# Posted 4:39 PM by Patrick Belton  

INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE TO AIDS BOOK TOUR: OxBlog's good friend, and Nathan Haler Greg Behrman has just released a groundbreaking work on the international response to AIDS, titled The Invisible People. Greg's work in this book is really astounding, and his enviable access to the halls of the White House, international organisations, and developing countries where the AIDS epidemic was playing out, permitted him to offer a much fuller account of the bureaucratic red tape, inexplicable blunders, egos, power plays, and pain and suffering, that went into the epidemic and the associated US response than any other source had done.

We'll be providing a fuller review of Greg's book here soon, but if you'd like to catch him yourself, here are the dates and cities of his book tour:

ATLANTA
Tuesday, June 8
8:00 PM
Outwrite Books
991 Piedmont Ave.
Co-sponsored by AID Atlanta

WASHINGTON, D.C.
Wednesday, June 9
7-9 PM
Co-sponsored by: UN Association / YouthAIDS
at UN Foundation (Connecticut Ave.)
-Cocktail Party

Thursday, June 10
7:00 PM
Borders Books & Music
1801 K Street NW
-Would particularly love to see some friendly faces at
this one!

Friday, June 11
6:00 PM
Global AIDS Alliance
Luna Books
1633 P Street, NW
-Cocktail party / 10 minute film screening

Monday, June 14
6:00PM
Council on Foreign Relations
1779 Massachussets Ave.
Co-sponsored by CFR, CSIS and DATA
-Amb Princeton Lyman presiding over discussion of book
and current policy
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# Posted 1:35 PM by David Adesnik  

APPROVAL NOT PENDING: Patrick, stop grossing out our readers. The swimwear-related image you mentioned in the last post almost persuaded me never to read OxBlog again. ;) (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 6:23 AM by Patrick Belton  

THOUGHT COMMERCIAL PUBLISHING COULDN'T GET ANY MORE DUMBED-DOWN? Joe Gandelman notes that Penguin is dispatching models into the street in the UK to encourage men to read. Okay, it's hard to summon up too much savage indignation about that one. On the other hand, if you feel OxBlog isn't sexy enough for you, please do feel free to imagine the three of us* wearing bikinis while wisecracking and otherwise punditting forth about politics.

_________
* pending David and Josh's approval. And, come to think of it, Rachel's, too. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 4:45 AM by Patrick Belton  

ELECTORAL COLLEGE TRACKING MAP: Arthur Tripias has an electoral college map of the United States indicating which candidate is currently ahead in each state, according to the latest polls. He will be updating the map frequently between now and the election. If the election were held today? Bush by 307 electoral votes to 231.

So how does that stack up against last time? In 2000, Bush received 271 votes to Gore's 266 - which made that the closest collegiate result since 1876. By way of comparison, in 1976, Carter secured 297 votes against Ford's 240 (a Washington State 'faithless' elector voted for Reagan in the end); Kennedy bested Nixon in 1960 by a fairly expansive college margin of 303 against 219 (Harry Byrd received 15 votes). In historical elections, the closest results were Jefferson-Burr's 73-73 tie in 1800 prior to the ratification of the 12th Amendment (which sent the election of the President to the House, where 10 state delegations then voted for Jefferson, 4 for Burr, and 2 abstained), and 1876's Hayes-Tilden 185-184 score, where Congress referred a dispute over the votes of four states to the Electoral Commission, which then awarded their votes to Hayes. Even George Washington's practically-speaking uncontested election of 1789 wasn't particularly close as an electoral college result, with his vice president John Adams securing 34 votes against his 69 in a preordained result. In particularly bad electoral college showings, Roosevelt-Landon in 1936 produced a 523-8 landslide (whereas even in wartime, Dewey would hold FDR to at least 432-99 in 1944); Nixon received 520 against McGovern's 17 in 1972; and Reagan bested Mondale by 525-13 in 1984. Lincoln's 212-21 trouncing of McClellan in 1864 no doubt deserves mention, too.

Incidentally, Benjamin Harrison's victory over Grover Cleveland in 1888 wasn't that close in the electoral vollege, even though popularity queen Cleveland turned a capital-L loser when she got to college (Ed: wait, I think you're looking for www.nytimes.com/dowd - this is OxBlog. MD: oh, thanks!), and Cleveland bested Harrison by a mere 100,456 votes in the national popular count (5,540,309 votes to Harrison's 5,439,853). The electoral college produced a healthy spread that year of 233-168. (And if you're curious, as a percentage of votes cast, Cleveland's lead of 0.915% compares quite healthily with 2000's margin of 0.536% for Gore)

And finally, if you're going to be an elector and want to maximise your influence, then head to one of these states, which haven't passed laws against faithless electors: among them, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Texas, and Illinois. (It's questionable whether penalties in other states are legally enforceable, too, and no state has ever sought to apply such a penalty.) Here's a list of faithless electors in history - the first was Pennsylvania's Samuel Miles in 1796 (pledged to John Adams, cast vote for Thomas Jefferson); New Hampshire's William Plummer in 1820 changed his ballot to ensure (mistakenly, but laudably) that no President other than George Washington would be elected with the unanimous vote of the Electoral College; in 2000, the District of Columbia's Barbara Lett-Simmons abstained from voting for Gore to protest the district's lack of congressional representation. The coveted title of stupidest faithless elector probably goes to nurse Margaret Leach of West Virginia, who in 1988 was shocked to learn that she could vote for whichever candidate she chose, so she switched the names of Dukakis and Bentsen; when she tried to convince other electors to follow suit, no one joined her. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 4:11 AM by Patrick Belton  

OXBLOG REVERSES ITS ADVICE: Save your eyesight, watch BBC! You can watch the transit of Venus safely on the BBC's SunCam. In 1761 and 1769, the transit of Venus proved crucial in calculating the astronomical unit - the mean distance between Earth and the sun - as roughly 150 million kilometres. This methodology was urged on astronomers by the Astronomer Royal, Edmund Halley, before his death (the distance had already been approximated at 140 million kilometres by Jean Richer and Giovanni Cassini in 1672, using the parallax of Mars.)

The Economist has an amusing tale of the transit quests of 1761, which motivated Cook's first voyage of discovery and an expedition to Sumatra by the later-famous British explorers Mason and Dixon - and, on the French side of a cross-channel scientific rivalry which predated the twentieth century's space race by two hundred years, the pathetic tale of the excessively-surnamed Guillaume Joseph Hyacinthe Jean-Baptiste Le Gentil de la Galaisiere. Later, in 1874, that year's transit impelled the first (and badly functioning) motion camera. (There's also a great deal more history here.) (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 8:47 PM by David Adesnik  

REAGAN'S LEGACY: PROMOTING DEMOCRACY IN IRAQ. In the midst of debating whether or not Reagan won the Cold War, both liberals and conservatives have embraced the implicit but flawed premise that Reagan's impact on American foreign policy did not endure beyond the fall of the Soviet Union. Yet the fact of the matter is that every time President Bush describes freedom as a universal aspiration, capable of flourishing even in the political wastelands of the Middle East, it is Ronald Reagan's voice that America hears.

In his historic address to the British Parliament in 1982, Reagan foresaw the downfall of the Soviet empire. Much less noticed was Reagan’s declaration that democracy promotion must serve as the moral and strategic foundation of American foreign policy. Contemporary journalists described Reagan’s address as an anti-Communist broadside, almost wholly ignoring the President’s positive agenda of promoting human freedom. Scholars of the Reagan era have mostly done the same.

While Reagan found it hard to withdraw American support from right-wing dictators with whom the President had established close personal ties, his administration ultimately oversaw the democratization of the Philippines, South Korea and Chile. While Reagan often found it hard to acknowledge the human rights violations committed by democratic forces, his “crusade for freedom” ultimately brought both human rights and democracy to the suffering citizens of Nicaragua and El Salvador.

But most important of all, Reagan persuaded a generation of Republicans that the GOP’s response to the Democratic embrace of human rights should not be a return to the amoral realpolitik of the Kissinger era, but rather a proud commitment to sharing America’s democratic ideals with all those who still live in the midst of dictatorship. As things now stand, George Bush’s vision of a democratic Middle East seems like little more than a pipe dream. Yet as Reagan’s legacy shows, it would not be wise to “misunderestimate” the President.
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# Posted 6:26 PM by David Adesnik  

OBITUARY WARS: An in-depth critique of the NYT and WaPo obituaries for President Reagan could fill a book, so I'll limit myself to a few observations. First and foremost, the WaPo obituary reflected the worst sort of mindless adoration that tends to emerge in the aftermath of an important man's death. While I am all for praising the dead at funerals, journalists have an obligation to tell the whole truth and nothing but the truth even while the body is still warm.

What I found most disturbing about Lou Cannon's obituary in the WaPo was that its tone and substance were completely at odds with Cannon's own magnificent biography of the President. Cannon's biography demonstrates how desperately out of touch Reagan was with the reality around him and how little he cared to learn more about it. Whether death squads in El Salvador or bureaucratic warfare in his own Cabinet, Reagan allowed himself to remain blissfully unaware. What makes the biography so damning is that it was written by Cannon, who even in the 1980s was known as the mainstream journalist most sympathetic to Reagan.

Actually, the real problem here is that the Post decided to let Cannon write Reagan's obituary. While one can forgive Cannon for publishing an uncritical eulogy of a man with whom he had a close personal relationship, the Post should have known better than to let the President's friends write his obituary. Of course, this is not how conservatives are looking at it. Already, the Weekly Standard is praising the WaPo while blasting the NYT for its spare and mocking coverage.

While I agree that the Times' could've done far more than publish a single, long obituary, the fact remains that its account of Reagan's presidency is far more balanced than the one written by Cannon. The main problem with the Times obituary is that its smirking arrogance detracts from the credibility of an otherwise fair account. As Hawken points out, the Times' obit comes dangerously close to suggesting that Reagan's success reflected little more than his good looks. In short, the Times obit reflects the same elitist condescension that marred the paper's coverage of Reagan during his two terms in the White House. The message then was the same as the message now: conservative presidents can only succeed because of the gross ignorance of the American voter.

Perhaps as penance for the failures of their respective obituaries, both the NYT and WaPo have published masthead editorials that contradict the obituaries' basic message. The WaPo editorial is a thoughtful evaluation of how Reagan's uncomprising ideological convictions were responsible for both his triumphs and his failures. The NYT editorial balances the expected liberal criticisms of economic and foreign policies with a good bit of ahistorical fluff. Unbelievably, the NYT writes that

Many people who disagreed with his ideology still liked him for his personality, and that was a source of frustration for his political opponents who knew how much the ideology mattered. Looking back now, we can trace some of the flaws of the current Washington mindset — the tax-cut-driven deficits, the slogan-driven foreign policy — to Mr. Reagan's example. But after more than a decade of political mean-spiritedness, we have to admit that collegiality and good manners are beginning to look pretty attractive.

As a doctoral candidate whose research involves reading old NYT articles from the 1980s, I can assure you that the Times was far more likely to criticize Reagand for his dishonesty and diviseness than praise him for his collegiality and good manners. Even if the President was always a gentleman in person, he didn't shy away from playing a very nasty sort of hardball politics when he thought that America's best interests were on the line.

The Times' revisionist history is disturbing because it dovetails with the revisionism that conservatives have embraced for quite some time now. For example, the Weekly Standard has just reposted a Fred Barnes column from 2001 that begins:

RONALD REAGAN had an unusual way of dealing with reporters and columnists: He transcended them. He didn't complain about what they wrote or said on TV. At least I never heard that he had. He didn't flatter them, as some politicians do, by pretending to admire their work, in hope they'd produce puff pieces about him. So far as I know, he didn't have friends in the Washington press corps and didn't want any.

As a matter of fact, Reagan complained very vocally and publicly about liberal bias in the media. For example, in the very speech that I described yesterday as Reagan's greatest, the President insisted that

For months and months the world news media covered the fighting in El Salvador. Day after day we were treated to stories and film slanted toward the brave freedom-fighters battling oppressive government forces in behalf of the silent, suffering people of that tortured country.

And then one day those silent, suffering people were offered a chance to vote, to choose the kind of government they wanted. Suddenly the freedom-fighters in the hills were exposed for what they really are -- Cuban-backed guerrillas who want power for themselves, and their backers, not democracy for the people.

In short, Reagan believed that the liberal media were useful idiots that did Moscow the favor of working without compensation. Collegiality and good manners? Not by a long shot.

(0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 6:18 PM by David Adesnik  

SILVER LINING BECOMES VISIBLE: Even the pessimistic Swopa thinks that things are getting a lot better in Najaf. But that doesn't mean that we're out of the woods just yet. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 2:57 PM by Patrick Belton  

NEW INDIAN BLOG: Regular OxBlog readers will remember that we're occasionally fortunate enough to have contributions on the subject of India from our good friend Antara Datta, who's not only brilliant but is a complete sweetheart, too. Well, fortunately for the blogosphere, she's gone and started her own blog where she'll be commenting on politics in India, which is at http://indiapolitics.blogspot.com. A warm welcome to the blogosphere, Antara - and for the rest of you, her blog comes very warmly recommended! (1) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 2:05 PM by Patrick Belton  

NOTED: A while back, I offered a review of google's new email service, Gmail, which we were privileged to be able to take for a test drive. (Some people get to test drive cars. Oh well, you take what you can get. Our review is in three parts, here, here, and here.) Like our good friend Jacob, I plan on using my account principally to store backup copies of my dissertation. (And for our truly bored readers, you can read an early draft of my chapter on Congress and China policy here....)

As we noted before, Gmail doesn't seem to deal particularly well now with spam - which might just be because as a newer service, its filters have less experience with what constitutes spam. More interestingly, though, there seems to be a rather unique form of spam going about now which only affects Gmail accounts - which consists of spammers asking people with gmail accounts to help them get gmail accounts, presumably to spam from. This makes some sense, as test-drive members each have two accounts which they can give to friends - in our case, we passed them along to readers. It's also rather funny, in a sick sort of way. (Kind of like rain on your wedding day - oh, wait....)

UPDATE: Our friend Scott Evenson writes in to recommend Aventuremail as well, which apparently provides 2 gigabytes of storage capacity (that's 121 copies of my dissertation, after I put in the pretty graphs). (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 6:48 AM by Patrick Belton  

MORAN WATCH, III: Fortunately, Andy Rosenberg is running in Virginia's 8th congressional district Democratic primary to challenge Northern Virginian Congressman Jim Moran, whose nationwide reputation rests mostly on his paranoid and ridiculous (and, now, ironically self-fulfilling) comments that Jews are out to unseat him. He has my strong endorsement. Unfortunately, he's unlikely to win, and precisely because Jews (and in this case at least, quite unfortunately) don't control American congressional politics to the extent Moran apparently believes them to.

Here's what we had to say late April about this:

Posted 10:52 AM by Patrick Belton
MORON WATCH: Anti-Semitic Virginia Democrat Jim Moran tumbles farther toward his political doom with ridiculous comments last night that Jewish organizations were planning to direct and take over the campaign of his next electoral challenger. [According to the Washington Post, his speech included the comments that American Israel Public Action Committee (AIPAC) has begun organizing against him and will 'direct a campaign against me and take over the campaign of a Democratic opponent'.] (The meeting unfortunately ended before he could begin distributing copies of the Protocols of the Elders of Zion.)

Mercifully, Moran's rant was swiftly condemned by now-House Democratic leader Pelosi, who denounced them as 'offensive and [with] no place in the Democratic Party'. (Even if our politics might be slightly different, count me in as a closeted admirer of that woman, ever since her insurgency campaign against the first Bush administration's conciliatory post-Tian'anmen China policy represented one of the more tactically brilliant campaigns in congressional politics in that decade).

Never one to let a good line go, Moron - seeking perhaps to rev up his staff for the campaign's final push - apparently recently conducted an anti-semitic rant in the presence of his staff in March, leading to the resignation of pollster Alan Secrest from his campaign staff. However, lest our readers in the 8th congressional district think that Moron's political record consists solely of anti-semitic diatribes, we do want to be fair. It also consists of brawling in the hall of Congress with other members (in a 1995 dispute, Moran shoved Rep. Randy Cunningham (R-Calif.) off the House floor). Also, it includes a number of ethics scandals, too. (In 1998, for instance, Moran received a $450,000 home refinancing loan from MBNA Corp., in spite of being behind in credit card payments to MBNA to the tune of $30,000. Shortly after closing the loan, Caesar's Virginian wife signed on as a sponsor of bankruptcy overhaul legislation that stood to benefit the company.) Rep. Moran's first career ended on an unauspicious (but nonetheless somewhat prophetic) note when he was forced out of the Alexandria City Council on bribery charges. The Economist has more on his dubious record; there is also a quotes page.

'If I was to lose my passion, I'd get out of politics', Moran has been quoted as saying. Both sound like fairly good ideas. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 6:40 AM by Patrick Belton  

HOW NPR STOPPED PLAYING CLASSICAL MUSIC: Andrew Ferguson covers how it all happened:

Classical music listeners, the researchers [from Walrus Research, in 2002] discovered, "use classical music to escape from the problems of the world." Not surprisingly, there are similarities in race (white) and income levels (very high) between the average NPR listener and the lover of classical music, yet in fact they represent two very different kinds of people. One group the researchers dubbed "Classical Monks," the other, more typical of the new NPR listeners, were "NPR Activists."

Classical Monks use the music format to attain an internal state, soothing and calm, intensely personal. NPR Activists use information from NPR News to guide their relations with other people in their community and around the globe. . . . NPR Activists love analysis and debate. More talk is better, if that talk informs their understanding of global issues. . . . Classical listeners enter a dream world with images of paradise. The NPR newsmagazines keep reminding us of the real world, with its social conditions, environmental changes, and economic forces. . . .Classical Monks seek an emotion derived from the aesthetic. NPR Activists think that reason and logic, on the basis of solid information, can lead to the perfection of mankind.

The classical listener values lone serenity. NPR fans are the most politically active segment of the population.

For those who have trouble with complete sentences, Walrus Research helpfully broke the findings down into a neat PowerPoint chart (see above). "The portal to NPR news is through the intellect," said the study. "The portal to classical music is emotional."

In sum, Walrus said: "Classical listeners use the station for gratification of their private, internal needs." Sounds kind of yucky, doesn't it? And certainly not very public. Catering to such people might even be considered an abdication of responsibility for a program director bent on public service.

Incidentally, as Ferguson notes, there is an interesting academic paper, 'Guys in Suits with Charts,' by Alan Stavistky, about the 'transformation of public radio from its educational, service-based origins to an audience-driven orientation' - i.e., among other things, how it stopped playing Brahms and Mahler and began, like most arts in their decadant stage, dabbling in politics. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 6:30 AM by Patrick Belton  

THANKS ANYWAY, I THINK I'LL OPT FOR TELLY AND A HOT WATER BOTTLE: According to the latest Department of Health statistics, one out of every twenty oral drug doses given in English hospitals is incorrect.

UPDATE: Joshua Macy points out that our RSS feed apparently shortened the title of this post to the slightly less accurate, but more amusing, 'THANKS ANYWAY, I THINK I'LL OPT FOR TELLY AND A HO'. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 5:42 AM by Patrick Belton  

MORE FROM OXBLOG'S AFGHANISTAN CORRESPONDENT:

[When last we left our intrepid Afghan adventurer, he was struggling valiantly against evil customs officials, who would not permit him to bring accompanists beyond the waiting area, or even to have gases and passions inside his handbag...]

Wednesday: Observations and Negotiations

We got an early start out of Kunduz. The plan had been to drive south all morning, stopping off at various orchards and demonstration fields along the way. In the afternoon, we planned to head northwest as far as Samangan town, check out some almond groves in that area, and then either crash there or head back to the minor city of Pul-e-Khumre for the night. But our Deputy Head hadn't enjoyed our sparing accommodations in Kunduz, and decided that we would drive all the way to Mazar-e-Sharif that evening (two or three extra hours) in order to be guaranteed air-conditioned rooms and comfortable beds.

We didn't immediately inform our team of shooters of the change in plans when they rejoined us -- I guess we figured that if the shooters decided Mazar was out of the question, we would at least have their protection for the morning. Unfortunately, because our bodyguards didn't realize that the distance we'd be traveling had significantly increased, they decided to set a nice, relaxed pace for our convoy of SUVs. After twenty minutes, the Deputy Head pulled up next to us, rolled down the window, and yelled, "We'll never make Mazar at this rate! You guys take the lead!" Glad to oblige, our driver Ainodeen floored it past our surprised-looking security escort. As before, the shooters kept to their comfortable 60 kmph and soon fell out of sight behind us.

We drove for the next several hours through the fertile provinces of Kunduz and Baghlan, following the main river valleys through a succession of bustling market towns. The steep row of hills separating the provinces was speckled with hundreds of wild pistachio trees. Mohibi explained that the hilltop trees were common property, and right now dozens of Afghan soldiers were up there protecting the unripe pistachios. In a few weeks, when the nuts ripened, the hills would be opened to all comers, to pick as many as they could carry away. One California consultant shook his head and commented on this highly unprofitable use of agricultural resources. Mohibi didn't hear him; he was explaining with enthusiasm that once, long ago, he had served in the Afghan army as a pistachio guard himself. Back then, before the Soviet invasion, that sort of thing was one of the army's primary functions.

The war has left its marks everywhere, of course. Near Kunduz, a joker with a can of white spray paint had written "No Parking: Tow Zone" in English on a derelict tank that had been halfway hauled off the road. Over the following two days, we passed more old Soviet military hardware than I could list, rusting away on the roadside or flipped over halfway down a ravine. Frankly, after driving from Mazar to Kabul, I find it astonishing that the Russian Army has any tanks left. The typical speed bump in Kunduz, Baghlan, and Samangan is a tank tread, unrolled across the highway and reinforced with asphalt. (It can chew the heck out of your tires if you're not careful). Graves are the other strikingly common roadside sight -- typically a pole sprouting from a heap of stones, strung with green or black flags and streamers. Below the flags, there are usually wordless slate slabs at the head and foot of the mound. A few graves have white marble headstones with elaborate inscriptions.

Late in the morning, we pulled into the town of Baghlan, to check out a sugar factory that has been out of commission for over a decade but painstakingly maintained by the local government. The old Czechoslovak sugar beet processing machinery was dusty but not corroded; there were only a couple bullet holes here and there; and the caretaker was re-cutting glass for the broken window panes when we made our surprise visit. A fleet of Soviet cargo trucks were rusting away in the yard… plus, of course, a couple tanks.

We could get the place working again -- whether it would ever be profitable is another question. Part of the problem with Afghanistan is that it's surrounded by countries producing most of its potential exports at lower cost. Cotton? Hard to beat Uzbekistan (even if US cotton producers would allow USAID to assist the Afghan cotton sector). Textiles? Pakistan has too much riding on that market -- they'd slap on an enormous tariff or threaten to close off the border, if by some miracle Afghan textiles neared competitive advantage. Fresh fruit and produce? Not unless we can get quality up to the level of the Arab countries and Iran. Raisins and almonds? Maybe. Afghanistan used to supply more than half of the European dried fruit market. But quality standards have gone up in the EU while crashing in Afghanistan. Opium? Now we're talking -- Afghan intensive cropping practices have allowed them to get almost four times the yield per hectare of their closest competitor on the poppy market, Myanmar. And the Afghans are sticking with what they do well.

But I digress. The shooters showed up while we were breakfasting on fatty kebab, naan, and yogurt. At this point, we explained that our group was heading to Mazar for the evening; that we understood the security company hadn't planned for this extension of the trip; and that we were willing to pay for extra petrol if they needed it. The shooters pushed back their sunglasses to stare at us incredulously, conferred together for a moment, then said that the extra petrol would cost $50. This seemed just a tad steep, but they were the ones with the automatic weapons, so we accepted our weak bargaining position and shelled out.

They looked at the money, conferred again, and then asked, "But what will we put in our stomachs?" Mohibi grumbled (in English) that they could put the extra bloody petrol in their stomachs, since their boss had certainly given them enough money for food and lodging. We tried to convince them to just head back to Kabul and take the $50 as a don't-shoot-us-please fee, but they didn't like the thought of facing their boss if they returned a day early. In the end, the Deputy Head paid them another $50 for food, lodging, and "damn well keeping up with us wherever we decide to drive for the next two days." Curiously, the shooters no longer seemed to have any trouble matching our speed.

As we drove that day, I was struck by the near-total absence of female faces in public. In Kabul, as I mentioned last fall, roughly half the women I see on the street are in burqas, and the other half wear headscarves. In Kunduz and the countryside around it, the burqa is all but universal. Over two days of watching, only in Mazar city and in the town of Hairatan right on the Uzbek border did I see the face of a woman over fourteen or so. (We did see plenty of younger girls -- the good people of Kunduz, Baghlan, and Balkh seem to be sending their daughters to school in droves, which is encouraging. Everywhere we drove, we passed swarms of schoolgirls in black uniforms and gauzy white headscarves).

I asked Ainodeen to what extent this near-universal veiling was a legacy of the Taliban. He said that rural Afghans had always kept to a strict modesty code, and that ten, twenty, or thirty years ago if we'd been driving the same road we would have seen the same proportion of veiled women. The Taliban imposed all kinds of stifling, unpopular rules that were purely derived from their interpretation of the Qur'an: no music, no kite-flying, no sports. Those little textual tyrannies are why so few Afghans remember the Taliban with any fondness today. But in some cases (the burqa, restrictions on the travel of women) they also formalized long-standing rural norms, which continue to be socially enforced among the majority of Afghans who live outside Westernizing urban areas. The persistence of the burqa isn't an indicator of support for Taliban ideology; by the same token, no one should expect that the ouster of the Taliban has brought rural Afghanistan any closer to accepting Western gender values.

