Tuesday, October 10, 2006

# Posted 11:16 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

OBAMA EYES THE WHITE HOUSE: At least according to David Brooks, in discussion with Ray Suarez of PBS Newshour:

DAVID BROOKS: ...we've been hearing rumors that Barack Obama has been more seriously considering running for president. He told Jonathan Alter of Newsweek that it was almost 50-50. And I think one of the factors in his decision is this race. Can Harold Ford, can a black candidate win in the upper south?

RAY SUAREZ: Why is that? Explain that a little bit more.

DAVID BROOKS: Well, as you know, there's a lot -- Barack Obama is the dream candidate. He's the only guy in the country among Democrats who really generates genuine enthusiasm.

But there are a whole series of questions -- I think, probably in his own mind, but certainly in a lot of people's minds -- about his viability. One is the age issue. But second is, can a black candidate win and carry enough of these swing states that he would need to?

And the thinking is, if Harold Ford can carry Tennessee, then Barack Obama could probably carry a state like Tennessee. And that really does open up all sorts of possibilities for the party.

Obama might find the attraction of the White House even more compelling if mainstream Democrats continue to turn on Hillary Clinton.
(1) opinions -- Add your opinion

The most important factor in the 2008 race gets the least attention - its not going to be conservative vs. liberal or even dem vs. repub - its going to be about Washington Insider Vs. Washington Outsider.

You can't get much more inside than a US Senator, but as a first termer new to DC Obama can run as a 'young man in a hurry' ala JFK - just inside enough to know waht's 'wrong' with DC and how to fix it.

After 2008 Obama will be too 'inside' to run as a young man in a hurry AND face a possible challenge from another moderate minority who might get elected governor somewhere - who can run as a true outsider and a leader, which a senator can't.

So its 2008 for president for Obama - after that, he's just veep material.
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