OxBlog

Wednesday, August 18, 2004

# Posted 11:56 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

BODY COUNTS: Thanks to the spectacular and often spectacularly deceptive body counts produced by the US military during the Vietnam war, Americans have had an instinctive aversion to judging the success of their wars by the number of enemy soldiers killed.

While this sort of skepticism provided a healthy corrective to the statistical bent of Vietnam-era briefings, it is hard to shake the notion the number of opposing soldiers killed is an important indicator of our success on the battlefield. Phil Carter feels the same way and expresses something close to shock at the number of Sadrist militiamen the Marines have shot down in Najaf.

As Phil points out, these body counts reflect the fact that the militiamen fight in almost suicidal manner, apparently because of their total lack of training. Of course, one might say that this approach to combat reflects the militia fighters' passionate desire to become martyrs of Islam. By extension, it suggests that the morale of Sadr & Co. wouldn't break even if the US inflicted thousands of casualties.

Still, my gut says that Americans often overestimate the Muslim appetitle for death. While young men may prefer death, I suspect that their families do not want to lose any more sons.

Anyhow, the effect of a high-body count may not kick-in for some time, a fact that explains the current stalemate in Najaf, as reported on by the redoubtable John Burns of the NYT. On the other hand, Burns is now reporting that Sadr may have proposed negotiations because his military position is untenable.

NB: Phil also has excellent posts on occupation planning (or the lack thereof) and the inability of the VA to provide this war's veterans with the medical care they deserve.


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