# Posted 9:54 AM by Taylor Owen  

THE WAY FORWARD: A few thoughts from last night.

First, if you are going to read one analysis, read Josh's. As usual, he captures the central element of this thing going forward: that no matter how either camp tries to spin it, it will be the super delegates that will decide this (since neither will gain enough elected delegates) and that despite what both camps may believe, they actually don't have that much sway over the decisions of these delegates. They will go to either who has a clear lead in elected delegates, or, if no one does, then to who they think has the best chance of beating McCain.

So, if this is a given, then there are only two potential scenarios going forward. Obama could continue to slowly pull ahead in elected delegates with a close contest in Wyoming and a big win in Mississippi. Unless Hillary crushes him in Pennsylvania, it is over. Or, Hillary could start to close the elected delegate gap, bringing the super delegates into play, in which case this becomes a battle of who stacks up better against McCain.

If these are the two most likely scenarios, what should Obama do?

On the first, he has to pick away at the myth that this is about anything but elected delegates. This will in part happen naturally, as people start to look closely at just how she plans on winning this despite the numbers, and how the next three contests play out. It is critical that the math becomes the story. Part of this is also getting away from the idea that everything rides on Pennsylvania. From a numbers perspective, it just doesn't.

On the second option, that this comes down to convincing super delegates who is better poised to fight the general, it seems to me he has to confront three myths: That she has a more developed policy platform; that she has been better vetted and is not as susceptible to GOP smears; and that she has more experience.

On the first, given that there is a good stretch of time between now and Pennsylvania, why not do a series of serious policy speeches. The kind of long, boring, wonky events he did early in the primary. Do a serious foreign policy speech at Brookings flanked by his formidable advisers, a detailed environmental speech, a hard edged discussion of free trade, etc. He could do a different theme every two days, for two weeks. Bombard the press with policy. They will either report it, which is great, or simply report that he has a really detailed policy plan, which is also great.

On the second, that Hillary is better vetted, he has to fight back. This line of attack is simply ridiculous coming from the candidate who has some of highest negatives in recent memory, and for whom Rush Limbaugh is rooting. The fact that this angle has stuck is crazy. They are clearly trying to get into a mudsling and bring him down to their level. He does have to be careful about doing too much of this himself, but there are many ways to get a message out. His campaign has to make very clear what a GOP campaign against Hillary will look like. One way of triggering this discussions is to everyday ask why she hasn't released her tax forms. The answer is obvious and will lead to a range of inquiries. Let's get the ball rolling...

Finally, on experience, I say use Daschle, and others of his stature, more in the public. He was on Charlie Rose a couple of days ago, and made what was the best defense of Obama's qualifications I have ever seen. Daschle came to this campaign largely because of how Obama composed himself in the Senate, and what he thinks this means he is capable of. Get that message out. And shockingly, when he is not at a mic in Capital foyer, Daschle is eloquent, likable and persuasive.

One quick thing on the McCain match-up. Obama's overwhelming advantage here is that in a change election he simply brings way more to the table that Hillary. This message has to get out better. All of this 3am phone ringing nonsense only serves to highlight the advantage that he has. In this election, one main element of the desired change is away from fear based politics. He represents this. Use it.

All in all, my bet is that his supporters rally, the movement element of his campaign returns in response to Clinton's kitchen sink, he continues to raise astonishing amounts of money, he keeps his delegate lead through the next three primaries, and super delegates slowly trickle to him. Eventually, the reality will set in that she simply can't win. Fingers crossed...

Labels: Hillary Clinton, Obama

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# Posted 8:48 AM by Taylor Owen  

BROOKS NAILS IT: In tour-de-force oped, Brooks, rightly in my mind, identifies the Jefferson-Jackson dinner as the turning point of the Dem campaign. The whole thing is well worth a read and nicely captures what is at stake tonight. Quoted, at length:

Hillary Clinton gave a rousing partisan speech. Standing on a stage in the middle of the arena with her arms spread and her voice rising, she welcomed the next president and declared: “We are here tonight to make sure that next president is a Democrat!”

She described how change was going to come about in this country: through fighting. She used the word “fight” or “fought” 15 times in one passage of the speech, fighting for health care, fighting for education and women’s rights. Then she vowed to “turn up the heat” on Republicans. “They deserve all the heat we can give them!” she roared....

Clinton rode the passion of the crowd and delivered an energetic battle cry. And in many elections that sort of speech, delivered around the country, would clinch the nomination.

But this is a country in the midst of a crisis of authority, a country that has become disillusioned not only with one president, but with a whole system of politics. It’s a country that has lost faith not only with one institution, but with the entire set of leadership institutions. The cultural context, in other words, allowed for a much broader critique, a much more audacious vocabulary.

And Barack Obama leapt right in.

He spoke after 11 p.m. The crowd had been sitting for four hours. In the previous months, Obama had been criticized for being bland on the stump. But this night, he unleashed a zealous part of himself that has propelled his candidacy ever since.

His first big subject was belief itself. Instead of waging a partisan campaign as Clinton had just done, he vowed to address “not just Democrats, but Republicans and independents who’ve lost trust in their government but want to believe again.”

