OxBlog

Wednesday, March 14, 2007

# Posted 4:06 PM by Taylor Owen  

ASSESSING THE SURGE: What metrics should we be using to measure the success of the surge? Some are beginning to note a decrease in bombings in Baghdad, but given that it was widely believed that the insurgents (of some stripes anyways) would simply lay low until the surge was over, is this really a viable indicator? The first battle of Fallujah being a good lesson in this regard. Should we instead be looking for signs of political progress? Should the relative calm created by the troop presence, even if somewhat artificial and temporary, be seen as a window of political opportunity? If so, what conciliatory signs are we looking for? Further, what are the concequences of not seeing them?

Labels: ,

(12) opinions -- Add your opinion

Comments:
The surge is a joke just like the war on terror.
 
Number and type of attacks are certainly a poor "Measure of Effectiveness" for the surge. If we're smart we will examine refugee flows, economic activity, internal city movement and other indirect metrics of how people feel about their personal, economic and social asecurity. While attacks on U.S. Forces and consequently deaths are down significantly since the beginning of the surge, this means little for the long term end of the conflict. Since the Iraq conflict is so complex, with hundreds of different combatting groups with as many ideologies, the best we can hope for is to reach a tipping point where improved training of Iraqi forces meets real progress on the politcal and economic fronts reduces violence to manageable levels.
 
Taylor makes a valid point about how a reduction in attacks is not a reliable indicator of success. But if the number of attacks had stayed the same or risen higher, we could probably agree that it was an indication of failure. Thus, a reduction is not irrelvant, even if should not be equated with success.
 
"this means little for the long term end of the conflict"

which leads to the question, do we really expect to see the long term end of the conflict before the surge is complete? I dont. At best we would see substantial political progress that would reduce the conflict. Even if we didnt see that, but the surge bought more time for train and equip, and left a more efficient Iraqi force in place, would that be a success?
 
The greater volume of actionable intelligence coming in to the Coalition is significant. These tips not only help drive down attacks by letting us shut down insurgent groups, they provide a direct metric of how people feel about their personal security. If Baghdadis didn't think the surge was going to work, they wouldn't be helping it.

Taylor, given that it is widely believed that the insurgents have to kill in significant numbers to be important, how long will their reduced effectiveness in doing so be irrelevant?
 
The decrease in bombs is one of metrics but it shouldnt be the only one. Also how to measure sustainability of the effort since just one security failure can tilt the perception?

The problem is that due to poor job media are making we just get a caricature of what is happening in Iraq. Usually for bad.
 
libhawk, I agree. bgates, I certainly agree about actionable intelligence being a useful metric. The time issue isn't so clear cut though. It may not matter whether the relative calm is artificial if significant progress is made in its presence. However, if elements of the insurgency are simply watching events unfold in order to come back stronger and more effective, as they have in the past, then obviously time is a more nuanced measure. The question for me is how much progress can be made so that if the insurgency rises, as is very likely, what will the response of the victims be. Will they seek protection from the insurgency, as has certainly been the case in Anbar, or will they have enough faith in the occupation and government to take the risk of standing up to the insurgency. This equation surely depends somewhat on the political reforms that take place during the 'calm'.
 
Welcome to our website for you World of Warcraft Gold,Wow Gold,Cheap World of Warcraft Gold,cheap wow gold,buy cheap wow gold,real wow gold,sell wow gold, ...
Here wow gold of 1000 gold at $68.99-$80.99 ,World Of Warcraft Gold,buy wow gold,sell world of warcraft gold(wow gold),buy euro gold wow Cheap wow gold,cheapest wow gold store ... buy euro gold wow wow gold--buy cheap wow gold,sell wow gold.welcome to buy cheap wow gold--buy wow gold cheap, easy, wow gold purchasing.World of Warcraft,wow gold Super ...
We can have your wow gold,buy wow gold,wow gold game,world of warcraft gold, wow Gold Cheap wow, Cheap wow gold,world of warcraft gold deal,Cheap WOW Gold ...

Welcome to our website for you World of Warcraft Gold,Wow Gold,Cheap World of Warcraft Gold,wow gold,buy cheap wow gold,real wow gold,sell wow gold, ...
Here wow gold of 1000 gold at $68.99-$80.99,World Of Warcraft Gold,buy wow gold,sell world of warcraft gold(wow gold),buy gold wow lightninghoof instock Cheap wow gold,cheapest wow gold store ...
wow gold--buy cheap wow gold,sell wow gold.welcome to buy cheap wow gold--cheap, easy, wow gold purchasing.World of Warcraft,wow gold Super ...
Wow gold- Gold for buy gold wow lightninghoof instock EU-Server: ...wow Gold EU: starting from 84,99?; 3000 WoW Gold EU: starting from 119,99?. wow Gold- Leveling Services: ...
We can have your wow Gold,buy wow Gold,wow Gold game,wow gold, Cheap wow Gold, Cheap World of Warcraft Gold,world of warcraft gold deal,buy cheap wow gold,Cheap WOW Gold ...

Here wow Gold of 1000 gold at $68.99-$80.99,World Of Warcraft Gold,wow gold buy wow Gold,sell world of warcraft gold(wow gold),Cheap wow gold,cheapest World of Warcraft Gold store ...
 
Welcome to our website for you World of Warcraft Gold,Wow Gold,Cheap World of Warcraft Gold,cheap wow gold,buy cheap wow gold,real wow gold,sell wow gold, ...wow powerleveling Here wow gold of 1000 gold at $68.99-$80.99 ,World Of Warcraft Gold,buy wow gold,sell world of warcraft gold(wow gold),buy euro gold wow Cheap wow gold,cheapest wow gold store ... buy euro gold wow wow gold--buy cheap wow gold,sell wow gold.wow powerleveling welcome to buy cheap wow gold--cheap, easy, powerleveling wow gold purchasing.World of Warcraft,wow gold Super ...
We can have your wow gold,buy wow gold,wow gold game,world of warcraft gold, wow Gold Cheap wow, Cheap wow gold,world of warcraft gold deal,Cheap WOW Gold ...

Welcome to our website for you World of Warcraft Gold,Wow Gold,Cheap World of Warcraft Gold,wow gold,buy cheap wow gold,real wow gold,sell wow gold, ...
Here wow gold of 1000 gold at $68.99-$80.99,powerleveling World Of Warcraft Gold,buy wow gold,sell world of warcraft gold(wow gold),buy gold wow lightninghoof instock Cheap wow gold,cheapest wow gold store ...
wow gold--buy cheap wow gold,sell wow gold.welcome to buy cheap wow gold--cheap, easy, wow gold purchasing.World of Warcraft,wow gold Super ...
Wow gold- Gold for buy gold wow lightninghoof instock EU-Server: ...wow Gold EU: starting from 84,99?; 3000 WoW Gold EU: starting from 119,99?. wow Gold- Leveling Services: ...
We can have your wow Gold,buy wow Gold,wow Gold game,wow gold, Cheap wow Gold, Cheap World of Warcraft Gold,world of warcraft gold deal,buy cheap wow gold,Cheap WOW Gold ...

Here wow Gold of 1000 gold at $68.99-$80.99,World Of Warcraft Gold,buy wow Gold,sell world of warcraft gold(wow gold),Cheap wow gold,cheapest World of Warcraft Gold store ...
 
And, a real one from replica Hermes bags comes with a key set and engraved lock.If you really have no idea about a good one and a poor you can refer to your friends who are familiar with this.I guess that's like pocket change for posh spice, but it made me think about the obscene price of these bags and why this is so.
 
Post a Comment


Home