OxBlog

Sunday, May 04, 2003

# Posted 7:21 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

MORE POLARIZATION: Jeff Hauser has written in to defend the WaPo's characterization of the American electorate as polarized.

To support his point, Jeff points to this op-ed by Bush pollster Matthew Dowd, which observes that presidential approval ratings have become increasingly dependent on voters' partisan identity. Before 1980, the difference between Democratic and Republican approval ratings for any given president tended to hold fast at about 30 percentage points. Since Reagan, the split has grown to 50 points.

The one point on which Dowd is evasive is the role of independent voters, which, according to Dowd, make up 20% of the electorate. I was under the impression that the percentage of independent voters has risen considerably over the past few decades. If so, then the apparent polarization Dowd describes is just a byproduct of the fact that moderate voters now prefer to identify themselves as independent, thus ensuring that a greater uniformity of views within both the Republican and Democratic parties.

If any of you out there know more about this, please drop a line.
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