# Posted 3:57 PM by Patrick Belton  

HAMAS, 2.0?: Whither Hamas? The green party looks fairly set to poll strongly in today’s polls, and one of the two analytical questions which follows is this. With Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hizb ut Tahrir and a purported new Al Qa'eda presence in Gaza now outflanking Hamas on its extreme wing, how likely is the Islamic Resistance Movement from today to follow in the footsteps of the Provisional IRA and, like it, be trapped into moderation by enveloping democratic rhetoric, its own ambitions for power and from its outflanking on its radical wing (to switch peace processes, Islamic Jihad here taking the place of the Real IRA)? Put a different way, as Ha'aretz phrases it this evening, Does Hamas still want you dead? (with Islamic Jihad, at least you know where you stand).

So, Hamas (2.0?) – add to the above its talk of a 100-year hudna and its (more recently) expressed openness to discuss negotiations with Israel with its coalition partners, multiply by the rise of its political wing with a winning language of reform, and you see why observers like Birzeit’s Nader Said have raised the question whether Hamas by taking part in today’s elections has reached a point of no return. By taking part in the bashing together of legislative coalitions, Hamas will be forced to enunciate public reasons in favour of their policies such that in certain important fora at least they cannot say, contra their organisation’s driving motto, that Islam is the solution to everything. If true, the fact of its participation and cooptation would increase the PA's parastatal capacities precisely at its Achilles's Heel where it is weakest, in its abilities to control paramilitarism in its bailiwick, and especially those attacks upon civilians which divide the paramilitaries acting in its territories from the established laws of war commonly accepted by the grand sweep of humanity. The other question of the moment about Hamas is intertwined - what factions and cleavages can be traced within an organisation frequently depicted as monolithic and lock-in-step? The elections being over, activists and candidates may be slightly more willing to talk at least on background to differences in view within the organization.

The second analytical question concerns likely dynamics within a coalition between Hamas, Fateh and a third party - let's say perhaps for the sake of international credibility the list formed in the present elections by Salam Fayed and Hanan Ashrawi. Coalition juggling begins when the count ends and plays out until the ministerial composition of the next government is finalised at the end of February. The legislature itself plays little actual political role apart from setting up wrangling for the makeup of the cabinet, where power is exercised. Given that Hamas's strong showing at the polls today has been a foregone conclusion, the interesting politics takes place after. Now.

Asked, not answered. But I’ll get moving toward making my best stab at both. (2) opinions -- Add your opinion