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# Posted 11:44 PM by Ariel David Adesnik

UNDERSTANDING SISTANI: Over at Needlenose, Swopa has been observing the Shi'ites -- and specifically Ayatollah Sistani -- very carefully ever since the occupation began. Swopa is absolutely right that Sistani has a lot of talent when it comes to driving a hard bargain.

I think he is also right that the CPA is trying to put the best face on the fact Sistani has more influence than they are willing to admit.

But really, this all comes back to the question of what Sistani's true intentions are. On this point, Swopa writes that

We don't know -- and probably can't know -- exactly what type of government the Grand Ayatollah foresees for Iraq. It's even possible that he doesn't know himself. Sistani, after all, is not a lifelong politician; he's a religious scholar who has a history of avoiding political disputes.

Exactly. As I often say (drumroll please) the media has failed to provide evidence that Sistani has a fundamentalist agenda despite menacing-yet-vague statements about Sistani's intentions.

Six months ago, Swopa suggested that what Sistani and other Shi'ite clerics want is "a straightforward march to an Islamic fundamentalist state in Iraq". Yet he also conceded more recently that

In discussing this subject with others, I've sometimes been told that "but a majority of the Shiites don't want an Islamic state, or at least an Islamic theocracy."

This is very likely true. But the theocratic elements are also virtually the only organized Shiite bloc in the country, which gives them a large head start in any election/constitutional process.

That complicates the situation quite a bit, since Swopa argues that Sistani's influence comes from the absolute loyalty of Iraqi Shi'ites. Yet if the people have a very different vision of government from the Ayatollah, they may not decide to lend him their support, even if his political representatives campaign with a moderate face. Moreover, if Sistani keeps insisting on his total commitment to "democracy", Shi'ites opposed to an Islamic state may very well hold him to his word.

Finally, there are the Kurds and the Sunnis. I do not believe that a Shi'ite state can function with a 30-40% minority of (heavily armed) dissenters. Thus, I am more confident than Swopa that the US can extract concessions from Sistani concerning the rights of religious and ethnic minorities. While the United States doesn't command the loyalty of any constituency in the manner of Iraq's ethnic or religious leaders, their role as broker and as military trustee puts them in a position with considerable leverage, if used wisely.

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