Then he made a broader attack on the political class, and without mentioning her, threw Clinton in with the decrepit old order. “The same old Washington textbook campaigns just won’t do,” he said, in a now familiar line. He said it was time to “finally tackle problems that George Bush made far worse but that had festered long before George Bush ever took office — the problems that we’ve talked about year after year after year.”

Obama sketched out a different theory of social change than the one Clinton had implied earlier in the evening. Instead of relying on a president who fights for those who feel invisible, Obama, in the climactic passage of his speech, described how change bubbles from the bottom-up: “And because that somebody stood up, a few more stood up. And then a few thousand stood up. And then a few million stood up. And standing up, with courage and clear purpose, they somehow managed to change the world!"

All true, but the most critical observation:

Clinton had sounded like a traditional executive, as someone who gathers the experts, forges a policy, fights the opposition, bears the burdens of power, negotiates the deal and, in crisis, makes the decision at 3 o’clock in the morning.

But Obama sounded like a cross between a social activist and a flannel-shirted software C.E.O. — as a nonhierarchical, collaborative leader who can inspire autonomous individuals to cooperate for the sake of common concerns.

Clinton had sounded like Old Politics, but Obama created a vision of New Politics. And the past several months have revolved around the choice he framed there that night. Some people are enthralled by the New Politics, and we see their vapors every day. Others think it is a mirage and a delusion. There’s only one politics, and, tragically, it’s the old kind, filled with conflict and bad choices.

Stewart, put it slightly more bluntly, but no less aptly, last night:

Are you uncomfortable in the role of chastising someone idealism?

And there is the nomination in a nutshell.

Labels: Hillary Clinton, Obama

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# Posted 5:37 PM by Taylor Owen  

THIS AND THAT, CLINTON AND OBAMA:

1. The rhetoric versus substance argument between Clinton and Obama is starting to wear thin. It simply isn't the case that she has a more developed policy platform. He just choses not to talk policy as much as she does on the stump. They both play to their strengths. I do tend to lean more to his policies than hers, particularly on foreign policy, and on many issues, they are simply so similar that it is irrelevant. On others, I don't know enough to judge. But I find myself more willing to trust him, and the people around him, than her. I do know, however, that he looks at policy through a lens that I am sympathetic to. In the end, this is what choosing a political leader is about.

2. People often conflate Obama's talk about, and display of, a new tone, with an over-reliance on rhetoric. The two are very different. In Audacity of Hope, he goes to great lengths to explain how he strives to bring a new tone to politics. One that doesn't demonize either the left or the right, points out the absurdities and inaccuracies on both, and moves forward a pragmatic progressive platform. He is also very clear on his plan to use a new coalition, rather than a base mobilization, to enable policy. A coalition that requires not just new policies, but a new vocabulary and style. These are not superficial, and cannot be written off as mere rhetorical excess. Maybe I'm delusional, see point 4, but I think he can pull this off. What's more, the brand of progressivism that he depicts, in his writing and in his policy positions, is one that I think is far better suited to the moment than Hillary's rehashing of 90's dynastic feuds.

3. A lot of people like Hillary because they want to pick a fight with the right. I get it. How sweet would it be, they argue, if the right was penalized for Bush with what they hate the most, a Clinton! The problem is, I am not convinced this will work this election. People aren't mad at Bush like they were in 2004, they are simply sick of him. They are tired of the acrimony on both sides, and want something new. Not just a change from Bush, but a change from the divisive ideological battles of the past 20 years. If Clinton wanted to pick a fight with the right, she should have ran in 2004. She missed her chance, and her moment.

4. I'm well aware that I am becoming a bit of a broken record on Obama. I tend to be a bit of a sap about these sorts of things. There is certainly a derangement that takes over when one gets absorbed in a certain type of politics. Joel Stein nailed it perfectly a few days ago, when in response to a Hillary supporting Obamamania-naysayer (boo) he stated:

Thing is, I've watched too many movies and read too many novels; I can't root against a person who believes he can change the world. The best we Obamaphiles can do is to refrain from embarrassing ourselves. And I do believe that we can resist making more "We Are the World"-type videos. We can resist crying jags. We can resist, in every dinner argument and every e-mail, the word "inspiration." Yes, we can.

yes i can...

Labels: Hillary Clinton, Obama

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# Posted 1:25 PM by Taylor Owen  

SHE IS NOT THE ONE: In a sense you have to sympathize with Hillary. She was supposed to be the one who inspired the enthusiasm of Bill's initial run. She was supposed to be the one who brought in the desired change away from the Bush years. She was supposed to be the one that the left rallied around. She was supposed to be the one that a new generation got excited about. She was supposed to be the one that made history. She was supposed to be the one that became a movement. She was supposed to be the one.

In almost any other election, she may very well have been.

The only problem, of course, is that this came along:



I suppose it's impossible to predict when a political campaign will/has become a movement. It certainly has that feeling now though, and they must know that this is what they are fighting against. Regardless, it can't be easy realizing that you may be on the wrong side of history, but increasingly you just get the feeling that the Clintons are getting in the way...

UPDATE: The Youtube seems to be down. The video is here though.

OK: Embed should be working again...

Labels: Hillary Clinton, Obama

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