Tuesday, January 08, 2008

# Posted 5:06 PM by Ariel David Adesnik  

I DON'T WANT TO SAY I TOLD YOU SO, BUT...This is not a post about John McCain. I have never wavered in my support for J-Mac, but I also didn't have much hope that he would be the #1 contender come January (although I haven't seen any results from New Hampshire yet).

But I did make the call for Obama and I stuck with it even when the conventional wisdom throughout the fall was that Hillary was inevitable. In January 2007, I already gave Obama a 50-50 shot at the nomination if he ran. As I said at the time, I wouldn't vote for an Obama in a general election because I'm not a liberal or a Democrat, but I respect Obama considerably.

In early April, I said straight out that my money is on Obama. I hedged a bit by saying that my confidence in that prediction didn't cross the 50% threshold, but it's hard to bet on a sure thing in politics. I certainly thought Obama had a much better chance than any other candidate.

Of course, he could still lose. Yes, candidates who win Iowa and New Hampshire tend to be unstoppable. But Hillary is one of kind.

Finally, forgive me for boasting. But some of the responses to my prediction cut a little too close. For example:
Thanks for ignoring the reality of class in America.

Obama draws upper middle class "progressives". Hillary despite her New Dem credentials, is more of a Soc Dem type dem, with a focus on tangible pocketbook issues. Its Gene McCarthy vs Bobby, Jack Kennedy vs Stevenson, an old story. Hell, its Gore vs Bradley.
This is same line of criticism that became conventional wisdom during Hillary's long summer. If you drink wine, you'll vote for Obama. If you drink beer, you'll vote for Hillary. I guess pinot noir is getting more popular.


(2) opinions -- Add your opinion

Boy was I wrong.
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