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# Posted 12:09 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

KRAUTHAMMER VS. BUSH: Charlie K. asks "Why does the president, who is pledged to disarming Hussein one way or the other, allow Powell even to discuss a scheme that is guaranteed to leave Saddam Hussein's weapons in place?"

If you read OxBlog, Chuck, you would know that the President cannot control his own advisers, presumably because he does not even know what his own policy on Iraq is.
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Thursday, October 31, 2002

# Posted 10:58 AM by Ariel David Adesnik  

NIGHT OF THE LIVING DEAD: So, is Osama alive or not? James Robbins tries to figure it all out. In the meantime, Happy Halloween!
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# Posted 10:50 AM by Ariel David Adesnik  

THE CHALLENGES OF OCCUPATION: Daniel Benjamin, a top counterrorism analyst, has a sharply-worded editorial in today's WashPost challenging the Bush administration's assumption that the occupation can be modelled on the occuaption of Japan.

Reading between the lines, Benjamin's point is much the same as the one made by diplomatic historian John Dower last week: neither man believes Bush is committed enough to nation-building and democratization to make the occuaption work.

As I have made clear before, I am strongly for a postwar occupation and nation-building effort. But I do not believe it will be a guaranteed success. It will depend on the will of the US-led occupying forces more than it does on "deep historical forces" such as Islamic culture.
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# Posted 10:31 AM by Ariel David Adesnik  

TESTING BUSH'S SINCERITY: This Sunday, Turkey will hold national elections. Justice and Development, the party now leading in polls, has Islamic roots. The last time an Islamic party came to office, the army forced it out.

If the President is serious about bringing democracy to the Middle East, he will have to instruct the Turkish generals that the voters, and not the military, must decide who governs. If the United States lets the military return, it will have lost a critical chance to demonstrate to the Muslims everywhere that an American victory in the war on terror will liberate them as well.
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Wednesday, October 30, 2002

# Posted 3:20 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

SEEN HIS SOUL LATELY? Just in case feelings of sympathy for Vladimir Putin have been welling up inside you, read this analysis of the hostage crisis by Russia expert David Satter.
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# Posted 2:46 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

I'M A BAD RUSSIAN: According to a Russian poll mentioned in both the NY Times and WashPost, 85% percent of Russians support Putin's decision to raid the captured theater despite the human cost. How the Chechens managed to take the theater in the first place will remain a mystery, since Putin's allies in the Duma are resisting all efforts to launch an investigation.
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# Posted 11:51 AM by Ariel David Adesnik  

IMAGE CONSULTANT WANTED: Josh says Putin shouldn't have offered the Chechens even a "token" concession, since "it is very much for the good of the entire world that the terrorists came out of this so badly." First of all, if I were one of the 120 people who died because of the Russian government's incompetence, it would certainly have preferred if my president had made a token concession. As for the terrorists coming out of this badly, I have to disagree. Their objective was to show that Moscow is not secure and, if possible, reduce the Russian presence in Chechnya. Instead, they managed to show the entire world how brutal, incompetent, deceptive and undemocratic the Putin regime is. Talk about two for the price of one.

Moreover, in light of the fact that the Chechens' cause is justified -- even though its tactics are unacceptable -- I would have been glad if the hostage taking went as planned and Putin had to negotiate over Chechnya. What he has done there is far more brutal than what the Chechens did in Moscow. While I do not hesitate to refer to the Chechens as terrorists, I think there is no question that the Russian armed forces deserve that accolade ten times over.

Finally, I recognize that I jumped the gun when I wrote that the terrorists in question "are Chechen guerrillas, not Al Qaeda operatives." Such a rigid distinction is unwarranted in light of the London Telegraph's report that "'There were definitely Arab terrorists in the building with links to al-Qa'eda," [according to a] senior Western diplomat. Nonetheless, there was nothing in the Telegraph article which suggested that there were any actual members of Al Qaeda in Moscow or that Al Qaeda had any role in setting the objectives of the Moscow operation. Thus, I think my point that the Chechen terrorists could have been negotiated with stands uncorrected.
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# Posted 11:36 AM by Ariel David Adesnik  

SECOND IN THE MOTION: As Josh pointed out, Harvard has a great site compiling internal documents from Iraq.

One question, Josh: Why did you decide to the post the text of a document focusing on Iraqi brutality in the 1980s, instead of the 1990s? Surely, any competent idiotarian would point out that the United States was Iraq's formal ally at the time and showed no concern for his brutality.
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# Posted 11:29 AM by Ariel David Adesnik  

MORE ON JAPAN: In response to my post on eminent diplomatic historian John Dower, John Monasch sent in the following from Japan:
A month ago, NHK satellite was running some documentary [Approx. Title: "The Road to Pearl Harbor 1931-1941"] about some American Japanophile diplomat in the 1930's and his American-o-phile counter-parts and how their devotion to improving relations and understanding between the 2 countries at the time, tragically.....you get the picture.

It was pretty dull and I was only watching it because I was on stranded on the sofa with a fever. But they interviewed Dower to comment on the political atmosphere in Japan in the 30's. He talked about how it was impossible to criticize the government. Suddenly, Dower - at least according to the Japanese voice over - went off on a tangent and started talking about how America, after 9/11, had become the same way. Everyone was affraid to criticize the Bush administration in a similar fashion to Japan in the late 1930's. I couldn't find a transcript but I talked to a producer who confirmed what I thought I had heard (my Japanese is good but not native level).

