OxBlog

# Posted 1:32 PM by Taylor Owen

PESKY MOVING GOALPOSTS: Michael J. Totten, guest blogging for Sullivan, points to what has always been relatively intuitive but was once considered heretical.

Those inside and outside Israel who believed disarming Hezbollah by force was possible in a short time frame were supremely delusional. It’s not 1967 anymore, when Israel could defeat three Arab armies in six days. Hezbollah is a guerrilla army, as well as a terrorist army, and asymmetrical warfare is hard. Look at how much longer it is taking the US to put down a Baathist insurgency in Iraq compared with the Baathist army in Iraq when Saddam Hussein was in power.

He also quotes from a recent Jerusalem Post piece, stating again what many uttered to much outcry at the beginning of the invasion:

Israel has essentially given up hope of Hizbullah being disarmed, and instead is now concentrating on ensuring that an arms embargo called for in UN Security Council resolution 1701 be implemented, The Jerusalem Post has learned.
Furthermore, senior Israeli officials have made it clear in recent days during talks with foreign governments that Israel realizes a Hizbullah presence south of the Litani River is unavoidable, if for no other reason than because the organization is so well rooted there that the only way to get rid of Hizbullah would be to evacuate the entire region.

Given this, the strategic question then becomes, even if they knew perfectly well that they wouldn’t be able to disarm Hezbollah, was the damage done to Hezbollah’s operational capabilities worth the effort and consequences? Given the huge upswing in support for Hezbollah, the marginalization of the Lebanese state and the increased regional bellicosity of Iran and Syria, I think the answer is a pretty clear no. Either way, Israelis will decide, and the fate of Olmert is the most likely litmus test.

(6) opinions -- Add your opinion

Comments:

Given the huge upswing in support for Hezbollah, the marginalization of the Lebanese state

I generally agree, but one question is whether Hezbollah will face any backlash now that the war is over. It's pretty much a given that Lebanese would favor Hezbollah over Israel when Israel was actively attacking. However, there are probably also some Lebanese who, while still blaming Israel, are also pretty upset at Hezbollah for their provocations.

It's not completely clear that the Lebanese state has been marginalized (any more than it was, as it already was prevented from establishing control in Hezbollah areas). Some commentators on the ground suggest that a lot of resentment towards Hezbollah was generated as well. However, right now it doesn't look all that likely that that resentment will lead to the Lebanese army patrolling the border instead of Hezbollah. (If it did, then Israel would have achieved one of their objectives.)

# posted by

John Thacker : 2:19 PM

"The increased regional bellicosity of Iran and Syria."

Do you mean that Iran and Syria have gained in prestige? Or have become more aggressive?

Because the word "bellicosity" suggests that they were once less bellicose, i.e. hostile to the US and Israel.

But that clearly is not the case.

# posted by

Ariel David Adesnik : 2:45 PM

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

# posted by

Taylor Owen : 3:06 PM

Hey David, I am not sure why saying that their bellicosity has increased negates a previous level of bellicosity? Perhaps though you are right that it would be clearer to say that their bellicosity has both increased as well as become more confident or brazen.

# posted by

Taylor Owen : 3:09 PM

Those inside and outside Israel who believed disarming Hezbollah by force was possible in a short time frame were supremely delusional.

Isn't the best argument for this that Israel had already spent fifteen years in total control of southern Lebanon, and failed to eliminate Hizbullah during that time. To imagine they could root them out in a matter of weeks, after Hizbullah had had six years to dig themselves into secure positions, was unreasonable.

# posted by

Balfegor : 7:04 AM

This article is very much helpful and i hope this will be an useful information for the needed one. Keep on updating these kinds of informative things…
IT Services In Ahmedabad

# posted by

Aditi Jain : 8:09 AM