I don't mean to suggest that these deep-rooted restrictions on women's dress and movement persist on "cultural" steam alone, or that they exist unopposed in rural areas. Especially in villages close to the capital, many women state that they would gladly swap the burqa for the less confining headscarf if only they lived in Kabul. (Hopefully, a lot of those schoolgirls I saw on the road in the north will grow up feeling similarly). It takes a great deal of pressure to keep these women under wraps -- and the pressure isn't just exerted by family, neighbors, and the local mullah, but by governors and local militias.

Take as an example idyllic Paghman, a verdant, mountainous district where the Kabulis like to take their picnics. It's currently dominated by the militia of Abdul Rabb al-Rasul Sayyaf, a butcher and torturer who wrecked a good fraction of Kabul during the mujahidin era (and is now allied to the most powerful bloc in the U.S.-supported government). Sayyaf's gunmen on the one hand enforce a strict "Islamic" dress code, and on the other hand perpetrate much of the banditry, kidnapping, and rape that is held to necessitate that code. The burqa and other restrictions have traditionally been justified on the grounds that they protect women; like many protection rackets, the "protection" and the threat increasingly stem from the same sources.

But at least it's now possible to discuss gender issues a little more openly, and most departments of the central government are supportive. By contrast... well, my co-worker Mumtaz has a great story from his days in the late 90s as a translator with the UN. He accompanied a UN delegation to the new Taliban government to negotiate the conditions for UNICEF, UNHCR, and other groups to continue work in Afghanistan.

The Taliban Minister of Planning began their first meeting by leaning over the table and pointing straight at Mumtaz. "We are willing to talk about these aid programs. But tell them that if they so much as mention gender, I will f--- their mothers," he said with ferocious emphasis. "Translate!"

Mumtaz nodded gravely, turned to the UN staff, and said, "He says you are under no circumstances to mention gender. He will not hear of it." The UN staff nodded gravely, and Mumtaz turned back to their host. "Did you tell them?" insisted the Minister. "Did you tell them that I would f--- their mothers?"

"Of course," said Mumtaz, unflappable. "They do not look shocked," said the Taleb dubiously. Mumtaz shrugged, raised his palms in a helpless gesture. "They are Westerners. They do not mind such things."

[next time: guns 'n' poppies] (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:51 PM by David Adesnik  

REAGAN REMEMBERED: Rather than eulogize the President, I find it best to let his own words speak for him. On June 8, 1982, Reagan spoke to the British Parliament at Westminster. He declared that

In an ironic sense Karl Marx was right. We are witnessing today a great revolutionary crisis, a crisis where the demands of the economic order are conflicting directly with those of the political order. But the crisis is happening not in the free, non-Marxist West, but in the home of Marxist-Leninism, the Soviet Union. It is the Soviet Union that runs against the tide of history by denying human freedom and human dignity to its citizens...

Now, I don't wish to sound overly optimistic, yet the Soviet Union is not immune from the reality of what is going on in the world. It has happened in the past -- a small ruling elite either mistakenly attempts to ease domestic unrest through greater repression and foreign adventure, or it chooses a wiser course. It begins to allow its people a voice in their own destiny. Even if this latter process is not realized soon, I believe the renewed strength of the democratic movement, complemented by a global campaign for freedom, will strengthen the prospects for arms control and a world at peace...

What I am describing now is a plan and a hope for the long term -- the march of freedom and democracy which will leave Marxism-Leninism on the ash-heap of history as it has left other tyrannies which stifle the freedom and muzzle the self-expression of the people.

Who else dared to believe in 1982 that the Soviet Union was on its death bed? No matter how many times I read Reagan's address, I find his prescience to be almost incredible. Yet as Reagan himself said, all the evidence was there in plain sight. Who in their right mind could ever have believed that the Soviet system was as viable as its Western counterpart?

Reagan 1982 speech was also remarkable because of its prescient declaration that promoting democracy abroad must serve as the foundation of American foreign policy:

Around the world today, the democratic revolution is gathering new strength...

We must be staunch in our conviction that freedom is not the sole prerogative of a lucky few, but the inalienable and universal right of all human beings. So states the United Nations Universal Declaration of Human Rights, which, among other things, guarantees free elections.

The objective I propose is quite simple to state: to foster the infrastructure of democracy, the system of a free press, unions, political parties, universities, which allows a people to choose their own way to develop their own culture, to reconcile their own differences through peaceful means.

This is not cultural imperialism, it is providing the means for genuine self-determination and protection for diversity. Democracy already flourishes in countries with very different cultures and historical experiences. It would be cultural condescension, or worse, to say that any people prefer dictatorship to democracy. Who would voluntarily choose not to have the right to vote, decide to purchase government propaganda handouts instead of independent newspapers, prefer government to worker-controlled unions, opt for land to be owned by the state instead of those who till it, want government repression of religious liberty, a single political party instead of a free choice, a rigid cultural orthodoxy instead of democratic tolerance and diversity?...

The task I've set forth will long outlive our own generation. But together, we too have come through the worst. Let us now begin a major effort to secure the best -- a crusade for freedom that will engage the faith and fortitude of the next generation. For the sake of peace and justice, let us move toward a world in which all people are at last free to determine their own destiny.

When President Bush describes the democratic future that belongs to the people of Iraq, every word is vintage Reagan. Yet just as Bush preaches the gospel of democracy while failing to invest the effort and resources necessary to make it grow, so did Reagan fail to understand what sort of practical steps might have to be taken to implement his compelling vision.

For now, I will hold off on further criticism. For one moment, it is worth meditating on nothing more than the profound insights of a man who was a great patriot but never had pretensions of being a great philosopher.
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# Posted 8:29 AM by Patrick Belton  

GOING DUTCH: In OxBlog's 'ethnic and national calumnies against groups we really have nothing in particular against' category, a recent poll shows that one third of Dutch men believe watching their national football team play in the Euro2004 championship in Portugal is more important than celebrating their wife's birthday...if it came to that. (It was not polled, however, how many Dutch women wanted to celebrate their birthdays by watching footie...which seems a relevant question, too....) (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 5:34 PM by Patrick Belton  

TIAN'ANMEN SQUARE, 3-4 JUNE, 1989: We shall never forget.

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# Posted 10:25 PM by David Adesnik  

OUR IMPERILED DEMOCRACY: Picking up where Josh left off, I thought I'd compose a list of which of our Presidents "didn't live in a time when [their] bad decisions could imperil our democracy." That way, if anyone wants to complain about Bush in historical context they can do so properly. So here goes:

Definitely lived in a time in which their bad decisions could imperil our democracy:

Washington, Adams, Jefferson, Madison, Jackson, Buchanan, Lincoln, A. Johnson, Grant, Wilson, Hoover, F.D. Roosevelt, Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy, L.B. Johnson, Nixon, Reagan, G.W. Bush.

Probably lived in a time in which their bad decisions could imperil our democracy:

Monroe, J.Q. Adams, Van Buren, Tyler, Polk, Taylor, Fillmore, Pierce, McKinley, T. Roosevelt, Taft, Carter, Clinton, G.H.W. Bush.

Sort of lived in a time in which their bad decisions could imperial our democracy:

Hayes, Arthur, Cleveland (I), Harrison, Cleveland (II), Harding, Coolidge.

Did NOT live in a time in which their bad decisions could imperil our democracy:

W.H. Harrison, Garfield.

Now, I'm sure you will find some of these decisions controversial. But I can say with confidence that American democracy was safe in March and April of 1841 as well as from March through September of 1881. So here's my idea for a Kerry slogan: "Bush: Only safe for 10 months every 228 years." Who wouldn't respond to that? (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 10:10 PM by David Adesnik  

TIME FLIES: Just got into New Haven -- this weekend is my 5th reunion. I have broadband where I'm staying, but not much time on my hands. Besides, I am firmly committed to blogging while sober. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 3:06 PM by Patrick Belton  

WELL THEY ALL LOOK ALIKE TO US WATCH, #28: In a series of recurring problems which grounded all air travel today in England and Wales, controllers systematically mistook Glasgow (habitually in Scotland) for Cardiff (generally to be found in Wales). We at OxBlog know that telling confusing Celtic capitals from each other can be awfully confusing, and are pained by the recent suggestion, to whomever it should be attributed (the initials PB and DA have both been suggested...), that the English are simply no good at telling foreigners apart.... (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 2:55 PM by Patrick Belton  

THERE WILL BE A NEW DCI: Tenet announces that he will be stepping down as director in July. Former DDI and NIC chair John E. McLaughlin will become interim director when Tenet's resignation takes effect. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:20 AM by David Adesnik  

DOUBLE-D VS. THE FEMINISTE: Prof. Drezner has an interesting encounter. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:33 PM by David Adesnik  

DOES SISTANI REALLY SUPPORT ALLAWI? That the question Swopa asks. A good question, too. For the record, my comment that Allawi "apparently" has Sistani's support reflected the WaPo's observation that "Although he is secular, [Allawi] reportedly has the support of the country's top Shiite cleric." But Swopa makes a good case that we've misunderstood Sistani before and that American correspondents in Iraq haven't learned their lesson.

UPDATE: Well, that answers that question. Sort of. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 6:52 PM by David Adesnik  

"CONSERVATIVES SHOULD HAVE SEEN THIS COMING": That's what Frank Foer wrote about Ahmad Chalabi ten months ago. But that was a long time ago, back when Pentagon officials were calling Chalabi the "George Washington of Iraq" and WSJ editorialists were describing him as a democratic visionary.

Anyhow, it now looks that Chalabi did exactly what everyone thinks he did -- tell Iranian intelligence that we broke their codes. Noam Scheiber says the news has already "flooded [his] stomach with more bile than [he] can handle for one day." I'm not sure exactly how much bile that is, but I have a feeling that a lot of people in Iraq are going to suffer from much more than an upset stomach because of Chalabi. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 6:23 PM by David Adesnik  

GOING ON THE DEFENSIVE? Spencer Ackerman continues to blog up a storm about Iraq. Today, Spencer takes a close look at the negotiations designed to produce a new Security Council resolution for Iraq.

Yesterday, Ackerman tore into American generals for suggesting that their new priorities will be to focus on the protection of Iraqi infrastructure and government officials. Spencer writes that

Leaving insurgents and militias--and every militia in Iraq is just tomorrow's pool of insurgents--unchallenged except for responding to discrete flare-ups will make it that much harder for the U.S. to protect the new government...By not conducting offensive operations, we're giving the extremists time and breathing space to regroup, resupply and redouble their efforts at murdering the new government and throwing the political process, such as it is, off track.

Unfortunately, I think Spencer is mischaracterizing the army plans. Lt. Gen. Thomas Metz, the officer in charge of day-to-day operations, has issued a

clear warning to "anybody who misinterprets our focus away from combat operations and onto other things like Iraqi security capacity and infrastructure protection."

"We will always maintain a quick-reaction force, with very lethal combat capability," he said. "If someone thinks there is a vacuum and wants to enter it with conventional forces, you better believe we are ready."

Now, it is fair to ask whether the emergence of new priorities had anything to do with our decision to accept a flawed settlement with Sadr's forces in Najaf while allowing former Ba'athists to run Fallujah. Metz's comments about Fallujah lean in that direction. Still, I think the army and the (ex-)CPA should be given more time to show that their approach works. On the other hand, OxBlog's correspondent in Fallujah warns that the situation there has become a fiasco and will be exposed by a major American publication in the coming weeks. I guess we'll see. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:05 AM by Patrick Belton  

SOMETHING NOT QUITE ADDING UP HERE: I don't really feel any particular need either to defend or to villify Ahmad Chalabi here, but there's one bit to the story as it now stands that I don't quite understand.

So as CNN and other news outlets are now reporting, Chalabi becomes aware that the United States has cracked the codes by which Iran encrypts its secret transmissions. Chalabi gives this information to the Iranian intelligence chief in Baghdad, who relays it to Tehran - but using one of the codes which he'd just become aware that the Americans had cracked. The Americans, reading this transmission (as they had cracked the Iranian codes - see previous sentence), then become aware that Chalabi had passed this information on to the Iranian intelligence station in Baghdad.

This doesn't quite seem to add up - which doesn't mean that Chalabi didn't betray us, is indeed our friend, or is even a nice guy - but why wouldn't the Iranians, who are apparently good at this game, relay the information to Tehran via a courier, instead of using a compromised channel? It seems they'd only act they way they did if: (1) their station chief in Baghdad was phenomenally stupid (which is, I suppose, always a possibility), or (2) if they had a grievance against Chalabi, and/or (3) believed that souring his relations with Washington was more in their nation's interests than, say, using the cracked code to send misleading information to the Americans. I suppose there's also one remaining possibility, (4) that they assumed in error that they had a safe code they could rely upon - but such a calculation is bound to be risky, once you know that the Americans have broken at least some of your codes - and why risk losing a valuable means for misdirecting one of your major adversaries, when you could test the safety of your different channels by (as they indeed did) transmitting test messages to see whether the Americans would act in such a way to indicate they'd read them?

Again, this isn't to say that Chalabi is a nice guy, or that I'd want to open a joint banking account with him in Jordan - but I'll still be curious to see if some of these incongruencies become settled as the story unfolds. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 2:05 AM by David Adesnik  

THE UNKINDEST CUT: The headline of the actual story in the WaPo (print & online editions) reads "Many Hurdles Ahead for US". But on the WaPo homepage, the story gets listed as "White House is Hopeful Tide has Turned in Iraq." (Technichal question: Do the WaPo and NYT file cached versions of their respective homepages? It's frustrating to link to headlines that disappear.) Anyhow, talk about being set up for a fall:

With the introduction of both a new Iraqi government and a new U.N. draft resolution, the Bush administration senses the beginning of the end to its controversial and costly intervention in Iraq...

President Bush was almost giddily buoyant during a Rose Garden news conference about Iraq's interim government...Not since the "Mission Accomplished" photograph aboard the USS Lincoln on May 1 last year, when Bush declared an end to major combat operations in Iraq, has the administration appeared as upbeat about the future.

The funny thing is, Bush didn't actually say anything terribly optimistic at yesterday's press conference. I'm guessing he did appear quite giddy, however, since his moods tend to be fairly transparent. (Either that, or he is a far better actor than Ronald Reagan ever was.) I guess you might say that Bush learned the lesson of the "Mission Accomplished" debacle: don't go on the record as an optimist if you aren't pretty damn sure that the breaks will go your way. After all, when the administration gets dealt its next blow in Iraq, what are the critics going to say? That the President's smile was too broad back on June 1st?

UPDATE: The WaPo has changed the headline on its homepage to "Many Hurdles Still Ahead for United States in Iraq". (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 8:45 PM by David Adesnik  

IS PERVEZ PERVERSE? President Musharraf of Pakistan has a column in today's WaPo that would be extremely persuasive if it weren't written by a corrupt dictator. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 8:34 PM by David Adesnik  

HAITI STILL A TOTAL MESS: Not that it's surprising. Still, I think there is no question that the Bush administration did the right thing by forcing Aristide out and sending in US troops. (For an argument to the contrary, see Randy Paul.) Those troops will soon return home, to be replaced by a larger contingent of Brazilians. Rebuilding Haiti is clearly a good cause and our allies in Europe and Latin America are willing to pick up where the US left off. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 6:08 PM by David Adesnik  

LEAVE HISTORY TO THE PROFESSIONALS, TOM: Invoking Germany and Japan as precedents for nation-building in Iraq doesn't really work. There are some very important lessons to be learned, but critics can (and will) immediately point out that the invasion of Iraq was no World War II and that America doesn't have thorough-going European support like it did in '45. Pretty much, starting in about Germany and Japan means starting up an unproductive discussion about Iraq.

However, since Tom Friedman mentioned Germany and Japan first, I think it's a good idea to respond. Friedman writes that

I have a "Tilt Theory of History." The Tilt Theory states that countries and cultures do not change by sudden transformations. They change when, by wise diplomacy and leadership, you take a country, a culture or a region that has been tilted in the wrong direction and tilt it in the right direction, so that the process of gradual internal transformation can take place over a generation...

We did not and cannot liberate Iraqis. They have to liberate themselves. That is what the Japanese and Germans did. All we can hope to do is help them tilt their country in a positive direction.

Bollocks, bollocks, bollocks. The shock of defeat and the sudden infusion of American ideals provoked a radical transformation of both German and Japanese society and culture. For the best English-language accounts of these transformations, see From Shadow to Substance by Dennis Bark & David Gress and Embracing Defeat: Japan in the Wake of World War II by John Dower.

Way back in October 2002, Dower predicted that Iraq would not become another Japan because the US did not have the will power to endure the occupation. OxBlog half-agreed with Dower. I said that will power was, in fact, the critical issue, but that it was too early to dismiss the Bush Administration's commitment to nation-building. As things have turned out, the issue isn't commitment but competence.

So, does incompetence mean that we should settle for a tilt rather than a transformation? In some respects, perhaps. But there is no reason to compromise on our insistence that Iraq must have an elected government that respects the rights of its citizens. That alone would amount to a transformation. And if such a government can survice, Iraqis will have plenty of opportunities to liberate their culture and society from the legacy of Saddam.

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# Posted 5:42 PM by David Adesnik  

"DIVERSE GOVERNMENT TAKES SHAPE IN IRAQ": That the banner headline on the NYT homepage right now. The article that goes along with it is almost as upbeat as the headline. After all, is there anything that the NYT approves of more than diversity?

Anyhow, I'm not impressed with the handover. Yes, I know -- OxBlog is always supposed to be more upbeat than the NYT. I just feel that this is one of those formal occasions that gets big headlines because it's a formal occasion and not because it really matters. The fact remains that this is a caretaker government with partial sovereignty.

Strangely, even the Times' account of Bush's remarks about the transition doesn't even challenge any of the President's vague assertions or remind readers of the weaknesses in his speech from last week. In fact, the article doesn't even bother quoting a Kerry campaign spokesman or other Democratic figure. It is as if someone snuck a whole lot of ecstasy tablets into the water filtration system on West 43rd St.

UPDATE: The WaPo coverage is pretty soft, too. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 5:38 AM by Patrick Belton  

ADVERT OF THE DAY AWARD: goes to the campaign in the Dublin International Airport, lining the corridor between arrivals and passport control, which features roughly thirty posters of the fetching Hungarian Miss Europe, Zsuzsanna Laky, over a caption reading (roughly), 'If you want her, you need to take all of us. Budapest: A European Capital, 2004'. Talk about putting your best face forward.... (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 1:38 AM by David Adesnik  

BELATED MEMORIAL DAY THOUGHTS:

We don't really celebrate many of our holidays as intended here in the USA, but in the middle of a time of war it really does seem worth thinking a bit about the extraordinary courage and dedication shown by the members of the armed forces, especially today's all-volunteer force. It's remarkable as you drive through the outside-the-beltway part of Virginia and northern North Carolina just how frequently you see signs in local businesses admonishing passers-by and customers to support the troops. And, indeed, they deserve our support.

That's from Matt. He adds: "It seems to me that this is probably best done by providing them with some leadership that knows how to do its job properly." I half agree, but I think that for this one day, we should just focus on the troops and their personal sacrifices. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 1:36 AM by David Adesnik  

MATT YGLESIAS = ERIC CARTMAN? Why does Matt have an insatiable need to poke things with sticks? (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:56 PM by David Adesnik  

ARE THE JOURNALISTS LISTENING? When bloggers ask whether blogs matter, what they really mean is whether professional journalists respond to our questions and demands. We don't expect politicians to listen to us. We don't expect corporate executives to listen to us. But we see ourselves as journalists' next-of-kin and therefore deserve their attention.

While bloggers may argue about whether journalists listen, Rachel Smolkin actually went out there and asked a whole lot of actual journalists whether they make time for blogs. Most of the answers are pretty non-committal. The most interesting comes from NYT correspondent Jodi Wilgoren, who showed some interest in Wilgoren Watch. However, her critics

"typically did not reflect much knowledge about or understanding of mainstream journalism," Wilgoren says, and often came from passionate Dean supporters. "I got many, many letters accusing me of being a tool of the Republican administration or trying to destroy Howard Dean."

I think Wilgoren is throwing the baby out with the bath water. Certainly, some of her critics are mindless leftists. But even OxBlog thought that her coverage of Dean was harsh and unfair.

Now, the irony here is that Wilgoren is quite liberal herself, as one can tell from her efforts to whitewash the crimes of David Gilbert and Kathy Boudin. While Wilgoren deserves credit for at least looking at blogs, I think that her reaction may become typical for mainstream journalists, i.e. find a few online critics you can label as ignorant and use their prejudice to justify ignoring the blogosphere as a whole. According to NYT ombudsman Daniel Okrent,

"In some instances, some [blogs] are so partisan -- even though they're right in many instances -- they're immediately discredited within the newsroom because of their partisanship," [Okrent said]. "If the comment comes from someone who isn't identified as a partisan, they take it much more seriously."

This Okrent quote comes from an excellent column by Marc Glaser which addresses many of the same issues that Smolkin's essay does. Whereas Smolkin looks at the issue more broadly, Glaser focuses on a specific incident in which National Debate editor Robert Cox forced NYT editorial page editor Gail Collins to make an official policy change that imposed tougher standards on her columnists.

Now, it's hard to say whether Cox got a response from the Times because he was a blogger or because he was right. After all, non-blogging readers sometimes get responses as well if they're right. However, the fact that Cox got the Times' attention by posting a parody of their website -- thus provoking the threat of the lawsuit -- suggests that his medium played an important.

The Cox case provides an interesting contrast with the Trent Lott affair, which Rachel Smolkin covers quite nicely. As I see it, the difference between the two is that Cox was directly challenging the competence and authority of professional jouralists, while Josh Marshall and others helped bring down Trent Lott by converting journalists to the anti-Lott cause.

I think both sorts of influence are quite significant, although the Cox variety is somewhat more interesting because it demonstrates that when bloggers go head to head with the pros, they can still come out on top.

Now, last but not least, we come to Dan Drezner and Henry Farrell's effort to conduct a systematic survey of which blogs journalists actually read. I think that their approach is important since Smolkin's essay is rather anecdotal and Glaser's focuses only bloggers' success.

The results of Dan and Henry's survey aren't exactly a surprise. Journalists read the same blogs that bloggers read: Sullivan, Reynolds, Marshall, etc. But that is still a very significant finding because it demonstrates that journalists have developed a surprisingly similar sense of who is worth reading in the blogosphere. (Sadly, OxBlog didn't make the Top 10. Oh well.)

If there is one thing I'd add to all of these worthwhile contributions, it's that we still need to develop a better idea, in our own minds at least, of what role(s) blogs are supposed to play. Smolkin tends to suggest that blogs set themselves up as an alternative to mainstream, reportorial journalism. But I like Jay Rosen's take better:

Almost all of the op-ed writing in America used to be on op-ed pages. That is no longer true. Weblogs have taken over part of that territory. And while the best of them may have 'opinion clout,' the simple fact that they have some territory alongside Big Media is significant.

Bloggers are never going to replace correspondents. But we may be able to knock off Maureen Dowd. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:14 PM by David Adesnik  

CALL IT A HUNCH: The WaPo has an interesting analysis of the time stamps on the Abu Ghraib prison photo. One fact that really struck me was that soldiers in the 372nd began to abuse prisoners within two days of arriving at Abu Ghraib.

That being the case, it's very hard to imagine how the abuse could have taken place without some sort of green light from either military intelligence or superior officers. Yes, it is possible that these few soldiers were so sadistic that they leapt at the opportunity to commit human rights violations. But the alternative is too compelling to be ruled out. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 1:48 PM by Patrick Belton  

DISPATCHES FROM KABUL: OxBlog's Afghanistan correspondent is back afield, and sends in part one in a series of despatches to us:

Part I: Arrival

As a kindness to the daily herd of travelers waiting to see if their flights show up, the departure lounge of Kabul airport has been decorated with inadvertently funny signs. "No accompanists allowed beyond waiting area" -- once you pass through security, you're singing a capella. And there's the official list of items which are forbidden in one's handbag:

1. The handbag.
2. Explosives and military matters.
3. Gases and passions.

We showed up, handbags, passions, and all, in the early afternoon to a mostly empty airport -- the major commercial flights are all scheduled to depart in the morning. We were headed from Kabul to northern Afghanistan for a three-day tour of the almond groves with a couple California nut experts. (They pronounced almond to rhyme with "salmon," something I never quite got used to). The airport staff handed us flattering little Frequent Flyer -- Kunduz bag tags and hurried us through security to our two-prop AirServ charter plane. We scrunched into our seats; the pilots elbowed their way down the two-foot-wide aisle, buckled up, then craned their heads back for a conversational safety lecture.

I'd braced myself for a bumpy ride, but the skies were friendly -- and the view from the air so breathtaking I probably wouldn't have noticed if we'd dropped an engine. The mountains of Panjshir rose up like a white wall to our right, and to the left was the great central massif of Afghanistan, with ridge after snow-capped ridge rippling out to the horizon. Mohibi, our Afghan companion, pointed out the winding ravines running up to Bamiyan at the heart of the country. I was glued to the window for the whole flight. The mountains became hills, the hills gently rolling grassland, and we dropped smoothly into Kunduz.