Good God! Here is an award winning MIT professor (hey, wait a minute) telling all of Japan that post-9/11 America was the same as 1930's Japan...
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# Posted 9:33 AM by Daniel  

THOMAS FRIEDMAN on "that democracy thing." He uses lots of cute catchphrases, but his overall point in his last few columns about democracy seems to be this: democracy is a necessary but insufficient step for reform in the Arab world.
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Tuesday, October 29, 2002

# Posted 9:13 AM by Ariel David Adesnik  

STICKING UP FOR JIMMY: Josh linked to Daniel Drezner's fisking of Carter's op-ed in the NYT. I think a better idea might to be read Dan's defense of Carter's record as president, which is a must for those who tend to dismiss Carter out of hand because of his bad reputation. Carter was a flawed president, but we have him to thank for the Camp David accord, the Panama Canal treaty, and the elevation of human rights to global prominence. For those of you who want to read one solid book on Carter's foreign policy, check out Gaddis Smith's Morality, Reason, and Power. It's worth it.
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# Posted 8:43 AM by Ariel David Adesnik  

THE EVIDENCE MOUNTS: The NY Times reports "disclosures that doctors were almost completely unprepared to treat the [Russian] hostages for gas-related problems." In addition,
there were no doctors on hand at the theater to provide emergency treatment to the most seriously injured hostages, a standard practice in disasters.
In fact, there weren't even ambulances on hand, so the hostages had to be taken to the hospital on city buses. BUSES! That is incompetence.

The Times also reports that Putin's justification for the raid -- that the terrorists were beginning to execute hostages -- was a transparent lie. Moreover, the raid was decided on almost immediately after the hostages were taken. All this is strong evidence that Putin thought he had a brilliant plan that would both save the hostages and avoid all negotiations. What went wrong? Incompetence.

As for your counterfactual, Josh, I'm less than convinced. Imagine if a Western government decided that it would sacrifice 100 of its own citizens to save another 700 before exhausting all options for saving the entire lot. Imagine the outcry if George Bush (or God forbid, Bill Clinton) decided that he had the right to decide who would live and who would die. Moreover, those most likely to die from the gas are the old, the sick, and the children. Sacrificing them seems particularly callous.

Finally, in comparative perspective, I think there is good reason to believe that such stand-offs can be resolved through negotiation. The typical deal involves safe passage for the terrorists to a foreign destination along with a token concession to their political agenda. Moreover, I question your [Josh's] assumption that the terrorists were willing to use their explosives. These are Chechen guerrillas, not Al Qaeda operatives. In other words, they are nationalists, not suicidal murderers. They have what to gain from negotiation.
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Sunday, October 27, 2002

# Posted 1:23 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

RUSSIAN BRUTALITY: According to a major story in the Washington Post, all but one of the hostages killed in Russia this weekend died because their own government's reckless use of poison gas to incapacitate the Chechen terrorists holding them hostage. Moreover, the special forces who carried out the raid to liberate the hostages executed Chechen terrorists who had fallen unconscious because of said gas.

I wish I could say that this sort of brutality and incompetence were surprising. But they are not. Rather they are the signature of the Putin government, whose undemocratic behavior has rendered it ever more insensitive to the well-being of the citizens it is supposed to represent and protect.
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# Posted 1:03 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

JAPAN AND IRAQ COMPARED: John Dower, the foremost Western historian of Japan and U.S.-Japanese relations, has an in-depth column in today's NYT comparing the US occupation of Japan to a potential US occupation of Iraq. In short, he does not believe that a potential occupation of Iraq would be anywhere near as successful as the occupation of Japan was. However, he explicity rejects the idea that Arab or Islamic culture would prevent the democratization of Iraq. While Dower presents numerous arguments to support his point, it is clear that his pessimism rests on one central foundation: a refusal to believe that the Bush administration will be committed enough to democratization to make it work.

For those with a serious interest in the American occupation of Japan, I cannot recommend Dower's recent book on that subject, Embracing Defeat, highly enough. It is already classic, winning a well-deserved Pulitzer Prize as well as the National Book Award and numerous other honors. His other works are well-worth reading as well.
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# Posted 12:49 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

WOMEN VOTING IN THE MIDDLE EAST? As Tom Friedman reports, Bahrain held its first parliamentary elections yesterday. Women did not just have the right to vote, but were encouraged to do so by the government.
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# Posted 9:52 AM by Ariel David Adesnik  

ANTI-WAR = ANTI-SEMITIC? From the Sunday Times of London:
"...around the edges of the [anti-war] rally [in New York], copies of the "Protocols of the Elders of Zion," the classic forged document of nineteenth-century anti-Semitism, were being sold. According to a report in the New York Sun, this peddling of anti-Semitic tripe was not entirely accidental..."
Thanks to Andrew Sullivan for the link. (Note: The text is only available on Andrew's site.)

If you need some cheering up after reading about anti-Semitism, read this. If I didn't know better, I'd say The Onion hacked into the NYT website.

Last but not least, how's this for irony: "Participants [in the anti-war protest] said the shootings in and around [DC] in the last three weeks had kept people from planning to visit Washington." Hmmm.... Al Qaeda supporter murders Americans at random and fewer people show up to protest the war against terrorism. Anyone have Sherlock Holmes' phone number?
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