# Posted 3:45 AM by Patrick Porter  

POLITICAL ESTABLISHMENT THEORY: For the past decade or so, I've had a little theory about Primary contests in the US.

It seems that the political establishment of both parties has great resilience, more than is often assumed. It can mobilise money, people, contacts, rumours, and primal fear better than even the most exciting challengers.

Of course, this 'establishment' concept is relative rather than absolute - most folk who become serious candidates for the presidency have serious money, influence and elite interest behind them somewhere in the background. But some are more establishment than others.

So in 2000, Bush junior crushed 'maverick' McCain in 2000 after a promising initial campaign, while Al Gore hammered Bill Bradley. In 2004, a patrician John Kerry overcame Howard Dean.

In 2008, it seemed that Hillary Clinton almost had the nomination by birthright, by dynastic association and by her core place in American public life. It seemed that she would dominate against John Edwards the populist anti-poverty campaigner and Barak Obama, the charismatic candidate branding himself explicitly as an outsider against the defunct Washington status quo.

For a while there, it seemed that this theory would be vindicated. But now it is no so clear. Partly as a result of the missteps of the Clintons, partly because of the kind of momentum Taylor discusses below, and maybe because there is an anti-dynastic sentiment coming to life in this campaign.

The Republicans, for the first time in years, don't have a clear establishment candidate, and it isn't even clear whether they have a homogeneous establishment. Their powerful backers are fractured between fiscal conservatives, small government libertarians and big-spending social engineers, between socially conservative evangelical Christians and socially progressive economic liberals.

After the implosion of Rudi Guliani's candidacy, and the strain of Romney and Huckabee trying to out-flank one another from the right, John McCain emerges as the one who can cobble together some kind of coalition.

Its hard to predict, but I suspect that if we wins the nomination, his fortunes will rise and fall with the success or failure of the 'surge.' He has criticised the Bush Administration's execution of policy, but identifies himself with the policy itself. He has lashed himself unambiguously to the war in Iraq. In this sense the nexus between foreign policy and domestic politics will be very tight, even if Iraq stabilises and recovers in 2008 and stays off the back page.

McCain has occasionally 'flip flopped' in the past. Most notably by courting the religious right that he once denounced. But overall, he seems the one Republican whose position on vital issues, from immigration to Iraq to electoral finance reform - is built on fundamental views and a bit of courage.

In a perfect world, I'd have McCain as President and a more untested but truly soaring Obama as Vice President. Oh well, can't have everything. (3) opinions -- Add your opinion