The trip quickly became less smooth. We had sent up a couple of drivers the day before -- and, per our company's new security policy, we had called up the ex-military guy who runs the main protection racket in Kabul and asked him to send two cars full of hired "shooters" for our defense. However, when we arrived at Kunduz airport (which is a couple miles out of town), we found ourselves alone save for a handful of curious airport guards. After a couple of heated phone calls, our drivers showed up, speeding like the devil. Turned out they'd been ready to leave for the airport on time, but the shooters had taken a little while to muster up. As we spoke, our security escort arrived: two SUVs full of skinny, scruffy, shabbily clad Panjshiri irregulars, chain-smoking and casually brandishing their Kalashnikovs as they piled out of their cars. They didn't look very impressive. I imagine the Soviets thought the same thing.

We took off for town. The roads around Kunduz are unpaved, and throw up tremendous clouds of fine white dust as you drive along them. Somehow, our shooters managed to lose us in the cloud. I asked where they'd gone. Mohibi doubtfully said, "I think I saw them turn back to the airport." I asked why on earth they would have gone back to the airport. Mohibi shrugged and said, "Because the sky is so high" -- a wonderful Afghan phrase, which I heard him use a lot over the next few days. The shooters later caught up with us, and chewed out our drivers at length for "losing" them again. They then informed us that today, they were only contracted to escort us around Kunduz city, and that if we were going to drive out of the city for site visits we would need to pay them extra for petrol. This so irked our Afghan companion that he told them to get lost and meet us tomorrow morning. We drove around for the rest of the afternoon cheerfully unprotected.

Kunduz is a small provincial capital, with half-paved streets full of colorful horse-drawn carts. It's the city where the Taliban lost the war for the North back in 2001 (also losing one John Walker Lindh as a captive to the conquering Northern Alliance), and it was the first (and so far the only) city outside Kabul to get its own ISAF peacekeeping force. Course, there was already a pretty robust peace to keep -- unlike, say, the cities of Herat or Mazar-e-Sharif, Kunduz had no mighty warlord or clashing commanders to make life difficult for occupying troops, and it's well away from the Taliban resurgence. The surrounding countryside reportedly has a bit of a bandit problem, but the roads north to Tajikistan are open again. Power wires that were yanked down and sold as copper to Pakistan during the war are going back up, with electricity two or three hours a day.

The farm country around Kunduz is simply beautiful: broad fields of golden wheat and brilliant green rice, densely planted stands of poplar, old almond trees shading the fields. And when you head south out of the city, you quickly find yourself driving through my stereotype of a Central Asian landscape: a broad tableland of pasture and wheat fields, with a wall of nearly treeless pale green hills springing up at the horizon, and the snowy mountains of Badakhshan drifting sky-blue in the distance.

As we drove, I jokingly asked Mohibi why the Afghans referred to the mountains as the Hindu Kush -- seemed odd, given that they're in a resoundingly Muslim-majority region. "Well, you see, once there was an Afghan and a Hindu traveling together from Hindustan to Afghanistan," Mohibi informed me, beaming. "The Hindu had a very warm wolf skin coat, and the Afghan had only a shirt, but he had enough money, and he was very clever. So he said to the Hindu, give me your coat and I will give you all my money. The Hindu was greedy, he said okay. So the Afghan took the coat. When they came to the mountain, the Hindu realized it was so cold, so he said, I will pay you double, just give me back the coat. The Afghan said no. Soon the Hindu drop dead. The Afghan take all his money and keep the coat. That is why they call it 'Hindu' -- meaning Hindu -- and 'Kush' -- meaning kill." I learn something new every day.

We visited a bunch of farmer associations, orchards, and nurseries that afternoon. Our visiting California consultants had brought along sacks of cheap plastic animals, the kind you can buy by the hundred in most dollar stores in the States, and handed them out one at a time to the local kids wherever we went. It was a nice idea -- you never saw a little molded plastic pelican inspire such mirth and delight. They said that whenever they went to Mexico, they brought toy soldiers, but had thought better of it in this case.

The "Modesto boys" also dispensed little snippets of agronomical wisdom, but the whole three-day trip was mostly an excuse for our Deputy Head of Project for Agriculture to drive around the north and get a feel for the place. The Afghan farmers spread out blankets, carpets, and pillows in the shade of the almond trees, gave us juice boxes imported from Pakistan, and tried to draw our attention away from the opium poppies three fields over. When it finally began to get dark, we drove back to the German guesthouse in Kunduz.

Our dinner topics that night included rhetting, scutching, and hackling. You might think this was just the common South Asian expat game of describing the grotesque symptoms of whatever stomach virus we contracted from last night's salad. But no -- one of our companions was astonished to find that the local Afghans only used flax as an oilseed, and had never heard of linen. He immediately launched into a Heineken-fueled explanation of every step in the process of extracting flax fibers and turning them into tablecloths. As you might expect for a process older than the English language, it's got its own highly specific medieval-sounding vocabulary. Afghan and American alike, the rest of us listened with baffled interest.

Then our Deputy Head began to argue that our project should focus on getting Afghans to invest in "tree bonds" -- selling the ten-year income stream from a poplar grove. Apparently it worked in Bolivia. When someone questioned whether Afghan poplars were really a secure investment, the Deputy Head shook a finger in our collective faces. "I've worked in international development for forty long years, and it's been one failure after another. You try an idea, you hope it'll work, and it never does. But this, this works. This is my home run." The prospect of working in this field for four decades and coming out of it with a single success -- and tree bonds, at that -- was a bit discouraging.

We eventually crashed in our mildewed, over-warm rooms. I woke up around six and washed my hair in the sink (no functional shower) before hitting the road again.

more to follow....

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# Posted 6:02 AM by Patrick Belton  

OUR HONOURED DEAD: General Logan's General Order #11, officially established Memorial Day (then called Decoration Day) in 1868. The day is celebrated officially in the United States by the placing of a small flag onto each grave at the Arlington National Cemetery, and the laying of a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier by the President.

PBS has a tribute. The White House Commission on Remembrance encourages the observance of one minute of silence at three o'clock in recognition of the nation's war dead.

They shall not grow old, as we that are left grow old:
Age shall not weary them, nor the years condemn.
At the going down of the sun and in the morning
We will remember them.
-Laurence Binyon, Trinity College, Oxford, 1914

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# Posted 5:14 AM by Patrick Belton  

ON A PERSONAL NOTE....Congratulations to OxBlog's good friends Hae Won and Wilson! Those of us who've already bought shares in the institution of marriage have a strong interest in keeping the share price high and protecting our investment, so thanks, you guys! :) (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:37 AM by David Adesnik  

GANDALF & SEX AND THE CITY: Did you know that Kim Cattrall debuted on Broadway opposite Ian McKellen in Chekhov's Wild Honey? (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 10:39 PM by David Adesnik  

WES CLARK, SUPERPUNDIT: Suddenly, he's everywhere. A cover story in the Washington Monthly. A share of the cover from TNR's special issue on Iraq. What is it that Wes Clark wants to say?

With regard to Iraq, Clark has two big ideas -- one new and one old. The old idea is that if we're nice to Europe, it will send its soldiers over to Iraq to die for our cause. Given that the French have already said that their soldiers will never, ever serve in Iraq, that approach probably won't work. Clark's new idea is that the United States must

involve regional governments in Iraq's reconstruction, giving them a seat at the table in that country's development so they understand that they are not the next targets of regime change.

By regional governments, Clark actually does mean Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, etc. Of course, has to wonder how we can help Iraq become more democratic by involving some of the world's most repressive dictatorships in its reconstruction. The closest Clark comes to answering this question is when he writes that

Of course, the United States will likely differ sharply with the positions some of these states take, but it is better to hash out such issues at the negotiating table than in vitriolic exchanges via the media.

Actually, I prefer vitriolic exchanges via the media. Compromising with Syria, Iran and Saudi Arabia about the future of Iraq means selling out the Iraqis we supposedly liberated.

Now what about Clark's cover essay in the Washington Monthly? It's supposed to be the big think-piece in which he demonstrates that he can apply the lessons of history to solve those problems that ignorant neo-cons just don't understand. (Translation: "Please, please Mr. Kerry, make me your Secretary of State!") Of course, to apply the lessons of history, you actually have to know some history first. Let's start with the last two sentences of Clark's essay:

If the events of the last year tell us anything, it is that democracy in the Middle East is unlikely to come at the point of our gun. And Ronald Reagan would have known better than to try.

Actually, promoting democracy at gunpoint was exactly what Reagan was all about. Remember Nicaragua? You know, the country where the United States sent guns to brutal right-wing guerrillas in the hope that they would promote democracy?

Bizarrely enough, that strategy worked despite its appalling cost in terms of Nicaraguan blood. A similar strategy, perhaps even bloodier, did the trick in El Salvador. Unfortunately, things in Afghanistan didn't turn out as well. Now, Clark has gone on the record saying that he voted for Reagan. As far as I can tell, he must've confused Reagan with Mondale.

Getting back to the point, the big lesson that Clark draws from our experience in the Cold War is that cultural engagement is the secret to victory. He writes that

During the 1950s and 1960s, containment...[entailed] holding the line against Soviet expansion with U.S. military buildups while quietly advancing a simultaneous program of cultural engagement with citizens and dissidents in countries under the Soviet thumb...

[In the 1980s], Western organizations provided training for a generation of human-rights workers. Western broadcast media pumped in culture and political thought, raising popular expectations and undercutting Communist state propaganda. And Western businesses and financial institutions entered the scene, too, ensnaring command economies in Western market pricing and credit practices.

Unless Clark is talking about China, I really can't think of any Communist state whose command economy even came close to being "ensnared" by Western corporations. As for Western media, the West Germans were pretty much the only ones who reached a Communist audience, but not in the Soviet Union. And as for the 1950s and 1960s, there were really no "cultural engagement" programs of any significance. In short, Clark's history of the Cold War is basically imaginary.

So there. I've now spent far too much time criticizing someone whom Democratic voters (except in Oklahoma) decided wasn't good enough to be their candidate for President. But when you're a graduate student, you feel compelled to expose the ignorance of anyone who tramples on your area of expertise. How demented. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 10:19 PM by David Adesnik  

CHALABI CENTRAL: Laura Rozen is a professional journalist whose blog has become the uber-source for liberals following the Chalabi scandal. Rozen seems to be extremely well-informed although her resentment of the neo-cons is palpable and vehement. (Yes, I know. Most liberals believe that being extremely well-informed and extremely resentful of the neo-cons go hand in hand. But I think you get what I'm saying.) (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 10:02 PM by David Adesnik  

WHAT LIBERAL MEDIA? Kevin Drum is bashing Fred Barnes. While you can judge the merits their arguments for yourself, what really interests me is how the biggest ideological divide between myself and moderate liberal bloggers such as Kevin and Matt Yglesias is the issue of media bias. Neither of them will give an inch on this issue and constantly denounce conservative criticism of the media as disingenuous or even dishonest.

For most of America, the conservative-liberal divide focuses on Iraq, both the invasion and its aftermath. Yet in spite of my relative optimism about both, I share Kevin and Matt's sense that all of the big decisions have been close calls and that a strong case exists for both sides. So why has the issue of media bias become so divisive? My best guess is that because bloggers depend so much on mainstream journalists, even the slightest differences in our perception of their work become greatly magnified. But again, that's just a guess. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 5:46 PM by Patrick Belton  

MORE ON ALLAWI: Just to follow up on David's post below, the Arabic page of Allawi's Iraqi National Accord party spells his name أياد علاوي - that is, with no shadda over the لا ('la'), and the shadda is generally not meant to be omitted.

On the other hand, the INA's English pages consistently spell his name 'Allawi', suggesting that it's probably the more appropriate English spelling. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 4:55 PM by David Adesnik  

THE CASE AGAINST ALLAWI: Courtesy of Spencer Ackerman. Ackerman overdoes it, but makes some good points. Unfortunately, he doesn't look at the all-important relationship between Allawi and Sistani, which is supposedly good.

On a related note, there seems to be persistent disagreement about whether to spell the Prime Minister's name "Alawi" or "Allawi". I haven't seen the PM's name spelled out in Arabic, but I'm guessing that the relevant issue is whether or not there is a pronunciation marker known as a "shadda" over the 'L' in Allawi's name. The role of the shadda is to double the sound of a consonant, so it would turn 'L' into 'LL'. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 4:42 PM by David Adesnik  

THE GREATEST GENERATION -- OR THE MOST LASCIVIOUS?

Guy Kemp, 85, a former Navy Seabee who served in the Pacific, found himself jitterbugging to "Chattanooga Choo-Choo" with a woman he didn't know.

Hey, I hope I'm that energetic at 85. Here at OxBlog, we've only got respect for the millions who served in the War. We just think they need a little ribbing, too. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:55 PM by Patrick Belton  

RAIN ON YOUR WEDDING DAY NOT REALLY IRONIC, RESEARCHERS FIND: OxBlog favourite Belle Waring, just one of the many excellent bloggers to be found over on Crooked Timber, points out that the preponderance of situations in the Alanis Morrisette Song 'Ironic' were not, in fact, ironic:

A recent post on our blog about whether any of the situations in the Alanis Morrisette Song “Ironic” were, in fact, ironic, has garnered unexpected interest. I looked at the lyrics more carefully, and I think perhaps half could be said to qualify in an extended sense, that is, they seem like dramatic irony. So: “rain on your wedding day” is unquestionably not ironic, it’s just somewhat unfortunate. But I’ll give her “death-row pardon two minutes late”, I guess, if we accept a certain notion of irony I outline below.

(0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 8:48 AM by Patrick Belton  

AND DÉJÀ VU ALL-OVER-AGAIN HEADLINE OF THE DAY: 'Hamas leader killed in Israeli helicopter strike.' From CNN. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 8:38 AM by Patrick Belton  

AMBITION ODDLY PHRASED QUOTE OF THE DAY: From WaPo: Although some Kerry staff aides cringe at their nickname, Holbrooke jested upon hearing that he is called a Pooh-bah, "It's the highest rank I've ever held, and I hope by the end of the campaign to be promoted to pasha." (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 8:01 AM by Patrick Belton  

I'M GLAD THERE'S AN ACADEMY, BECAUSE: how else then would we have articles such as On Toothpicking in Early Hominids, by W.A. Agger, T.L. McAndrews, and J.A. Hlaudy, Current Anthropology (45:3), June 2004, Page 403ff. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 2:12 AM by David Adesnik  

MORE GORE: Robert Tagorda points out a rather uncomfortable contradiction in the Vice President's recent speech. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 2:02 AM by David Adesnik  

KERRY ON IRAQ: The Bush-Cheney website has posted a rather clever interactive page that allows you to click on a given date and see what John Kerry was saying about Iraq at the time. There is no smoking gun which allows you to say "Ha! I knew he was a hypocrite!", but it is amazing how many different positions Kerry can appear to take without actually contradicting himself. On the other hand, Kerry seems to recognize that his criticism of the President can only go so far. It's not an easy position to be in. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 8:03 PM by David Adesnik  

A TALE OF TWO KERRYS: Both the WaPo and NYT have put up detailed summaries of Kerry's recent remarks about foreign policy. The headlines are all that you need to tell the difference between the two papers perspectives. Since noon, the top story on the WaPo website has been "Kerry: Security Trumps Promoting Democracy". On the NYT homepage, the third bullet point beneath a story about Iraq has a link entitled "Kerry Faults Bush on Security Issues". (NB: These are the headlines on the front page of the WaPo and NYT, respectively. The URLs for the articles have slightly different ones.)

So, what did Kerry actually say? The first sentence in the WaPo account reads:

Sen. John F. Kerry indicated that as president he would play down the promotion of democracy as a leading goal in dealing with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, China and Russia, instead focusing on other objectives that he said are more central to the United States' security.

Not what I'd like to hear, but not an unreasonable position either. After all, how much has Bush done for democracy in any of those countries? One might even say that the President's lofty rhetoric and minimal follow-through have reinforced certain dictators' suspicions that the US only cares about Al Qaeda.

Of course, just because Kerry's position is reasonable doesn't mean the NYT should've ignored it. The NYT piece is almost entirely about Kerry's comments on North Korea and his belief that the Bush administration is excessively preoccupied with Iraq.

Now, it's probably worth mentioning that a WaPo correspondent conducted the interview with Kerry. Thus, that paper has an incentive to turn it into big news while the NYT has an incentive to play it down. Still, I would've appreciated at least one sentence describing Kerry's demotion of democracy to a secondary United States objective.

While it's sort of inevitable that different papers provide different accounts of the same event, the difference here seems to have ideological connotations. After all, it was just three days ago that a NYT news analysis column declared that Kerry and Bush had almost identical positions on Iraq -- totally disregarding Kerry's demotion of democracy to a secondary objective there.

Of course, one could turn this whole analysis around and say that the WaPo is promoting its own agenda which just happens to resemble the one that we favor here on OxBlog. But given that one of the unspoken principles of campaign coverage is that journalists have an obligation to point out significant differences between the candidates, it's hard to understand how the Times could ignore remarks made by Kerry that are so completely at odd with the positions taken by Bush. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 5:32 PM by Patrick Belton  

WRONG, WRONG, WRONG.

(Wrong.) (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 3:25 PM by David Adesnik  

A DAMN USEFUL SITE: I really like Memeorandum. Basically, it's a site that complies a list of the Big Media stories most linked to by bloggers on all sides of the political spectrum. Without any pretensions of being scientific, it does a surprisingly good job of filtering out the noise and delivering the news that people actually care about. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 3:23 PM by David Adesnik  

TERRORISTS UNLEASH PLAGUE OF CICADAS: MSNBC reports that John Ashcroft will believe anything. I can't vouch for the MSNBC reports, but it definitely fits with my prejudices about Ashcroft. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 3:16 PM by David Adesnik  

DEVIL'S ADVOCATES: The NYT reports that Richard Perle & Co. stormed into Condi Rice's office to demand that Jerry Bremer stop beating up on Ahmad Chalabi. How embarrassing. Leo Strauss must be rolling in his grave. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:28 PM by Patrick Belton  

CAPTION OF THE DAY award goes to BBC, for its caption accompanying a photograph which accompanied a report on violent protests taking place at the end of an EU-Latin America summit in Guadalajara: 'The rioters did not appear to be promoting a particular cause'. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 5:47 AM by Patrick Belton  

IRANIAN PLANS TO 'TAKE OVER' BRITAIN: This from segments of Iran's Revolutionary Guards opposed to President Khatami's policy of 'dialogue of civilisations', and via Al-Sharq al-Awsat, and MEMRI. More convincingly, they're making an effort at recruiting suicide volunteers to be sent to Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:54 AM by David Adesnik  

FASCINATING NONSENSE: I have absolutely no idea what to make of the polls coming out of Iraq. The most comprehensive poll, conducted by USA Today/CNN/Gallup, starts out sounding like a White House press release. More Iraqis say they are better off rather than worse off since the invasion. More than 60% think Iraq will be better off in five years than it was before the invasion.

Then the news gets even better: 40% of Iraqis identify democracy as the best form of government for Iraq, with only 12% preferring an Iranian model. 50% think that five years from now Iraq will be a democracy, with no other form of government getting more than 12 percent. (Imagine asking Americans the same question!) Finally, and almost unbelievably, an overwhelming majority of Iraqis favor constitutional provisions protecting freedom of religion (73%), freedom of assembly (77%), and freedom of speech (94%).

Now here's the bad news: The CPA approval rating is just 23%, with 46% against it. The split for the US as a whole is 23-55. The UN split is 33-23 with 37 undecided. 50% say the US isn't serious about establishing a democratic system, while 37% say it is. 55% say the US won't leave unless it is forced out. When it comes to occupation forces, 45% want them gone after June 30th while another 45% don't.

By the way, don't forget to adjust all of these numbers about 15% in the unhappy direction, since the Kurds are cheerleaders for the Bush-Cheney re-election effort. For example, 96% of them see the US favorably and 98% believe it wants to promote democracy in Iraq.

So, what can one say about numbers like this? First of all, despite the apparent contradictions, I think the numbers are probably sound since an ABC News poll in February got very similar results. According to ABC, Iraqis are happy with how things are, think they're getting better, but want the US out. 49% want democracy and only 21% want an Islamic state (but 28% want a strong leader "for life". Also, another finding that I could only believe after reading it in both polls was that a strong majority of Iraqis have favorable opinions of the new police and armed forces.

Albeit hesitantly, I'm going to describe these polls as good news. It would be almost unthinkable for Iraqis to still have a positive opinion of an occupying power this long after the initial invasion. But the Iraqis' optimism about the future and faith in democracy suggest that the country may really have a chance. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:51 AM by David Adesnik  

FOUR YEARS TOO LATE: "[Gore's] speech was extraordinary — blunt, colorful and delivered with the kind of passion you seldom see in politics anymore." Then again, most swing voters don't exactly share the opinions of Bob Herbert. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:48 AM by David Adesnik  

SO FUNNY I FORGOT TO LAUGH: Someone's research assistant should be editing his boss' material. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:34 AM by David Adesnik  

TYPICAL NEO-CON BULLSH**:

Sudanese peasants will be naming their sons "George Bush" because he scored a humanitarian victory this week that could be a momentous event around the globe — although almost nobody noticed. It was Bush administration diplomacy that led to an accord to end a 20-year civil war between Sudan's north and south after two million deaths.

If the peace holds, hundreds of thousands of lives will be saved, millions of refugees will return home, and a region of Africa may be revived.

Not exactly what you expect from Nick Kristof, is it? As Kristof points out, there still a long way to go in Sudan:

While Mr. Bush has done far too little, he has at least issued a written statement, sent aides to speak forcefully at the U.N. and raised the matter with Sudan's leaders. That's more than the Europeans or the U.N. has done. Where are Tony Blair and Jacques Chirac? Where are African leaders, like Nelson Mandela? Why isn't John Kerry speaking out forcefully? And why are ordinary Americans silent?

I just don't understand the guy. Three days ago, he was telling us that "Our embrace of Mr. Sharon hobbles us in Iraq even more than those photos from Abu Ghraib." Well, this much I can say: radical mood swings are a Kristof hallmark. Plus, Nick has really cute kids. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:57 PM by David Adesnik  

MURDER IS MURDER IS MURDER: Why has the Commander-in-Chief remained silent about the murder of at least ten prisoners of war and the refusal of the Pentagon to investigate their deaths seriously? (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:50 PM by David Adesnik  

CIA FAVORITE BECOMES IRAQI PM: On the one hand, Iyad Allawi won the unananimous support of the Governing Council. On the other hand, won't it be a little hard for someone so closely associated with the CIA to win the trust of the average Iraqi? Then again, he apparently has Sistani's support.

One implication of Allawi's selection is that the US won't have to deal with a hypothetical request to pull its soldiers out of Iraq. Given Sistani's tolerant approach to the American presence and Allawi's own relationship with the US, it's hard to see why he would play the nationalist card unless he were completely desperate for support.

But with Sistani's backing, there is little chance that he will ever be that deseprate. (Unless he did something really stupid like spying for the Iranian government...)

UPDATE: The NYT tells quite a different story. They're calling Alawi "a choice for prime minister certain to be seen more as an American candidate than one of the United Nations or the Iraqis themselves." (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 2:11 PM by David Adesnik  

AN EXTRAORDINARY FILM: Two nights ago, I had the pleasure of watching The Mission. First shown in 1986, it recounts the heart-rending struggle of Jesuit missionaries to protect indigenous South Americans from enslavement and murder.

The film is an artistic triumph in every respect. Its narrative is compelling. Both Robert DeNiro and Jeremy Irons give evocative performances. But above all, it is the cinematography that will take your breath away. Even though any amateur with a video camera can make the lush canyons of South America look stunning, The Mission not only provides awesome footage of the landscape that no amateur could shoot, but also integrates the landscape into the narrative, thus adding tremendous emotional depth to both the characters and their natural environment.

Another remarkable aspect of the film is its decision to cast the Waunana tribe of Colombia as the Guarani people embraced by the Jesuits. For those with access to the most recent DVD version of the film, I highly recommend the documentary that comes along with it. In it, director Roland Joffe, best known for The Killing Fields, explains how it was possible to win the trust and hire hundreds of actors belonging to an impoverished Colombian tribe. Although barely familiar with modern technology and often exploited by pale-skinned outsiders, the Waunana traveled over 1000 miles on buses and planes in order to live for more than two months in a special village constructed to resemble their home in the Cauca region of Colombia. With this in mind, their impressive performance in the film becomes all the more spectacular.

Finally, I think it is important to comment on the spiritual dimension of the film. In the popular mind, there are few heroes associated with the European arrival in the Western hemisphere. Often, one thinks of Catholicism as a justification for the brutal repression of the hemisphere's natives. Yet the history of the Jesuits reminds us that there was an entire order devoted to the highest ideals of a humane Christianity. For those of us who are not Christians, I think that this aspect of The Mission does far more to explain the power of the Christian than does the unremitting violence of a film like The Passion.

UPDATE: SM reminds me to mention that The Mission also has an incredible score. And she's absolutely right. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 2:00 PM by Patrick Belton  

IDEA OF THE WEEK: SUCCEED IN IRAQ - The centrist Democratic Leadership Council (home of, for instance, hawkish moderate Democratic Senators Lieberman and Clinton, among others) offers a new idea to the Democratic party: succeed in Iraq.

In their weekly newsletter, after applauding Kerry's Seattle speech for resisting pressure in his party to cut and run, the DLC suggests several further steps for Kerry to take on Iraq. In the Seattle speech, saying that "the day is late and the situation in Iraq is grim," Kerry had called on Bush to use the upcoming NATO summit in Istanbul to convince Europeans to accept Iraq as an alliance mission; to work at the G-8 summit in Georgia next month, to expand international support for training Iraq's security forces; and to propose the creation of an International High Commissioner, Bosnia-style, to work with Iraqis in organising elections, drafting a constitution, and coordinating reconstruction. While the use of Bosnia's international governance structure as a model might raise a few eyebrows from people with experience in Bosnian reconstruction, that Kerry is even speaking along these lines shows the merciful ascendence of Democratic hawks such as Rand Beers within the broad tent that is the Kerry campaign.

The DLC goes on to suggest sending additional troops as necessary, doing everything consistent with security to transfer governing authority to the sovereign caretaker government on June 30, and accelerate an investigation into the Abu Ghirab prisoner abuses. Most controversially, they also call for a perfunctory expression of American penitence that 'mistakes were made' in the run-up to the Iraq war, as a sop to court closer allied cooperation in the post-war period. This might give heartburn to some...but their other stuff sounds so good, you almost want to give it to them.

For more on the moderate DLC's role in a presidential campaign when politics is increasingly coming to be played out between ideological extremes, see this piece:

When the once-mighty Democratic Leadership Council holds its annual "national conversation" Friday and Saturday in Phoenix, the highlight is unlikely to be the seminars about new ways of running government or the showcasing of centrist candidates.

Instead, topic A will be how to rally around John Kerry - the kind of Massachusetts liberal this group was created to counter - and how to make moderates matter in an election where they're being increasingly marginalized.

"Democrats are frustrated," [political analyst Stuart Rothenberg] said, "and they're not in the mood for the kind of nuance this group offers." DLC loyalists and officials strongly disagree, saying Kerry is making all the right moves so far.

Other past startling DLC ideas of the week include improving charter schools, making state procurement more efficient, simplifying the tax code, introducing smaller, more rigorous high schools into the inner city, and finishing the job on welfare reform. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 1:51 PM by David Adesnik  

REALITY FAR MORE RIDICULOUS THAN ONION: Get some Americans together in Oxford, and it will take all of four minutes for one of us to complain about how condescending the British are. In that vein, The Onion has published an article entitled "US Gives Up Trying to Impress England". (Why "England" and not "Britain"? Is the United States still committed to impressing Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales? Or do the Scots, Irish and Welsh empathize with Americans because they have suffered so much from English condescension as well?)

While the Onion's missive gives an occasional nod to the reality of British condescension, its real message is that Americans are vulgar and that it is the United States which is actually guilty of treating other nations in an arrogant and childish manner. As for vulgarity, one might consider the following observation about British undergarments, one which fits quite nicely with my own observations as an erstwhile UK resident. And with regard to diplomacy, one might consider the following bit of correspondence from an advice column in the Spectator (via BG):

Q. Some mega-rich American bankers bought the house opposite and have outraged the neighbourhood with two solid years of construction work — endless daily noise from a circular mechanical digger gouging out a second basement, thick dust, meaning endless trips to an expensive carwash, endless window-cleaning, blocked street, lost car parking, and rude and aggressive builders — without a hint of an apology at any time. The traditional form here is to send a charming note apologising in advance or wine (relating to height of inconvenience) in retrospect.

How can I show these dreadful vulgar people that they are universally loathed and completely unwelcome while staying within the law? Have you any suggestions for killer insults which would not be actionable (these people are New Yorkers)?

Name withheld, London W11

A. As you live in the Notting Hill area you doubtless have a wide circle of friendly neighbours who work in the media, most pertinently people who produce reality television. Simply arrange for the offending neighbours to receive a letter from a production company announcing that they are to be the focus of a forthcoming Neighbours from Hell shockumentary (which is in the very early stages of production) and requesting an interview in which they will have the opportunity to hit back at their critics in the surrounding streets. ‘Please telephone to arrange a suitable time when we can film you outside the property when the diggers are in action.’ Even if you do not see an end to the noise, you will have the satisfaction of having unnerved the offenders and possibly put them to the expense and inconvenience of issuing an injunction. You may even find someone who genuinely wants to make such a documentary. The haves would enjoy feeling outraged as they watched and the have-nots would enjoy for quite different reasons.

Gotta love that special relationship. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 8:09 AM by Patrick Belton  

POLLY TOYNBEE PEDDLES THE SAME OLD TIRED IMAGES OF AMERICANS AS FAT, UNEQUAL, AND EVIL. Fortunately, the blogosphere has Scott Burgess to correct her by actually doing research rather than just recycling racist stereotypes:

Polly Toynbee's Faux Fat 'Facts'

Not only have The Guardian editors and Lord Tebbit weighed in on the causes of the "obesity epidemic," today the inimitable Polly Toynbee enters the fray. It turns out that neither evil corporations nor a government eager to promote buggery (see yesterday's post) is responsible for the problem, and it's certainly not caused by people eating too much and exercising too little.

So what is the real cause? Well:

"It is inequality and disrespect that makes people fat"

Polly offers precious few facts to support this extraordinary conclusion - although she does say that:

"obesity took off 25 years ago, up 400% in the years when inequality has exploded."

Unsurprisingly, she offers no evidence for this assertion, nor any that would support a causal link.

She continues:

"The inequality/obesity link is mirrored internationally. America has by far the most unequal society and by far the fattest. Britain and Australia come next. Europe is better and the Scandinavian countries best of all ... the narrower the status and income gap between high and low, the narrower the waistbands."

Absolute statements invite scrutiny, especially when they're backed by - well - nothing at all. So I did some scrutinising, with the following results:

"America has by far the most unequal society..."

No it doesn't. Latin American and African countries have the most unequal societies - by far. A quick look at the Ginni Index figure (a measure of income inequality) for countries worldwide shows that of the 30 most "unequal societies," only three (Phillipines, Papua New Guinea and Malaysia) aren't in Africa or South/Central America. The United States comes in at number 41, with a Ginni index of 40.8, very close to the worldwide average of 39.48.

"... and by far the fattest."

No it doesn't - Pacific Islanders have by far the fattest. Among non-Pacific Islanders, residents of Greece, Jordan, Palestine, Panama, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates are also fatter than Americans.

"Britain and Australia come next."

No they don't. The following countries rank ahead of England (which has the highest rate in Britain):

Albania (urban), Argentina, Bahrain, Barbados, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Egypt, Israel, Kuwait, Malta, Mexico and Paraguay.

"... the Scandinavian countries best of all."

No they're not. Finland is in a statistical dead heat with England (22.5% each). If we define "Scandinavian countries" as Sweden, Norway, Finland and Denmark, and average the obesity rates in those countries, we see that the following countries are slimmer (I have excluded countries where famine and starvation are endemic):

Austria, Brazil, China, France, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Poland, Singapore, South Korea, Switzerland, Taiwan and Vietnam.

Looks like oriental countries are actually "best of all" - and, interestingly enough, Denmark ranks third worldwide in "Mortality: Obesity (per capita)," with a rate nearly double that of the US, according to the WHO.

"But the narrower the status and income gap between high and low, the narrower the waistbands."

Again, false. Comparing Ginni figures and obesity rates, we find that:

• Brazil is third in the world in income inequality, but has an obesity rate below that of any Scandinavian country.
• Hungary, ranked second in income equality, has an obesity rate just 1.7 percentage points less than that of England.
• Finland - 7th best in equality - has the same rate as England, as noted above.
• The Czech Republic, despite being 6th best in terms of income equality, has a higher obesity rate than England.
• Malaysia, which ranks second in inequality outside of Africa and Latin America, has a minuscule rate of about 6%.

Unfortunately, no statistics are available as to the obesity rate in Belarus, which leads the world in income equality, and therefore represents Polly Toynbee's vision of heaven on earth.

Polly is correct about one thing, though. As she puts it:

"This obesity debate is full of humbug and denial."

I couldn't have said it any better.

Me neither.

___________
Sources:
Ginni figures are from the CIA world factbook, and are presented here.
Obesity rates are from the International Association for the Study of Obesity, and are presented here. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 7:10 AM by Patrick Belton  

OXBLOG BEST LINE OF THE DAY: To Miss (sorry, lately Dr) Orli Bahcall, new editor of Nature Genetics, and expert in the mathematical modelling of infectious diseases at Imperial College, London, when asked at parties what she does: 'I model in London'. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 7:00 AM by Patrick Belton  

IRAQ NEWS UPDATE: All members of a four-person NBC television crew taken hostage in Fallujah have been released after two days in captivity, according to a CPA news release. The Fallujah Brigade was reportedly instrumental in securing their release. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 9:27 PM by David Adesnik  

PHIL CARTER HAS MOVED: To www.intel-dump.com. As usual, he is putting up first-rate posts on military affairs, especially the events at Abu Ghraib and the meaning of heroism. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 8:59 PM by David Adesnik  

FROM MILOSEVIC TO ABU GHRAIB: Greg Djerejian spent two years working for the International Rescue Committee in the former Yugoslavia. Greg writes that

My main responsibility was to interview refugees and act as their advocates to secure them refugee status in the United States.

During this time, I interviewed hundreds of people who had suffered immensely. Young women raped by Bosnian Serb paramilitaries in Sarajevo, a Bosnian Muslim man who had escaped Srebrenica, another man from the Prijedor area who had lost his mother, father and all of his seven siblings to a massacre.

With that experience in mind, Greg meditates on the significance of Abu Ghraib. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 8:49 PM by David Adesnik  

HANDS OFF THE BUSH DAUGHTERS! Ted Barlow calls on his fellow liberal bloggers to avoid making any derisive remarks about the Bush daughters. When conservatives made fun of Chelsea, they only generated sympathy for her and her father.

By extension, I think it's fair to say that I, as an undecided/not-liberal/not-conservative blogger have an unrestricted right to give the Bush daughters a hard time. At the moment, I have nothing bad to say about Jenna & Barbara. However, I think that their father could break all existing records for political fundraising if the Bush twins took on the Olsen twins in a mud-wrestling match broadcast live on the web.

PS OxBlog regrets any sexist connotations that such an event might have. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 7:21 PM by David Adesnik  

RUSSIA'S YOUNG DICTATORS: The WaPo has a long and interesting article about the struggle of one Russian teacher to persuade her students of the perils of Communist dictatorship. While the students' perspectives are often disturbing, especially their apologias for Stalin, what I found far more interesting was the struggle of the teacher, Irina Suvolokina, to lead her students to discover the merits of freedom on their own. Trained in the Soviet era, Irina seems unsure of how to open the minds of those who do not see things her way.

While the tone of the WaPo's coverage is fairly pessimistic, I think it may underestimate the degree to which high school students have to try on ideas for size before discovering which ones fit with their lived experience. While Tanya Levina may describe fascism and communism as "systems of genius", how will she feel when she confront a teacher or other authority figure who tries to shove their values down her throat? Then, perhaps, she will remember the democrat, Ms. Suvolokina, who even let Stalin's advocates have their say. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 4:59 AM by Patrick Belton  

WANNA PARTNER? If you're from a city anywhere in the UK, and think your local authority might be interested in forming a sister-city relationship with Almaty, Kazakhstan; Borjomi, Georgia; or Dushanbe, Tajikistan, then please do drop this fellow a note! (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 1:21 AM by David Adesnik  

WHO READS BLOGS? Both Andrew Sullivan and Josh Marshall have taken demographic surveys of their readership.

The most stunning finding of both surveys is that almost half of TPM (46%) and Sullivan (50%) readers have a graduate degree. Another 35%, or 85% of the total, have undergraduate degrees. The national figures for graduate and bachelor's degrees are 9% and 24% respectively.

On a related note, 70% of TPM and Sullivan readers have an income of over $50,000 per year, with half of those 70% earning over $100,000 per year. (National income figures are here, but refer to households rather than individuals.)

I'm not sure what to make of all this. Are blog readers the best and brightest of their generation? Or is their lack of diversity apalling? (By the way, both sites have an 80% male readership.)

While one might hope for an ideal world in which factory workers and secretaries demonstrate just as much interest in the news as do those they work for, I take some comfort in the fact that Josh and Andrew cater to identical demographics with radically opposing viewpoints. At minimum, we can expect a high-level debate.

UPDATE: DS writes

"I just want you to know that I, a lowly secretary, do read blogs… many times both both Andrew Sullivan and TPM to get a broader viewpoint – not to mention “Oxblog” … I find the tone of your little missive condescending and elitist… but, hey, why am I not surprised…"

(0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:42 AM by David Adesnik  

GORE ON THE WARPATH: Here's some of what Al Gore said today at New York University:

The abuse of the prisoners at Abu Ghraib flowed directly from the abuse of the truth that characterized the Administration's march to war and the abuse of the trust that had been placed in President Bush by the American people in the aftermath of September 11th...

We are less safe because of his policies. He has created more anger and righteous indignation against us as Americans than any leader of our country in the 228 years of our existence as a nation -- because of his attitude of contempt for any person, institution or nation who disagrees with him...

Remember how shocked each of us, individually, was when we first saw those hideous images...these abuses [did not] spring from a few twisted minds at the lowest ranks of our military enlisted personnel. No, it came from twisted values and atrocious policies at the highest levels of our government. This was done in our name, by our leaders.

These horrors were the predictable consequence of policy choices that flowed directly from this administration's contempt for the rule of law.

I'm going to let all of that go without comment. What really struck me was Gore's observation that

David Kay concluded his search for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq with the famous verdict: "we were all wrong." And for many Americans, Kay's statement seemed to symbolize the awful collision between reality and all of the false and fading impressions President Bush had fostered in building support for his policy of going to war.

It's as if Gore had completely forgotten how the administration he served as Vice President has insisted time and again that Saddam Hussein had a substantial arsenal of weapons of mass destruction. While Gore seems to include himself in the "we" who were all wrong, he suggests that only the current President misled the nation. Anyhow, Maureen Dowd liked the speech. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:49 PM by David Adesnik  

LOW TURNOUT IN AMERICAN IDOL VOTE: Just hours ago, viewers cast 65 million votes in the final round of the American Idol competition. In contrast, American citizens cast over 105 million votes in the November 2000 presidential election. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 7:24 PM by David Adesnik  

CHALABI-GATE: This is one of the issues I missed out on while in California, so all I can really do is direct you to some of Kevin Drum's comprehensive posts on the subject. For background on Chalabi, see Kevin's detailed timeline. The big question, of course, is what exactly Chalabi did to provoke a US raid on his compound.

While Josh Marshall thinks it's just a matter of Beltway politics, Kevin thinks that Big Media got the story right that Chalabi was caught red-handed selling us out to the Iranians. Incidentally, TPM's hypothesis matches up with that of Chalabi booster Michael Ledeen, who still suspects that Chalabi was a victim of politics, not of his own crimes. Kevin, however, thinks Michael is grasping at straws.

One interesting side effect of Chalabi-gate is that it has forced the NY Times to issue a lengthy and detailed public apology for its breathless reporting about Iraqi WMD programs. As Jack Shafer points out, almost everything the Times got wrong was the fault of correspondent Judith Miller. It is certainly quite remarkable that such a bulwark of anti-war sentiment would be taken in by shoddy anti-Saddam propaganda.

One might say that this is red-flag evidence of conservative media bias. My sense, however, is that the NYT fell prey to the consensus across the spectrum that Saddam really did have major stockpiles of WMD. With no one out there saying otherwise, why should the Times question the work of its own correspondent? And if the anti-war editors at the Times were unable to think critically about WMD, is it really surprising that Cheney and Rumsfeld had similar problems?

Anyhow, getting back to Chalabi, all OxBlog has to say is good riddance to bad rubbish. As time passes there is more and more evidence that Chalabi sold the US a bill of goods -- intentionally. WMD aside, it still reflects very poorly on Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz placed so much faith in someone with so many black marks on his resume. As we said almost eight months ago, "there is good reason to only expect the worst from Chalabi." (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 5:57 PM by David Adesnik  

NY TIMES UNFAMILIAR WITH CONCEPT OF "DEMOCRACY": The Times says that "it is getting harder every day" to tell the difference between Bush and Kerry's positions on Iraq. It reports that

In a speech last month, Mr. Kerry said the goal of the United States should be to bring about "a stable, free Iraq with a representative government, secure in its borders." That position is broadly indistinguishable from that of Mr. Bush.

Amazingly, the Times make no reference whatsoever to Kerry's statement (last month, of course) that

I have always said from day one that the goal here...is a stable Iraq, not whether or not that's a full democracy [...] I can't tell you what it's going to be, but a stable Iraq. And that stability can take several different forms.

You leave with stability, [and] you hope that you can continue the process of democratization. Obviously, that's the goal [...] With respect to getting our troops out, the measure is the stability of Iraq.

Perhaps because it benefits from the 3-hour time difference between New York and California, the LA Times headline on the morning after Kerry's remarks read: "Kerry Places Stability in Iraq Above a Democracy". But, hey, that was last month. Give Kerry a few weeks and he'll come up with something new. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 5:26 PM by David Adesnik  

KRISTOF OFF THE DEEP END: I often disagree with Nick Kristof but generally think of him as someone whose arguments are worth hearing. Then he comes up with something like this:

Our embrace of Mr. Sharon hobbles us in Iraq even more than those photos from Abu Ghraib.

Kristof is probably right that "Iraqis (in contrast with, say, Kuwaitis) genuinely sympathize with the Palestinians." But does American support for yet another Israeli prime minister in anyway compare to the rampant abuse and humiliation of Iraqi prisoners, most of whom were never charged with crimes?

Kristof's fundamental problem is that he demonizes Sharon and Bush while whitewashing their predecessors. According to Kristof, the Israeli's wall around the West Bank is no different from the East Germans wall around West Berlin. Yet if memory serves, very few West Germans strapped dynamite to themselves before riding East German buses. With regard to Bush, Kristof writes that

American presidents have always tried to be honest brokers in the Middle East. Truman, Johnson and Reagan were a bit more pro-Israeli, while Eisenhower, Carter and George H. W. Bush were a bit cooler, but all aimed for balance.

Wow. That sounds like revisionist history from the National Review. Reagan and Bush I as "balanced"? If the people of Iraq agreed with that assessment, they might, just might consider Abu Ghraib to be the lesser of Bush's evils.

Anyhow, I haven't gotten to the actual point of Kristof's column, which is that John Kerry's position on Israel is no less extreme than that of George W. Bush. On that point I agree with Mr. Kristof, and am glad that the Senator from Massachusetts has displayed a modicum of common sense. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 2:30 PM by Patrick Belton  

I THINK THIS might help explain all of the hits we've been getting from playboy.com over the last few days (via lovable lefty OxFriend Jeff Hauser). (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 4:56 AM by Patrick Belton  

THE SILENT MAJORITY: Mexican-American Jew Daniel Lubetzky and Palestinian Mohammad Darawshe from Nazareth have conducted a massive survey of 23,000 Palestinians and 17,000 Israelis, and have found that that seventy-six percent of both populations favour a two-state settlement, liberal democracy and minority rights, and mutual recognition.

The down side was that strong Palestinian majorities opposed settlements while strong Israeli majorities opposed the right of return. But in any event, the efforts of Lubetzky and Darawshe and their organisation OneVoice have demonstrated that there exists substantial broad agreement among the ordinary people of Israel and Palestine about what the contours of a final status agreement should look like - and hearteningly, that 'strong rejectionists' on both sides, even in the current dark days, number definitively as a comparatively small minority. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 1:28 AM by David Adesnik  

UPDATE YOUR LINKS: Blogger-ventriloquist Joe Gandelman has moved his site to Type Pad, so don't look for him on Blogspot anymore. Right now, Joe thinks things are looking pretty bad for the President:

Each day it seems like another group in the coalition that helped election him in the nail-biting election against Al Gore is dropping away.

What we seem to be seeing now is a slow but steady trend away from Bush, rather than to Kerry, who remains as exciting and palatable as a bowl of frozen chopped liver.

I hope Joe intended that chopped liver remark as a compliment, since a bowl of frozen chopped liver has the potential to become a delicious bowl of warm chopped liver. And if you've ever been to New York's 2nd Ave. Deli, you know how good chopped liver can be. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 10:06 PM by David Adesnik  

BIG MEDIA ROUND-UP: The WaPo's Dan Froomkin has an extremely comprehensive round-up of big media reactions to last night's speech. Somehow, the folks USA Today managed to write that "President Bush set out sweeping and impressive plans to bring stability and democracy to Iraq." On a similar note, the Chicago Tribune observes that

Bush laid out the path to that new Iraq. His speech capped a remarkable day that gave Americans the full measure of their president's determination to empower Iraqis.

But the real award for optimism goes to Ron Brownstein at the LA Times, who thinks that

President Bush offered Monday the most detailed explanation of his plan for moving Iraq from chaos to independence, increasing the pressure on his Democratic rival, Sen. John F. Kerry, to fill in an alternative vision for stabilizing the troubled country.

But if almost 60% of Americans believe that Bush has no plan for Iraq and that he is doing a bad job of handling the situation, why should Kerry feel any pressure? A more realistic take on the situation comes from John Podhoretz, who writes that

Bush is a high-stakes player, a political gambler. And last night he took a fantastically bold gamble: In the teeth of bad polls, an atmosphere of panic in his own party and the barely concealed glee of his rivals . . . he has decided to stand pat.

That assessment dovetails with both the opinion of David Brooks and yours truly. When Bush was running for President the first time around, he promised that he would govern on the basis of firm principles, not the latest numbers from the polls. That argument may not work this time around because now we know its true. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 9:30 PM by David Adesnik  

BLOGOSPHERE ROUND-UP: Andrew Sullivan and Kevin Drum agree that the most newsworthy aspect of the President's speech was his promise to grant Iraq full sovereignty on June 30. Andrew accepts the President's words at face value. Kevin, echoing OxBlog, thinks that the idea of full sovereignty on June 30 is a farce. Waxing cynical, Kevin writes that

Iraqis won't be fooled by [the promise of sovereignty], but for that reason they aren't going to be disappointed either. Americans, however, are going to be fooled by it, and that's all Bush cares about. A hundred million people are going to hear that we're handing over "full sovereignty," and maybe 1% of them will read or hear an explanation of why that's not true. So it's a win for Bush.

On a similar note, Matt Yglesias writes that "To the grossly ignorant American public, this sort of tripe can be extremely convincing." Matt thinks, however, that if Bush follows through on his plan to give a speech about Iraq every week, even our ignorant fellow Americans will see through it.

The problem with this kind of cynicism is that it flies directly in the face of numerous opinion polls, the most recent of which reports that 58% of Americans think that Bush has no clear plan for Iraq. The same 58% disapprove of how Bush is handling the situation in Iraq. Moreover, both numbers have risen over the past months.

As the WaPo points out, Bush's lower approval ratings, both for Iraq and for overall job performance, reflect the fact that even Republicans are losing faith in the President. So perhaps most Americans won't be able to explain the difference between full and limited sovereignty for Iraq. But Kevin and Matt should be celebrating the fact that even the President's partisans are beginning to take a Democratic view of Iraq's future. The only question in my mind is whether the Democratic view is actually democratic. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 6:57 PM by David Adesnik  

THE NUMBERS ALL GO TO ELEVEN: Is Spinal Tap running the New York Stock Exchange? (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 6:42 PM by David Adesnik  

COKE ADDICTS: Committed to bringing you the hottest celebrity news, OxBlog is proud to announce that Coca-Cola will launch its newest beverage, dubbed "C2", in a series of commercials broadcast during the final episodes of American Idol.

In case you haven't heard, C2 has half the carbs and half the calories of Coke Classic. Bascially, it's a soft drink for the Atkins diet. Will anyone buy it? I guess that really depends on how it tastes. I drink a lot of Diet Coke but would drink regular Coke any day if I weren't concerned about the calories. If C2 really tastes like the real thing, I'll give it a try.

But I'm not optimistic. All three of the recent Coke innovations: Vanilla Coke, Lemon Coke, and Lime Coke, were a waste of time. I tried them each for a few weeks and came to a pretty simple conclusion: If you want citrus-flavored cola, buy a frikkin' lemon at the grocery and put it in the soda yourself. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 6:17 PM by David Adesnik  

MADONNA CANCELS ISRAEL TOUR STOP: Death threats from unidentified Palestinian terrorists have forced the cancellation of three concerts planned for September in Tel Aviv. You can't really blame the Material Girl for backing out, since the terrorists specifically threatened her children.

In spite of the cancellation, I think it's extremely surprising that a top-flight international superstar would identify herself so publicly with the Jewish state. Moreover, Madonna had intended to mark the third anniversary of the September 11th attacks with a special televised concert in Tel Aviv.

So why hasn't Madonna bought into the anti-war, pro-Palestinian Hollywood consensus? I don't really know, but one has to wonder whether her intense attachment to the Jewish mystical tradition known as Kabbala has something to do with it. On the other hand, some (so-called) experts are suggesting that rabbinicial condemnations of Kabbala were responsible for the cancelled tour stop:

“Kabbalah, as it’s practiced by Madonna, is held in great scorn by rabbinical leaders in Israel,” says cult expert Rick Ross. “People in Israel are not reticent about expressing their religious beliefs. If you’re the number one missionary in the world for that form of Kabbalah — which Madonna is — a concert there could be, shall we say, messy."

That actually sounds pretty far-fetched to me. Tel Aviv is the personification of Israeli secularism, and a visit from Madonna hardly merits a commotion on the religious right. Now, if the Material Girl gave a concert in the Old City of Jerusalem, that might provoke a confrontation. But I just don't see busloads of blackhatted haredim descending on Tel Aviv in order to protest.

On a related note, I'm not sure what it means to "practice" Kabbala. I haven't studied it much, but at least in the mainstream, there is no such thing as Kabbalistic Judaism. For those of you familiar with the legend of the Golem, you may remember that the Maharal of Prague, the Golem's creator, was a practitioner of Kabbala. If Madonna has figured out how to animate lumbering giants made out of clay, then more power to her. In the meantime, I'm happy to let Madonna introduce Britney Spears, Posh Spice and David Beckham to the wonders of medieval Judaism.

UPDATE: Sasha Castel has a very informative post on the centuries-old Christian tradition of embracing Kabbala. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:37 AM by David Adesnik  

FIRST VERDICTS: In its straight news account of the President's speech, the WaPo reports that

Bush disclosed few new details of the scheduled June 30 handover of limited sovereignty to Iraqis, declining to name the Iraqis who will take power or to clearly define the future U.S. military presence in Iraq.

The article then reinforces that point by reporting that

Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.), the president's Democratic challenger, said in a statement that Bush "laid out general principles tonight, most of which we've heard before." He added: "What's most important now is to turn these words into action by offering presidential leadership to the nation and to the world."

Finally, for those who needs thing spelled out for them, the WaPo has a news analysis column entitled "A Speech Meant to Rally Public Support Doesn't Answer Key Questions".

Pretty much, Bush is getting what he deserves. The repackaging of the administration's strategy for Iraq as a five-point plan is hardly persuasive. Already, the NYT is putting scare quotes around the words "five-point plan", as if to warn that it may contain only four points or even just three. But from where I stand, the real problem is that the speech created false expectations about what the June 30th handover will accomplish. In the final analysis, that is much more dangerous than being vague.

On the other hand, the implicit suggestion that Bush should have unveiled a revolutionary and detailed plan for bringing stability to Iraq is somewhat absurd. It is the kind of suggestion that exists only in order to create impossible standards that cannot be met. The overall strategy for Iraq has been the same for quite some time now: hold things together until the Iraqis can elect their own government.

It might just work. Or, as the NYT readily suggests, it might just fail. Either way, it is a strategy, and a strategy that distinguishes the President from those such as John Kerry who have begun to suggest that the people of Iraq cannot expect the United States to give them freedom, but instead only stability.

As suggested below, the real news value of the President's speech is the way in which it solidified his commitment to stay the course in Iraq, come hell (falling approval ratings) or high water (more American casualties).

Although indirectly, this point sometimes comes across in the newspapers. For example, the WaPo's first graf describes Bush's commitment to promote democracy in Iraq as a "vow". Still, there is very little sense that Bush is holding fast to a risk-laden but idealistic strategy even as the November election approaches. Stubborn perhaps. Even foolish. But very idealistic.

UPDATE: David Brooks makes exactly the same point.

Also, the NYT editorial on the speech is now up. Can you guess what it wanted Bush to say about Iraq? The same as always, of course: drop the problem on someone else. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:56 PM by David Adesnik  

THE PRESIDENT'S SPEECH: It was an impressive performance. Or perhaps I should say an impressive text, since I only read it. But let's get to the criticism first. The praise can wait.

The purpose of this speech was to chart a course for the future of America in Iraq. As expected, Bush placed considerable emphasis on the June 30th handover date. Too much emphasis:

On June 30th, the Coalition Provisional Authority will cease to exist and will not be replaced. The occupation will end and Iraqis will govern their own affairs.

America's ambassador to Iraq, John Negroponte, will present his credentials to the new president of Iraq. Our embassy in Baghdad will have the same purpose as any other American embassy: to assure good relations with a sovereign nation.

The suggestion that a nation will govern itself with 150,000 foreign soldiers on its soil and without an elected government is simply not credible. While most critics emphasize the first of those two points, I think the latter is just as important. The fact is, interim governments don't truly govern. Their purpose is to dissolve themselves and pave the way for an elected, constitutional authority.

By raising expectation of what the June 30th handover will accomplish, Bush is only hurting himself. From what I can tell, few Iraqis expect much to change on that date. What I expect is an updating of the artificial consensus that produced the current Governing Council. Once again, the US -- this time along with the UN -- is trying to provide Iraq with a government that won't offend anyone.

But governments that don't offend anyone are governments that don't govern. Without the mandate provided by an election, no Iraqi government can make the controversial decisions that will have to be made during the process of reconstruction. And if Iraqis can't make those decisions, then Americans and UN officials will. That is why it is thoroughly disingenuous for Bush to describe Negroponte's post as just another embassy.

Now on to the good parts of the speech. First and foremost, I was overwhelmed by the President's unabashed Wilsonianism. Even Reagan's most idealistic speeches never went this far, either in terms of emphasis or specificity. On far too many occasions, Reagan embedded his democratic aspirations in vague formulas that had few practical implications.

In contrast, Bush has now lain out a very clear schedule for the transition to electoral democracy in Iraq. His remarks announced specific deadlines for elections to the constitutional assembly, for a referendum on the draft constitution and for general elections. He has invested his America's prestige -- and perhaps the survival of his administration -- in this process.

He is also investing American soldiers. With Bush's approval ratings in the midst of an extended plunge, critics have suggested that the President was getting ready to cut and run. But now he has explicity promised to hold the size of the occupation force steady at 138,000 or even increase it if necessary. While Bush held "the commanders" responsible for estimating that only 115,000 troops would be necessary at this point, he did admit that the American effort to create self-sufficient Iraqi security force has resuled in failures.

Finally, Abu Ghraib. It will be razed. To be sure, Bush refused to admit that the abuses there went beyond the actions of a "few American troops who dishonored our country and disregarded our values". Yet, in this instance, actions may ultimately speak louder than words. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 9:30 PM by David Adesnik  

DISTURBING: Human rights violations at Abu Ghraib have brought the perils of the American prison system back into the public spotlight. To some degree, this (re-)revelation of the horrors we tolerate at home detracts attention from the seriousness of what happened abroad.

However, I would argue that focusing more on the failures of the domestic prison and mental health systems provides a proper context for understanding how American soldiers committed such brutal and hypocritical acts at Abu Ghraib. Our domestic failures reproduce themselves abroad.

This fact in no way mitigates the guilt or responsibility of those who violated the human rights of Iraqi prisoners. It simply points to the fact that we may not be able to set the standards we want abroad until we commit ourselves to setting them at home as well. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 9:05 PM by David Adesnik  

BACK IN THE SADDLE AGAIN: I need a vacation to recover from my vacation. Bachelor party in Vegas. Drive to LA. Rehearsal dinner. Wedding mass. Wedding party. Flight back to Boston. Arabic final the next morning.

Although deprived of sleep, I am quite well-rested intellectually. I am actually excited to start working on my dissertation again. But I am a little apprehensive about blogging. Dissertation research behaves itself while you're away. When you come back, it is exactly where you left it.

But the blogosphere goes wild. How can I possibly catch up on hundreds of news articles and thousands of blog posts? How can I say anything without exposing myself to withering criticism from those who are now better informed than myself?

Yet strangely, I didn't feel at all disconnected from the world when I wasn't blogging. I threw an occasional glance at the headlines, but nothing seemed all that important. My life went on exactly as it had been going. No one I talked to seemed all that concerned about the news. What really mattered was that one of my closest friends ever, someone I lived with for four life-changing years, was entering into a life-long relationship with the woman he loves.

For someone who spends hours a day reading about, thinking about the news, this break served as an important reminder that very few of us inhabit the insulated reality known as the blogosphere. By the same token, it served as an important reminder that neither journalists nor politicians, no matter how important, play a prominent in the lives of most Americans.

One might argue that Americans should be more publicly-minded and better informed. But how much information is enough? At what point would the experts agree that American citizens know enough?

Of course, I am hardly the first one to consider the implications of such questions. Two hundred twenty-five years ago, the Founders sought to strike the right balance between creating a democracy and creating a republic. To what degree must elected representatives obey the will of the voters and to what degree must they act in what they believe to be the voters' best interests?

I have no new answers to these questions. I am simply glad that taking some time away from OxBlog enabled me to confront the real-life conditions that give rise to these eternal dilemmas. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:19 AM by Patrick Belton  

SURPRISE! So it looks as though Rachel's planned me a surprise birthday trip to my ancestral city of Dublin - I'm writing this from a kiosk at Gatwick, where she's whisked me away from Oxford's Gloucestr Green. I'll see all of you on Tuesday, and a year older - till then, slan agus dia dhuit! (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 8:00 AM by Patrick Belton  

OXBLOG'S AFGHANISTAN CORRESPONDENT goes on a diet with 1974 vintage weight watcher cards. (Joel, can't you at least come up with a version featuring the delights of Afghan cuisine?) (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 7:00 AM by Patrick Belton  

WELL, I HAVEN'T GOT ONE OF THOSE ANYWAY: Porsche owners are more likely to cheat on their spouses than the owner of any other genus of car, with 49 percent taking a spin in the wrong lane according to a survey. Want to boost your chances of marital fidelity? Try a trusty Vauxhall. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 6:50 AM by Patrick Belton  

INDIA WATCH: Outlook India speculates on what Indian national security policy will look like under Congress. Also, the Economic Times argues that Congress's election had more to do with astute alliance management than in increasing its vote share (which actually declined slightly from the 1999 elections). (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 10:49 AM by Patrick Belton  

SRI LANKA WATCH: OxBlog friend and Nathan Hale member Vikram Raghavan has just returned from Sri Lanka, where he formed part of a World Bank team to explore how best to go about the reconstruction of a country ravaged by two decades of civil war. He writes about his travels and thoughts there on his new blog. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 9:58 AM by Patrick Belton  

THINK TANK WATCH: Over at Rand, Bruce Hoffman considers the effect of killing Osama on the corporation succession plan of Al Qa'eda. Cheryl Bernard considers how the west might best assist reformers in the Islamic world without actually hindering their cause. OxBlog favourite John Lewis Gaddis speaks at CFR on surprise, security, and the American experience. DCIs Turner, Woolsey, and Webster talk about in which directions their alma mater agency should change in the future. Yale Law hosts a senior USAID official and two UN ambassadors to discuss whether nation-building is in fact possible. Brookings looks at labour standards in trade agreements and whether the market is moral, while CSIS looks at Afghanistan security, US options toward Pakistan, and security and migration across the US-Mexican border. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 9:47 AM by Patrick Belton  

GOVERNMENT TO BRITAIN: NIPPLES ARE FOR TABLOIDS, NOT FOR BREASTFEEDING - Brief shots which included the nipple of a breastfeeding mother were cut from an advert to encourage voting in upcoming elections for members of the European Parliament which will be shown in 2,200 British cinemas, on the orders of the Cinema Advertising Association.

Britain is the only country to require the deletion of the offending breastfeeding scene, which contravene long-standing British social standards that breasts are to be used to sell newspapers rather than feed young Britons. French censors are uncomfortable about a brief shot of a stern-looking female judge receiving a jury verdict. Ireland has reportedly decided not to screen the advert at all. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 4:57 AM by Patrick Belton  

PIGEON WARFARE: As most people know, Britain and the Forces Françaises Libres relied upon the services of trained homing pigeons to transmit messages across enemy lines. As is less known, British counterintelligence came to realise that the Axis nations also had their own pigeons relaying mesages to the continent from Blighty. So as BBC reports this morning, Britain established a falcon brigade to intercept enemy pidgeons. Other intelligence agencies considered, against the advice of MI5, the training of pigeons for suicide missions; much better to be a chicken, where your duties would merely consist (in another rejected British war plan) of sitting on a nuclear bomb. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 4:49 AM by Patrick Belton  

MORE ALEXANDRA KERRY: Apparently Alexandra was having a lovely evening before she ran into Michael Moore in the same dress. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 9:22 PM by Patrick Belton  

DEMOCRACY BRIEFER: I've written a quick democracy briefer over on Winds of Change, focusing on recently announced Palestinian local elections, the paring-down of the Greater Middle East Initiative, and elections in a number of countries making democratic transitions or consolidating after them. I won't say it's a must-read, because it's by .... me; but if you're the sort of person who'd be interested in this sort of thing, then this is the sort of thing that might interest you. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 5:06 PM by Patrick Belton  

ROBERT TAGORDA'S blogging at his best - you should definitely go pay him a visit. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 5:01 PM by Patrick Belton  

ONE DAY LATE, BUT, happy birthday, Matt! The three of us are always happy to have you out there as a very respected interlocutor, and we wish you many very happy returns of the day. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 4:06 PM by Patrick Belton  

OXBLOG'S ESTEEMED INDIA CORRESPONDENT ANTARA DATTA helps us continue our conversation about India's tumultuous elections:

Dear Patrick,
Two quick points about the post on india:

1. I'd be wary about the statistics indicating a drop in poverty. Poverty rates declined because the Indian government switched over to World Bank prescriptions to measuring poverty. In particular, this involved questioning people about their 'weekly consumption' rather than their 'monthly consumption'. Since the sampling method changed, rates too changed. I'd be more curious about the total number of people below the poverty line.

Also the definition of the poverty line in India is a hugely political question. Various definitions abound and were suggested by various committees set up by different governments in power, all determined to prove that poverty had declined during their tenure. So as I said, I'd be very wary of using data based on poverty lines in India- it's a political tinderbox!

This is not to say that poverty hasn't declined. And that things haven't gotten better under BJP rule. But we've also seen the highest suicide rate among farmers under them as well. So makes me wary again of making generalizations about how far their policies have benefitted the poor. As far as the upper middle classes are concerned, there is no doubt that we are certainly better off...but for the rest, perhaps this election was an indication that all is not well. Also, a lot of the reforms began under the Narasimha Rao led Congress government, and if we accept that it takes almost a decade for most reforms to bear fruit, it is a bit rich for the BJP to take credit, and then claim that the Congress would reverse these reforms!!

There is also a tendency in Western media coverage of Indian elections to think of the average voter as poor and illiterate. That they might be, but my experience of rural life in India, however limited, has shown that they are also incredibly politicized and know exactly what the crucial issues at stake are, so I would really respect the decision of the Andhra electorate as a good indication of what was happening within the country, especially in the agricultural sector.

The BJP called the elections six months early because they hoped that a good monsoon would benefit them. What they forgot was the unprecedented drought in north India last year, which they hadn't handled very well (despite the fact that we have fairly large quantities of foodgrains rotting in our warehouses). And after all, you can't really take credit for a good monsoon, can you?! I also find baffling the reactions of the stock market. If Sonia was going to be PM, Manmohan Singh was definitely going to be Finance Minister and would set the agenda on reforms. So how does his becoming PM alter the agenda so much, that the stocks make such a rapid recovery? I'm not sure what the stock brokers were really thinking. Also, it would be foolish to take the Left's statements very seriously. In my home state of Bengal, they've been vigorously trying to attract foreign investors, and besides, they are staying out of government anyway. So they can't really influence government policy all that much. I honestly suspect that on the important question of economic reform, not much will change at all. I also suspect that P. Chidambaram, a Harvard educated lawyer will be the next FM, and he's extremely pro-reform. So that should set some doubts at rest.

2. On Sonia:

It's a brilliant move from her. She's removed the last real 'issue' that the BJP could have used against her. She's made them look very silly (especially the Chief Minister who resigned yesterday morning to launch a campaign against her, only to find that she'd withdrawn). Now they really look like poor losers, and many of their supporters are quite dismayed by what they see as blatant political blackmail. In fact, from what I've been reading in the media for most of today, there is a reasonable groundswell of opinion lauding her act, and many former detractors are quite stunned at what is seen as an act of 'political sacrifice' quite unprecedented in Indian politics.

Part of the reason why the BJP were so taken aback is because most of them couldn't even imagine someone being offered PMship on a platter, and refusing it. So they expected Sonia to become PM, and this to be their main agenda for at least a while.

The other aspect is this: when the BJP says it's launching a 'nationwide agitation', it has ominous overtones. It means that they would have fomented trouble in the villages by targetting minorities. (also remember that Sonia is a Catholic, and the more extreme wing of the RSS has been saying for a while that if Sonia came to power, she would take her orders from the Vatican and so on...) If anything, the fear of what that would do, might have forced Sonia to make up her mind. Note she refers to maintaining the 'secular fabric' of the nation in her speech, which would otherwise seem odd, unless you read it in this context.

In the light of what I said in my last email, yes, I am indeed disappointed that in a way, the BJP's agenda has won the day. But I think, there is a silver lining to all this. And frankly if you vehemently oppose the BJP, like I do, I think this is the best possible thing that could have happened. And it's a really shrewd move from her. Makes me think that she's not as politically inept as most people think!

Anyway, I really ought to get back to revision!!

take care,
Antara

Thanks, Antara! (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:54 AM by Patrick Belton  

MA'AM, WE NEVER KNEW: OxBlog, officially one of the disadvantages of monarchy! (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:30 AM by Patrick Belton  

PAKISTAN DEMOCRACY WATCH: On Monday, and in a marked shift of tone if not policy, the United States demanded a transparent trial for a political prisoner in Pakistan and urged the Pakistani government to prepare for "fair multiparty elections" in 2007.

Javed Hashmi, a member of Parliament and leader of the opposition Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy, was arrested last fall on sedition charges and received a 23-year sentence in April for producing a letter in Parliament demonstrating the opposition on the part of many of the nation's senior generals to the military's continued interference in politics and support for a restoration of deomcracy. Hashmi's family and lawyer complained about a lack of transparency in his trial and that he was provided with inadequate access to counsel to prepare his defense.

UPI for more. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 10:16 AM by Patrick Belton  

TODAY'S READING MATERIAL ROUND-UP: Christopher Hitchens is responding to Seymour Hersh's New Yorker piece, and ends by noting

So a Sarin-infected device is exploded in Iraq, and across the border in Jordan the authorities say that nerve and gas weapons have been discovered for use against them by the followers of Zarqawi, who was in Baghdad well before the invasion. Where, one idly inquires, did these toys come from? No, it couldn't be. …

On India, the editor of the Hindu, currently a journalism fellow at the Kennedy School, calls Sonia's rejection of her proferred crown an 'ennobling moment for Indian democracy', even though another perspective might see in it an unwarranted legitimation of precisely the nativist claims the BJP was making against her during the campaign - which, in turn, do not ennoble Indian democracy, particularly. Also on India, TNR's Sunil Khilnani reviews Nehru's legacy of state secularism, and in the Wapo, Sebastian Mallaby points out that interpretations of the past election notwithstanding, the poorest of the poor in rural India area are actually doing rather better thanks to the last growth spurt:

People don't seem to have noticed that, whereas India's poverty rate stuck obstinately above 50 percent during the low-growth 1960s and 1970s, it is now falling precipitously: To 36 percent in the government's household survey of 1993-94; to 29 percent in the next survey, six years later. The idea that the countryside has not benefited is simply spurious. In the interval between the two most recent surveys, rural poverty fell from 37 percent to 30 percent.

A number of commentators take the opportunity of the fiftieth anniversary of Brown to comment on racial equality in today's America. The centrist DLC uses the anniversary to endorse the No Child Left Behind Act, while the San Francisco Chronicle tells the story of black schoolchildren who were the first to enter previously segregated schools.

Elsewhere, Slate's William Salletan introduces 'Kerryisms', triumphantly proclaiming 'This one can't talk, either!' The NYT Book Review looks at books on China, books on integration, and Somalia. The New York Review of Books looks at Saul Bellow and Osama. In the Prospect, Lord Falconer and friends discuss Labour's constitutional reforms. And The Onion takes a trip to my beloved Dearborn, Michigan. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 6:49 AM by Patrick Belton  

LEWIS ON ISLAMIC DEMOCRACY: Bernard Lewis, an impeccable scholar whose deep respect for his region of study makes him able to speak of democratic reform in the Muslim world without that stench of Islamophobia often infecting the opinion pages, has a lengthy interview in the Atlantic Unbound today on anti-tyrannical and contractual elements in the Islamic political tradition:

What about democracy? How compatible is it with Islamic law and custom?

Well, there are certain elements in Islamic law and tradition which I think are conducive to democracy. The idea that government is contractual and consensual, for one thing. According to the Islamic Treatise on Holy Law, the ruler comes to power by an agreement between the ruler and his subjects. This is bilateral. Both sides have obligations. It is also limited. The ruler rules under the Holy Law, which he cannot change and which he must obey. So these two elements, I think, of consent and contract, also have the element of limitation, and can be very conducive to the development of democratic institutions. There is also a deeply rooted rejection in traditional Islamic writing of despotism or dictatorship, of the capricious rule of the ruler without due regard to the law and to the opinion of the various groups in society.

What do you make of the thesis that Islam is another version of the anti-liberal, anti-modern dogmas of the twentieth century? Some pundits have been using the term "Islamo-fascism" to describe the ideology of bin Laden and his ilk. Do you think that the militant form of Islam stems more from recent utopian movements than from Islamic tradition?

No, I don't. There is an Islamic saying, "The first to reason by analogy was the devil." Certainly there is a Fascist element in the Islamic world, but it's not in the religious fundamentalists. It's rather in people like Saddam Hussein and his regime and the Syrian regime. These were directly based on the Fascist regimes. We can date it with precision: in 1940, the French government capitulated and a collaborationist regime was established in Vichy. The rulers of the French colonial empire had to decide whether they would stay with Vichy, or rally to De Gaulle. And they made various decisions. Syria and Lebanon were at that time under French mandate, and these French officials stayed with Vichy, so Syria and Lebanon became a center of Axis propaganda in the Middle East. That was when real Fascist ideas began to penetrate. There were many translations and adaptations of Nazi material into Arabic. The Ba'ath party, which dates from a little after that period, came in as a sort of Middle Eastern clone of the Nazi party and, a little later, the Communist party.

But that has nothing to do with Islam. The Islamists' approach is quite different from that and has its roots in the history of Islam. Though, of course, it is also influenced by outside ideas. I would not call it Fascist. I would say it is certainly authoritarian and shares the hostilities of the Fascists rather than their doctrines.

On Iran: For example, what they have now in Iran, for the first time, is a theocracy—a country which is actually run by the professional men of religion. This is totally unknown in the Islamic past. They now have the functional equivalent of a Pope, Cardinals, and Bishops, and above all, an inquisition that punishes heretics. One hopes that they may in due course have a reformation.

On secularism: The word secular is a Western term. It has only recently been imported into the Middle East. The idea of Church and State as two distinct institutions which can be either joined or separated is a Western and more specifically a Christian idea. In the past, if you talked to Muslims about separation of Church and State the usual answer you'd get was, "Oh, this is a Christian remedy for a Christian disease"—and therefore of no relevance to them. Now I think that they are beginning to realize that perhaps they have contracted the Christian disease and that it might be a good idea to try the Christian remedy.

On western media coverage: when I listen to the broadcasts from the media people who are in Iraq at the present time, they almost always mispronounce the names of Iraqi towns. One town which has been very much in the news is spelled in Latin letters N-a-j-a-f, and I hear one announcer or newsreader after another, even those who are calling from over there, say Na-jaf' (emphasis on the second syllable). Well it isn't Na-jaf', it's Na'jaf (emphasis on the first syllable). Anyone who's ever heard an Iraqi pronounce the name will know that. The fact that this sort of name is systematically mispronounced is really alarming. One wonders who they've been talking to.

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# Posted 6:24 AM by Patrick Belton  

INDIA ROUND-UP: Time will tell whether crashing markets or eleventh-hour concerns about her background (which received full flushing-out by the BJP during the campaign, to no great consequence) played the greater role in Sonia's decision to step aside. Joe Gandelman praises the high-minded selflessness with which Sonia declined the prime ministership, but if she in the end accepts the position the more dramatically inclined of our readers might find themselves thinking of Richard III instead.

Prime Minister-presumptive Manmohan Singh is profiled by CNN, Kerala News, Guardian. He is by self-definition an apolitical technocrat, an academic with unimpeachable research credentials, and an economist seasoned by government experience whose selection has quite literally caused India's stock instantly to rise. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 5:53 AM by Patrick Belton  

AND WHO SAYS LOS ANGELENOS DON'T APPRECIATE CLASSICAL MUSIC: History of the 'General Kyd' 'cello, one of roughly 60 made by Straviarius (and metaphorical exegeses noting the implications of this story for the cultural descent from the Enlightenment to mass popular culture are not welcome.....):

* made, 1684, in Cremona, Italy
* acquires its current name at end of 18th c. from British general who brings it to England from Italy
* purchased, Los Angeles Philarmonic Association, c. 1975
* left outside 'cellist Peter Stumpf's home by accident, April 25
* picked up by bicyclist, then dropped off roughly one mile away
* discovered by nurse Melanie Stevens, 29
* Stevens asks cabinetmaker boyfriend to convert the Stradivarius into a CD holder
* cello saved from an eternity as a CD holder on May 7th when Ms Stevens, an assiduous viewer of television, notices a news report about the Stradivarius, and returns it.

And who says L.A. residents don't appreciate the arts. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 1:35 PM by Patrick Belton  

SONIA STEPS ASIDE: Amid speculation she acted out of deference to her children's wishes and out of threats made against her for being born overseas, she has indicated that she is backing Manmohan Singh (whose prime ministerial prospects we took note of last Tuesday). (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:55 AM by David Adesnik  

OH, RATS! I'm headed to California for my college roommate's wedding, so no posting from this OxBlogger until next week.

PS It is my birthday on Wednesday. In lieu of gifts, please make a donation to the David Adesnik Legal Defense Fund. Remember to specify criminal or civil on your cheque.

PPS It is Matt Yglesias' birthday on Tuesday. He doesn't yet have a legal defense fund, but you can find a good cause to donate to here. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 8:16 PM by Patrick Belton  

AND YOU THOUGHT BRITAIN WAS BAD: The alcohol consumption rate in Australia's Northern Territory is an estimated 1,120 standard drinks, per person, per year (2001). (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 7:07 PM by Patrick Belton  

OXBLOG GIRL CORRESPONDENT Rachel says that in the now-famous picture of Alexandra Kerry from Cannes sporting what in America would be called a 'wardrobe malfunction', Ms Kerry may have been simply subjected to an unfortunate lighting moment:

In some types of lighting, clothes that one imagines to be opaque are exposed as unfortunately and surprisingly translucent. The hypothesis is grounded in the fact that her underwear does not appear to be of a type that one would intentionally wear-to-show. If Kerry knew her panties were to be on public view, one would hope she would choose a more interesting type.

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# Posted 3:47 PM by Patrick Belton  

IRAQ BRIEFER: Just since tactical-level reporting from Iraq is not always what we'd like it to be, I'd like to provide here General Kimmitt's situation briefer from this morning and the ensuing question session with reporters, just in case it might interest any of our readers. The devil is in the details, after all:

GEN. KIMMITT:  Good afternoon.

            The coalition continues offensive operations to ensure a stable Iraq in order to repair infrastructure, stimulate the economy and transfer sovereignty.  To that end, in the past 24 hours the coalition conducted 2,000 patrols, 26 offensive operations, 46 Air Force and Navy sorties, and captured 57 anti-coalition suspects.

            In the northern area of operations, 47 police officers from Najaf began a weeklong advanced skills training program at the Irbil police academy.  This training will enhance their capabilities and provide officers from both regions the opportunity to build better relationships and share effective tactics, techniques and procedures.

            In Baghdad, at 0955 this morning a suicide car bomb exploded near a coalition checkpoint in central Baghdad, killing seven civilians, to include the current Governing Council president, Mr. Izzedine Salim. Five civilians and two soldiers were wounded in this attack.  A quick reaction force and medical personnel were on the scene within minutes of the attack, along with Iraqi emergency responders and Iraqi Civil Defense Corps members.  Coalition military forces join in denouncing this horrible crime and ask Iraqi citizens to contact telephone number 778-4076 with information leading to the arrest of any attackers.

            The Iraqi Survey Group confirmed today that a 155-millimeter artillery round containing sarin nerve agent had been found.  The round had been rigged as an IED, which was discovered by a U.S. force convoy.  A detonation occurred before the IED could be rendered inoperable.  This produced a very small dispersal of agent.  The round was an old binary type requiring the mixing of two chemical components in separate sections of the cell before the deadly agent is produced. The cell is designed to work after being fired from an artillery piece.  Mixing and dispersal of the agent from such a projectile as an IED is very limited.  The former regime had declared all such rounds destroyed before the 1991 Gulf War.  Two explosive ordnance team members were minor exposure to nerve agent as a result of the partial detonation of the round.

            In the western zone of operations, the situation in Al Anbar remains stable.  The reduction of hostilities in Fallujah has seemingly had a calming effect across the area.  Yesterday coalition forces hosted 43 government, religious, medical and ICDC leaders at the Camp Ramadi detention facility and 17 leaders at the Habbaniya facility.  The visit was well received, with positive feedback from the local leaders.  There was also one prisoner released to a sheik as a goodwill gesture.

            Coalition forces met with the Fallujah Brigade leadership today and continue to plan with the brigade for future joint patrols in Fallujah.  There were no violations of the cease-fire agreement, but neither were there any weapons turned in during this period.

            In the central-south zone of operations, coalition forces defending the buildings near the Mukhaiyam Mosque in Karbala continued to be attacked with sniper, RPG and mortar fire.  There were numerous engagements last night originating from the Iranian quarter in the downtown area of Karbala near the two holy shrines.

            Polish multinational division reports Muqtada militia elements are staying close to the shrine of al-Imam al-Hussein, as they are aware of concerns that the shrines not be damaged.  Sounds of fighting in the downtown area could be heard for much of the night and the Polish forces estimate 17 Muqtada militia killed in the vicinity of the shrine's area; 13 killed in other areas.

            This morning coalition forces near the Mukhaiyam mosque were attacked with two rocket-propelled grenades and small-arms fire. Multinational Division Central South reports that Muqtada militia has occupied the second floor of the al-Imam al-Hussein shrine in downtown Karbala and is directing sniper fire from the western wall of the shrine on to coalition forces at the al-Mukhaiyam mosque.

            Muqtada's militia is also firing on them from the streets and buildings of the Iranian quarter across from the al-Mukhaiyam.  Phone calls from private citizens to the CPA elements in Karbala are also overwhelmingly supportive of continuing to fight Muqtada militia.

            People from the Iranian quarter neighborhood are phoning to complain that coalition forces are not attacking Muqtada militia who have moved into their neighborhood.  They say there are no religious sites in their neighborhood and they want Muqtada's militias out of their home.
 
           In Najaf there have been three attacks this morning on Iraqi police stations.  The enemy used a combination of mortars, rocket- propelled grenades and small-arms fire during each of these attacks. Coalition forces assessed these attacks as harassment and hit-and-run as the enemy has immediately broken contact and efforts to regain contact have not been successful.  A coalition quick-reaction force was dispatched to assist in defending the police stations.  One enemy was killed from these attacks and coalition forces continue to assist in the defense of these police stations in an Najaf.

            In the southeastern zone of operations, enemy forces continued to engage coalition forces in Nasiriyah.  From 21:00 until 01:00 last night, the CPA building was attacked on three separate occasions. Camp Libeccio, the coalition and Iraqi police liaison building in the center of town, was attacked on four occasions and these attacks led to a withdrawal from the building to a more protected site.  One coalition soldier was killed and seven were wounded from these attacks.  A coalition fixed-wing aircraft engaged five targets this morning. The targets were five vehicles that had been observed loading and unloading ordnance.  And we estimate 20 enemy forces were killed during these strikes.  Within Nasiriyah, coalition forces are continuing to patrol the city.

Q: some IGC members have expressed that they are blaming the coalition for not providing enough protection for them and, obviously, for Mr. Salim, and that was the result of why he was targeted today -- was a successful target.  What could you guys respond to that?

 A: (Mr Senor):  Well, first of all, I'd say it's a very difficult time for everybody, and we understand that there are a lot of high emotions.

            As for security that we provide, since the Governing Council has been formed, the coalition provides financial assistance for security, we provide body armor, weapons for personal security details, vehicles, in some cases armored vehicles.  We offer close protection service training -- six-week courses back to back.  That's approximately 200 individual personal security members of various GC members have gone through the courses.  We offer a refresher course for these PSDs.  Approximately 40 personal security service members from various GCs -- for various Governing Council personal security details have gone through the program.

            Mr. Salim's security detail consists primarily of family members, which is the case with a number of the GC security details.  He's chosen to rely on cousins and nephews, which was his choice.  And unfortunately, our records show that none of his personal security detail members ever participated in any of our training programs. Again, his choice.  We make the resources available, we make the training available, but it's up to the individual GC members and the security details if they want to participate in it.

           Clearly, their security is a very high priority for us, and that's why we provide the funding, that's why we provide the body armor, that's why we provide the weapons, and that's why we provide this training.

Q, Sewell Chan from The Washington Post.  A question for General Kimmitt.  Sir, the Army right now is facing a continued insurgency in much of southern Iraq; obviously a lot of activity in the holy cities of Najaf and Karbala, and also this attempt at a takeover, the city of Nasiriyah.  And now we're hearing that soldiers who are stationed in South Korea might be called into Iraq.  Is the Army stretched thin?  Are there enough resources here to deal with this continuing insurgency as we lead up to June 30th?  Could you comment on that issue?

GEN. KIMMITT:  Let me take the second point, then the third point, then the first point.

            Number one, these fights that we are having against Mugtada militia are not stretching us thin at all.  They are pretty much street thugs with weapons.  They don't present much of a military threat.  They're a nuisance.  They're a harassment.  And sadly, as you can imagine with street thugs with weapons, sometimes they kill and wound our soldiers.  But in engagement after engagement, they have not been able to stand and fight.  They're incapable of acting and responding as a disciplined force.

            And it's sad that they have taken to hiding within the holy sites for the Shi'a religion as their only capability to defend themselves because they know that we have one of two choices, which is to either attack them and risk provoking an outcome which would have strategic implications, or we can be a little more precise, reposition if necessary.  And of course, we've taken the latter.

            I don't know that we are repositioning any forces from South Korea to Iraq.  I've seen those reports.  I haven't heard it from DOD. Certainly we're looking at all our force stationing throughout the world, but I think that the decisions being made with regards to Korea are not being made because of the tactical situation on the ground here in Iraq.   That was a long-standing discussion that we've had with the Republic of South Korea.  That country is more than capable of providing for its own defense.  And Secretary Rumsfeld has said numerous times that we've got to look at a relevant force posture and relevant force positioning throughout the world.  But to suggest that the decisions driving our withdrawal from Korea is a more pressing need in Iraq is a stretch that I'm not willing to make and I don't think anybody else in DOD will make as well.

            To answer your final question, is the Army stretched thin, go back and ask DOD.  I think, again, Secretary Rumsfeld as recently as his visit out here the other day talked about trying to find more capacity within the existing force.  But these are the types of decisions that are being made in Washington, D.C.  I don't think that those decisions are being driven by Iraq, but I think it's a recognition of the entire global war on terrorism and the capability   for the military to be able to respond to that.  Thus far we've been able to respond to it quite well.

            Will it have a long-term effect on the Army if we continue this type of OPTEMPO for a period of years?  Personally, I can tell you, it probably will.  But I'm not an expert on force structure.

            The Army is certainly back there now, taking significant strides to revamp the force structure from 33 to 45 brigades.  But we're too busy fighting a war down here to be worried about those kind of things.  We remain absolutely confident that the Army is back there, in the States, thinking about the best way to man, train and equip the force that we're going to need to be able to continue a long-term operation, not only here in Iraq, but whatever threat that comes up.

Q, Charlie Mayer from NPR.  Do you have any idea at this point on who might have done this?

GEN. KIMMITT:  It would have been our first impression that this was classic Zarqawi network.  I understand about 10 minutes before I came in here that another group has popped up and is now, on the Internet, taking responsibility for this.  We don't know if that's a cover for Zarqawi network or if it's an actual organization.  But the fact remains this is the classic hallmarks of what we've seen on Zarqawi attacks: suicidal bomb, spectacular effect -- tried to go after a large number of civilians -- and also tried to go after a symbol, in this case two symbols; obviously -- clearly a high government official for the Governing Council as well as near a coalition checkpoint.  So all of those indicators -- suicidal, spectacular, symbolic -- line up here.  But we have this new group that has come in, and we don't know who this group is.  We'll have to do some analysis on it.
  (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:29 PM by Patrick Belton  

BOOK REVIEWS! GET YOUR BOOK REVIEWS! A very interesting and burgeoning corner of the internet (like wikipedia and Project Gutenberg), H-Net is a growing orbit of thriving academic listservs on almost every topic imaginable in the humanities and social sciences. In fact, we're planning on launching an H-Democracy through them to serve as a listserv to bring together scholars and practitioners in the democratization and democracy promotion community, just as soon as we can get their staff to write us back.

Anyway, one thing that's particularly nice about H-Net is that its listservs provides free and easily accessible reviews of academic books - these are usually thoughtful and knowledgeable, they cover all of the books released by the leading academic presses, and they're not noticeably different in quality than, say, most of the ones that appear in journals. And it's awfully useful to have one place where you could read reviews on new academic work on subjects as diverse as, say, the seventeenth-century House of Commons, liberalism in Georgian England, women in Congress, religious and secular perspectives on ethical pluralism, ancient Greek cavalry operations, reading, society, and politics in early modern England, medieval Islamic jurisprudence on legitimacy in leadership, pamphleteering in early modern Britain, the evolution of the White House press secretary, and many, many more.

So kudos to the good people at H-Net, and for all the rest of you, this is a site that's worth checking back every now and again. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 8:07 AM by Patrick Belton  

READING MATERIALS: Carnegie has a new Arab Reform Bulletin out, with pieces on upcoming Palestinian local elections, political reform prospects in Egypt and in Jordan, and more US revision of the Greater Middle East Initiative. Carnegie has also begun to publish these in Arabic, thereby making an already excellent resource even more excellent.

Also, one of our Deisi correspondents sends in www.allindianewspapers.com as a nice new portal collecting current stories from all major Indian newspapers in one spot. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 5:51 AM by Patrick Belton  

LATIN AMERICA WATCH: Our friends in Latin America, including Brazil correspondent Cisco Costa and a few other of our friends, tip us off with the conclusion of the expulsion of the NYT's bureau chief from the country for reporting on public concerns about Lula's alcoholism, a.k.a. Tipplegate, a.k.a. Winogate. Thus Cisco, our own Brazil bureau chief:

Larry Rohter, the NYT reporter that was to be expelled by the Brazilian government, wrote a document asking for reconsideration of the cancellation of his visa. Though he did not explicitly apologize, he said enough ("did not intend to offend the president", "the portuguese version of the text isn't faithful") that Lula could reverse his sorry decision without looking chicken. With this, the Workers' Party administration managed to back down from its counter-productive and brutish censorship and save some amount of face.

Rohter's text is reproduced here.

Xavier Botero appends this:

I'm not quite so sure myself that it was a "retraction," though it definitely was an apology, which, despite the shoddy journalism, was not necessary:

[Rohter] declares that he never had the intention of offending his honor the Most Excellent Mister President of the Republic, whom he has been able to interview on occasion, and he reaffirms his great affection for Brazil and his profound respect for Brazil's democratic institutions, including that of the Presidency of the Republic. In [Rohter's] opinion, the article limited itself to conveying commentary without presenting any value judgment on the part of [Rohter], who, regardless, reiterates that the text was not written to offend Mr. President, even if the repercussions and subsequent polemics on the reporting might have caused him embarrassment, which [Rohter] laments.

Is it a retraction? It doesn't seem to be. It's really just an apologetic note.

And of course, what Latin America Watch could be complete without reference to the blogosphere's resident Latin America expert, Randy Paul - who this week is handicapping Chile's upcoming presidential elections. With Chile's conservative parties self-destructing (with, bizarrely, each of their leaders accusing the other of participation in sadomasochistic sex rings, giving new political meaning to the term circle je), charismatic centrist defence minister Michelle Bachelet and foreign minster Soledad Alvear are emerging as the most attractive candidates. Either Dr Bachelet or Ms Alvear would, incidentally, be their country's first female president. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 4:24 AM by Patrick Belton  

IRAQI GOVERNING COUNCIL PRESIDENT IZZEDINE SALINE HAS BEEN ASSASSINATED, in a car bomb attack this morning in Baghdad.

Mr Salim, a Shi'a and leader of the moderate Daa'wa Islamic Party, was a writer, philosopher and political activist.

Foreign Secretary Jack Straw has called President Salim's assassination a terrorist act aimed at disrupting the transfer of power. Iraq's Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari responded to the assassination with the statement 'We will not be intimidated'.

UPDATE: By email, the statement of UK Special Representative David Richmond on the death of Iraqi Governing Council President Izzadin Salim:

“The assassination of Iraqi Governing Council President Izzadin Salim is an appalling crime. My thoughts and condolences are with Mr Salim’s family, and the families of others killed in today’s attack.

“I knew Mr Salim well, and I respected him enormously. He worked tirelessly in the best interests of Iraq and the Iraqi people. He made a huge contribution to the work of the Governing Council. He was a man of courage and a man of vision, whose moderate voice and gentle manner set an example to all of us. His loss will be keenly felt.

As the Foreign Secretary has said, the perpetrators of this terrible crime are enemies of the Iraqi people. The Iraqi people want a peaceful, democratic and free Iraq. We best honour Mr Salim’s life and work by renewing our efforts to achieve this goal.”

 

ALSO, the Iraqi Governing Council has announced that it has selected Ghazi Mashal Ajil al-Yawer, a Sunni Muslim civil engineer from the northern city of Mosul, to replace Saleem. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 2:03 PM by Patrick Belton  

THIS on the other hand - the UK's virtual online church - is rather neat. Not only does it receive official sanction from the hierarchy - the Rt Rev Richard Chartres, Bishop of London, presented its maiden sermon last week - but, perhaps in a concession to evangelicals, occasionally an officiating cleric will be raptured directly from within its virtual 3-d walls:

Minister 'raptured' at opening service

Church of Fools got off to a flying start on Tuesday May 11th, until a computer crashed somewhere in York, England. At the computer was Revd Jem Clines, who was logged in to the church as its minister. His onscreen character, wearing a dark suit and a dog collar, turned to face the sanctuary wall and then simply disappeared, as Revd Clines' computer died some 225 miles away.

(1) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 7:33 AM by Patrick Belton  

LATIN AMERICA WATCH: Leading members of the two leading conservative parties in Chile, National Renewal and the Independent Democratic Union, have each accused the other of: taking part in a sado-masochistic sex ring (via Economist). (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 6:59 AM by Patrick Belton  

FOREIGN SERVICE WATCH: State Department dropout John Brady Kiesling follows up on his inglorious debut article in the WaPo (argument: North Vietnam bravely defeated the US then became an outstanding member of the international community and UN; therefore, we should let an Iraqi despot do the same) with an interview in which he says 'Iran should be our best ally -- they desperately want in Iraq most of the same things we desperately want (hands up, who here wants weakness and theocracy? you there, in the corner? oh, okay you were just stretching...), and the price they will ask -- no permanent U.S. military presence in Iraq -- is something we'll end up paying whether we work with the Iranians or not. ' (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 5:26 AM by Patrick Belton  

THE DUMBING-DOWN OF NETWORK NEWS: RatherBiased.com takes a look at the profusion of cheap ploys for viewership ('toys that are dangerous to your child' stories and similar ratings staples) over serious reporting. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 2:38 AM by David Adesnik  

ABU GHRAIB VS. NICK BERG: Glenn Reynolds has a long post up on how the mainstream media are paying far more attention to Abu Ghraib despite the fact that the American public has shown a much greater interest in the beheading of Nick Berg.

For Glenn, this constitutes evidence that the media has an anti-Bush agenda and will gradually lose its audience share to more reader-responsive sources of information. I strongly disagree.

There is no question that the media has made a subjective judgment that Abu Ghraib is far more important than the beheading of Nick Berg. But that is a judgment that I strongly endorse and for reasons that should be very familiar to conservatives.

We have known for a long time now that Al Qaeda has no shame and no respect for human life. No matter how gruesome, the beheading of Nick Berg did little more than confirm that fact.

In contrast, the events at Abu Ghraib have severely tarnished America's reputation as the foremost defender of democracy and human rights. In order to restore that reputation, we must ruthlessly pursue justice and punish those responsible for the abuses in order to ensure that this never happens again

American power rests just as much on its reputation as it does on its military and economic might. If we want to continue to use that power to promote American values, then we must restore our reputation.

Historically speaking, American journalists have long believed that they have the right to make judgments on their readers' behalf. There is no question that journalists have often misused this power of judgment.

Yet those who criticize the emphasis of Abu Ghraib at the expense of Nick Berg should remember that the New York Times and Washington Post provide extensive coverage of foreign affairs only because of their subjective judgment that such news is important.

If the leading newspapers and television networks responded exclusively to audience demands, domestic news would quickly displace almost all foreign coverage. And in time, entertainment, weather and sports would displace news about domestic politics.

Again speaking historically, American journalists are most willing to exercise their judgment when American behavior contradicts American principles. That is exactly what happened at Abu Ghraib. I do not doubt for a second that such abuses would receive just as much attention if there were a Democrat in the White House.

The exercise of judgment is an integral but often unacknowledged part of journalism. In this instance, that judgment is absolutely right.

(0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 1:49 AM by David Adesnik  

OXBLOG TAKES A COURAGEOUS STAND: I have been thinking about this for some time now. Since four o'clock this afternoon to be exact. And I have come up with an answer: Ashley is definitely the hotter Olsen twin.

This important truth began to dawn on we while watching the E! special on the Olsen twins. At first, I thought it was just the make up or the clothes. After all, they're identical, right?

Wrong. Mary Kate and Ashley are fraternal twins. Moreover, they each have very distinct personalities. It is only the ignorance of mainstream journalists that perpetuates the notion of their being the same.

For example, look at the different roles each of the twins played while hosting Saturday Night Live tonight. Whereas Mary Kate excels at the physical humor of a Chevy Chase or Dan Akroyd, Ashley prefers the biting and understated satire of a Bill Murray or Harold Ramis.

Alright, so I made that up. The only real difference between the twins is that Ashley dyes her hair blonde. And what ultimately matters most is that they will both turn eighteen at exactly the same time. (You can follow the countdown here.)

The Vegas oddsmakers are already taking bets on who will get there first. The odds on Justin Timberlake are 3-1, Kobe Bryant 4-1 and Bill Clinton 12-1. If you are looking a big pay day, you can put your money on a Bryant/Clinton four-way at 25-to-1 or a Bill Clinton double-down at 45-to-1.

Side bets are also being taken on which Middle Eastern state Clinton will bomb in order to divert attention from the affair. Top picks are Syria at 2-1, Saudi Arabia 5-1 and Israel 9-1. In the event of a Clinton double-down, a nuclear strike on Tel Aviv is considered imminent.

(1) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 8:34 PM by David Adesnik  

MAKING CHOMSKY PROUD: I have no idea how this op-ed made it into the WaPo, nor how its author managed to serve as a US diplomat for over 20 years. Matt Frost has more. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 2:05 PM by Patrick Belton  

AND WE HAVE A NEW PROFESSOR-ELECT OF POETRY: It's Christopher Ricks, the scholar known most recently for his work on Dylan. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 8:30 AM by Patrick Belton  

SLATE'S COMMENTATORS say Diane Kruger's face only succeeds in launching about three ships. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 7:23 AM by Patrick Belton  

FUNNY PARLIAMENT TRICKS: These via BBC,

• Members may not eat or drink in the chamber. One exception to this is the Chancellor, who may have an alcoholic drink while delivering the Budget statement.

• Members are not allowed to have their hands placed in their pockets; this offence was committed by Andrew Robathan MP (Con) on December 19th 1994.

• Speeches are not permitted simply to be read out during debate; notes, though, are permissible.

• Finally, members must take particular care not to die on the premises. This is because the Palace of Westminster is a royal palace in which commoners are simply not permitted to die. Any deaths on the premises are thus said to have taken place at St Thomas's Hospital - the nearest hospital to the palace.

(0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 3:42 AM by David Adesnik  

INTERVIEW WITH A LEGEND: The New York Observer talks to NYT correspondent John Burns. (Hat tip: Greg Djerejian) Lots of interesting stuff, but I especially liked the following:

"Things have progressed so much in my lifetime, that when I started as a foreign correspondent in difficult environments, you could spend half or three-quarters of the day finding a way to transmit what you’d written. Finding a cable. Finding the man who’s supposed to be operating the cable, who’s gone off for tea. All that time has come back to us in the form of productive reporting and writing time."

Also:

The Times bureau has a bulletin board where all the major Iraq stories from other papers are posted. "Every morning, first thing we do is read what The Washington Post has done," Mr. Burns said. "Anthony Shadid in particular, but all of them.

I wonder if they read the NYT, too. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 1:04 AM by David Adesnik  

MEMO TO FRANCE: STOP EMBARRASSING KERRY. We now know exactly what kind of response John Kerry will get when asks for French help in governing Iraq:

France's new foreign minister, Michel Barnier, [said] that France would never send troops to Iraq, not even as part of a peacekeeping force.

"It is out of the question," Mr. Barnier said in an interview published Thursday in Le Monde. "There will be no French soldiers in Iraq, not now and not later."

While one should probably blame (or credit) Bush for France's unwillingness to become involved, the fact is that Kerry can't go on insisting that he will get our allies to do more for the occupation.

On a related note, France has issued a set of demands that America must accept if it wants France to support a Security Council resolution on the June 30 transfer of power in Iraq. Perhaps the demands are just an initial negotiatiating position from which the French will compromise. Otherwise, they are simply ridiculous. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:43 AM by David Adesnik  

AGING ISRAELI FEMINIST ROCK STAR INSULTS MUSLIMS: That would be Gene "Chaim" Simmons, of course. (Via Gnu Hunter) Simmons' comments are sort of unfortunate, since he is one of the few celebrities who actually believes in promoting democracy in Iraq. Not long ago, Simmons told an interviewer that

The Iraqis for the first time in their history will decide what they want to do or not, whether there are U.S. troops there or not, and any transitional phase, whether it is Russia throwing off Communism, Germany coming out of Nazism, or Japan coming out of Emperor worship, has a 20 to 50-year transition, you know, giving birth is a painful experience...

I guess the guys in KISS were taking the right kind of drugs all those years. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:04 AM by David Adesnik  

WAS OXBLOG COMPLETELY WRONG? A couple of weeks ago, KH sent me an e-mail with the subject line "Tables Turned". The text of the message consisted entirely of a triumphant I-Told-You-So post I put up the day that Baghdad fell. It begins:

The time has come for those who had faith in American war plans to mock those who didn't. All I add is a note of caution, lest those who now mock become overconfident and leave themselves open to having the tables turned.

Right now, the NYT website is running a headline which says "Jubilant Iraqis Swarm the Streets of Capital; U.S. Says Hussein Has Lost Grip on Baghdad" That would seem to resolve the 'liberation' question. (And if the NYT isn't good enough for you, check out the Guardian for similar reports.)

So, KH is suggesting that the tables have in fact turned and that it is time for OxBlog to admit it. But I'm not so sure that I should. There is no question that the Ba'athist insurgency has proven more resilient than many of us -- including OxBlog -- expected. But is there any real evidence that it has much public support outside the Sunni Triangle? If anything, it seems to have alienated most Iraqis with its violent tactics.

Next come the Shi'ites. A few weeks ago, when Moqtada Sadr launched his rebellion, the NYT eagerly reported that this was the beginning of nationwide revolt that not only united the Shi'ite community but was bridging the Shi'ite-Sunni divide.

So much for that. Consider, for example, the extraordinary story in today's WaPo entitled "US Forces Attack Iraqi Holy City". It sounds like a classic mistake: showing contempt for Islam, losing hearts and minds, legitimizing Shi'ite radicals, etc.

But what do we hear from the residents of Najaf? At one point, three bullets hit the golden-domed shrine of Imam Ali.

"If it was done by the Americans, I don't think they did it intentionally," said Ali Awad, a 28-year-old Najaf resident, of the bullet holes. "If they wanted to destroy the shrine, they could destroy it. But they don't."

Unless Mr. Awad suffers from an extreme from of the Stockholm Syndrome, I'd have to say that his heart and mind are in the right place. Of course, it's not that America is so great or wonderful. It's the fact that most Shi'ites seem to accept Ayatollah Sistani's belief that the best thing for the Shi'ites to help America build a democratic Iraq so that it can withdraw its forces sooner rather than later.

But that's what winning hearts and minds is really about: persuading others that you share the same interests. Now, does Mr. Awad resent America for what happened at Abu Ghraib? I'd imagine so. If most Americans are outraged at what happened, how could an Iraqi not be? (Don't answer that question. There may a disturbing number of Shi'ites and Kurds who think that torturing Sunnis is exactly what America should be doing.)

Anyhow, the bottom line is that Mr. Awad and many Shi'ites like him seem to be just as committed to cooperating with the United States as they were when Baghdad first fell. Will Abu Ghraib change that? I don't know. If it did, the real tragedy would not be that Iraqis never saw Americans as their liberators, but that Iraqis once saw Americans as their liberators, only to lose faith in the United States because of its shameful conduct. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:12 PM by David Adesnik  

OIL AND DEMOCRACY: Not in Iraq. In Sao Tome. It's an interesting story and Bill Hobbs has been following it pretty closely, especially since the attempted coup last year against Sao Tome's elected government. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:04 PM by David Adesnik  

"NO CASH REWARD FOR THE OUTLAW FISH": How often do you read something like that in the newspaper? (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 9:20 AM by Patrick Belton  

HARVARD, IN A NUTSHELL:

Warm Ties not Cold Calls: Leveraging Your Network - May 17th 6-8 p.m.
Hogan & Hartson 555 13th Street, NW, Washington, DC - FREE for members!
Harvard alums in career transition should join us on Monday, May 17th for Joe Loughran's (MBA '83) presentation on how to optimize the use of networks to accelerate their transitions and advance their careers. Our personal, business and "extracurricular" contacts can make introductions that will pull out our resumes and provide access to their Hidden Job Market of opportunities never posted. Learn how you can enhance your ability to generate and capitalize on your hidden network  This event is FREE for club members and only $10 for non-members.  You may register online through Friday, May 14th at http://www.harvard-dc.org,/ or contact Executive Director Caren Pauley at (contact information).

(0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 8:27 AM by Patrick Belton  

BEST OPENING LINE OF AN AUTOBIOGRAPHY: 'I joined OSS after Army basic training. Held at Area A while a Full Field Investigation was conducted, I was assigned to the Reproduction Branch. When I saw my orders, my thought was: "Well, they do strange things in war, so I wondered whether I was intended to be used as a stud for some reason."' (credit Paul A. Fisher) (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 4:19 AM by Patrick Belton  

CENTCOM ANNOUNCES COURT MARTIAL PROCEEDINGS AGAINST THE FIRST US SOLDIER involved in the mistreatment of detainees in the Abu Ghraib prison, 37-year old reservist Staff Sgt. Ivan 'Chip' Frederick:

Lt. Gen. Thomas F. Metz, commanding general of III Corps, referred charges against Staff Sgt. Ivan Frederick II to a general court-martial on May 5.

Frederick is charged with conspiracy to maltreat subordinates (detainees); dereliction of duty for willfully failing to protect detainees from abuse, cruelty and maltreatment; maltreatment of detainees; assaulting detainees, and committing indecent acts. 

Article 32 hearings, similar to a civilian grand jury proceeding, were held April 2 and April 9-10.  The investigating officer found reasonable grounds exist that Frederick committed the offenses and recommended trial by general court-martial.

A date and place have not yet been set for the court-martial.  It is anticipated that Frederick will be arraigned on May 20. 

As perhaps the only cause for hope in the entire affair, it will be interesting at least to see how a swift and fair administration of justice and demonstration of accountability in the Abu Ghraib events will be received in the Middle East. Startlingly, in his journal (though it was admittedly begun after military investigators began looking into abuse claims), Frederick wrote that conditions in Abu Ghraib prison were not nearly as bad as in the Virginia state prison where he worked in civilian life. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 3:16 AM by Patrick Belton  

US RELEASING 300+ PRISONERS FROM ABU GHRAIB: BBC breaks the story. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:37 AM by David Adesnik  

THE GREAT BOOKS MEME: Someone, somewhere, came up with this list of great brooks and asked people to post on their websites, with the books they've actually read in boldface. Pejman and P&F have answered the call.

But I won't. Not because the books aren't great or because I'm embarrassed at how few of the books I've read. The real problem is that I read so many of these books in high school. While I may have benefited considerably from reading them as a student, I have only vague memories of them today.

More importantly, one ability's to appreciate great literature increases dramatically along with one's life experience. Thus, the real question isn't "Have you read this book?" but rather "How recently have you re-read this book?" Lists are fun, but it may be more productive to ask ourselves which works of art and literature have had a tangible impact on our lives.

UPDATE: Nitin over at HawkenBlog has some interesting thoughts on this subject. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:25 AM by David Adesnik  

BOOT SAYS GIVE HIM THE BOOT: Another conservative has turned against Rumsfeld. Max Boot writes:

What, then, is the case for Rumsfeld resigning? Simply that this scandal has caused devastating damage to America's moral standing in the world, and we need to recover fast. Apologizing ad nauseam isn't going to do it. Even court-martialing the perpetrators, though important, isn't enough. We need to regain the initiative as more nightmarish pictures emerge.

Having the Defense secretary resign might salvage some good out of this house of horrors by causing Arabs to ask why their governments tolerate torture and ours doesn't. If the resignation were coupled with other steps, such as moving up the date of Iraq's first election and beefing up U.S. forces, it might even help to put Iraq back on track.

Against this prospect, what are the arguments for keeping Rumsfeld? Dick Cheney's claim that "Don Rumsfeld is the best secretary of Defense the United States has ever had" doesn't pass the laugh test.

Robert Tagorda thinks that Boot's argument is solid, but that the moment for a Rumsfeld resignation has passed. Somehow, I suspect that there may be more such moments in the future. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:10 AM by David Adesnik  

THEY'RE CALLED FOOTNOTES: When you the exact same thing someone else said the day before, you're supposed to give them credit.

UPDATE: Meanwhile, the Washington Times is stealing from Rob Tagorda. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 10:54 PM by David Adesnik  

FIFTEEN MINUTES OF BRILLIANCE: As Kevin Drum said on NPR, the events at Abu Ghraib have made Phil Carter's website a must-read for anyone who wants first-rate insight into the news. I disagree. Phil Carter is always a must-read for those who want first-rate insight into the news. But now more than ever. I can't even recommend a specific post. Just go to Phil's site and start reading from the top. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 8:08 PM by Patrick Belton  

FIRST BRAD PITT, THEN: Thus Crooked Timber, always one of my favourite liberal blogs:

The release of the movie Troy prompts me to wonder again about why certain things are named after the Trojans. Take sports teams, for example, like the USC Trojans. Now, there is just one story cycle involving the Trojans and conflict, and in it the Trojans decisively, utterly lose. I’m not saying they’re losers, per se; I’m always rooting for the Trojans because I love Hector. But imagine a coach giving an inspirational speech along these lines: “Guys, I want to you get out there and fight with all your hearts, only to see all you hold dear destroyed. At the end of this bowl game, I want you to feel like the original Trojans did when the saw their ancestral altar run red with the blood of aged Priam, beheld the pitiful spectacle of little Astyanax’ body broken on the walls of Troy, and heard the lamentations of their daughters, mothers and wives as they were reduced to slavery in a foreign land.” It’s not exactly “win one for the Gipper”, is it?


And then, there are the condoms. What do you think of when you hear the word “Trojan”? Possibly, you think of the heartbreaking scene of farewell between Hector and Andromache, when little Astyanax is frightened by the nodding plumes of Hector’s helmet. But probably not. Probably, you think: Trojan horse. So consider the context. There’s this big…item outside your walled citadel, and you are unsure whether to let it inside. After hearing the pros and cons (and seeing some people eaten by snakes), you open the gates and drag the big old thing inside. Then, you get drunk. At the height of the party, hundreds of little guys come spilling out of the thing and sow destruction, breaking “Troy’s hallowed coronal”, as they say. Is this, all things considered, the ideal story for condom manufacturers to evoke? Just asking.

(0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 7:42 PM by Patrick Belton  

QUOTE OF THE DAY: 'There is an audience for these guys. We proved that. Most of America, frankly, is much smarter than television assumes they are.' Kelsey Grammer, commenting on the end of his prize-winning series 'Frasier' after 11 years. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 6:52 PM by Patrick Belton  

MORE ON BRAZIL'S DESCENT INTO AUTHORITANISMISM: We'd mentioned yesterday that, incredibly, Brazilian President Lula had expelled the NYT bureau chief for reporting on his alcoholism. The NYT follows up on the story, noting the initial public support for the decision is beginning to wane. Further, our correspondent in Rio (and the author of the Brazilian blog Filisteu), notes that the Supreme Court has granted the NYT's Larry Rohter habeas corpus, suspending his deportation and permitting him to question his expulsion in the courts. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 5:59 PM by Patrick Belton  

UNIVERSITY PROFESSOR OF POETRY: The Oxford Professorship of Poetry has been filled by, among others, Seamus Heaney, Paul Muldoon, Matthew Arnold, Robert Graves and WH Auden. I'm personally awfully grateful to the institution, as it's permitted me in the course of my four years here frequent opportunities to hear and often speak with a poet I've always esteemed as my favourite, Paul Muldoon. Rather unfortunately for us, come next Michaelmas he requires a successor, and any of our friends who already hold an Oxford degree and have been graduated can vote on Saturday, in Divinity School, from 11 to 4. Results are to be announced in Convocation House at 5. Rules are here.

The candidates are (alphabetically): Anne Carson (a Canadian currently at the University of Michigan), lighthearted Yorkshireman Ian McMillan, the prolific Australian native (a Londoner since 1951) Peter Porter, English expat in Boston (and frequent NYRB contributor) Christopher Ricks, and self-proclaimed 'stunt candidate' Mark Walker.

The Guardian, whose literary reportage is always quite good, goes to Ladbrokes and reports 'Following the close of nominations on Wednesday, Ladbrokes put the odds on Professor Ricks getting the job at 2/1, followed by Anne Carson (5/2), Peter Porter (4/1) Ian McMillan (5/1) and Mark Walker (5/1).' (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:07 AM by Patrick Belton  

A STATESMANLIKE MOVE FROM KERRY: In what strikes me as one of the wisest moves yet from his campaign, Senator Kerry announced his short list of candidates for Secretary of Defense yesterday on New York's Don Imus show. Two Republicans, Senators John McCain and John Warner, were included among the list of possibilities, as were Democrats Senator Carl Levin and former Secretary of Defense William Perry. Admirable choices all.

(My only other thought is that while announcing a short-list including respected Republican senators from across the aisle would be an extraordinary act of statesmanship from a president-elect, coming from a candidate it can't help but place Senators McCain and Warner in a rather awkward position - as they'd instantly come under pressure from their own party to demonstrate that they support its own candidate for reelection. They both, incidentally, also come from states with Democratic governors who would then appoint their replacements, but Kerry can't be begrudged having the interests of his party at least somewhat to heart.) (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 7:24 AM by Patrick Belton  

PLAYING WITH ADESNIK: Congratulations, David, on your radio play!

I was just in the process of trying to come up with a witty remark on the fact that David's last name had evolved to 'Odesnik' on the web page of the Boston NPR affiliate, when it struck me - heck, they're actually right! In the transition Odesnik (as in, 18 year old tennis legend Wayne Odesnik) -> Adesnik (as in the 26 year old blogging legend David Adesnik, or the equally legendary biophysicist Milton Adesnik whose age I won't mention as he occasionally lets me sleep on his sofa) to indicate 'someone who derives from the city of Odessa', we have a lovely example of the Russian reduction of unstressed orthographic /o/ to [a], which is a phenomenon that has intrigued linguists for a century and a half once they discovered that it occurs across languages. While on the one hand, Slavic languages and even individual dialects of Russian and Ukrainian differ considerably in how they make these assimilative and dissimilative vowel shifts, we can see, for instance, in English the reduction of intial /o/ in the transition from 'lobe' to 'lobotomy', where it is unstressed, or in Catalan and Portuguese, in the shift of quality of unstressed 'o' to /u/. So 'someone deriving from Odessa' would be spelled 'Odesnik' while pronounced [a]desnik, in the same way that eto and spasibo are pronounced et[a] and spasib[a].

Which is all to say that the folks at WBUR probably either have a wonderfully dry wit or wanted to take extra care yesterday to be orthographically correct. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 10:41 PM by David Adesnik  

KERRY ON THE AIRWAVES: While trying to find a transcript of Kerry's comments from today about Iraq, I came across the webpage with all of his recent commercials.

The biographical commercials are really impressive. My only question is: How much did the Yale admissions office have to pay him for the endorsement?

In contrast to the bio ads, Kerry's Iraq commercial is patently ridiculous. The Senator starts out strong by saying "Let me tell you exactly what I would do to change the situation in Iraq." Hey, I'm all ears. We need some new ideas for the occupation.

Then Kerry says: Have our allies send their troops to Iraq so not as many American soldiers have to die. I can just imagine Kerry on a conference call with Chirac and Schroeder some time in January 2005. "Jacques, Gerhard, could you send some of your boys to die in Iraq so that my poll ratings don't suffer? That's the least you owe me for getting rid of George Bush."

Anyhow, the good news for Kerry is that he sounds very presidential. He has a reputation for being wooden and stand-offish, but I think he comes across as both personable and thoughtful in his ads. He seems like someone you could trust. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 10:30 PM by David Adesnik  

WHY ISN'T KERRY SURGING? Pew's Andrew Kohut makes an interesting argument in a NYT op-ed. Like the current president, Jimmy Carter and George Bush Sr. also watched their approval ratings plummet in the first months of their re-election years. Yet both Carter and Bush I continued to lead their challengers in the polls until well into the summer. That's when it hit the fan.

Lesson: Voters don't immediately shift their support to the challenger when dissatisfied with the incumbent. But if their opinion of the incumbent doesn't change, switch they will. So is Kerry going to win in the fall? I don't know. Carter and Bush I couldn't do anything to fix the economy. But this time the election is about national security. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 10:24 PM by David Adesnik  

THIS IS WHERE I'M NOT: A tribute to the young men and women who've left the comforts of home to volunteer for the CPA. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 10:06 PM by David Adesnik  

IS THAT REALLY MY VOICE? GOD, I HOPE NOT: If you want to hear what I had to say on NPR, click here. For commentary, check out Matt Yglesias. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 10:01 PM by David Adesnik  

MORON:

"I'm probably not the only one up at this table that is more outraged by the outrage than we are by the treatment," [Sen. Inhofe (R-OK)] said. While saying a few "misguided" and "maybe even perverted" perpetrators of abuse needed to be punished, he suggested that much of the criticism was exaggerated and misplaced.

"These prisoners, they're murderers, they're terrorists, they're insurgents," he said. "Many of them probably have American blood on their hands. And here we're so concerned about the treatment of those individuals."

He went on: "I am also outraged that we have so many humanitarian do-gooders right now crawling all over these prisons, looking for human rights violations while our troops, our heros, are fighting and dying."

That's 'Idiotarian' with a capital 'I'.

UPDATE: DR writes that "I agree with Inhofe's statements 100%. You sir, are the moron." (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 8:58 PM by David Adesnik  

WATCH OUT FOR HEROES: Both the WaPo and NYT have posted unabashedly positive profiles of Maj. Gen. Antonio Taguba. In a scandal plagued with lies and incompetence, Taguba has emerged as one of the few individuals whose honesty and professionalism can be admired by all. By himself, Taguba has done more to restore the good name of the armed forces than all of the President's apologies combined. Without question, Taguba is a hero.

My concern, however, is that the comforting presence of such hero may prevent both politicians and journalists from fully exposing the personal and institutional failures that created Abu Ghraib. According to the WaPo account of Taguba's congressional testimony, the General

found no evidence the misconduct was based on orders from high-ranking officers or involved a deliberate policy to stretch legal limits on extracting information from detainees.

Instead, Maj. Gen. Antonio M. Taguba attributed the scandal to the willful actions of a small group of soldiers and to "a failure of leadership" and supervision by brigade and lower-level commanders.

While technically accurate, this description creates a false dichotomy between orders-from-above and initiative-from-below. Yet Taguba himself was careful to note that

he did not conduct his investigation any higher in the chain of command than General Karpinski, leaving open the possibility that responsibility for the failure in leadership went higher than General Karpinski.

According to Gen. Karpinski, she sparred constantly with May. Gen. Miller and Lt. Gen. Sanchez about how to run the prison system in Iraq. The involvement of officers as high-ranking as Miller and Sanchez means that the issues being discussed were important enough for the Secretary of Defense and his subordinates to be playing close attention. An exploration of their role is critical to this investigation.

The place to begin such an investigation is with the contradictions between the testimony of Gen. Taguba and Undersecretary of Defense Stephen Cambone. Until we reconcile their statements, we won't really know what American policy in Abu Ghraib was. While neither Rumsfeld nor his subordinates have been exceptionally forthcoming in response to public and congressional, I think the NYT gets things very wrong when it says that

The administration and its Republican allies appear to have settled on a way to deflect attention from the torture of prisoners at Abu Ghraib: accuse Democrats and the news media of overreacting, then pile all of the remaining responsibility onto officers in the battlefield, far away from President Bush and his political team.

Yes, Dick Cheney said that "Don Rumsfeld is the best secretary of defense the United States has ever had," and that "people ought to get off his case and let him do his job." But the administration's real strategy for dealing with this scandal is far more prosaic: distort the truth and hope that nobody is paying attention.

When President Bush first went on Arab television to denounce the human rights violations at Abu Ghraib, I had hoped that his response was the first step that this administration would take to correct its mistakes, not the last. But since then, the President has let Cheney, Rumsfeld & Co. evade responsibility. While I don't believe that Bush is complicit in this effort, his inability to recognize the ethical failures of his closest advisers is a sort of moral blindness all its own. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:57 AM by Patrick Belton  

NATIONAL SECURITY WATCH:

• One day after the United States announced sanctions on Damascus for its support of terrorism, Lebanese President Emile Lahoud, who is broadly regarded as a Syrian puppet, showed he had a sense of humour and said 'This is yet another proof that the U.S. administration is biased and reels under Israeli influence.’

• The U.S. Navy is considering slashing the American submarine fleet by nearly a third, from 55 to 37 vessels.

• Five-party talks have begun with North Korea, with Pyongyang making an opening foray for increased US aid in return for it freezing its nuclear programme.

(0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:41 AM by Patrick Belton  

JUST IN THE OFF CHANCE THAT THE EVENT doesn't attract much attention from the print media, sovereignty passed today from the CPA to Iraq's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This makes the Foreign Ministry the eighth Iraqi ministry to quietly, and successfully, assume autonomy in the hands of the Iraqi people.

These were Bremer's remarks on the occasion:

It is a great pleasure to be with you today.

Today we take an important step on Iraq's path to sovereignty, elections and a democratic government. In 50 days occupation ends and Iraqis will once again exercise sovereignty over the Land between the Two Rivers.

But Iraqi autonomy in foreign affairs begins today with control over the Ministry of Foreign Affairs formally passing to you, Mr. Minister.

Of course, as each of us here knows, this is a formality. Already for months the professionals of the Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs have been making their own decisions and acting upon them.

And those decisions and acts, Mr. Minister, have led to a remarkable record of achievement:

• You and your colleagues have spearheaded Iraq's reinstatement into the Arab League, the United Nations and the Organization of the Islamic Conference.
• You have reopened nearly fifty embassies and now offer effective and open consular services so that no Iraqi need fear seeking help and advice from his government.
• The visa policy you have developed will play an important part in excluding from Iraq those who would harm the national interest if admitted.

Mr. Minister, you and your highly skilled staff, working harmoniously with Senior Advisor Marc Sievers and his predecessors, have opened Iraq to the world, playing a critical role in ending the isolation Saddam both provoked and encouraged.

Mr. Minister, your description of the world that Iraq is re-entering as dangerous is apt, as is your recognition that the problems Iraq and so many others face are multi-faceted.

Your clear understanding of these challenges has proven invaluable in restructuring the Ministry of Foreign Affairs with the help of Ambassador Edward Glover to meet the needs of a modern democracy. Your long-range strategy for the ministry is sound and your emphasis on gathering a new generation of diplomats to represent Iraq to the world will serve your country for years to come.

We were speaking before of how impressive this auditorium is, but you know, Mr. Minister, that what really impresses about the Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs are not the spaces it occupies, but what you and your staff have accomplished.

On behalf of the Coalition, I congratulate you and each member of your team.

Mabruk al Iraq al Jadeed.
Aash al-Iraq!

Iraq's Foreign Minister is Hoshyar Zebari, a British-educated Kurd. The Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs may be accessed online here. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:36 AM by Patrick Belton  

CARNEGIE ON RUSSIAN DEMOCRACY: The Carnegie Endowment is hosting a panel discussion afternoon, which if you like you can follow online live and subsequently, on whether Russia a democracy, whether it will be in ten years, and how Putin's rise has influenced the course of democratic consolidation, or the lack thereof. The panel features Carnegie's Michael McFaul, AEI's Leon Aron, and CFR's Amb. Stephen Sestanovich. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 8:44 AM by Patrick Belton  

PRESS FREEDOMS IN BRAZIL: The government of Brazil announced yesterday that on President Lula's express wishes, it is expelling the New York Times bureau chief for reporting public knowledge of a drinking problem of the president. The original piece by Larry Rohter, which appeared in Sunday's Times, is here.

Next stop for Brazil: look for Lula to begin smoking large cigars. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 5:22 AM by Patrick Belton  

REQUIEM FOR A CHECHEN WARLORD: The always provocative Sobaka (which covers some of the world's more interesting regions and authoritarians with a style reminiscent of some of the better Parisian left-bank writing of the Satrean period) presents an obituary for recently killed Chechen President Akhmad Kadyrov.

It's still hard for me to see what's inside with Akhmad Kadyrov. Written two decades before anyone knew who the Chechen strongman assassinated yesterday in a monstrous bomb-blast was, Gabriel Garcia Marquez sculpted the perfect metaphor for it in Autumn of the Patriarch. Breaking into the presidential villa, the rebels find the old man's body caked in mold, and his body is found to be stuffed with flowers.

(0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:17 PM by David Adesnik  

NORTH VS. SOUTH: No many how many times I correct this post, Blogger won't update it. So, for the record, Jon Lauck teaches at South Dakota State. By the same token, Daschle & Thune are slugging it out for the right to represent South Dakota in the United States Senate. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 9:48 PM by David Adesnik  

THE USUAL DEMOCRATIC APPLAUSE LINES:

When there is no penalty for failure, failures proliferate. Leave aside the question of who or what failed before Sept. 11, 2001. But who lost his or her job because the president's 2003 State of the Union address gave currency to a fraud -- the story of Iraq's attempting to buy uranium in Niger? Or because the primary and only sufficient reason for waging preemptive war -- weapons of mass destruction -- was largely spurious? Or because postwar planning, from failure to anticipate the initial looting to today's insufficient force levels, has been botched? Failures are multiplying because of choices for which no one seems accountable.

But what do you say when those applause lines are coming from George Will? (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 6:27 PM by Patrick Belton  

INDIA'S ELECTIONS: The government was routed today in Andhra Pradesh, with its junior coalition partner Telugu Desam Party falling to Congress resurgent, and further disproving earlier predictions this year's polls would be 'technical elections' resulting in only minor coalition tinkering.

Vajpayee, who had confidently called elections six months early to take advantage of thawed relations with Islamabad, a booming economy, and good monsoon, has now told leaders of his party that he would rather go into opposition than lead an unstable coalition if his party and its allies failed to secure at least 250 seats in the 545-seat Lok.

Prospects of a hung parliament (no jokes from the peanut gallery, please) have caused the Indian stock market and rupee to plummet and have raised constitutional questions as to the president's prerogative ability to invite someone other than the head of the largest party to attempt to form a government.

It will, in any case, be a tight result, and Vajpayee's mastery of coalition crafting stands him even now in good stead to continue in office. If Congress, propelled by a reenergised new generation of the Gandhi-Nehru political lineage, is able to recapture power, Italian-born Sonia Gandhi has indicated she may step aside to permit erudite but politically untested former finance minister Manmohan Singh, D.Phil. (Oxon.), to serve as head of government in her place. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 4:43 PM by Patrick Belton  

VICTORIAN LITERATURE SCHOLAR Gertrude Himmelfarb (whose husband, Irving, and son, Bill Kristol, are also both scholars in their own rights), returns to give yet another Bradley lecture at AEI, this time on the British, American, and French Enlightenments.
(0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:23 AM by David Adesnik  

OXBLOG ON NPR: I just finished my call-in with The Connection on NPR. The show keeps going until 12pm, so check it out. George Packer is the main guest and Kevin Drum should be on soon.

