# Posted 10:16 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

THE LATEST POLLS: Seven out of ten Americans approve of the President's handling of the war on terror. Seven out of ten would also give UN inspectors several more months to search for weapons in Iraq. Seven in ten also said that the US should go public with its own evidence that Iraq has weapons of mass destruction.

So what does this all mean? As Tocqueville once said, public opinion contradicts itself. OK, so what does that mean? According to scholars, the public often has conflicting prefences and thus does not decide what it wants until elected officials persuade it that one course of action is better than another. Thus, if the President can take advantage of his State of the Union address to make a strong argument for invading Iraq -- and the Democrats continue to provide no clear alternative -- the public will follow the President.

For the moment, the invasion of Iraq has become a partisan issue. 58% of Democrats are against it, 55% of Independents for it, and 78% of Republicans for it. As I see it, the issue here is trust. Republicans are sure that Bush has evidence that Iraq has banned weapons, independents are somewhat sure and Democrats doubt it. If, in the State of the Union, Bush says that he knows Iraq has banned weapons -- even if he doesn't produce a smoking gun -- expect a considerable increase in independent and Democratic support for an invasion.

While the European public won't trust Bush until he has hard evidence, Americans will recognize that Bush will be putting his credibility on the line by saying flat out in the most important speech of the year that he knows Iraq has what it says it doesn't have. Bush knows the importance of living up to unequivocal commitments. His father said "Read my lips: no new taxes" -- and was punished heavily for breaking his promise.

Bush's overall approval ratings stands at 59%. However, he has fallen below the 50% mark for his management of the economy and 61% think his tax cut benefits the rich (in contrast to 23% who see it as even-handed). But when it comes to Iraq, those numbers don't matter. Only hardcore opponents of the war think it is a diversion from economic problems at home. As the WaPo points out, only 45% of the public supported the Gulf War before it began. It might have added that even that number was very high by historical standards. If Bush goes, America will be behind him. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion