OxBlog

Tuesday, October 05, 2004

# Posted 1:24 AM by Ariel David Adesnik  

THE POLLS: As usual, RCP is the place to go for the latest information. As their chart shows, Kerry's resurgence is for real (although RCP hasn't yet factored in the results from this WaPo/ABC survey which still shows Bush ahead by 5).

The question now is whether Kerry's resurgence will last. On specific issues, especially Iraq and the War on Terror, Bush still has a sizable lead in both in the WaPo survey that shows him 5 points ahead overall as well as the Gallup poll that shows him tied with Kerry.

However, in the Gallup poll, Kerry has made up a lot of ground on both issues. Whereas Kerry was 14 points behind Bush (41-55) on the question of who will do a better job in Iraq, the margin is now just seven (44-51). On terrorism, Bush's 61-34 lead has narrowed to 56-39. On the economy, Kerry has come from behind and turned a 45-51 deficit to a 51-45 advantage.

The question I have is whether presidential debates are governed by a law of diminishing returns. Assuming Kerry wins the second and third debates, will each of his victories result in a similar rise in the polls? Or have expectations now risen to the point where Kerry can only make up ground if Bush's performance is worse than ever before?

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