I don't have any experience doing live radio or TV, so being on NPR was education. The first thing I learned was that you have a lot less time than you think. You have to know which your big points are and hammer them home.

I guess that sounds sort of cynical, huh? I'm on my way to being a scripted politician who just repeats the "line of the day" and tries desperately to stay on message.

Anyhow, I began by rambling incoherently but then began to hit my stride. The big point I hit was that the I-win-you-lose tone of blogs is no different from the tone of Maureen Dowd or Paul Krugman -- or of George Packer's column on blogs. We're just opinion journalists.

[Interruption: A caller just told George that his column reads like a bad blog post. He whines, talks about his personal life and blames other people for his problems. That's unfair to George, but it does hit at the same irony I was trying to point out.]

The final lesson I learned was that when you are in public, all of your dirty laundry gets aired. So, when Dick Gordon, the show's host, asked if blogs cross the line between public and private in inappropriate ways, George mentioned how, after the first time we met, I blogged our discussion without asking his permission. Dick then asked me if that was true. I said yes, and that's why I apologized to George after it happened.

I can't remember why, but Dick then asked George a second question about our meeting. I was glad, since it gave me a chance to say that I made an honest mistake rather than trying to take advantage of George.

Now, I guess if you asked me beforehand, would I want to have something stupid that I did six months ago become the subject of my first radio appearance, my answer would be no. But in retrospect, I'm glad that it happened. George forgave me for my mistake at the time, so there was no ill will. And I learned a valuable lesson. Be 100% honest. That is the only way to preserve your credibility.

UPDATE: Kevin Drum now has a long post up on the show as well, including a sly elbow in OxBlog's ribs. Admittedly, I earned it. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 10:21 AM by Patrick Belton  

TODAY'S NEWS ROUND-UP: The U.S. military's European Command has substantially increased its counterterror aid to African governments. The programme, going by the name of the Pan-Sahel Initiative, was begun with $7 million and focused on Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Chad; it is being expanded at present to include Senegal. Bush administration sanctions are forthcoming against Syria, to punish Damascus for aiding rebel groups in Iraq. And Sadr's prospects are declining, as Shi'a tribal leaders are negotiating his surrender to stand trial for his role in the murder of Sadr's rival Abdel-Majid al-Khoei - and as 1,000 residents of Najaf marched this morning to urge Sadr and his milita to leave their city. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 7:22 AM by Patrick Belton  

LANGUAGE CORNER: The exclamation point is believed to originate from the Latin word io, an exclamation of joy. (As in the English carol 'Ding Dong Merrily on High,' where it occurs in the verse 'And io, io, io / By priest and people be sungen.') It was formed either as a digraph of the letters i and o, or alternatively as the letter i (for io) above a full stop.

(- M. B. Parkes, Pause and Effect: An Introduction to the History of Punctuation in the West, University of California Press, February 1993)

UPDATE: 'It is not quite accurate to say that io is a Latin word, because it is simply a transliteration of Greek iw (where w=omega). It tends to occur in Latin poetry in context where the Greek origin is transparent (e.g. Catullus 61, an epithalamium). Iw is also the occasion for a splendid joke in [pseudo-] Aeschylus' Prometheus Bound 575ff--Io, transformed into a cow, laments her bovine status "iw, iw".' MC, University College, Oxford. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 5:55 AM by Patrick Belton  

TRANSFER OF SOVEREIGNTY WATCH: Dan Senor, CPA senior advisor, in a news conference several minutes ago:

[T]he following ministries have already been handed over for daily operational management to the Iraqi people:  Ministry of Education, Ministry of Municipalities and Public Works, Ministry of Science and Technology, Ministry of Culture, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Displacement and Migration, and today, the Ministry of Water Resources.

The following three ministries are scheduled to transition later this week:  the Ministry of Industry and Minerals, which is tomorrow; the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which is Wednesday; and the Ministry of Planning and Development, later this week, as well.  And we will continue to work every single week between now and June 30th to turn over additional ministries to the Iraqi leadership.

Also, in military operations watch, BGEN Mark Kimmitt made the following reports in this morning's briefing:

• Fallujah has gone over a week without a violation of the cease-fire agreement. [In the last day,] coalition and Iraqi security forces continued joint operations in check points around Fallujah.  Just after 10:00 this morning coalition forces conducted a joint patrol in Fallujah supported by the Fallujah Brigade.  With the 1st Battalion providing security along their route, Marines from the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force traveled into downtown Fallujah today to meet with city officials.  The commanding general of the 1st Marine Division, Major General Mattis, met with the mayor of Fallujah and a group of tribal sheiks to discuss plans to rebuild and revitalize the city.

• Two nights ago in the north-central zone of operations, coalition forces conducted a raid to disrupt anti-coalition forces near Baqubah. The targets of the raid were suspected of financing enemy forces in the area and the raid detained four targets, and all have been taken to a base camp for further questioning.

• In Baghdad, coalition forces conducted offensive operations last night in Sadr City, to reduce attacks and the overall presence of the Muqtada militia. Starting at 02:00 last evening, coalition forces conducted a cordon and search in conjunction with the destruction of the Sadr bureau building, to deny its future use by Muqtada militia members. Coalition forces observed numerous accounts of RPG fire from the alleyways directed at their elements as they approached the Sadr bureau and encountered numerous other engagements during the early morning. Forces cordoned off and searched the buildings to identify any militia present.  No one was present and coalition forces pulled back from the immediate area.  Coalition forces then initiated the destruction of the building.  Total roll-up over the last 24 hours from the numerous engagements in Sadr City resulted in 35 enemy killed, two enemy wounded and four coalition soldiers wounded who have been returned to duty.

• Yesterday evening an IED exploded in the vicinity of Four Seasons al-Arabiyah Hotel in eastern Baghdad.  The Iraqi police service secured the site and confirmed two British citizens and two Iraqi citizens were injured.

• The situation in Basra has seen a moderate level of anti-coalition activity with four reported attacks in the last 24 hours.  The enemy in Basra continues to use RPG and small-arms fire to attack coalition forces.

• Yesterday coalition forces conducted a raid north of Mahmudiyah to capture multiple targets, suspected members of a cell who are suspected of conducting attacks on coalition forces.  The unit captured four of the seven targets plus one additional suspected enemy.  Yesterday a coalition patrol conducted a reconnaissance of the industrial complex across from a coalition base camp near An Najaf to kill or capture Muqtada militia and to prevent that militia from conducting future attacks at the coalition base camp.  The unit came under fire by small arms and RPG, and the unit returned fire, killing three militia.  The unit also captured two suspected militia and confiscated numerous RPG rounds and a machine gun.

(0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 5:17 AM by Patrick Belton  

SALARY OF THE UK POET LAUREATE, ANDREW MOTION, author of 29 books, including Secret Narratives : £5,000

Salary of the UK football 'Chant Laureate', Birmingham City fan Jonny Hurst, author of a football chant to the tune of Barry Manilow's Copacabana about Aston Villa's Juan Pablo Angel: £10,000

Well, at least the country has got its priorities sorted out.... (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 4:20 AM by Patrick Belton  

EURASIA WATCH: If you're anything like us, you wake up asking, "I wonder what's new in Central Asia this morning?" Well, since you asked....:

• Times have never been so good for heroin producers in Afghanistan, who expect a bumper crop of 200,000 acres of poppies in late summer which will in turn produce three-quarters of the world's heroin. Regional instability and a major shot in the arm to international terrorists are the expected likely results. Tajikistan, whose entire industrial sector consists of a single aluminium smelting factory and whose national budget measures $300 million, is a prime candidate for destabilisation, standing as it does along a principal transhipment route, and with a history of recent civil war and ill-paid officials vulnerable to cooperation.

• Afghan President Hamid Karzai travels today to the western city of Herat, where he will attempt to convince warlord-turned (vaguely)-governor Ismail Khan to dismand his personal milita. Khan, in an interesting move of logic, has simultaneously (1) claimed his personal milita is indispensable to maintaining security because "there is no alternative army to replace them", and (2) mocked the presence of 1,500 national troops Karzai dispatched to Herat in March when the city was consumed by factional violence, saying they had nothing to do. Karzai is attempting to remove as many as possible of his nation's 60,000 irregular fighters in advance of September's national elections, to prevent their being used as means of intimidating voters.

• Also in Afghanistan, violence has escalated as an explosion destroyed a UN vehicle carrying election workers in Nangarhar province, about 10 kilometres south of Kabul (the election staff were able to escape unhurt before their jeep burned), and two Westerners, one carrying a Swiss passport, were found stoned (that is, killed by stoning, as opposed to the earlier note on poppies) in Kabul on Sunday.

• The US has delivered a shipment of military and border-control equipment worth a half million dollars to the Uzbek Defence Ministry. A second shipment of $600,000, to include night-vision goggles and other border-control equipment, will arrive soon. The transfers have taken place within the Department of State's Export Control and Related Border Security Assistance (EXBS) and Aviation and Interdiction Project (AIP), intended to increase border security in Central Asia, particularly as regards the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

• Betraying that he does, perhaps, indeed have a sense of humour, Uzbek President Islam Karimov berated his nation's political parties for not being independent enough. Karimov went on to say, in an article which was not taken from the Onion, 'Why don't you even say a word against each other?... The collision of ideas will certainly lead to justice and truth. If there is no struggle between ideas, then why do we need five parties?'

• And in other news from the region, new Georgian President Saakashvili is pursuing a strong anti-corruption policy which is winning praise at home but attracting criticism from human rights groups, who say too vigorous prosecution is weakening the rule of law. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:07 AM by David Adesnik  

RADIO FREE OXBLOG: Dick Gordon hosts a show called The Connection on NPR. The second half of tomorrow's show, from 11am to 12pm, will focus on blogs. According to The Connection's homepage,

Some say 2004 is the year of the Blog, those online journals that pepper political debate with a little news, and lots of opinion. Writer George Packer is not among them. He says blogs are bad, for you and for democracy.

I'm not sure George would go that far. But I might get the chance to ask him in person, since I am scheduled to be one of two call-in guests for the show. The other is Kevin Drum.

My connection to all this is that George Packer mentioned OxBlog in his moderately anti-blog column in Mother Jones. Then I posted a response to George's column, which you can find here. With any luck, things will work out and I'll be on the radio tomorrow morning. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:01 PM by David Adesnik  

GOOD NEWS ON A BAD NEWS DAY: Kevin Drum explains why, contra Patrick, Brad Pitt really is the best choice to play Achilles. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 10:51 PM by David Adesnik  

HERESY OF THE FAITHFUL: The Republican commentariat is turning on President Bush. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 9:38 PM by David Adesnik  

ABU GHRAIB AND THE FUTURE OF A DEMOCRATIC IRAQ: Right now is the calm before the storm. We know that the horrific abuse of Iraqi prisoners will derail American efforts to build a stable and democratic Iraq. We just don't know how.

What does it mean to lose hearts and minds? How will we know when the fallout from Abu Ghraib is undermining the American-led reconstruction? Will there be mass demonstrations across Iraq? Will there be nation-wide prison riots that provoke further American abuse? Will law and order break down in the few places where it now exists? And how can the United States prepare itself for the chaos to come?

Today's WaPo has some good suggestions about how, in the short-term, to demonstrate an American commitment to international law: raze Abu Ghraib, announce that the Geneva Conventions will apply to all detainees, and allow Iraqi and international monitors to visit the Coalition's prisons.

But what comes after damage control? In the absence of an implementation plan for the June 30 transition, it is almost impossible to know how Abu Ghraib will affect the handover. For a long moment, any proposal with an American imprint on it may become poisonous to Iraqi representatives. Thus, it is fortunate that there is a UN representative handling the process at the moment. Even so, any proposal the Americans support may become controversial for precisely that reason.

The real issue, however, is elections. First, can the United States hold out until January? Will Abu Ghraib add fuel to the fire of the Sadr and Ba'athist insurgencies? My guess is that will affect the former much less than the letter. Over at Needlenose, Swopa makes a pretty persuasive argument that Sistani and other influential Shi'ites are doing all that they can to crush the Sadrist rebellion. Thus, I don't expect the Shia rank-and-file to vent their anger at the Americans by supporting Sadr.

The fact that Sistani is doing so much of our work for us vis-a-vis Sadr reflects a fundamental truth of the occupation: that those who expect to gain the most from the elections will always be our best allies. The WaPo writes that

America's greatest strength in Iraq remains that its goals are not only right but shared by most Iraqis, by most people of goodwill in other democracies and by the leadership of the United Nations.

That point is very similar to the one I am making, but it ignores the fact that goodwill isn't worth much without institutional structures to express it. Sistani provides that sort of structure for Iraqi Shi'ites. The Kurdish political parties provide it for the Kurds. No one seems to be providing it for the Sunnis.

All the Sunnis have is an institution capable of expressing rage: the Ba'athist insurgency. Thus, I expect that the reaction to Abu Ghraib will be increased support for the insurgency within the Sunni triangle (assuming that such support hasn't already reached its theoretical maximum.)

While it may seem trivial to point out that our best allies are the ones who have the most to gain from elections, that idea has some very important implications. Above it all, it illustrates Robert Kagan's argument why it will be even harder to stabilize Iraq if we abandon our goal of promoting a democratic order. If we start looking for "responsible", "pro-Western" generals to run the show, we would have a real Shi'ite insurgency on our hands, not to mention a Kurdish secession.

In other words, the best advice I have is to just stay the course. It's not original. It's not insightful. But it is better than the irresponsible alternatives.

UPDATE: Kagan & Kristol offer a modified version of staying-the-course: move up elections to September. In other words, make the course shorter so that staying it isn't as hard. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 6:03 PM by Patrick Belton  

NEWS FLASH TO HISPANOS IN THE AUDIENCE: Slate's Jacob Weisberg seems to think it's 'ridiculous' that a former governor of Texas, who has a sister-in-law from Leon, Guanajuato, uses the term 'hispanos.' He might have googled. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 5:25 PM by Patrick Belton  

DIFFICULT DECISIONS: On the one hand, there's a movie coming out which adapts my personal favourite story, one indubitably among the greatest ever told.

On the other hand, it has the bad fortune to star an actor who: (1) Cosmo helpfully notes has 'killer B.O.', (2) who in 1988 was arrested and fined $450 for exposing himself to (unimpressed) drivers on the Pacific Coast Highway in Malibu, (3) whose pre-silver screen employment consisted of driving strippers to dates (theirs, not his), and (4) whose more recent public embarassments include 'The Mexican' and being taken down by Shania Twain. Yes, in other words, Brad Pitt as Achilles. Talk about a Hobson's choice.

(fr., incidentally, Tobias Hobson, c. 1544-1631, a Cambridge stable manager made famous by Milton and who insisted customers take the horse in the stall closest to the door or take none at all. Hence, a Hobson's choice was not a choice at all). (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 5:16 PM by Patrick Belton  

IN NY? LIKE CENTRAL ASIA? Then go hear the International Crisis Group's Osh director, David Lewis, speak at the Open Society Institute (400 West 59th Street, 3rd floor) on Wednesday, May 19, from 2:30 - 4:00 pm. I've had the happy privilege of being in touch with David on occasion, and he's a brilliant, nice fellow with a lot of folks in government who trust his opinion as a Central Asia hand. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 1:39 PM by David Adesnik  

AT WAR WITH RUMSFELD: The editors of the WaPo have been hammering home the same message day after day: That Donald Rumsfeld is personally responsible for creating a system of imprisonment whose excesses have been public knowledge for some time but about which the Secretary has done almost nothing. In light how strong a case the editors have made, it is extremely disturbing to see the President praise Rumsfeld so lavishly and declare that his performance has been "superb". (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 6:16 AM by Patrick Belton  

SILLY LANGUAGE TRICKS: One of the many things which make the world a generally interesting place to live in is its large number of in-group or secret languages, cants and cryptolects - many of which have existed for enormous stretches of time, and have popped up virtually intact after being transmitted from one very different group to another - and in the process, have often generated bits of slang which all of us would frequently recognise, even if it's occasionally a bit naff. Here are some examples, to get you started speaking incomprehensibly on your own:

• Verlan, a French banlieu slang which relies on constant inversion of syllables. The name is itself Verlan: Verlan is verlan for Lanver, or l'envers, the reverse. Some examples, to get you up and speaking Verlan for your next trip to the banlieux: tromé - métro; laisse béton - laisse tomber (drop or stop it); keum - mec (colloquial for man); meuf - femme (woman); reum - mère (mother); reup - père (father); keuf - flic (policeman; flic is coll. for cop); ouf - fou (crazy); zyva - vas-y (go for it); fais ièche - fais chier (slang for it's boring); céfran - français; relou - lourd (heavy, boring); zarbi - bizarre (strange); chanmé - méchant (wicked!, excellent!); chelou - louche (shady); keutru - truc (stuff). Where it gets even more interesting is that the generation of soixante-huitards, in university around 1968, adopted Verlan so broadly, and then rose to positions of prominence in the Establishment, that young, often Maghrebbian banlieu residents began to Verlan the Verlan. Doesn't that make, err, French, you ask? No, not precisely, because it changes a bit in each incarnation: c.f., reubeu - beur; beur is itself Verlan for arabe, making reubeu an instance of double-verlan. Here's a handy Verlan phrase book, for your next trip to Paris.

• Polari, which began as a cryptolect used in the nineteenth century by carnies and other entertainers, and in the 1950's became an in-group cant used by London fishmongers and later widely by male homosexuals (for whom a language incomprehensible to outsiders afforded a measure of protection against, say, plainclothes policemen, who may have been better received had they been wearing uniforms). It includes influences of the earlier medieval sailors' and merchants' lingua franca pidgin, who would presumably have gone to different parties. It's the origin of the term naff (not available for, erm, fornication; used broadly by the BBC's show Round the Horne in place of other expletives unavailable for broadcasting). Handy Polari phrase: "How bona to vada your ecaf!" - "How good to see your face!" For more, here and here.

• Shelta or Travellers' Cant, sometimes also called Gammon, a secret dialect of Irish spoken by the nomadic, itinerant Travelling people. It's still largely a secret language; anthropologists who have studied it have been asked by members of the Travelling community to withdraw their research from the public domain, and these have generally complied. Now it's more broadly documented, as members of the community come to fear it will die out: a few sources on their language are here and here. Prince Hal, in Henry IV, Part I, boasts he "can drink with any tinker in his own language." The Travellers were once roundly (and, as it turns, incorrectly) assumed to have lost their land during the Famine and never recovered it; and were until recently referred to by the now-pejorative "tinkers," to describe their pre-Industrial Revolution principal occupation of metallurgy, now replaced generally by mending and recycling. There are also Scottish Travellers, as the Travellers, well, they travel. There are other secretive cants, too: Thieves' Cant, as the name subtly hints, was used as a secret language by Victorian brigands, and is now helpfully documented for those wishing to to pursue a career in that promising field, and Eton now obligingly includes a glossary of (the tamer sorts of) public school cant.

Of course, some secret languages have managed to still remain truly secret. In fact, there's one which David, Josh, and I speak to proficiency, if not quite fluency. However, the cryptolect of Political Science Jargon rarely includes anything interesting or edifying to an outside audience, so I won't waste space by going into it here. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 4:56 AM by Patrick Belton  

UUF! (Leb. Arabic dial.: expression of emotion or surprise; generally enunciated by a male with a forefinger placed on the temple, and eyes closed; c.f. N. Nahas) For those of you in the blogosphere who have wisely jumped ship to Movable Type (which is to say, most everyone in the blogging world apart from us and the Conspirators Volokh, who fortunately happen to be numerically substantial enough to keep Blogger going rather single-handedly), you sadly missed the surprise and confusion of logging on to Blogger this morning and wondering if you hadn't somehow accidentally logged on to Movable Type instead. In an event which the BBC, perhaps rather strangely, decided to cover this morning, Blogger rolled out a substantial change to its user interface this morning, which includes a "dashboard" which looks basically like Movable Type's, except, again for some rather inexplicable reason, you seem to be able to place your picture on it - perhaps to guard against any momentary lapses of identity while blogging. Perhaps because I personally tend to enjoy believing I look rather like Hugh Grant while blogging, I think I'll elect not to disabuse myself of that misconception; on the other hand, one wonders whether this reminding of people of their identity when they post will have the unintended effect of cutting down on pseudonymous blogging. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 8:29 PM by David Adesnik  

FAVORITE SONS: North Dakota blogger and historian Jon Lauck has set up a blog devoted entirely to the Daschle vs. Thune Senate race. If you want an in-depth look at this critical race, you know where to go. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 5:27 PM by David Adesnik  

AW, SHUCKS: Jason B. writes that

This makes me happy that Bush is President. Very happy. In a really fundamental, non-political way. I really can't explain it adequately.

Even Yglesias had to admit that it was very sweet. Not that it prevented him from using it to demonsrate Bush's ethical shortcomings...

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# Posted 4:55 PM by Patrick Belton  

ONLINE URDU GRAMMAR TEXT: For those of you who might be interested (not all at once, now!), there's an excellent Urdu grammar textbook which has been digitised at the University of Chicago. (Although I haven't yet found as good an online grammar for Hindi, there's a guide to the Devanagari alphabet here - and all of you will undoubtedly be excited to hear there's a digitisation of Mícheál ó Siadhail's excellent Irish grammar from Yale University Press (1988) here.) (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 4:49 PM by David Adesnik  

DISSENT WITHIN THE RANKS: Senior generals are blasting Rumsfeld & Wolfowitz for their conduct of the occupation. The WaPo reports that the unnamed generals won't go on the record because they are afraid of Rumsfeld & Wolfowitz becoming vindictive. As one might expect, those who argue that we are losing Iraq believe that we must abandon our efforts to promote democracy there.

On an unrelated note, the WaPo article on the generals' dissent contains this classic line: "The New York Review of Books is not widely read in the U.S. military." Say it ain't so! (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 2:48 PM by Patrick Belton  

HEARD AROUND TOWN:

• `[WaPo Managing Editor Steve] Coll has done a great service by revealing how Saudi Arabia and its intelligence operations aided the rise of Osama bin Laden and Islamic extremism in Afghanistan. Saudi Arabia's alleged involvement in terrorism has been the subject of wild conspiracy theories since Sept. 11; Coll gives us a clear and balanced view of Saudi Arabia's real ties to bin Laden. The links he reveals are serious enough to prompt an important debate about the nature of the Saudi-American partnership in the fight against terrorism. ''Saudi intelligence officials said years later that bin Laden was never a professional Saudi intelligence agent,'' he writes, referring to Saudi support for foreign Arab fighters against the Russians in Afghanistan in the 1980's. Still, ''it seems clear that bin Laden did have a substantial relationship with Saudi intelligence.''' (NYT reviewing Steve Coll's Ghost Wars)

• `"Some of the most gripping passages take place far from Washington, as intrepid C.I.A. agents, code-named rockstars, begin to penetrate northern Iraq in advance of the invasion, handing out so many $100 bills to their informants that $100 soon becomes the going rate for a cup of coffee.' (NYT reviewing Bob Woodward's Plan of Attack)
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# Posted 12:26 PM by Patrick Belton  

AND PEACE UNTO JERUSALEM: Sunday being a day of peace, today could be an excellent day to take note of several projects doing important work to build understanding between Israelis and Palestinians, and between Jews and Muslims in countries across the world.

Wikipedia - which incidentally, as an encyclopedia written by the public grows more impressive by the day - has one list of projects. These include Seeds of Peace, a justly celebrated project which brings Israeli and Palestinian teenagers together for a summer at a site in Maine; the American Jewish Committee's project of dialogue with Muslim organisations of many stripes from around the world, and collaboration with the Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee in roundly denouncing and opposing scapegoating and vindictive attacks against American Muslims after the September 11th attacks; and the Abraham Fund, which is based in Israel and seeks to develop closer ties between Jews and Arab Israelis.

These organisations and ones like them are worthy of a great deal of moral and practical support - as when peace finally comes to the Middle East, it will in large part be because of their efforts and those of similar people of good will, on both sides of the painful divide which presently separates Jews and Muslims, people of the Book and Semitic cousins both.

Ure'êh bethubhyerushâlâim kol yemêy chayyeykha (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:32 AM by Patrick Belton  

SUDAN WATCH: This from the mail bag,

Your coverage of Sudan has been excellent.  In the rare case you missed it, this was the first paragraph from AFP's story this afternoon:

"Sudanese officials strongly denied UN charges of ethnic cleansing in the war-torn western region of Darfur and accused Western donors of fanning the crisis by withholding development aid."

 In other words: "There is nothing going on, but it will worsen in the event we are not payed."

 Were politics not tragic, it would be hilarious!

Cheers,
EA
(a member of our Nathan Hale Foreign Policy Society, Los Angeles chapter)

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# Posted 8:06 AM by Patrick Belton  

A VERY HAPPY MOTHERS DAY to our mothers, and to all mothers in our readership:

Clearances, II
In memoriam M.K.H., 1911-1984

Polished linoleum shone there. Brass taps shone.
The china cups were very white and big -
An unchipped set with sugar bowl and jug.
The kettle whistled. Sandwich and teascone
Were present and correct. In case it run,
The butter must be kept out of the sun.
And don't be dropping crumbs. Don't tilt your chair.
Don't reach. Don't point. Don't make noise when you stir.

It is Number 5, New Row, Land of the Dead,
Where grandfather is rising from his place
With spectacles pushed back on a clean bald head
To welcome a bewildered homing daughter
Before she even knocks. `What's this? What's this?'
And they sit down in the shining room together.

Seamus Heaney, from The Haw Lantern (1987)

Rachel also insists everyone immediately go inspect cute pictures of maternal polar bears. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion