# Posted 9:14 PM by Patrick Belton  

OXBLOG'S STATE OF THE UNION INSTANT ANALYSIS:

* Basic summary: Opening material introduces counterterrorism as a unifying national project - The choice facing the nation is between pressing forward or turning back. The State of our Union is confident and strong. But with terror attacks in Bali, Jakarta, Casablanca, Mumbassa, Riyadh, Jerusalem, Istanbul, and Baghdad, the US must use every tool in its disposal against the threat of terrorism. One of those essential tools is the Patriot Act (first controversial element). Key provisions of the Act will expire next year (unexpected, and funny, applause from Democrats). One by one, America will bring terrorists to justice.

Shift to defense of assertive foreign policy, and its success: American leadership is making the world a better place. Afghanistan has gone from a training ground for Al Qaeda to a democracy with a constitution enshrining individual, minority, and women's rights; combat forces of the US, Great Britain, Poland, and Australia, enforced the will of the United Nations and ended the rule of Saddam Hussein, and the people of Iraq are free.” Of the top 55 officials of the former Iraqi regime, the US has arrested 45. US will never be intimidated by thugs or assassins. Introduced the president of the Iraqi Governing Council. With force behind our diplomacy, no one can now doubt the word of America; states US commitment to non-proliferation; budget will provide needed resources to the military for anti-terror purposes; against critics, the war on terror is really a war ("terrorists declared war on the United States, and war was what they got"); against congressional opponents of Iraq war, the world without Saddam is a better and safer place; against critics of unilateralism, lists international allies in Iraq; says America will never seek permission slip to defend the security of our country. The desire for freedom is universal; the US will undertake "forward strategy" of freedom (doubling the budget of the National Endowment for Democracy); the US will lead way in democratization.

Shift to trade and economic issues, and argument for strength of economy: the economy in good shape (tax cut money has been invested; list of favorable economic indicators; the American people are using their money better than government would have, and Congress was right to return it); administration is committed to education; support for the No Child Left Behind Act (choice is between the Act's common-sense testing and a retrograde return to shuffling kids along from grade to grade); introduces the Jobs for 21st Century job-training program; promises to continue “pro-growth” economic agenda; “unless you act” (repetition phrase), taxes will come back (booing, probably supportive booing from Republicans); calls for protection from frivolous lawsuits, less dependence on foreign energy; calls for “free and fair trade” (doesn't develop; just dropping a poll-tested phrase); calls for personal retirement accounts; individual ownership of Social Security; promises to cut deficit in half over 5 yrs and calls Congress to hold the increase in discretionary spending this year to less than 4%; foreign worker program is not amnesty, which he opposes, but a way to bring hard-working men and women out of shadows and into the mainstream of American life; calls for combating rising health care costs and expanding access to health care, in a bipartisan way (first reference to bipartisanship).

Sop to senior voters: congratulates Congress on passage of prescription drug benefit for seniors; lists everything the benefit will do for seniors, and that it won't change anything for seniors who didn't want change; calls for association health plans, a refundable health credit, and a second call for the elimination of frivolous and wasteful lawsuits, this time with regard to health care; calls for a deduction of catastrophic health care insurance coverage from taxes; promises to preserve system of private health care.

Bit directed toward social conservatives: values are eternal and country must take steps to keep the family and religious institutions strong in face of challenges from culture; introduces anti drug program; calls on professional sports to eliminate use of steroids; calls abstinence the only sure way to avoid STDs; constitutional amendment against gay marriage: calls for respect for populism and the will of the people against activist judges in defending marriage as between men and women, and promises recourse to constitutional amendment process if necessary to overrule judges; government must respect dignity of individual and individual's value in God’s sight (first reference to God); "unleashing" faith-based communities – calls on Congress to codify into law Bush's regulatory action permitting religious communities to compete equally for government funding; introduces program to ease prisoners' reentry into society, including funding for faith-based programs; America is the land of second chances, including for prisoners.

Closing matter: we are living in historic times; reads letter from Ashley Pearson, age 10, from Rhode Island who believes in troops, wants to help; Bush responds: Ashley should work hard in school, help people in need, and thank troops when she sees them. Democratization is irreversible; the path of US, guided by above, is right and true; may God continue to bless America.

* Analysis of speech: If the amount of time given over to a single idea reflects its relative importance in the State of the Union speech (a reasonable assumption), then the most important themes in tonight's speech, in descending order, are: the need to commit adequate resources to the military for the war on terror (87 seconds); that government will act against single-sex marriage (84 seconds); the administration's commitment to strengthening families and religious communities, and to combat juvenile use of drugs (78 seconds); the government's commitment to education and excellence for each child in America (72 seconds); that the world without Saddam is a better and safer place (69 seconds). The closing matter took 78 seconds, centered around the idea that we are living in historic times.

Incidentally, the average amount of continuous speech between applause lines was 29.28 seconds. In addition, if by speech units we mean a period of continuous speech without intended applause, the speech was constructed of:

16 units of 10 seconds or under
14 units of 11 to 20 seconds
12 units of 21 to 30 seconds
5 units of 31 to 40 seconds
1 unit of 41 to 50 seconds
3 units of 51 to 60 seconds
4 units of 61 to 70 seconds
and 3 units of 71 to 80 seconds. (Disclaimer: this excludes the introductory matter.)

* Thoughts: This is not a cautious speech - Bush makes one reference to bipartisanship, and instead defends his foreign policy record assertively, argues directly to the people of the country that he should be allowed to finish what he has begun, and appeals unapologetically to his most core constituencies on domestic policy. This is a speech which is meant to launch a re-election bid, not one intended to put forward a new program or to call for cooperation across the aisle.

* I'm struck by how much of a State of the Union address is formulaic: it simply wouldn't be a State of the Union if the president didn't say "the state of the Union is strong," read a letter that a young child wrote to him, and ask that God continue to bless America - these tropes are as much part of the annual ritual as the Sergeant of Arms of the House calling out "Mister Speaker, the President of the United States." I would be awfully interested if any of our readers had a sense of the historical background of these tropes.

Incidentally, the texts may be found here of all of the State of the Union addresses which have taken place since President Wilson's reinstatement of the oral (as opposed to written, as took place from Jefferson to Taft) transmission of the report mandated in Article II, Section 3. Lincoln's are here. And one computer scientist has analyzed all Addresses in history to determine what words appear most in bursts (the first years of the Republic see a great deal of "gentlemen," "militia," "British," "enemy," and "savages"; the Clinton years see welfare, bipartisan, college, communities, working, america, challenge, schools, teachers, 21st, ask, century, and help).

The full text of the speech can be found here. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 9:13 PM by Patrick Belton  

COME WATCH the State of the Union with us! (via CSPAN.org).... (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:05 PM by David Adesnik  

TALK ABOUT AN UPSET! Kerry first in Iowa. Edwards a strong second. Dean an unimpressive third. Gephardt a distant fourth. I have to admit, I really don't know what Iowa was thinking. Why Kerry? Edwards sort of makes sense, but why wasn't there any support for him until the final moments? Conversely, why did Dean look so strong to being with? And how could Iowa abandon the midwest's native son?

Regardless of the answers, this makes New Hampshire a whole lot more interesting. I won't venture any predictions, but I do hope that Edwards can pick up 30% next week as well. Still, one strong showing in an early primary rarely says much about where the race is headed. For a solid assessment of where the conventional wisdom now stands, take a look at the NYT article on Iowa. All I would add is that tonight's results are an indirect but significant setback for Lieberman, who is looking like more and more of an also ran.

For more commentary, visit CalPundit, TPM, and Tapped. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 10:54 PM by David Adesnik  

WAPO PILE-ON: The same WaPo article I criticized last night has come in for quite a thrashing by other bloggers as well.

First, Glenn took the WaPo to task for its casual insistence that Bush described the Iraqi threat as imminent. (By extension, Glenn might have criticized me for writing that nothing in the WaPo article was "necessarily wrong".) While there is no question that Bush et al. were careful not to describe the Iraqi threat as "imminent", they did overplay it in a way that made the threat seem to be, well, imminent. Thus, while the WaPo has no business getting its facts wrong, it's hard for me to get indignant about this one.

Next up, Steven Den Beste provides a lengthy fisking of the article in question. Den Beste does a very good job of showing just how formulaic the WaPo article is by showing how it recites each tenet of the media's conventional wisdom about the war in Iraq.

While the Post's Glenn Kessler gets almost all of his facts right, he could just have easily written an article that presents a very different perspective on the war as objective truth. For example, instead of fretting about American disrespect for the United Nations, Kessler could have described how the UN has come through the war with its influence intact, thus invalidating the multilateralists' predictions that Bush would destory the "postwar international order". Or, ideally, Kessler could have provided both perspectives and fulfilled his journalistic obligation to provide balanced reporting.

At the same time, one ought to note that Den Beste's apoplectic criticism of the WaPo is pretty much paranoid. Den Beste writes:

They say, "Never attribute to malice that which can be explained by stupidity", but we seem to have gone beyond any possible stupidity now. Have we reached the point where we can assume there's a conspiracy to spread a big lie? And where we can safely dismiss the opinions of anyone who repeats it?...

All the signs are there: this is a straight leftist propaganda piece disguised as straight news reporting.

Leaving aside its bombast, the main conceptual problem with Den Beste's criticism is its (slightly sarcastic?) attribution of a definite motive to Glenn Kessler and the WaPo. First of all, anyone familiar with the Post's pro-war/pro-reconstruction editorial line knows that the paper isn't committed to a leftist policy line. Second, it is improbable in the extreme that a reporter committed to manipulating the public would last very long at a top-flight newspaper.

The real explanation here -- one that is far more complex than either stupidity or conspiracy -- has to do with journalists' professional norms. As numerous studies (many of them by Stephen Hess) have shown, journalists operate according to fairly specific rules of which they are vaguely aware but almost wholly unable to articulate.

One of those rules is the confusion of bipartisanship with objectivity. Notice, for example, how much stress Kessler puts on the fact that Republicans are offering many of the same criticisms one is accustomed to hearing from Democrats. As a result of moderate criticism from Ken Adelman and Richard Haass, Kessler grants himself license to deconstruct speeches by Bush, Cheney and Powell in a manner that reflects their alleged loss of credibility both at home and abroad.

In all likelihood, Kessler agrees with the criticisms that he describes as part of a bipartisan consensus. If he didn't, he probably would've done more to demonstrate that opposing perspectives exist. Yet Kessler does make sure to quote Richard Perle, who makes the reasonable point that intelligence is about guesswork, not certainty. Of course, by the time you get to Perle's quote, Kessler's anti-administration spin makes it seem that Perle is an ostrich-headed defender of the White House party line.

In the final analysis, it is best to approach mainstream journalism as the product of an unspoken yet fairly precise code of conduct that places strict limits on correspondents while enabling them to advance subtle opinions through the process of selecting what to write about. Some articles, such as Kessler's, obey the letter of the law more than the spirit. Some newspapers, such as the NYT, show less deference to the spirit of the law than others. Yet in order to maintain one's status as a professional, one must respect the letter of law, a framework that gives the reader a certain basic confidence in what he reads, regardless of its spin. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 1:01 PM by Patrick Belton  

THERE SOME QUITE INTERESTING things afoot in Pakistan at the moment. Responding to US concern about madressahs, special groups drawn from the security agencies examined the records of madrassas in Faisalabad, paying particular attention to the names of students and staff, connection with other religious organizations, and sources of funding (raids which drew in turn criticism from the Islamist group Jamiat Ahle-Hadith). This comes on the heels of an International Crisis Group report which is highly critical of Gen Musharraf for not having followed through on his promised steps to stem jihadi ideology in the madressahs and bring them under government-approved curricula while making closer examinations of their funding sources. (ICG's Asia director Robert Templer argues in the report that Musharraf is too dependent upon the political support of the religious parties to have been able to move against the religious schools.)

At the same time, raids against Al Qaeda operatives in Karachi have increased in frequency, while in Peshawar similar crackdowns are being attempted against tribesmen harboring suspected Al Qaeda members. Also in Karachi, the operations chief of the Taliban- and Al Qaeda-linked Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (Shamim Ahmed, 25) was arrested today for his role in a bombing last Thursday at the city's Anglican cathedral.

What's really happening there? Stratfor believes that the national government in Islamabad has acquired some new level of support from the sundry tribes, enhancing the government's capability to flush out militant Islamists from tribally-controlled badlands and allowing Musharraf to cooperate with the U.S. while irking a smaller amount of anti-U.S. domestic sentiment through countermilitancy operations prosecuted in middle-class neighborhoods. On the one hand, Al Qaeda seems to be feeling under the gun after the organization posted a bad December - this, according to analysts of the Osama tape released in January. On the other hand, Musharraf also is feeling under the gun, as shown by the obvious penetration by militants of his security apparatus indicated by close knowledge of his movements drawn on in the two recent assassination attempts, while international flows of terrorists into his country continue to be exemplified by foreign-born operatives such as Uyghur separatist Hasan Mahsum and the Chechen-born suicide bomber who attacked Musharraf on Christmas Day. Some argue that precisely by appearing so weak in the face of Islamist opposition and two assassination attempts, Musharraf has gained serious negotiating power with both Washington and New Delhi, neither of which wishes to see him replaced with an Islamist successor. Combined with the possible playing out an end-of-term desire on Vajpayee's part to establish a place for himself in history aided by the current strong position of his popular Bharatiya Janata Party (shored, in turn, by a booming Indian economy), then the potential for amicable progress in Kashmir talks along lines fairly favorable to Pakistan seems increasingly likely, which could weaken Kashmiri radicals and their supporters within the lower levels of the ISI. At the same time, the increasing tempo of crackdowns on Al Qaeda members could indicate that the effect of two assassination attempts perpetrated by Islamists may have been to draw Musharraf more firmly into Washington's orbit, rather than toward the propitiation of his would-be murderers. And that would be good news indeed. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 3:11 AM by David Adesnik  

FUZZY MATH, SHARP POLITICS: This WaPo editorial is right; Bush's proposal for immigration reform isn't perfect by a longshot, but it's enabled him to capture the middle ground in political terms and the high ground in moral terms. Much of the Democratic candidates' criticism of the proposal is valid, but only leads one to ask why, if the Democrats are so concerned about immigrants, they didn't make this an issue first. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 3:03 AM by David Adesnik  

NEWSFLASH -- BUSH CRITICIZED FOR NOT FINDING WMD: I'm trying to figure out how this got onto the front page of the WaPo. I wouldn't say that anything in the article is necessarily wrong. But is it news that the failure to find WMD in Iraq has hurt US credibility? Or that serious questions have been raised about the politicization of the intelligence process? Or that the Administration now focuses more on the humanitarian victory in Iraq?

If the NYT ran this article, I wouldn't have bothered posted anything. It's what you expect from them. But the WaPo? I expect better. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 2:49 AM by David Adesnik  

PATS HEADED TO SUPERBOWL: Can New England bring home a second victory in the big game? I'm not sure. While their defense was simply overpowering, questions remain on offense. Why couldn't the Patriots finish drives in the red zone, instead relying on kicker Adam Vinatieri to put up five field goals? Can quarterback Tom Brady turn it up a notch after throwing an interception and a handful of almosts in today's game? I hope so. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 2:42 AM by David Adesnik  

OUR CONDOLENCES to the victims of terror in Baghdad. This was not an attack on coalition forces. It was the murder of Iraqi civilians. It is terrorism. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:50 PM by Patrick Belton  

BACK IN OXFORD AND LINKING UP A STORM: Today's theme is democracy promotion, and David Ignatius has a wonderful piece about how education and technology are slowly, irreversibly liberalizing the Arab world - beginning with Dubai. "Education is the future of this region," says Sheik Nahayan bin Mubarak, UAE's minister of education. Under Nahayan, the Higher Colleges of Technology have grown from fewer than 500 students to 15,000, of whom 60 percent are women. Ignatius closes by noting that even at a time when it's hard to find much to be very optimistic about in the Arab world, UAE makes you remember change is coming, even to the land of the dromedary and the scorpion.

Elsewhere, Economist has several thoughtful pieces on the progress of democracy in the Middle East. Jordan and Kuwait recently held relatively free parliamentary elections, though both were marked by gerrymandering - and in Kuwait's parliamentary elections July 5th, Islamist and tribal candidates ousted liberals from all but three of parliament's 50 seats. Syria and Saudi Arabia have made halting steps toward democratic reform since the fall of the region's most infamous dictator - Syria's Ba'ath party has claimed to have ceased all its interference in governemnt policymaking and administration as part of a program of voluntary de-Baathification, and Crown Prince Abdullah hosted a forum of intellectuals producing a blueprint of reform, both for his own kingdom and for the Arab world. Outside the Arab world, the Economist also has surveys of democratic prospects in Central Asia, and - on a slightly different note - inequality in Latin America.

Continuing our survey, Freedom House releases its annual report on the state of freedom in the world. In 2003, 25 countries demonstrated forward progress in freedom, while 13 registered setback. Among the gainers, Argentina moved from Partly Free to Free, and Burundi and Yemen moved from Not Free to Partly Free. Among those losing ground, Bolivia and Papua New Guinea moved from Free to Partly Free, and Azerbaijan, Central African Republic, and Mauritania moved from Partly Free to Not Free. Of the 49 countries Freedom House rated Not Free, 8 were given the lowest possible numerical ratings for political rights and civil liberties - Burma, Cuba, Libya, North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, and Turkmenistan, along with two territories, Chechnya and Tibet.

Still elsewhere, the always excellent Journal of Democracy has insightful pieces on Mid-Eastern liberalism, Afghanistan and Iraq. The Journal also has pieces on Arab democracy and terror, Islam, and democratization.

In the Washington Post, Glenn Kessler and Robin Wright provide another assessment of the administration's drive for Arab democracy. One impediment is the unwillingness of Arab governments to cooperate: Egypt, for instance, blocks all funding for democratization programs, particularly to democracy advocate Saad Eddin Ibrahim's Ibn Khaldun Center. On the other hand, a quite nice pro-democracy effort is the Middle East Partnership Initiative, administered in the State Department by VP Cheney's daughter Elizabeth Cheney. The program's funding is not inconsequential but is modest - $129 million for 2002 and 2003, with as much as $120 million coming this year - and democratization scholars like Carnegie's Marina Ottaway charge that the project takes on easy and soft aspects of democracy promotion while not tackling the unwillingness of autocracies to step aside in favour of elections, which can only be promoted at very high levels.

And while speaking of Carnegie, they've produced a great deal of good democracy promotion literature lately, too - Tom Carothers argues the administration needs to commit more resources to democratization and warns that it will be neither a swift nor an easy remedy to terrorism - while Amy Hawthorne, editor of Carnegie's Arab Reform Bulletin (and, incidentally, a Yalie), publishes a number of good pieces, including ones on parties and media in Iraq, and reform prospects in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Arab judiciaries. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 1:50 AM by David Adesnik  

COINCIDENCE? I THINK NOT! Someone with the same name as a former OxBlogger has an interesting op-ed in the NYT. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 1:43 AM by David Adesnik  

HOWARD DEAN IS SMARTER THAN YOU THINK: Maureen Dowd writes:

I went to Iowa hunting Howard Dean. His campaign said he might give me five minutes. On the phone.

Perhaps Gov. Howard didn't want the Times to run a column about his choice of sweaters. Plus, it turns out that Dean never gave MoDo her five minutes. So she's getting back at him by saying that you can't run on anger alone:

A race rooted mainly in attacking the president may not take Dr. Dean far enough. Voters want someone who's been through the fire. They care about character. They want to know the evolution of the man, even if it's a myth.

In other words, Dean's lack of cynical condescension toward the American voter is why he's losing momentum. Typical MoDo advice. Yet attacking Dean is only a sideshow. MoDo's real target is Mr. Angry himself, Paul Krugman. This little feud is getting nasty. (Heard offstage: cackles of glee.) (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 1:29 AM by David Adesnik  

BLACKHAWKS DOWN: The NYT's Eric Schmitt reports that the army has conducted a comprehensive survey in order to determine why so many helicopters are being lost to hostile fire.

"The enemy has clearly seen the possibilities from earlier successes," said one senior Army aviator in the Persian Gulf region. "The enemy enjoys a strategic success each time one of our aircraft is shot down. It becomes a major media event, and questions arise as to who is winning. So the enemy sees this as very useful."

Schmitt also reports that the guerrillas are now using increasingly sophisticated tactics. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 1:20 AM by David Adesnik  

OXBLOG VISITS EXTREME BEER FEST: What makes a beer extreme? According to BeerAdvocate.com, the festival's sponsor,

Extreme literally means that which exceeds the ordinary, usual or expected. And as such is a great way to describe these types of brews when approaching them from a mainstream point of view, where most beers that aren't fizzy, yellow and bland are indeed extreme to mainstream palates. And despite the media's recent usage of the term as a buzzword to solely describe high alcohol beers, many brewers and consumers have embraced Extreme Beer as something that pushes the boundaries of brewing and the palates of beer lovers.

We see it as the continuing evolution of the US beer industry and perhaps the second shot heard round the world for the American craft beer revolution. It's not just a pissing contest to see who can make the world's strongest beer; it's a movement - a movement to showcase the craft and how complex and versatile beer can actually be.

What are we talking about?

- Beers made with no hops but plenty of heather and lavender.
- Beers aged in Jack Daniels oak barrels with an alcohol by volume of 20 percent or more.
- Traditional beer styles, but with double, triple or more hops or malt.
- Beers brewed with chocolate, peanut butter or espresso beans.
- Strong Porters brewed with Chinese candied ginger.
- Ales brewed with oysters or seaweed.
- Sharp tasting beers inoculated with various wild bacteria and yeast strains.

These aren't fancy imports from faraway lands, but rather handcrafted examples of beer being brewed right here in the US. They are highly artisanal and diverse, obtainable in many markets, and they tweak the minds and palates of not only beer drinkers, but appreciators of wine and spirits - a positive crossover conversion for the beer industry.

And no, this is not a new beer trend. The concept of Extreme Beer, although new to many, has actually been around for quite a few years. Although it's been documented that Jim Koch of the Boston Beer Co. first used the term to describe the release of Sam Adams Triple Bock in 1994 (then the strongest beer at 17.5% ABV), home- and pro-brewers have been testing the limits of their craft since the '70s. We can only assume that adventurous brewers have been doing the same since the discovery of brewing beer.

To bring more awareness to Extreme Beer, on January 17, 2004, we'll be hosting the BeerAdvocate.com Extreme Beer Fest at the Cyclorama (Boston Center for the Arts). The day will include two sessions (1-5pm and 6-10pm) and a very limited connoisseur session. Local food, live music and cheese pairings will be available. Tickets are $25 in advance / $30 at the door and are available by going to beeradvocate.com. The connoisseur and evening sessions are scheduled to sell out, so purchase your tickets today.

Respect beer.

My apologies for not posting this notice before the festival. You all missed a helluva time. Also, my apologies for posting such a long quotation without offering any insightful commentary to go with it. But after all that extreme beer, I'm not exactly in a position to think straight. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:14 AM by David Adesnik  

SACHS FISKS CLARK: One rule of thumb you can pretty much follow in life is that if Steve Sachs says you're wrong, you're wrong. And Wes Clark is wrong.

(This post is going to get me in big trouble some day, because Steve is going to say at some point that I am wrong. And he'll probably be right.) (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:01 PM by David Adesnik  

THE EXPERTS SHALL BLOG: Dan Drezner notes that the Columbia Journalism Review has set up a blog to monitor campaign coverage. I'm quite curious to see how this turns out. Will the editors of the top academic journalism review provide better analysis than you can already get from first-rate blogs? Or will the CJR effort simply show that if you're inside the ivory tower, you're a step behind everyone else? (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 10:46 PM by David Adesnik  

THE ENEMY IN THE SHADOWS: Paul Krugman says that Wes Clark "gets it" the same way that Howard Dean "gets it". In other words, they both know that George W. Bush is a threat to American democracy who "even put[s] Nixon to shame".

But which Democratic candidate doesn't get it? Presumably Lieberman. But why would Paulie waste a column on also-ran? I'm guessing that Krugman has nothing against Kerry or Gephardt either, and is probably OK even with Edwards.

Pretty much the only person who comes in for direct criticism from is Maureen Dowd. Krugman writes that

Most political reporting on the Democratic race, it seems to me, has gotten it wrong. Some journalists do, of course, insist on trivializing the whole thing: what I dread most, in the event of an upset in Iowa, is the return of reporting about the political significance of John Kerry's hair.

Did he mean to say Kerry's hair, or Wes Clark's sweater? Could there be a Krugman-Dowd confrontation in the works? Listen to OxBlog cackle with glee.

Anyhow, I think the real target audience for Krugman's column is NYT readers who aren't sure they're ready to be as angry as Howard or Wes or Paulie. Not that it matters in political terms -- unangry Democrats are not about to vote for George W. But this is about validation, about Krugman proving -- like Dean -- that he isn't outside the mainstream. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 10:19 PM by David Adesnik  

MODERATE LIBERAL MEDIA BIAS: Terry Neal reports on Dean supporters' intense resentment of media bias against their candidate. Neal responds that all frontrunners can expect a tougher ride. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:50 AM by Patrick Belton  

AL-HAYAT AL-JADIDAH RESPONDS to President Bush's Mars speech: "The US is preparing for the invasion of Mars and other planets," writes the Palestinian daily. "What are the other planets chosen for the US invasion? Are they an axis of planetary evil? And what is the relationship between the regime on Pluto and fundamentalist groups?" (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:24 AM by David Adesnik  

THE CLARK TRANSCRIPT -- A CORRECTION: I've received a number of e-mails saying that Matt Drudge did not invent quotations and attribute them to Wesley Clark. As the links in this post indicate, my source for that assertion was Josh Marshall. I did not do background research on his post, since Josh was directly quoting a Knight Ridder dispatch. If the KR dispatch turns out to be wrong, I'll take responsibility for the matter at OxBlog's end (while giving KR an earful). (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 10:40 AM by Patrick Belton  

BACK IN OXFORD, and preparing to resume normal posting duties as soon as I shower! It's very good to be back in England, a country which has come very much to be a second home. See you all soon! (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:32 PM by David Adesnik  

RED LETTER DAY FOR TPM: Josh Marshall has been declared blogger of the year by an actual dead-tree publication run by famous people. What next, a Pulitzer for Instapundit?

Josh is also hot on the trail of Matt Drudge, who seems to have invented quotes demonstrating that Wes Clark was pro-war back in 2002. So far, it looks like Joe Lieberman and RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie have fallen for it.

While Dean hasn't fallen for Drudge's skullduggery, he's been telling his audience that "I truly believe [Wes Clark]'s a Republican." I'm not sure whether that sort of statement is better categorized as a lie or a delusion. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:12 PM by David Adesnik  

REMARKABLE: Instapundit has posted the money grafs from a long report on Iraq by Expert #1 Ken Pollack. As the money grafs show, Pollack is a cautious optimist who believes that serious American planning can ensure the success of the reconstruction effort. But you really have to go through all of Pollack's report to get a sense of how dramatically different his view of Iraq is from the one provided by the daily papers.

Pollack begins his review of the situation in Iraq by saying that

It is useful and important to start with some of the most important positives in Iraq, both because too often they have been overlooked in the American media coverage, and because they point to the opportunity that we have there.

Coming from a mild-mannered, conflict-averse guy like Pollack, that kind of indictment of the media is very, very significant. (And, yes, OxBlog is enjoying its vindication very much.) The first point that Pollack takes up is Iraqi public opinion. As most observers report, the people of Iraq fear an American withdrawal far more than they resent the American presence. Next, Pollack takes a look at the insurgency and writes that

In short, [these] are not determined attacks by insurgents willing to die for their cause -- nor are they always very skillfully conducted. The attackers generally place a premium on their survival, not on killing Americans. As a result, most of the attacks do little damage, and the United States continues to suffer only an average of about 1-2 dead per day. As one sergeant who had fought in Vietnam put it to me, "if this were the Viet Cong, we'd have a hundred dead per day."

For this reason, there is a widespread sense that most of the insurgents are motivated primarily by money. While he was on the loose, Saddam reportedly paid $250 for killing an American. Consequently, his loyalists -- who never evinced much willingness to die for him while he ruled -- were willing to conduct large numbers of rather paltry attacks in the hope that they might get lucky and kill one or more Americans, rather than stand and fight (especially against U.S. firepower) and risk being killed, even though by doing so they would have a much greater likelihood of killing Americans.

What happened to all those reports in the WaPo and NYT that the sophistication of the insurgents' attacks was constantly increasing throughout the summer and fall? Well, either the Ba'athists were so incompetent to begin with that they are still incompetent despite marked improvement. Or the media decided that this was a quagmire even though it didn't have the evidence to back its opinion up.

After the insurgents, Pollack turns to the competence of American reconstruction personnel. He writes that

it is important to mention the numerous successes enjoyed by U.S. military and (to a lesser extent) civilian personnel throughout Iraq. American military civil affairs personnel, U.S. AID and State Department officials, contractors, and members of non-governmental organizations have spread out into many Iraqi villages and neighborhoods. In virtually every case, their presence has proven to have had something of the Midas touch...

These personnel acknowledge that they have made mistakes. They were sent in, in most cases, with very little understanding of Iraq or its needs, and little guidance on what to do or how to do it. They have made things up as they have gone along. One U.S. military civil affairs officer estimated that no more than a simple majority of his team's decisions were good ones, but over time, they had corrected their mistakes, continued their successes, and won the trust and gratitude of the Iraqis that they worked with.

This assessment meshes well with that of NYT correspondent Eric Schmitt, whose reports on the adaptability of American soldiers and their high morale almost seem designed to expose just how wrong the rest of the NYT staff (except John Burns) has gotten the story. It also does a good job of making the point that Americans can do a lot of good work despite their lack of expertise in the local language and culture. Why? Because winning hearts and minds depends on our democratic values, not our ability to speak Arabic.

So what about the problems? In the field of security, the number one issue is crime. While it's hard to come by any quantitative measures of the problem,

A poll conducted in early October by the Iraqi Center for Research and Strategic Studies under the auspices of the International Republican Institute found that 60 percent of Iraqis felt "not very safe" or "not safe at all" in their neighborhoods, and virtually the same percentage had either "not very" [sic] or "no" confidence that coalition forces would make their cities safe. Only a little more than a quarter of those surveyed felt "very safe."5

Pollack's controversial suggestion for correcting this situation is to have American soldiers spend a lot more time on

foot patrols backed by helicopters and/or vehicles that the British Army learned to use in Northern Ireland, and that all NATO forces eventually employed in the Balkans. This is the only way that American forces can get out, reassure the Iraqi civilians, find out from them where the troublemakers are, and respond to their problems.

This means risking higher casualties, but Pollack believes there is no other way to get the job done. While I am inclined to agree, Pollack might have considered the political dynamics at play. Both the media and much of the American public become alarmed every time the American body count accelerates. The more alarmed the media and the public get, the harder it is for the administration to fund the occupation and provide manpower. While the Democrats on Capitol Hill seem to believe that the occupation must be done right, Bush's main concern in the coming months will be his re-election. And there is no reason to expect Howard Dean or any other candidate not to take advantage of public alarm. Thus, the safest bet for the administration is to keep the casualty count lay and deal with problems in Iraq after the election.

In the long-term, providing public security will be something that the Iraqis have to do for themsleves. Thus, in theory, "Iraqification" is good idea. But as Pollack argues, it is premature. The mad rush to train Iraqi security forces -- army, police, border guards etc. -- has resulted in shoddy training that turns incompetent and often ruthless men out onto the streets with the authority to abuse others. As they did in the days of Saddam, some policemen are once again resorting to extortion, rape, kidnapping and even murder. Pollack reports that

The problem is so bad that three different CPA officials told me that if they were out alone outside the Green Zone (admittedly a rare experience for many American officials) and they were flagged down by an Iraqi police officer, they probably would not stop because they would be too frightened of what he might do.

At the same time, too many Iraqis are becoming frightened of American troops because of anti-insurgent raids that humiliate many innocent homeowners. Again, Pollack suggests that the solution is to worry less about casualties and more about hearts and minds.

To be continued... (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 10:41 AM by Patrick Belton  

COME SCHMOOZE WITH US: Incidentally, the DC chapter of our Nathan Hale foreign policy society will be meeting next Wednesday for a presentation and discussion of the Department of Homeland Security's operations, featuring a senior official from the department. Last week our DC chapter was able to host Toby Muse, the Times's Colombia correspondent, for a conversation about the alternative possible steps to be taken there. Our chapters in New York, Boston, Chicago, L.A., New Haven, the Bay area, and Oxford are also meeting regularly - please drop us an email if you'd like to be added to our mailing list! (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:44 PM by David Adesnik  

UNDERSTANDING SISTANI: Over at Needlenose, Swopa has been observing the Shi'ites -- and specifically Ayatollah Sistani -- very carefully ever since the occupation began. Swopa is absolutely right that Sistani has a lot of talent when it comes to driving a hard bargain.

I think he is also right that the CPA is trying to put the best face on the fact Sistani has more influence than they are willing to admit.

But really, this all comes back to the question of what Sistani's true intentions are. On this point, Swopa writes that

We don't know -- and probably can't know -- exactly what type of government the Grand Ayatollah foresees for Iraq. It's even possible that he doesn't know himself. Sistani, after all, is not a lifelong politician; he's a religious scholar who has a history of avoiding political disputes.

Exactly. As I often say (drumroll please) the media has failed to provide evidence that Sistani has a fundamentalist agenda despite menacing-yet-vague statements about Sistani's intentions.

Six months ago, Swopa suggested that what Sistani and other Shi'ite clerics want is "a straightforward march to an Islamic fundamentalist state in Iraq". Yet he also conceded more recently that

In discussing this subject with others, I've sometimes been told that "but a majority of the Shiites don't want an Islamic state, or at least an Islamic theocracy."

This is very likely true. But the theocratic elements are also virtually the only organized Shiite bloc in the country, which gives them a large head start in any election/constitutional process.

That complicates the situation quite a bit, since Swopa argues that Sistani's influence comes from the absolute loyalty of Iraqi Shi'ites. Yet if the people have a very different vision of government from the Ayatollah, they may not decide to lend him their support, even if his political representatives campaign with a moderate face. Moreover, if Sistani keeps insisting on his total commitment to "democracy", Shi'ites opposed to an Islamic state may very well hold him to his word.

Finally, there are the Kurds and the Sunnis. I do not believe that a Shi'ite state can function with a 30-40% minority of (heavily armed) dissenters. Thus, I am more confident than Swopa that the US can extract concessions from Sistani concerning the rights of religious and ethnic minorities. While the United States doesn't command the loyalty of any constituency in the manner of Iraq's ethnic or religious leaders, their role as broker and as military trustee puts them in a position with considerable leverage, if used wisely. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:26 PM by Patrick Belton  

YOU CAN'T MAKE THIS STUFF UP, #15: Via CNN:

"He made an internationally known obscene gesture when he was being photographed by the Federal Police," Federal Police agent Wagner Castilho told Reuters.

The pilot, identified as Dale Robin Hirsch, raised his middle finger at police to protest new Brazilian security measures that require U.S. citizens to be fingerprinted and photographed upon entering the South American country.

Brazil implemented the policy on January 1 in retaliation for a similar U.S. program.

Further down on the page, a picture of relatively naked hip-wriggling women dressed in ornate headgear appears above the headline "Samba dancers greet tourists in Rio de Janeiro as part of a campaign to make up for long airport lines. " (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 10:50 PM by David Adesnik  

PALESTINIAN FAMILY VALUES: Steve Sturm has some comments about the particularly disturbing nature of a recent suicide bombing in Israel. This time, the bomber -- the murderer -- was the mother of two young children who seems to have had no qualms about leaving her children motherless.

I have no comment. But as Golda Meir said many, many years ago, there will be no peace until the Arabs love their children more than they hate Israel. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 6:50 PM by Patrick Belton  

HOOA, AIRBORNE: Special operations forces, working with members of the 82nd Airborne, have captured number 54 of Iraq's 55 most-wanted. The man was Khamis Sirhan al-Muhammad, former Baath Party regional chairman for the Karbala governate. Army Brig. Gen. Mark Kimmitt, deputy operations director for Combined Joint Task Force 7, said "He was an enabler for many of the resistance attacks on Iraqis, as well as (against) U.S. and coalition forces. These attacks were crimes against the Iraqi people." (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 6:10 PM by Patrick Belton  

I LOVE HOWARD: No, not Governor Dean - you are still reading OxBlog, remember. No, I mean the historic black university - I had a lovely campus tour there this morning, after breakfast and coffee with my friend (and Howard history professor) Alan McPherson, and I was struck by what a phenomenally friendly campus environment I had stepped into. Walking down 6th street outside Howard's main gate, I had three separate middle-aged women wish me "good morning" - and this in the middle of Washington, D.C. It seems to be an awfully special place, and I was impressed and intrigued enough that I will be returning to Howard over the summer to lecture to a consortium of international affairs students from historically black colleges.

(And for those of you who are interested in Latin America, incidentally, my friend Alan is author of a groundbreaking history of anti-Americanism in Latin America, Yankee No, just published by Harvard University Press.) (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 3:20 PM by Patrick Belton  

TOO GOOD A MAN FOR HIS PARTY? The Washington Post assesses the candidacy of Senator Lieberman in words which it would be very difficult for me to better:

Mr. Lieberman is progressive on most issues (abortion, the environment, gay rights) without being a captive of the party's orthodoxy. During three terms in the Senate, he has defied the teachers unions to support experiments with school vouchers and efforts to hold schools accountable for their performance, infuriated trial lawyers by supporting reasonable steps to rein in abusive lawsuits, and confronted Hollywood over gratuitous sex and violence. He's moderate on fiscal matters, combining one of the most progressively structured tax plans of the Democratic field with a pledge to limit the growth of most federal spending to the rate of inflation. He brings a deep commitment to civil rights, nurtured in marches in Mississippi while a college student. His assertive approach to national security contemplates U.S. intervention on behalf of democracy and human rights, not only in Iraq but throughout the globe.

Unlike most of the other Democrats who supported the war, Mr. Lieberman neither minimized that view when it seemed unpopular nor undercut it by opposing Mr. Bush's request for reconstruction funds. Likewise, Mr. Lieberman hasn't trimmed his trade views to fit the demands of presidential politics.

But in a year in which it seems that anger sells, Mr. Lieberman's wry, measured demeanor may fail to inspire some primary voters. He can be less than rousing on the stump. His emphasis on values and morality has often added an important dimension to the political discourse -- as with his withering floor speech about President Bill Clinton's conduct with Monica Lewinsky -- yet he can come off as sanctimonious. Still, for a candidate who's sometimes dismissed as "too nice" to win, and who was criticized during the last campaign for being too soft in the vice presidential debate, Mr. Lieberman has most often been the first to take on his rivals, even when it seemed risky to do so.

It may say more about the current state of the Democratic Party than it does about Mr. Lieberman that he is having a difficult time making this message sell.

The full piece is here. Compare it, for instance, to the WaPo's fairly damning assessment of Governor Dean, and I think the two pieces speak out very well for both the Post editorial page's moral clarity and its good sense. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 8:14 PM by David Adesnik  

IS MATT YGLESIAS SHORT? The topic of the day over at Matt's site is why everyone assumes that Matt is short based on his headshot. So I have a confession to make: before I first met Matt in person, I also assumed that he was short. It definitely came as something of a shock the first time I saw his head attached to a six-foot-plus body.

But why did I assume what I assume? Here are some suggestions from the comments page on Matt's site:

"Your face isn't long (like, say, John Kerry's), so people -- myself included -- presumed that your body isn't, either."

"Blatant ethnic and cultural stereotyping, pure and simple: Hispanics and Jews are presumptively short, intellectuals are small."

"I think it is the lack of a neck of any substance. Either you don't have one or the pictures aren't showing it."

And you wonder why OxBlog never puts up author photos. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 7:46 PM by David Adesnik  

TPM SPIN CONTROL: This Slate column says that Wes Clark puts his foot in his mouth no less often than Howard Dean. Josh Marshall tries to defend Clark by arguing that he's telling the uncomfortable (for the Bush administration) truth, rather than making constant gaffes.

Personally, I think Marshall would look a lot smarter if he just admitted that Clark said a bunch of dumb, slightly offensive things that are nowhere near as dumb as the kind of things Dean often says. (Of course, the Slate column doesn't include this howler that Clark gave us a few days ago.)

On the brighter side (for TPM), Josh gets a good shot in at the Bush administration's peculiar attitude toward releasing classified documents:

Number of days between Novak column outing Valerie Plame and announcement of investigation: 74 days.

Number of days between O'Neill 60 Minutes interview and announcement of investigation: 1 day.

Having the administration reveal itself as a gaggle of hypocritical goons ... priceless.

Josh really should've stopped before that last sentence. It's that sort of snide, overwrought remark which often makes reading TPM a chore. Besides, by Josh's standard, even the saintly Jimmy Carter was a hypocritical goon.

While no one should tolerate the kind of double standards that the Bush administration has clearly employed, going for the jugular every time only results in making Beltway politics ever more cutthroat. (Yet as Mr. Marshall would surely remind us, it's the Republicans who were cutthroat first.)

(0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 4:51 PM by Patrick Belton  

NO ONE, ON THE OTHER HAND, IS ACCUSING ME of gloating about anything the heck at all.... (Maybe I'm not doing something right....) (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 4:31 PM by David Adesnik  

I'VE BEEN CRITICIZED BY READERS for not gloating approrpriately over this. But, really, when your team has the best starting rotation in Major League Baseball (Mussina, Brown, Vazquez, Contreras, Lieber), you can afford to stay quiet when a AAA ball club from Texas poaches a couple of your starters. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:33 PM by David Adesnik  

THE WORST FORM OF GOVERNMENT (EXCEPT ALL OTHERS): Dan Drezner says that getting serious about democracy in Pakistan and Saudi Arabia may be America's best hope. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:25 PM by David Adesnik  

GO FLY A KIKE: MQ writes in to say that

I tend to find much of the writing on Oxblog, on the whole, of good value, particularly in parsing out the national media's reportage of the occupation of Iraq.

However, the title of your January 11, 11:08am post, "Full of Shi'ite," is disgraceful, disrespectful and not in the least bit cute.

I see no purpose to the use of an incorrect transliteration of a Muslim sect's name in such a distasteful manner. Would you be at all happy if someone would go off about the "Shrew Jew?" Would it even be funny? [Yes and yes. --DA]

This is particularly disconcerting as it is in the context of a discussion of some of the more moderate leadership of the Iraqi Shi'a.

Don't irresponsible lines such as yours only serve to confirm for Muslims the underhanded disdain of those who would proclaim their utmost respect for the cultures, religions and sensitivities of the Muslim peoples?

(0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 7:34 PM by David Adesnik  

REALISTIC EXPECTATIONS: There is a solid message at the foundation of this op-ed by Steven Metz, an officer at the Army War College:

Whatever government and constitution emerge in Iraq during the coming year will be badly flawed. Even a talented and energetic people cannot emerge from the darkness of totalitarianism overnight. To ensure success in Iraq, the United States needs to think in terms of multiple generations and decades of sustained effort.

My problem is the logic on which this assertion rests. Metz begins his column with the assertion that

From childhood, Americans are taught the importance of compromise and consensus, of "playing by the rules" and of individual initiative. These are traits that form the foundation of our political and economic system.

Iraqis at this time do not have these basic traits and ideals. To survive in a repressive, pathological system, they've developed a very different set of behaviors, attitudes, values and perceptions, all of which are unsuited to open government and to success in a globalized economy.

If that is so, why were the Poles, Hungarians and Czechs able to establish democracy almost immediately after their liberation from Soviet rule? Clearly, many of the post-Soviet states failed to make the transition to democracy or have found themselves trapped in deeply flawed democratic orders. Thus, what seems to matter more than a history of totalitarianism is the context within which it takes place.

On the one hand, Iraq is far worse off neither it nor its neighbors has a history of democracy (although Iran may have a future). On the other hand, a massive American presence and global interest in Iraq favor democratic reform.

Regardless of such objections, Metz has good recommendations for how to address the probable flaws of Iraqi democracy:

Americans must help Iraq develop a cadre of leaders dedicated to democracy and a free-market economy, and equipped with the skills to manage them. This is a long-term prospect; a short tutorial here and there will not suffice. To make it happen, the United States should immediately fund tens of thousands of scholarships and internships for young Iraqis to come to America and should encourage other Western nations to do the same in their countries...

[Also], the United States must provide constant life support while the new cadre of democratic leaders assumes power. This will include helping Iraq avoid obvious dangers such as foreign intervention, fragmentation, civil war or a takeover by a dictator, but also more subtle risks such as the emergence of a de facto dictator who attains power through the democratic system, or backroom dominance by organized crime.

The United States must be steadfast in its support of Iraq's democrats, even those who aren't particularly pliable. Indeed, we cannot expect that an Iraqi democratic leader will be a supplicant of the United States, always echoing Washington's position. To be a democrat must be enough to merit support.

Exactly. Given Metz's clear commitment to building democracy in Iraq, it really doesn't matter if we have different opinons about the legacy of totalitarianism. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 6:57 PM by Patrick Belton  

WE ARE WITH YOU. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:02 AM by David Adesnik  

FINALLY, SOMETHING USEFUL IN THE GUARDIAN: Test your knowledge of The Simpsons. I got 10 out of 10. Kevin Drum got 8 out of 10. But the real quesiton is, what's the threshhold for qualifying as a total geek? (Spinal Tap's answer: 11.) (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:51 PM by David Adesnik  

THE UNEMPLOYMENT PARADOX: Angry Bear has some comments on the perplexing nature of unemployment statistics. Kevin Drum also points out that the disability rolls have risen sharply in recent years, suggesting that unemployment is being hidden by other forms of compensation. In short, this may well be a jobless recovery. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:45 PM by David Adesnik  

THAT LEGENDARY CONSERVATIVE RESTRAINT: CalPundit praises the right-wing of the blogosphere for its moderate reaction to the non-news that blister gas shells have been found in Iraq. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:42 PM by David Adesnik  

I WANT NUMBERS! Has anyone else noticed that the NYT no longer tells you how many American soldiers have died in combat during the occupation? Instead, we only get the total number of military fatalities since the start of the war, including non-combat deaths.

It's hard to know what brought about the change. On the one hand, it's nice not to have the press obsessively measuring American success or failure in terms of the body count. After all, wars are often won by spending lives to achieve strategic objectives. On the other hand, focusing on total fatalities allows the NYT and others to raise the death toll to almost 500 while avoiding the distinction between those lost to hostile fire and those lost to accidents.

Well, if you're interested in finding out for yourself what's going on, the place to turn (as always) is Lunaville, which is still running an up-to-date casualty count that analyzes American losses from a number of different perspectives. As is fairly well known, US combat fatalities doubled from October to Novermber but fell by half in December, returning to the original figure of about 40. What I didn't know was that there were 422 combat casualties in October, 332 in November and 244 in December (plus 73 in early January).

Thanks to Lunaville, you can also break down casualties by rank, location, week or even specific type of death, e.g. firefight vs. roadside bomb. Remember, knowledge is power. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:23 PM by David Adesnik  

BEIJING TO HONG KONG: BACDAFUCUP! China's central government has made it clear to the people of Hong Kong that Beijing will decide whether Hong Kong gets to hold truly democratic elections in 2007. This presents a tough question for Hong Kong's reformers: should they antagonize the central government by calling on the people to take to the streets, or should they work things out behind closed doors?

While nothing would warm my heart more than 1 or 2 or even 3 million Hong Kong citizens taking to the streets, the time may not yet be ripe for that sort of power play. (Besides, I need some more time to save up for airplane tickets so I can join the protests.) Let's see what negotiations with the CCP can bring. The people of Hong Kong have already made their wishes known, so Beijing may have to offer concessions in private in order to avoid losing face in public. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:08 PM by David Adesnik  

FULL OF SHI'ITE: It is time for a creative American response to the ethnic politics of post-war Iraq. Today we learn that Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani refuses to back down from his demands for national elections -- both for the interim assembly and in order to approve the constitution.

According to American sources, the CPA is moving forward with its plans for "caucus-stlye" indirect elections to the interim assembly. (If these are like the caucuses in Iowa, Iraq is headed for trouble.) As for the constitution, only the American-selected Governing Council will have a say in its ratification.

The supposed cause of the US-Shi'ite tension is the expectation that Iraq's Shi'ite majority will use its numerical strength to turn all other Iraqis into second class citizens or even establish an Islamic state similar to the one in neighboring Iran. Yet as I've complained before, such fears are the product of ignorance and bad journalism. Story after story talks about a potential Shi'ite threat to democracy, but never tells bothers to find out what Shi'ites actually want. Take the following quote from today's WaPo for example:

Sistani insisted, as he has since November, on direct elections this year that would give the country's majority Shiite population a chance to flex its electoral muscle.

Now that's just misleading. Sistani has never said that the purpose of elections is to demonstrate Shi'ite strength. Rather, he has made the very fair point that "one (wo)man, one vote" applies just as much to Iraqis as it does to Americans. Unless there is good reason to think Sistani is hiding his authoritarian plans behind a democratic facade, no responsible newspaper should describe his intentions the way the WaPo does.

I've suggested before that the United States can probe the seriousness of the Shi'ite commitment to democracy by

hammering away at a similar point when talking to the Shi'ite leadership: The more of a commitment that you show to democracy as an institution, the faster we can transfer power to an elected government in which your representatives will have a majority.

Now let me make a more specific suggestion. In order to address concerns about potential Shi'ite oppression of Kurds and Sunnis, the United States should ask Ayatollah Sistani to public endorse constitutional protection of minority rights.

Moreover, the US might offer to hold a referendum on the constitution, provided that a majority of each of major ethnic group would have to vote in favor of ratification in order for it to pass. Alternately, we might suggest an American style ratification process in which 2/3 of all Iraqi provinces must ratify the new constitution in order for it to come into force. This would have the advantage of eliminating any explicit reference to ethnicity in the voting process while ensuring that a Southern-based Shi'ite majority could not force a one-sided constitution onto the rest of Iraq.

But these are suggestions. There are many different ways to design a constitution that protects minority rights. And there are a good number of constitutional lawyers and scholars who can suggest how. What matters above all is that the US take the initiative to ensure that there is a popular and democratic transition to sovereignty in occupied Iraq. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 1:54 AM by David Adesnik  

MISQUOTED? The NYT's new "public editor", i.e. ombudsman, explains how President Bush accidentally became an advocate of a constitutional ban on gay marriage. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 1:36 AM by David Adesnik  

REAGANESQUE? Ex-Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill is charging that George W. is disengaged, ignorant and driven by short-term partisan interests. Is this just sour grapes, or a genuine look through the grapevine? It's hard to say. O'Neill is a notorious for talking first and asking questions later, but also known for being honest.

What I thought was really interesting was that O'Neill

offered up 19,000 documents, including private White House transcripts and personal notes for the book "The Price of Loyalty: George W. Bush, the White House, and the Education of Paul O'Neill."

It's a polisci dissertation waiting to be written! (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 1:27 AM by David Adesnik  

WHO LET THE OPTIMIST IN THE BUILDING? Eric Schmitt seems decisively committed to up-ending all of his NYT colleagues' bad news stories about Iraq. Today he reports that

Conversations with scores of soldiers over the past four weeks revealed that morale among most soldiers is fairly high, largely because most are in the final months of their tours or have just arrived. Re-enlistment rates are up in many units, helped no doubt by tax-free bonuses of up to $10,000.

Two things: First, I assume that these "scores of soldiers" are the same ones Schmitt mentioned last week. Second, what happened to our manpower crisis in Iraq? You know, 'Iraqification', and all that. Furthermore, if there is no crisis at the moment, is anyone covering our efforts to train new Iraqi security forces? Are we still rushing fresh recruits into uniform to make it look like we have a transition strategy? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 1:07 AM by David Adesnik  

TALKING TURKEY: Leaving aside a few outlandish comments, Tom Friedman has a first-rate column today on religious tolerance in Turkey. For example, this is almost unbelievable:

I happened to be in Istanbul when the street outside one of the two synagogues that were suicide-bombed on Nov. 15 was reopened. Three things struck me: First, the chief rabbi of Turkey appeared at the ceremony, hand in hand with the top Muslim cleric of Istanbul and the local mayor, while crowds in the street threw red carnations on them. Second, the Turkish leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who comes from an Islamist party, paid a visit to the chief rabbi — the first time a Turkish prime minister had ever called on the chief rabbi. Third, and most revealing, was the statement made by the father of one of the Turkish suicide bombers who hit the synagogues.

"We are a respectful family who love our nation, flag and the Koran," the grieving father, Sefik Elaltuntas, told the Zaman newspaper. "But we cannot understand why this child had done the thing he had done . . . First, let us meet with the chief rabbi of our Jewish brothers. Let me hug him. Let me kiss his hands and flowing robe. Let me apologize in the name of my son and offer my condolences for the deaths. . . . We will be damned if we do not reconcile with them."

The same newspaper also carried a quote from Cemil Cicek, the Turkish government spokesman, who said: "The Islamic world should take stringent measures against terrorism without any `buts' or `howevers.' "

There is a message here: Context matters. Turkish politicians are not intimidated by religious fundamentalists, because — unlike too many Arab politicians — they have their own legitimacy that comes from being democratically elected.

Exactly. (It's amazing what happens when you research Islam instead of fashion.) (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 1:02 AM by David Adesnik  

OH, THE IRONY: Maureen Dowd devotes an entire column to politicians' sweaters but still has the chutzpah to write "It's discouraging to see presidential campaigns succumb to the makeover culture."

NB: According to Dictionary.com,

The words ironic, irony, and ironically are sometimes used of events and circumstances that might better be described as simply “coincidental” or “improbable,” in that they suggest no particular lessons about human vanity or folly. Thus 78 percent of the Usage Panel rejects the use of ironically in the sentence In 1969 Susie moved from Ithaca to California where she met her husband-to-be, who, ironically, also came from upstate New York. Some Panelists noted that this particular usage might be acceptable if Susie had in fact moved to California in order to find a husband, in which case the story could be taken as exemplifying the folly of supposing that we can know what fate has in store for us. By contrast, 73 percent accepted the sentence Ironically, even as the government was fulminating against American policy, American jeans and videocassettes were the hottest items in the stalls of the market, where the incongruity can be seen as an example of human inconsistency.

Who knew the dictionary was so patriotic? (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:51 AM by David Adesnik  

FROM WELFARE TO A THREE-STAR COMMAND: John Burns profiles Ricardo Sanchez, field commander of coalition forces in Iraq. Sanchez is a great subject and Burns does a great job profiling him. But what do you expect of our #1 correspondent in Iraq? (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:41 AM by David Adesnik  

1,000,000 HITS: According to Extreme Tracking, which OxBlog started using in late October 2002, we passed the 1,000,000 unique daily visitor mark on New Year's Eve. Of course, our "real" one millionth hit came earlier, but I think this is a milestone nonetheless. And we owe it all to you, our readers. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:30 AM by David Adesnik  

LOX VS. NOVA: Gary explains the difference. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:30 AM by David Adesnik  

GET YOUR STARBUCKS VISA CARD! No, this isn't a joke. You can actually earn "Duetto Dollars" with every purchase. No question, this is a major landmark in yuppie frivolousness. I'm just waiting for someone to pay his or her rent with a Starbucks Visa so that they can get a couple of free Frappuccinos each month. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 10:25 PM by David Adesnik  

"SAY SOMETHING FUNNY" is a new feature in The Onion. In it, comedians have 250 words to make the reader laugh. Here's Weird Al Yankovic's 250:

Make people laugh? Geez, that's a lot of pressure. Why are comics always put on the spot like this? You wouldn't go up to Meryl Streep and say, "Make me cry!" You wouldn't go up to French philosopher Jean-François Lyotard and say, "Make me cognizant of the impact postmodernity has had on the human condition!" You just wouldn't.

Besides, humor is too subjective. For instance, I would think it's hilarious if Ben Affleck were eviscerated by peacocks. But would Ben think it's funny? Most likely not. See what I mean?

Plus, if you want to be really funny... well, you just can't do it in 250 words. Because humor needs to build. You need a little subtext. I mean, for crying out loud, Tolstoy's War And Peace doesn't even start to get funny until around page 712.

And who do you people think you are, anyway? You think you can just snap your fingers, and I'm going to be funny... on demand? Look, I am not your monkey boy!

I'm sorry. It's just that I generally resist doing anything that requires, you know, actual effort on my part. But I guess being funny is a noble quest, so I'll give it everything I've got. I'll give 100 percent. But you know what I won't do? Give 110 percent. You know why? Because that's logically impossible. And as much as I love The Onion, I refuse to break the laws of physics for it.

Okay, so... Rush Limbaugh and a dwarf walk into a bar...

Whoops, that's 250 words. Sorry.

Hehehe. Eviscerated by peacocks. Hehehe. Monkey boy. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 4:26 PM by David Adesnik  

HE'S OUR MAN IN 2004: Five TNR writers make the case for each of their favorite candidates. The editors picked out Senator Joe for their official endorsement. A solid choice. Yet as Matt Yglesias observes: "This doesn't strike me as the best way to stay relevant."

The case for Howard Dean is made by Jonathan Cohn. After reading his column, I was actually persuaded that Dean would make a very good......Governor of Vermont.

Dean actually has a pretty impressive record of combining social reform and fiscal discipline. So how about promoting him to governor of a larger state? It's too late for California, but I wouldn't mind him here in Massachusetts or back home in New York. For some real fun, let's nominate Dean for governor of Texas!

Cohn is on somewhat weaker ground when it comes to foreign policy, where he makes the case for Dean by adopting the candidate's own favorite tactic of demonizing Bush. As Cohn writes, Dean's pronouncements on foreign policy fall...seem radical only if the policies of the Bush administration count as mainstream, which they aren't.In light of majority support for the invasion of Iraq -- Bush's most controversial foreign policy initiative -- it's hard to make the case that his policies are outside the mainstream. To be fair, the extreme unilateralist instincts of a Cheney or a Rumsfeld are definitely to the right even of a lot of Republicans. But for all the provocative talk, it was the Colin Powell approach that won out.

What Cohn never gets around to addressing are Dean's outside the mainstream instincts on foreign policy, such as his famous comment on Saddam's fall supposedly being a good thing. Nor does Cohn talk about Dean's lukewarm and fading support for the reconstruction.

Even if Cohn is right that Dean's position on fighting terrorism is actually quite moderate, so what? He presents himself as a leftist critic, his supporters are to the left of the Democratic mainstream and he constantly sets himself for a beating in the fall by making outlandish gaffes about foreign policy. The Democrats can do better.

Moving on, Michael Crowley makes the case for Richard Gephardt. After reading it, I was thoroughly persuaded that Gephardt would make an excellent Minority Leader (or Speaker, in the event that there is a Democratic majority in the House.) Yet as a candidate, Gephardt has been making exactly the sort of extravagant promises any experienced House leader knows to be impracticable.

Michelle Cottle has the honor of making the case for John Edwards. Seems like a good guy. So why doesn't anyone actually want to vote for him?

Finally, we get to Wesley Clark. (Yes, I'm sure you're all thinking "What about John Kerry?" I guess no one at TNR takes him seriously.) While OxBlog has been far from kind to Wes Clark, there are some good things to say about him beyond the fact that victorious generals make good candidates. Peter Scobelic writes that

All the talk about how Clark's biography makes him electable has overwhelmed the more important point: It would also make him a good president. In the last decade, the specter of genocide arose twice in the Balkans; both times, Clark was instrumental in beating it back despite tepid support among political and military elites.

While it may be hard to pin Clark down on what exactly he believes about the war in Iraq or the role of the United Nations, his heroic role in the Balkans demonstrates that he understands the imperative of using American power to promote democratic ideals.

Moreover, he has proven himself capable of working productively with our European allies. While there wasn't much to be said for the French or German positions during the whole Iraq debate, things certainly would have gone better if the Bush administration knew how to reach out to them a little more.

Not that Chirac or Schroeder would've gone along with invasion necessarily, but at least there would've been a lot less criticism on the homefront about how our reckless cowboy President was wrecking our most important alliances.

That's all folks. On behalf of TNR, OxBlog apologizes to Sharpton, Moseley-Braun and Kucinich for not treating them as serious candidates. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 3:31 PM by Patrick Belton  

RATING THE PROSPECTS FOR IRAQI DEMOCRACY: Writing in the pages of the Journal of Democracy, Iraqi-born academic Adeed Dawisha favorably assesses the prospects for democracy in Iraq. (Incidentally, here's a recent piece on Adeed from the Cincinnati Enquirer.)

Of the encouraging signs Adeed records, here are two of the more notable:

Without a doubt, the mushrooming of local self-government councils has been one of the major success stories of the occupation. Even those councils that have not been elected have been selected through peaceful and relatively (or even impressively) consensual means, in more than a few cases with initial advice and assistance from coalition military officers, and are providing scope for unprecedented amounts of open debate.

and, a bit below,

the most encouraging sign for the long haul is the sheer frequency with which Iraqis are using such key democratic terms as elections, parliament, human rights, press freedom, minority rights, and the like as debates over the country's future proceed.

He also objects to the phrase "the Iraqi resistance" (which seems most common in outlets with a clear ideological slant) to refer to the perpetrators of attacks against the US and the Iraqi people. Such a categorization, he writes, "whether purposely or inadvertently, creates an impression of a universal phenomenon supported by most Iraqis. Nothing could be further from the truth." In particular, 75 percent of attacks have taken place in Sunni triangle towns containing about 6 percent of Iraq's population.

The piece is well worth a read. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 2:16 PM by Patrick Belton  

MORE BAD JOKES FOR A GOOD NEW YEAR: Ask our readers for bad jokes, and they'll respond in droves. Here are a few of the best (or the worst):

Q: Why did the monkey fall out of the tree?  A: Because it was dead.

Q: Where do you find a turtle with no legs? A: Right where you left him.

Q: What do you call a turtle with no legs? A: It doesn't matter, he won't come.

Q: What do you call a cow with two legs? A: Lean beef.

Q: What do you call a cow with no legs? A: Ground beef.

And some jokes from the New York bar: A ham sandwich walks into a bar. The bartender looks at it and says, "Sorry, we don't serve food here."

Shortly after, a crocodile walks into the bar and orders a shot of scotch. The bartender asks him, "How's everything going?" To which the croc answers, "fine". The bartender then asks, "How's the wife?" "Fine." "The kids?" "Fine." So the bartender says, "So why the long face?"

A few minutes later, a bear walks into the bar, puts up his feet on a stool, and orders a beer. The bartender asks, "How's everything going?" The bear says, "well...umm....fine". The bartender then asks, "why the long paws?"

 From our cultural correspondent: A number of years ago, the Seattle Symphony was performing Beethoven's Ninth under the baton of Milton Katims. At this point you must understand two things: first, there's a long segment in this symphony where the bass violins don't have a single note to play. Not a single note for page after page. And second: there used to be a tavern called Dez's 400 right across the street from the Seattle Opera house, rather favored by local musicians.   It had been decided that during this performance, after the bass players had played their parts in the opening of the Ninth, they were to quietly lay down their instruments and leave the stage rather than sit on their stools looking and feeling silly for 20 minutes. Well, once they got back stage, someone suggested that they trot across the street and quaff a few brews. After they had downed the first couple rounds, one musician said, "Shouldn't we be getting back? It would be awfully embarrassing if we were late." Another, presumably the one who suggested this excursion in the first place, replied - "Oh, I anticipated we could use a little more time, so I tied a string around the last pages of the conductor's score. When he gets down there, Milton is going to have to slow the tempo way down while he waves the baton with one hand and fumbles with the string with the other."   So the group had another round and finally returned to the Opera House, a little tipsy by now. However, as they came back on stage, one look at their conductor's face told them they were is serious trouble. Katims was furious! And why not? After all...   It was the bottom of the Ninth, the score was tied, and the basses were loaded.

Our friend Jacob Remes takes responsibility for the "brown and sticky" joke from our last post and and offers another from his incomparable stores: Q: Why do anarchists only drink herbal tea? A: Because they don't believe in proper tea.

And finally, one from the lovely and talented Sasha Castel: Q: Why do the French only make their omelettes with one egg? A: Because "un oeuf" is enough. (Okay, at first I didn't get it either, until a lesser philistine pointed out that "un oeuf" is pronounced "enough.")

Also, while we're speaking about our readers (behind your backs - except for the fact that you're our readers, and so you have a pretty good chance of reading this....), our friend Simon Rodberg from Dublin points out this piece on personals ads in the LRB and NYRB - a subject we've humorously posted on at length (just scroll down to 1:19 pm on Wednesday). (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 2:03 PM by Patrick Belton  

MOST CONTEMPORARY AMERICANS ARE WIMPS OR BARBARIANS, according to Terrence Moore. This, however, doesn't include our readers. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:04 AM by David Adesnik  

SAVAGE LOVE FOR OXBLOG: Dan Savage writes

thanks for suggesting the NYT hire my ass. it's my dream gig, david.

of course, they would have to let me keep writing my sex advice column on the side. that's where the real money is.

love your site.

xo
dan

In a second e-mail entitled "oh, but my fashion sense?", Dan adds

don't got none. my boyfriend dresses me.

thanks again,
dan

(0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:58 PM by David Adesnik  

DON'T UNDERESTIMATE THE INDIANS: Here are two responses to my post from yesterday. The first is from DS:

In your recent post "THE INDIAN COMPUTER GEEK MEME" you write:

"Today, job security comes from acquiring knowledge, not building a relationship with a single firm. This model isn't perfect, but it's still damn good."

If only this were true! You still apparently believe the Clinton administration's mantra about knowledge workers. Even the members of the former administration have abandoned their claims: knowledge workers' jobs are the most portable, the ones being exported, and the ones most subject to shrinking wages due to competition whether from offshore outsourcing or importation of cheaper workers from overseas. The $150,000 programmer is largely a thing of the past-- the same guys are making $80,000 or even $50,000 now.

In recent quarters most of the growth both in numbers of jobs and wages have been in relatively non-portable, less-subject-to-foreign-competition sectors like government and health care. Both areas are secure not due to being knowledge workers but due to protection. Health care is one of the most regulated of all fields e.g. licensing, restrictions on telemedicine, etc. And that's where the growth is. Coincidence? Perhaps.

In response to the prediction that the computer industry will lead the field in job growth, JH writes that

I wouldn't put too much faith in those predictions.

It looks like they are largely based on data gathered before the bubble burst, and also probably don't take the current outsourcing boom into account. Nor does it seem to take the length of the jobless recovery period into account.

There are salary numbers from 2001, but the outlook portion refers to 2000, suggesting to me that this part of the report was drawn up in 2000 or earlier.

It wouldn't exactly be the first time that real-world conditions changed far faster than the government could respond...

This issue is pretty far outside my area of expertise, so I don't have a compelling counterargument to offer. In other words, I take DS and JH's comments very seriously. Even so, I'm going to hold on to my position for the moment. My gut says that India can't turn out enough programmers to satisfy a growing computer industry both at home and in the United States.

What I expect to see is a situation somewhat similar to the one in the manufacturing sector, where less demanding tasks are outsourced while cutting edge work is reserved for advanced facilities (with well-paid workers) in the US, Europe and Japan. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:44 PM by David Adesnik  

THE FIGHT IS FOR DEMOCRACY: George Packer wants liberal Democrats to have a tough but principled foreign policy that can go head-to-head with the Bush administration's aggressive call for moral clarity. To that end, Packer has put together a collection of essays by prominent liberal thinkers whose purpose is to lay out a compelling vision that can command the support of a majority of the American electorate.

As someone who shares Packer's goal, I was very excited to get a copy of his book as a gift just a few days ago. So far, I have read the first three essays out of the ten that are in the book. They range from thoughtful to the strident. Yet even the better ones expose -- often unintentionally -- how desperate and hopeless the Democrats have become.

The first essay in the book is Packer's introduction. On page one, it eloquently captures the sense of mission that pervaded American life in the first days after September 11th. On the day of the attacks, an investment banker

...wandered through the smoke and confusion of Lower Manhattan until he found himself in a church in Greenwich Village. Alone at the altar, covered in ash and dust, he began to shake and sob. Feeling a hand on his shoulder, he looked up. It was a policeman.

"Don't worry," the cop said, "you're in shock."

"I'm not in shock," the investment banker answered. "I like this state. I've never been more cognizant in my life."

Packer knows that this sort of intense awareness is the foundation on which a liberal internationalist foreign policy can be built. Yet this awareness faded after September 11th. With some justification, Packer attributes this dulling of the senses to the President's insistence that Americans must resist terrorism by refusing to let it interrupt their daily lives. Instead, what should have come from the White House was a call to arms in the name global democracy.

After making this solid point, Packer's introduction begins to wander. He rails against Americans' selfishness and says that American democracy has fallen into decay. His tone also makes clear that this volume essays is intended only for Democratic partisans. He tells us that "Conservatives today have no concept of the public good. They see Americans as investors and consumers, not citizens." (p. 9)

Packer tells us that liberal internationalists should fight for democracy, but finds it hard to elaborate how. He is more specific, however, about what liberals must abandon:

The relcutance to make judgments, the finely ironic habits of thought, the reflexive contempt for patriotism, the suspicion of uniforms and military qualities, the sentimentality about oppressed peoples, the irresponsibility about hard choices, the embarrassment with phrases like "democratic values" and "Western civilization" -- the softheadedness into which liberalism sank after the 1960s seems as useless today as isolationism in 1941 or compromise in 1861."

After Packer's jarring condemnation of his fellow liberal travelers, Michael Tomasky's essay is especially disturbing. Here is someone who clearly hasn't listened to a word that Packer has said. While its stated objective is to find a solid middle ground "between Cheney and Chomsky", the essay mostly provides vitriolic attacks on a strawman version of Republican foreign policy. Only its final pages does it provide a truncated agenda for American policy that has clearly suffered from its author's preoccupation with denouncing the Vice-President.

According to Tomasky, "What once represented the wish list of the right-most fringe of respectable opinion is now the policy of this country. It is a prescription for empire." (p. 40)The basis for the statement is a history of the Bush administration's National Security Strategy which shows that Cheney and Wolfowitz were aggressive unilateralists back in 1992, long before September 11th made it acceptable to talk about pre-emptive warfare.

Fair enough. But what does this have to do with 'empire'? Despite his occasional condemnations of Noam Chomsky and the far left, Tomasky adopts their vocabularly almost effortlessly. Does America seek to rule foreign nations? Does it make war for the sake of economic gain? Tomasky never says. Instead, he equates unilateralism with empire.

This kind of semantic issue matters because Tomasky's new Democratic foreign policy rests on its opposition to this sort of imperialism. As the author explains,

America is not an empire, it is a democracy. A democracy leads the world, but it does not seek to rule it. The Cheneyites want to rule the world. (p. 41)

I, for one, wish the Cheneyites wanted to rule the world, because if they did they might show a little more enthusiasm for the President's stated objective of rebuilding Iraq and Afghanistan.

For the moment, however, let us grant that democratic anti-imperialism can serve as the basis of a new American foreign policy. What would such a foreign policy entail? Democracy promotion, of course. But what's that? For starters, "a massive aid package for the Arab world...tied to specific and measurable democratic reforms." That sounds nice. But will oil-rich dictatorships take American cash in exchange for giving up their hold on power? Besides, if Democrats are hesitant to support spending for the reconstruction of Iraq, why would they send massive amounts of aid to countries we don't occupy?

Another question Tomasky avoids is the use of force. As he informs us, there was a liberal case to be made for invading Iraq. Yet Tomasky doesn't say whether he himself would've supported the invasion on those grounds (presuming President Bush had done so). And if we can impose regime change on Iraq, why don't we impose it on other dictatorships as well? How about starting with dictatorships that don't sit on top of 10% of the world's oil reserves?

As a passionate advocate of democracy promotion, I know from experience that those questions are the first ones that critics (especially liberal ones) ask anytime one suggests that democracy promotion should be the foundation stone of American foreign policy. Yet Tomasky ignores them entirely. Then again, why bother? If all Dick Cheney stands for is empire, then talking about democracy should be enough to make the Democrats different.

The third essay in Packer's book is a discussion of humanitarian intervention by Laura Secor. Inspired by the humanitarian intevention in Kosovo, Secor clearly believes that American power should be used to promote democracy and human rights (even if diplomacy should be the first resort and violence the last). Thus the challenge Secor faces is how to differentiate her foreign policy from the one already advocated by neo-conservatives both in and outside the Bush administration.

In contrast to Tomasky, Secor is honest enough to admit that neo-conservatives are sincere in the call for a principled foriegn policy. Her only criticism of them is that they are too idealistic. As Secor explains,

Where liberal idealists tend to believe that the given the extent of its power, the United States must strive to promote the good, conservative idealists presume that in promoting itself , the United States does promote the good

In short, Secor is calling for a healthy dose of liberal guilt and self-flagellation. While I myself agree that neo-conservatives often come uncomfortably close to a "my country, right or wrong" approach, tempering their missionary zeal with self-criticism hardly constitutes a distinctive Democratic foreign policy. At best, it is a slight modification whose slightness emphasizes how little Democrats have to add to what neo-conservatives are already saying.

What, then, are the Democrats to do? Perhaps the next seven essays in Packer's book will answer that question. In the meantime, the Democrats best hope is to match the neo-conservatives ideal for ideal, criticizing the Bush Administration when it fails to live up to its own rhetoric.

As I noted on Sunday, Republicans are no less divided than Democrats when it comes to foreign policy. If the Democrats are patient enough, they can build up their credibility in the short-term, then attack Republicans from an unassailable idealistic perch once the Republican realists take back control of American foreign policy.

(0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 10:12 AM by Patrick Belton  

THUCYDIDES, SCHMUCYDIDES: Daniel Mendelssohn adds his take to Donald Kagan's and Victor Hanson's comments on this great historian of Athens. (hat tip to our friend Vishal Arya) Also, Rachel chimed into this discussion a bit back on Nathan Hale. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 8:35 AM by Patrick Belton  

CFR releases a backgrounder on the new Afghan constitution. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 8:08 AM by Patrick Belton  

MORE ON ARAB TRANSLATION: The Christian Science Monitor fronts a piece this morning on Syrian author and publisher Ammar Abdulhamid, who has founded a nonprofit translation firm called Dar Emar in an attempt to increase the quantity of Western publications translated into Arabic.

Abdulhamid has got his work cut out for him: Spain translates in a single year as large a quantity of written work as the Arab world has translated in the past millennium, according to the UN's second annual Arab Human Development Report published last autumn.

And incidentally, the combined GDP of the Arab world is less than that of - Spain.

Placed in comparison with historic Islamic civilization's rich history of translation and absorption of intellectual currents from Western and other Eastern cultures, the current Arab world pales. And brain drain has been substantial: 15,000 medical doctors left the Arab world from 1998 to 2000, and in 1995-96 alone, 25 percent of all graduates from Arab universities holding B.A. degrees emigrated, as this column by Thomas Friedman points out. The number of scientists and engineers working in research and development in the Arab world is 371 per million citizens, compared with a global average of 979 per million. And the Arab world, representing 5 percent of the population of the world, produces only slightly over 1 percent of its books - though it produces triple the global average of religious publications.

Clearly stimulating intellectual life and discovery within the region - something in which Arab emigres residing in the West have shown astounding success - is one of the first key steps for the Arab world to take in becoming free, democratic, and prosperous. And Abdulhamid's work may yet figure for historians yet to be born as one of the first movers of a second Arab renaissance. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 9:31 PM by David Adesnik  

REPLACE DOWD WITH A GAY MAN: The NYT seems to have one columnist slot reserved for a sassy, good-looking writer with great fashion sense and a wicked sense of humor. So why not Dan Savage?

He's not just funny, he's a serious political writer willing to do investigative reporting.

Plus, Savage wouldn't throw off the political balance on the op-ed page because he's actually quite liberal. (Although he is willing to take the NYT to task for journalistic bias.)

Bill Keller, are you listening? (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 9:19 PM by Patrick Belton  

CAROTHERS ON ARAB DEMOCRACY: Tom Carothers gives a fair and balanced assessment of the Bush's administration's strategy of democracy promotion for the Arab world in the current issue of Current History. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 9:14 PM by David Adesnik  

THE INDIAN COMPUTER GEEK MEME: In honor of the 10th anniversary of NAFTA, the NYT turned over yesterday's op-ed page to eloquent denunciations of free trade.

First up is Nobel Prize winner Joseph Stiglitz's morose meditation on US-Mexican trade relations. Stiglitz notes that

Growth in Mexico over the past 10 years has been a bleak 1 percent on a per capita basis — better than in much of the rest of Latin America, but far poorer than earlier in the century.

All in all, Stiglitz's main objection to NAFTA seems to be that it wasn't the silver bullet of Mexican economic growth. He even complains that US-Mexican trade isn't free enough because of US agricultural subsidies that hurt Mexican farmers. Not exactly an argument against NAFTA, is it Dr. Stiglitz?

The second anti-free trade column comes from NY Sen. Charles Schumer and former Reagan Treasury official Paul Roberts. Their column begins with what iis supposed to be a big, scary anecdote:

Over the next three years, a major New York securities firm plans to replace its team of 800 American software engineers, who each earns about $150,000 per year, with an equally competent team in India earning an average of only $20,000.

An almost identical story about high tech outsourcing was the subject of a Bob Herbert column just a few weeks ago. As such, I think it's fair to say that what we are dealing with here is a "meme". It's more than a concept or an idea. It's a convtroversial claim packaged inside of a compelling anecdote that actually has very little substance to it.

The message of the Indian computer geek meme is that the benighted advocates of free trade

advised U.S. workers to adjust, to become better educated and skillful enough to thrive in a new world of employment, where technology and the ability to process information were crucial components.

Well, the workers whose jobs are now threatened at I.B.M. and similar companies across the U.S. are well educated and absolute whizzes at processing information. But they are nevertheless in danger of following the well-trodden path of their factory brethren to lower-wage work, or the unemployment line.

One objection to this argument is ethical. As Matt Yglesias points out,

Say we changed things around and more Americans made more money, more Indians made less money, and all people everywhere had to pay somewhat more for their software. How is that really better? Because it's better for Americans?...

Come to think of it, American software consumers have interests that count as well. So do the shareholders in US software companies. Why is protecting the salary levels of American geeks so overwhelmingly important?

But leaving that (very good) argument aside for the moment, consider the more important fact that the US computer industry is expanding by leaps and bounds. Consider this:

Eight of the 10 fastest-growing occupations between now and 2010 will be computer-related, according to new projections from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The sharpest increase is expected to occur among workers who design software programs or develop computer databases. This occupational group had 380,000 employees in 2000, a figure that is expected to double to 760,000 by 2010. That's an annual increase of 7.2 percent.

Just because the industry is growing by leaps and bounds doesn't mean that no one will get fired and that no jobs will be outsourced. In fact, firings and outsourcing are critical to the growth process.

To be sure, being fired or outsourced or downsized isn't a pleasant experience. But if there is tremendous demand for programmers, then $150,000-a-year programmers shouldn't have a hard time finding a new job.

In contrast, if a factory worker loses his or her job, that's probably it. Economies the world over (including China) are losing manufacturing jobs because of techonological advances.

Thus, the basic message of free-trade advocates is still right on target: acquire high-tech skills and you can expect to have a good job. Can you expect $150,000 per year? I don't know.

One thing you certainly shouldn't expect is security. Critics like Schumer and Herbert seem to be mired in an old-economy model of lifetime employment. (Which still seems to apply to senators and NYT columnists.) But in the information, skills are what matter.

Today, job security comes from acquiring knowledge, not building a relationship with a single firm. This model isn't perfect, but it's still damn good.

(0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 1:03 PM by Patrick Belton  

POLLS SHOW GOOD NEWS FOR BUSH, CLARK: CNN/Gallup show Bush's approval ratings improving, and Clark gaining ground on Dean in the pool of Democratic candidates. Bush's New Year's approval rating of 60 percent compares favorably with 56 percent for Carter in 1980 (before Carter's popularity had been worn down by the Iranian hostage crisis), 52 percent for Reagan in 1984, 46 percent for Bush in 1992, and 42 percent for Clinton in 1996. Clark, for his part, has pulled within five percentage points of Dean, whose last month's lead of 27-12 over Clark has narrowed to 24-20. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:28 PM by Patrick Belton  

A GOOD MAN STEPS DOWN: Lord Robertson, 10th Secretary General of Nato and my personal former boss, stepped down today as head of the Alliance. Coverage from AP and Northern Ireland press. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:10 PM by Patrick Belton  

BUSH TO PROPOSE AMNESTY TO UNDOCUMENTED WORKERS: This move, details of which are to be announced this afternoon, has the potential to be a very good thing both for US-Mexican relations and for bringing into the legal fold a population who are currently doing a great deal for America and their communities without the color or protection of law. NYT has more, and so do the Seattle Post, LAT, and SF Chronicle . (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 10:29 PM by David Adesnik  

THE PUNCH: On my way back from LA, I missed my flight and got stuck at the airport for six hours. Bored out of my mind, I decided to purchase a book from the limited selection available at the newsstand/candy store. (I would've bought a magazine, but the idea of paying three or four bucks for information that's usually available for free online really gets to me.)

Anyhow, the book I chose was The Punch, by John Feinstein. It is the story of "the fight that changed basketball forever." On December 9, 1977 one punch from Lakers' forward Kermit Washington fractured the skull of Rockets' All-Star Rudy Tomjanovich. Tomjanovich almost died.

It is hard to convey the brutal nature of that one punch to those who haven't seen it on film. While I can't remember exactly when I saw it, I'm guessing it was during the Knicks-Rockets championship series in 1994, when Tomjanovich was the Rockets' coach. While I am hardly an avid basketball fan, the viciousness of that one punch stayed in my mind. It provided a shocking contrast to the relative civility of NBA basketball in my time as a fan.

In the late 1970s, basketball was a far more violent game than it is today. In one season, more than 40 fights resulted in a player being thrown out of the game. And to get thrown out at that time, you had to get involved in a brawl, not just throw one punch. Before the 1977-1978 season, the NBA decided that it had to do something about its image by getting tough on violence.

The guinea pig for the experiment was Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, who shattered his own hand while punching an opposing player in the opening week of the season. Not long after Abdul-Jabbar returned from his suspension/injury, his teammate Washington sent Tomjanovich to the hospital. Unfortunately, Feinstein never tells us how that punch changed the NBA's attitude toward fighting. Instead, Feinstein becomes so fascinated by Washington's life story that all broader context for the story disappears.

That isn't necessarily a bad thing. Washington had remarkable experiences that deserve to be chronicled. It just isn't what Feinstein promised at the outset. But, hey, this is airport reading. The book is an easy-going page turner that will help you pass the time if you are stuck at an airport. It's a little expensive at $15, but that's what books cost.

If I were going to get all intellectual about it, I would say that Feinstein could have written a fascinating book about the interaction of race and athletics in American life. However, he seems to be a biographer by nature who gets fixated on individual men and women rather than exploring how society as a whole responds to their behavior.

There are brief mentions of how Washington's punch resulted in him receiving death threats, many of them inflected with racial epithets. When a black almost kills a white man anywhere in America, it is news. When a black man almost kills a white man with the cameras rolling, that is a major moment in American cultural life. Then again, that kind of thing is a little bit heavy going for when you're stuck in an aiport. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 9:29 PM by David Adesnik  

FLASHBACK TO 2003: I missed this Bob Kagan column while I was in California. Unlike most op-eds, it's still very relevant a month after the fact. And I wouldn't be surprised if certain people are still reading it this November. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 9:14 PM by David Adesnik  

PROTECT YOUR BAGEL! Ilyka Damen has some sharp words for all those who would defile the honor of a bagel. While I am no bagel vigilante, I certainly empathize with Ilyka's fury. (Link via Judith Weiss.) (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:31 AM by David Adesnik  

A SOLDIER'S WORDS FROM AFGHANISTAN: The following is a letter sent by an American officer in Afghanistan to his friends and family, including myself. It needs no commentary because it speaks for itself.

Orgun, Afghanistan
24 December 200[3]

Dear Friends and Family:

Happy Holidays! As you read this, I will no doubt be smoking a celebratory cigar with my brothers-in-arms. We are at the halfway point of our deployment; only 4-5 more months and we will be home at last. As the Grateful Dead so aptly said, “It has been a long, strange trip.” I will be feasting on Christmas with my friends and soldiers. As a special treat, the unit airlifted Starbucks frappucinos! Little things like that make a huge difference to morale here. One great thing about being deployed is that it brings a heightened appreciation of otherwise mundane objects. A mug of good hot chocolate, a few strands of Christmas lights, and a surprise shipment of O’Douls make home seem a little closer.

A brief summary of events over the last couple of months…

We spent our first two months in Afghanistan outside the large town of Gardez. As a relatively quiet sector, Gardez was a great place to train on new equipment and bond as a team. We played a lot of volleyball, entertained a host of VIPs, and enjoyed working with one of the Army’s newest concepts- a Provincial Reconstruction Team composed of Army engineers, civil affairs experts, and military police. I escorted them on a fantastic trip to Ghazni where the governor put us up at his opulent guesthouse. Sleeping in a real bed and using a private bathroom seemed like the height of luxury! During our stay there, General Schoomaker, General Meyers, and Christine Amanpour all made visits. Secretary Rumsfeld pinned my captain’s bars on me in September. After two wonderful months in Gardez making friends with interpreters, patrolling relatively safe villages, and administering veterinary care to unfriendly camels, my platoon flew to Shkin on September 26th.

Soon after arriving at what one Army spokesman called “the most evil place in Afghanistan,” my platoon was involved in the largest firefight since Operation Anaconda in March 2002. During a battle that raged intermittently for almost 12 hours, we destroyed close to 40 “anti-coalition militants,” but suffered one very painful American casualty. PFC [name deleted], a 19-year-old soldier in my platoon, died from sniper fire while cresting a hill near Lozano Ridge. Coping with the loss of one of our own was the toughest mission my platoon faced during the last 5 months. Men cited for their bravery in the fight were torn by guilt and self-doubt and many still suffer from nightmares. Fortunately for the platoon, we immediately returned to the front lines after a brief period of mourning. After a few weeks of relative calm, we had another big fight south of Shkin on October 25th. We lost no men in our platoon, but had several friendly casualties in a sister unit. Again, my men impressed me with their courage under fire and professional competence. I feel fortunate to have had the opportunity to see my men change over 9 months- watching them train last spring and then execute the same drills with deadly efficacy in combat. Leading my men in combat has been the most satisfying and challenging experience in my career.

The Army doesn’t like to keep its captains as platoon leaders and I was tagged in early November to become the Battalion Adjutant. I moved to a third firebase, at Orgun, to take over the human resources management for the task force’s 900 personnel. I now spend long hours proofreading award citations, managing finance problems, and assisting the Battalion Commander with officer evaluations and other special projects. I miss being with my men, but find a lot of satisfaction ensuring that the personnel system works for them. The office is certainly the most interesting one I’ve worked in- an old Soviet headquarters complete with bullet holes in the walls. It’s very gratifying to ensure that they receive awards for their actions under fire. I pinned medals on 16 of my men today and expect to pin several Bronze Stars for Valor in the near future.

I keep sane in the office by escaping to the gym to lift weights and to use the rowing machine I convinced Concept2 to donate to my platoon. Whenever I need a break from staff life, I can walk down to where my old platoon lives and hang out with them. I’m glad to have them as a family away from home. The food here is better than at Fort Drum and we are doing our part to sustain the bootleg DVD industry. I’ve been spending a lot of time learning Russian and Hindi and finishing the crate of books I brought with me from the states. I now have daily internet access and some phone use.

The sting of being extended an additional 90 days was made much more bearable by the stacks of letters and boxes I’ve received from all of you. I have been overwhelmed by the support you’ve given me during this deployment and hope to thank you all in person soon after returning home. Please keep writing and sending pictures- responding is one of my favorite distractions from work.

Until next time,
[name deleted]

(0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 10:21 PM by Patrick Belton  

BAD JOKES FOR A GOOD NEW YEAR: Q: Why did the bee begin wearing a yamulke? A: So he wouldn't be mistaken for a WASP.

Q: What's brown and sticky? A: A stick. (courtesy of friend JR...)

Q: Why can't a bicycle stand up? A: It is two tired.

Q: What are squares scared of? A: Vicious circles

First sodium atom: "Help, somebody has stolen one of my electrons." Second atom: "Are you sure?" First atom: "Yeah, I'm positive."

Please feel free to submit your favorites! We'll print the best (err, worst) here.... (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 10:15 PM by Patrick Belton  

THIS JUST IN FROM MARS: NASA releases a 3-d image of Mars's surface. Looking to the heavens always manages to inspire our deepest senses of wonder (and the converse: a Russian saying popular in the Soviet period was "Is there life on Mars?" "No, not there either"), and congratulations are in order to Nasa for having brought us to Mars, by the internet. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:57 PM by David Adesnik  

QUEER EYE FOR THE BLOG GUY: Pejman talks about his favorite reality show. Pejman insists that he doesn't need a Fab Five makeover. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:48 PM by David Adesnik  

EVIL CHARITY: Greg Djerejian defends humanitarian NGOs from Instapundit's attack. Greg has lots of other good posts up as well. Just keep on scrolling. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:17 PM by David Adesnik  

THE LAST "HAM"URAI: Watching Tom Cruise act is not a pleasant experience. But the problems with The Last Samurai have much more to do with the plot than the actors. As Mitch Webber sums it up:

Plot: Attractive American Army Captain, sick of killing Natives, soldier-of-fortunes himself out to the Japanese Emperor.  Gets captured by Samurai rebels, comes to love the way of the sword / way of the warrior / way of the Samurai / [supply your own 'way-of-the-...' cliche].

Resolution: Rebellion suppressed.  Everyone dies but white guy.  Returns to Japanese village to be with wife of man he killed.  Very plausible. 

Thoughts: Why is it that every Japanese character in American movies speaks only in platitudes and can't go a full sentence without using the word 'honor'?  Do the Japanese really talk like that?  I mean, even Native Americans usually aren't charicatured so thoughtlessly. 

The funny thing is that the movie tries so hard to be politically correct by highlighting American brutality and ignorance. Yet like so many well-meaning advocates of diversity (both cultural and ethnic), its director reduces the Japanese to being noble savages.

Still, the battle scenes are probably worth the price of the ticket. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:09 PM by David Adesnik  

CARNAL AMBIVALENCE: Dan Drezner is both encouraged and disappointed by the fact that professors don't have sex with their students more often. See Crescat for details. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 10:39 PM by David Adesnik  

MORALE ON THE RISE? Earlier this year, I was deeply worried by reports that our soldiers' morale was falling apart. But now Eric Schmitt reports that

American soldiers, from privates to generals, say they believe that their fight to restore security and stability in Iraq is winnable in the long run, but that an American military presence will be required for years to keep the country from falling into chaos.

In nearly 100 interviews and conversations in the last four weeks, soldiers across Iraq expressed a complex set of emotions and sentiments toward their rebuilding mission, now entering its ninth month...

Morale is generally high, but the guerrilla attacks that kill or maim soldiers have prompted many to endure their daily patrols by seeking refuge in dark humor. As one sergeant in the First Armored Division in Baghdad said recently, between drags on a cigarette, "Time flies when you think you're going to die."

It cannot be said that our soldiers enjoy the challenges of occupation. But who in their right mind would? Instead, our soldiers seems to have an admirably realistic belief that they must do what is right in spite of the cost. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 9:40 PM by David Adesnik  

CAN THE DEMS WIN ON NATIONAL SECURITY? That question is the subject of a long and ponderous cover story in this week's edition of the NYT Magazine. Although worth reading, the article never fully grasps why it is that the Democrats have an image problem when it comes to issues of war and peace. It instructive, however, to read what author James Traub has to say about John Kerry:

The Democrats seem trapped between two irreconcilable impulses, or litmus tests. This is especially obvious, and painful, with figures like John Kerry, who has tried to have it both ways. In the run-up to the war, Kerry harshly criticized President Bush for alienating our allies and then voted for the resolution authorizing war. Then he voted against the $87 billion appropriation, complaining that the president lacked a clear postwar plan. As Baghdad plunged into chaos and Dean worked his magic, Kerry began to sound more and more like an antiwar candidate. And then when Saddam Hussein was captured, Kerry criticized Dean for failing to acknowledge the full magnitude of the achievement. It's no wonder that Chris Matthews tied Kerry into a pretzel when he pressed him on ''Hardball'' to supply a ''yes or no answer'' on Iraq.

In short, Kerry's fence-sitting prevents him from sending a clear message to either hawks or doves. The same is true of all the other 'yes-but' candidates in the Democratic fold, namely Gephardt, Edwards and (sort of) Clark.

In an election where national security will be the first- or second-most important issue, voters will want to know what separates the Democratic challenger from the Republican incumbent. And having no clear answer is almost worse than being to the left of the mainstream.

To be a 'yes-but' candidate indicates both a lack of decisive leadership potential and a quiet admission that the Bush administration has basically gotten things right.

Which brings us to Howard Dean and Joseph Lieberman. If he had a real shot at the nomination, Senator Joe would have to hope for a fall campaign that centers on domestic issues, given that he offers no alternative to the Bush foreign policy. And the obvious question for Dean is whether 51% of Americans will embrace an anti-war stance so firm that it seems to grow out of a fear of American power.

In sum, each Democratic candidate -- no matter what his or her position on Iraq -- has a problem presenting a credible challenge to Bush. That is why national security is the Democrats' Achilles heel.

One objection to the argument laid out above is that 'national security' is not the same as 'Iraq'. As Traub points out

The consequences of unilateralism in Iraq dominate the debate. Yet if you talk to Democratic policy experts, Iraq rarely appears as the country's top national security priority. In ''An American Security Policy,'' a study ordered by Tom Daschle, the Senate minority leader, and written by a group that included top former Clinton aides like William Perry, the former defense secretary; Madeleine Albright, the former secretary of state; and Sandy Berger, the former national security adviser, Iraq appears as only the fourth of six major areas of concern. The first is ''The Loose Nukes Crisis in North Korea,'' and the second is the overall problem of weapons of mass destruction in Russia, Pakistan, Iran and elsewhere.

Before the war, one could have laid out a coherent rational for treating Iraq as a secondary concern. Yet in supporting the war, all of the yes-but candidates certified the President's decision to raise Iraq to the top of the agenda. More importantly, the overwhelming bulk of current anti-administration criticism focuses on Iraq. If it weren't important, why bother?

Thus, it is essentially unfair for the yes-but candidates to hold Howard Dean responsible for making Iraq the big issue in this campaign. Traub, however, does hold dean responsible. Consider the following:

''Dean made Iraq a political manhood test,'' laments Will Marshall, a well-known Democratic centrist and head of the Progressive Policy Institute. ''His conflation of anti-Bush sentiment and antiwar sentiment ratcheted the debate toward what has at least echoes of the old antiwar stance.'' By the time President Bush submitted his request for an $87 billion supplemental appropriation for Iraq and Afghanistan in September, the politics of the war inside the party had shifted drastically. Conventional wisdom had it that no candidate seen as pro-war could get a foothold among the highly liberal primary voters in New Hampshire and Iowa, even though polls found that Democrats in both states preferred a candidate who had approved of the war but criticized its conduct.

Yet if the polls favored the yes-but candidates, why was the 'no' candidate the only one able to generate widespread enthusiasm at the grassroots?

From where I stand, the best hope for the Democrats is the long term. As Traub notes, the Democrats' aspiration is to reclaim the tough-minded liberal internationalism of Harry S Truman and John F. Kennedy.

What he doesn't note is that for the moment, George W. Bush has done far more to advance the liberal internationalist cause than any of his critics. For example, what is the last time a Democratic candidate talked about the importance of human rights? Journalists often compare Dean to Carter, but they forget that Carter had the clear moral high ground vis-a-vis his Republican challenger.

What Dean can offer is multilateralism, a doctrine that subordinates moral concerns to the demand for consensus. In a certain sense, he is the true Kissingerian in this race.

Why then, you might ask, is there any hope that the Democrats can reclaim the internationalist mantle? Answer: because the Bush administration and the Republican party may never fully embrace it.

Neither Cheney nor Rumsfeld nor Powell nor Rice has demonstrated more than halting support for the President's apparent worldview. Only Paul Wolfowitz, a second-tier figure with an overgrown media profile, seems to share the President's views. Congressional Republicans don't seem to be much more interested.

But can the Democrats do any better? Probably not. They are at least as divided as Republicans. But the history is there. If my generation of Democrats can seize on that precedent, the opportunity will be there. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 9:14 PM by David Adesnik  

A LANDMARK FOR AFGHANISTAN: The constitutional convention in Kabul has produced one of the most enlightened founding documents in the Islamic world.

Still, two great challenges faces the Afghan people. First, control of much Afghan territory must still be wrested back from warlords, druglords and Taliban fighters. Second, the people of Afghanistan will have to resolve the conflict between secular and Islamic law that is embedded in the constitution.

The Afghans will not, of course, have been the first people to adopt a constitution that provides for the possibility of both great freedom and great repression. In Philadelphia, the shameful 3/5 compromise gave official sanction to the brutal degradation of millions and millions of dark-skinned Americans.

Perhaps that compromise was necessary to bring the United States into existence. Regardless, it became the cause of a bloodbath almost a century later. If the United States keeps that lesson in mind, perhaps it will give democratic forces in Afghanistan the support they need in order to overcome their opponents. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 2:22 PM by David Adesnik  

NO BIRTHDAY PRESENTS FOR HIM: Robert Tagorda remarks that

I've never understood how the New Year's significance reaches the level of a noteworthy holiday. For Pete's sake, it marks a temporal inevitability. Isn't that a rather pitiful excuse for throwing streamers and otherwise acting the fool?

An eminently logical argument. But here's some advice, Rob: don't even think of pulling that one out as an explanation when you forget to buy Noemie a present for your annivesary! (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 2:15 PM by David Adesnik  

THE SHI'ITES ARE GONNA GET TOUGH: Juan Cole asks: With Saddam out of the way, why make nice to the Americans?

Cole makes a good case, but I am skeptical as usual about predictions of Shi'ite unruliness. What really would've been appreciated is an answer to the question that everyone in the media is dodging: do the Shi'ites really want democracy, or just "one man, one vote, one time"? (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 1:44 PM by David Adesnik  

A FEW GOOD MEN: Matt Yglesias certifies that John Ashcroft has turned over the Plame investigation to serious prosecutors and not partisan hacks.

Josh Marshall agrees and speculates about why the turnover happened in the first place. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 1:08 PM by David Adesnik  

ANOTHER HOMELESS DEMOCRAT: I had a long talk this morning with George Packer, a staff writer for the New Yorker who recently published an excellent in-depth account of the occupation. George also wrote (for the NYTM) what was probably the best article on reconstruction planning that made it into print before the war.

George actually got in touch with me because of my affiliation with Harvard, and not because of OxBlog. However, he is a daily consumer of Josh Marshall's Talking Points Memo. The reason George got in touch was because he heard that my dissertation focused on the role of American conservatives in returning democracy promotion to the foreign policy agenda in the 1980s.

Unfortunately, I don't think that I was as much help as George might've hoped. The reason is twofold. The first is that my research is still ongoing, so I know far more about the Carter era and the early Reagan years than I do about the later period.

Second, I don't have much to say (yet) about the neo-conservatives' stand on democracy promotion in the 1980s, as opposed to the Republican stand in general. Nonetheless, I think George was rather struck when I described how Elliot Abrams and Tom Harkin joined forces to help kick out the Pinochet government in Chile.

The reason for George's interest in early neo-con views on democracy promotion is that he is trying to unearth the intellectual roots of George W. Bush's post-9/11 agenda. While there is no question that neo-conservatives generally embraced democracy as the antidote to communism in the 1980s, in it is far less apparent that they had a serious interest in laying the institutional foundations for democratic reform in allied nations.

Instead, my general sense is that their focus was primarily on bashing the Soviet for the lack of democracy in Eastern Europe and supporting the freedom fighters/"freedom fighters" in Nicaragua. Nonetheless, as I emphasized to George, Reagan's rhetorical support for democracy brought idealism back on to the Republican agenda and made today's ideological rhetoric (and corresponding half-actions) possible.

As far as the current administration goes, George has very little nice to say. His tone when discussing Republicans in general is fairly similar to that of Josh Marshall. When it comes to Iraq, George has the cynicism bred of first-hand encounters with the unforgiveable incompetence of the CPA.

Yet in spite of it all, George is dangerously close to being a liberal hawk. Like TNR and like Michael Totten (and OxBlog, of course) George really believes that the Democratic party must reclaim its heritage as the true advocate of liberal internationalism, of using American power to ensure the spread of democratic values across the globe.

As such, George feels no less marginalized within the Democratic party than does TNR or Michael Totten or OxBlog. He was glad to hear however, that the Rachels and Patricks of this world are doing the best to create a real future for Democratic foreign policy. If the lib hawks are ever to have the success that the neo-cons have had, we have to have scores of young idealists ready to march into the next Democratic administration and ensure that it lives up to our ideals.

Not in 2004, however. With a sense of personal disappointment that can only grow out of true loyalty, George regrets the rise of Howard Dean and the resurgence of the ostrich-headed doves. And Wes Clark isn't much better. But more important than the views of Dean and Clark is the fact that the Democratic base has no real desire to unite power and idealism. Instead, most Democratic voters continue to embrace a sort of kneejerk multilateralism.

And so it goes. For as long as misery loves company, liberal hawks will be social animals. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:48 PM by David Adesnik  

A HONEYBELL CAVEAT: BE writes that

I spent a short period of my youth living in Florida, and "Honeybells" are essentially just one of a number of types of citrus fruits in the "tangelo" family - hybrids of tangerines and grapefruit. I remember eating my first tangelo 20+ years ago when I was just a kid, and it spoiled my taste for oranges - I used to pine for them when we moved back to Illinois.

The "Honeybell" variety is generically known as a minneola, and they are now widely available at most US supermarkets in the late fall through early spring. Once you've eaten a minneola, it's hard to ever think about eating a regular orange again. They are somehow "orange-ier" than real oranges - the flavor is out of this world.

Minneolas are also grown in South America now, so there is sometimes a second season for them in late spring/early summer. Minneolas and Honeybells are identical - you don't have to buy them from Cushman's. Both my kids (6 and 4) eagerly anticipate when "the minneolas come back".

BE also points out that evertyhing you wanted to know about Tangelos can be found right here. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:52 AM by Patrick Belton  

DISPATCH FROM THE LAND OF CHRISTMAS, PART TWO: Sing, muse. Sing of snow angels and dog mushing and Christmasses at 40 degrees below.....

I sing of arms, and a man off of whom they froze. Any witnesses here in the Arctic interior of Alaska, where my in-laws' log cabin overlooks Denali, the Great One, 200 miles away to the south, on Tuesday night could have observed the edifying spectacle of this author running around outside in his underwear, searching for firewood in 30 below, shouting "cold state, cold state, cold (expletive deleted) state." The Alaskans have invented an entire technology to combat the cold that surrounds them like a cruel embryo, consisting of parkas, hot tubs, hot springs, saunas, and bunny boots, warm to 30 degrees below. This technology has given the state its dominant symbols - even when temperatures warm up to near freezing, Alaskans rumble about outside in thick, garishly colored parkas, as if displaying the symbols of a common tribe.

Yet in the cold, there is beauty, as in a particularly cruel Aryan ex-girlfriend. While dawn in winter only briefly flashes the state her pink middle finger - Fairbanks receives roughly two hours of sunlight at the winter solstice, while Barrow, in the far north, sees no sunlight from early November until the end of January - the reflective world of snow and ice catch up the ambient light of night, in a universe that shades straight from sunrise to sunset across long reds and pinks, and where you can always be sure of being up before dawn to catch it. And when Aurora-Dawn neglects the state, her sister Aurora Borealis more than makes up for her. The University of Alaska at Fairbanks, which keeps track of this sort of thing, records that Northern Lights appear in the sky 260 days out of the year, and are still not fully understood, even though they disrupt electronic communications...and increase the population of Japan. The belief is apparently quite strong in Japan that conception of a child under the aurora borealis bodes well for the offspring's future, and Alaska has done remarkably little to discourage the belief - the lodge at Chena Hot Springs and the airport in Anchorage (the closest city to Alaska) both sport signs in Japanese as well as English. Each time the northern lights appear here in the Arctic, they appear simultaneously in mirror image in the southern hemisphere, where they are known as aurora australis.

It is a land of sourdoughs and cheechacos - the first, the veridical Alaskans, who sport gruff beards, wear carhartts, and fed the yeast in their dough (hence their names) straight since the gold rush of 1907. The second are newcomers - often soldiers, many black, who served here and returned to a land remarkably free of prejudice against their color. Lawyers, too - the state's bar has the highest percentage of Yale and Harvard graduates in the nation, who come here to indulge their thirst for frontier life, and hang out their shingles as small lawyers with practices based on crashed small airplanes (the only way to get around the great unreachable Bush, apart from snow machines and dog sleds) and torts claims lodged against the odd rifle-ready folk who come up here to treasure their privacy, and who remember wounds. There are poets and theologians, who erect log cabins with gorgeous views to sit and write; and "blow-ins" who come up from the Pacific Northwest to eat granola and work on the large federal parks. (Ninety percent of the state's territory is in federal hands.) There are Christians and communists, who carve communes into the soil, hunt, trap, and sell crafts and furs, like the Puritans before them who settled the lower forty-eight in search of a New Jerusalem. The mountain-men yeomanry of Appalachia have their progeny, too, in the small game hunters and fur trappers, who run trapping lines across the bush, and live a life as remote from human society as any resident of an industrial democracy is likely to lead anywhere. It is a land that features outhouse racing - the only place in the world the sport is played - and midnight baseball on the night of the summer solstice at the home diamond of the Fairbanks Golddiggers. It is a land of extremes, in weather and character.

Fairbanks began as a gold digging town, and in good gold-digging fashion, Cheechaco Lil was the first prostitute to have turned up in Fairbanks, in 1910, on 2nd Avenue - which has retained the reputation. Georgia Lee Eldredge died in the 1950s at the age of 77 as Fairbank's most successful prostitute. She was not attractive, even in her youth. The day she died, one devoted patron called several friends to say he did not intend to go on without her, and then shot his dog and himself with a double .30 rifle. She left $100,000 in her bank account, and no heirs.

I ventured to Two Rivers on a balmy morning of 26 below to take a dog-sled ride in the capable care of Leslie Goodwin, who runs a dog mushing center christened "Paws for Adventure". We were outside for an hour, during which I paid careful attention to the onset of the different stages of frostbite across various appendages of my body. After half an hour, I remember thinking for a brief fleeting moment that even the prospect of Dick Morris sucking on my toes didn't seem that bad, if it would only succeed in warming them up. It was an almost welcome moment when I realized that I was no longer able to feel my toes - at least then, they no longer hurt. With my mind thus cleared of distractions, I could pay attention to my lesson in dog mushing from my expert guide. Mushing terminology is straightforward: "hike" is forward, "haw" left, "gee" right, and "wow" stop. The dogs - anxious, beautiful creatures - are happiest when they are pulling - they are bred to pull things, and left to their own devices run around looking for chains to pull. When first teamed up, they explode off at close to 16 miles per hour, settling into a canter of 8 to 12 mph after a few minutes. There is hierarchy in these things: the front dogs are drivers, who need to be born leaders among dogs, and must be intelligent (not too intelligent, though, or they will forsake the entire enterprise of pulling sleighs wholesale. Sled dogs must not be philosophers). Back dogs must be the strong ones, who can pull the sleigh from a halt. The other dogs are more interchangeable parts.

There's a certain sense of lost innocence one feels about leaving Alaska. It fades away from you slowly - in Fairbanks International Airport, you see the sourdoughs trotting around, greeting each other with grunts in a gruff, manly benevolence. In Anchorage, there are fewer (as they intermix with tourists from Japan and the lower forty-eight, and German and Korean women married to the army); then at Seattle-Tacoma, they fade away entirely as you move past the Alaska Airlines terminal - and then you are left in bland, granola, ski-muffin land. The feeling is one of loss, like an expulsion from Eden. I have never done it without incredible sadness.

So this is my Alaska, the land I have married into. Lastly, a confession - this is actually being posted after my return from the far North to the north of Manhattan island, since with my Alaskan connection it turned out to be roughly as fast to pick up a phone and read 0s and 1s out loud to Blogger. I received this morning an email from a reader in Alaska who turned out to have sat next to my in-laws and me at The Return of the King. People, if you sight an OxBlogger on the street: we're always happy to pundit in person in return for any vices (actually, just caffeine, hard alcohol, or tobacco...and large hats, for Josh...we're fairly clean-cut bloggers....) (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 6:27 PM by David Adesnik  

MATT YGLESIAS IS A TEENAGE GIRL: So is Josh Marshall. At least according to Dana Blankenhorn at Dean 2004 (aka Dean Nation), that is.

What Dana's trying to say is that Matt and Josh and other supposedly liberal media hacks are

so anxious to do the bidding of Washington Democrats and take Dean down. They know that Dean brings, not just a Democrat to power, but true democracy, in all its revolutionary hurly-burly fervor. A Dean Administration would not just discomfit them, it would turn their safe little lives upside-down.

Wisely, Matt decided not to honor this sort of ridiculous cheapshot with a substantive response. Also on the bright side, Aziz from Dean Nation invited Ezra Klein to defend Matt and Josh in a lengthy response to Dana. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 6:13 PM by David Adesnik  

A REALLY GOOD IDEA FROM HOWARD DEAN: Raise the minimum wage to $7. As Kevin Drum explains, the $7 figure is modest by historical standards. Moreover, even larger raises didn't result in higher unemployment. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 5:41 PM by David Adesnik  

CLINTONOMICS AND ITS RIVALS: The NYT has a good round up of the Democratic candidates' economic programs and the differences between them. While the Times emphasizes the similarities between most of the candidates proposals, I think it is worth noting a couple of differences. (For a quick review, take a look at the handy chart provided here.

First and foremost, Dick Gephardt is a hardline old-economy man. He is for repealing all of Bush's tax cuts, for rolling back free trade and in favor of massive new health care expenditures. (What I didn't know was that Al Sharpton advocates almost all of the same things. Btw, Dennis Kucinich does as well, but no one cares.)

Second, Howard Dean is on the fence between the new and old Democratic programs, with his desire to reverse all the tax cuts and rethink free trade. However, his health insurance plans seem to be in line with most of his rivals'.

Third, Wes Clark's program is somewhat undefined. He's for keeping middle-class tax cuts and holding the line on free trade. But he has no health care plan yet. Also, he has what the NYT describes as a plan for a $100 billion stimulus package, which probably merits further research on my part.

That leaves us with Edwards, Lieberman and Kerry, who basically have identical plans.

So what does this all mean? My sense is that it heightens the importance of foreign policy in the primaries, because that's what differentiates the candidates. Moreover, given Gephardt's marginality, the economic divide once again casts Dean as the left-wing insurgent in a moderate liberal party.

I think that it is this dynamic which really drives the conventional wisdom that the party will eventually have to make a choice between Dean and Clark. The question in my mind is whether the also-rans will endorse Clark soon enough to prevent a Dean victory.

UPDATE: El Camino thinks that the differences are even more pronounced than I've made them out to be and that economic policy will become an important focus of the primary campaign. He adds that the details of Clark's stimulus package can be found here. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 5:28 PM by David Adesnik  

THE BEST OF THE BAGELS: The NYT has arrived at a short list of three bakeries in Manhattan and three in the outer boroughs that make New York's best bagels.

Noticeably absent from the list is the legendary H&H Bagel shop on the Upper West Side. Perhaps this is a punishment for hubris. As its reputation spread, H&H began to jack up its prices in a shameful manner. But in a city of so many culinary delights, such behavior can be self-destructive.

The stories behind the great bagel marts are no less delicious than the bagels themselves. One was founded by a Thai immigrant who spent almost a decade as an apprentice bagel maker before opening his own store, Absolute Bagels, on Broadway and 107th.

Another store was opened by the son of a bagel baker who decided that the Wall Street life was not for him. The third of Manhattan's big three was acquired in a winning poker hand by the current proprietor's grandfather.

I love New York! (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 5:12 PM by David Adesnik  

MORE ON HONG KONG DEMOCRACY: Prosperity is not enough. They want freedom. Tens of thousands of citizens marched to demand universal suffrage for the executive and legislative elections of 2007-8. (See Patrick's post below for more details.)

This is a cause America should support. A short while ago, I provoked considerable ire by suggesting that the United States not bother supporting Taiwan's pro-independence referendum.

One justification I should've offered for my anti-referendum position was that the US needs to keep its powder dry for more important conflicts -- such as this one. When it comes to Hong Kong, the oligarchs in Beijing can't dodge the issue by whipping up an anti-American nationalist fervor.

Hong Kong is an integral part of China. Whereas widespread hatred of Taiwan ensures the continuing possibility of war, the people of China see no justification for using violence against their fellow citizens in Hong Kong.

As such, the value of a democratic precedent in Hong Kong -- within the PRC -- may be even more effective than that of an offshore precedent on Taiwan. If Hong Kong goes democratic, which city will demand its freedom next? Macao? Guangzhou? Shenzhen?

One Tiannanmen can be crushed. A thousand cannot. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 2:54 PM by Patrick Belton  

THE NEW YEAR'S HONOURS LIST, released today by Downing Street, includes Tim Berners-Lee, a man who has as good claim as any to have invented the World Wide Web, writers Graham Greene, John le Carre, Aldous Huxley, and Evelyn Waugh, and actors Joan Plowright and Pete Postlethwaite. Further down the list appear blues musician Eric Clapton, the chair of of the Roller Coaster Club of Great Britain, a four-time British hairdresser of the year, and the entire English rugby team, who each receive MBEs. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 2:42 PM by Patrick Belton  

ON A BRIGHT NOTE FOR NEW YEAR'S DAY, a quite massive rally in favour of democracy took place this morning in Hong Kong, with the number of participants ranging in various estimates from 37,000 to 100,000. Activists were particularly aroused by the decision by pro-Beijing HK chief executive Tung Chee-hwa to appoint 102 non-elected members to the city's legislature, though the Basic Law negotiated between Britain and China before the territory's handover in 1997 gives him that right. The demonstration today is the largest in favour of democracy since July, when a half million residents of Hong Kong protested; in parliamentary elections in November with 400 seats at stake, pro-democracy candidates largely routed candidates sympathetic toward Beijing. China's response has been wary, with Chinese security agencies stepping up their monitoring of Hong Kong in the wake of Beijing's surprise at the July protests.

Among the groups struggling for democracy in Hong Kong are the Hong Kong Voice of Democracy, the Frontier, and Legislative Councillor Emily Lau (a US- and British-educated former journalist, and the Council's only female member). Their struggle, as a former British territory now joined with an authoritarian regime, is poignant, and their cause is that of all freedom-loving peoples, wherever they live. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 2:28 PM by Patrick Belton  

AMID INCREASED ALERTNESS to the hijacking by terrorists of flights arriving in the U.S. from Britain, US fighter jets escorted BA Flight 223 into Dulles after the names of roughly a dozen passengers matched entries in a terrorist watch list. Passengers were interviewed and deplaned without incident; today, the same flight was cancelled following security advice from the government. (WaPo, NYT). In all, at least four other incoming foreign flights in the last week have been directed to secure areas of the landing airport's tarmacs and subjected to rescreening, and F-16 escorts have also shadowed incoming foreign flights from Air France into Los Angeles. An Aeromexico flight from Mexico was turned back in midair after it was revealed that the carrier had not followed its own stated security procedures in screening passengers.

(Fortunately for me, Air Alaska isn't for security purposes considered a foreign carrier....) (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 2:12 PM by Patrick Belton  

AND IN THE NEW YEAR, new state laws are taking effect all around the United States. Among them- in New York, state law now requires that credit card receipts only include a few digits from your credit card number; Illinois extends the statute of limitations in child sex abuse cases to permit prosecutors to bring charges against Catholic priests who would otherwise be protected by statute of limitations; Illinois also prohibits tattoo shops and other non-dentist providers from splitting the tongues of midwestern teenagers (and whoever said there was nothing for teenagers to do in the midwest?); and Tennessee cracks down on mattress fraud (a huge Tennessean scandal, we're told) by requiring vendors to display prominently on mattresses whether they are new or used. Enjoy all of these fun and exciting new laws! (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 1:53 PM by Patrick Belton  

A VERY HAPPY NEW YEAR to all of our friends and readers! (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 1:34 PM by David Adesnik  

EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL DIFFICULTIES: No, that isn't a a euphemism for a hangover. There is actually a disturbance in the force, i.e. my wireless network. For the moment, I've jerryrigged the system by disabling the network completely and plugging the ethernet cable into this laptop.

Anyhow, the problem ought to be resolved later today. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 4:32 PM by David Adesnik  

NRO ACCOLADE FOR OXBLOG: Along with Merde in France and Innocents Abroad, OxBlog has won the title of "Best Euro-Blog 2003". For these in doubt, let me say that OxBlog is a part of New Europe. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 4:02 PM by David Adesnik  

HEARTS AND MINDS -- NYT AT THE FRONT: Correspondent Eric Schmitt describes the remarkable ability of American soldiers to adapt to the challenges of nation-building. He writes that

When First Lt. Ryan Peay reported for duty here in mid-October, his assignment was to call in 105-millimeter artillery strikes on the opposing forces' positions. With major combat in Iraq long over, that job lasted about two days.

Instead, Lieutenant Peay, 24, was thrown into the breach as his battalion's civil affairs officer, responsible for hiring the unit's 20 Iraqi interpreters, employing hundreds of Iraqi guards and setting priorities for $1.5 million in requests from local leaders for new wells, schools, hospitals and Internet cafes.

"I had no clue," said Lieutenant Peay, whose background for his new task amounted to his international relations courses at the Virginia Military Institute and a summer study program in Fez, Morocco.

But in two months, his superiors say, Lieutenant Peay has shifted gears smoothly from trigger puller to aid giver, helping to dispense more than 50 projects worth $250,000, parrying the persistent entreaties of sheiks and mayors twice his age and sorting out scam artists from expert engineers. "A lot of it is really common sense," he said.

With civilian aid experts still in short supply or scared off by the security threats, the story of Lieutenant Peay and others like him is told hundreds, if not thousands, of times over as the American military continues to shoulder the biggest effort to help a nation restore its civilian society since the end of World War II.

How is it possible that American soliders with little training and no familiarity with the local culture are doing such a good job? Well, one possibility is that they aren't. Lt. Peay may just be an outstanding soldier who is hardly representative of his peers. After all, this wouldn't be the first time the NYT got a major story wrong by focusing on anecdotes that run against prevailing trends. (Remember how the invasion had become a quagmire after ten days?)

Of course, it is extremely rare for the NYT to report good news that isn't representative of broader trends, especially when it comes to Iraq. Moreover, I can't really think of any articles in the NYT or elsewhere that describe the failure of American soldiers to adapt. There have been stories about language barriers and the stress of counterinsurgency work, but no indications that the soldiers themselves are doing a bad job. If things haven't been going right, it's because the Pentagon didn't plan in advance and now refuses to put enough boots in the mud.

For some more evidence that confirms Eric Schmitt's reporting, turn to today's Op-Ed page, where a Marine lieutenant colonel describes the way his soldiers won over the hearts and minds of local residents in southern Iraq. Admittedly, the south is Shi'ite territory, where local residents have been overjoyed at the American decision to oust Saddam Hussein. But don't forget the warnings that blanketed the media in the first weeks after the invasion: Even the Shi'ites will do everything in their power to get rid of a foreign occupier on Iraqi soil. They may have been anti-Saddam, but they are hardly pro-American.

Even if the odds of success were never as long as the press made them out to be, I still think it's fair to praise the US armed forces for a job well done. Still, that doesn't answer the question of why soldiers trained to kill have proven so adept at reconstruction.

The answer I'm going to give is not a new one. As this author observed back in May,

One of the most important reasons that I have much greater faith in the Pentagon's ability to promote democracy in Iraq (as opposed to the State Department's), is that rank-and-file American soldiers have a long tradition of sharing democatic values with all those they encounter. Even our generals and admirals tend to adopt this same straightforward approach.

While American diplomats have often risked their lives and reputations for the sake of human rights, their measured, cosmopolitan approach is not best-suited to countries in need of a total transformation. From where is stand, the best hope for democracy in Iraq and Afghanistan to just let our soldiers do what their grandfathers did in Germany and Japan: be themselves.

Now let me be clear. I'm not arguing that Iraq will someday become a democracy simply because we have American soldiers on the ground. But those soldiers are the foundation on which success can be built if there is enough resolve in the White House and on Capitol Hill.
(0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 3:28 PM by David Adesnik  

OXBLOG GETS A LITTLE FRUITY: I know it's a little late for holiday shopping, but isn't there always someone you've left off of your list? If that's the case, head straight over to the HoneyBell website, where you can ask the folks at Cushman's Farm to send the sweetest Florida oranges in existence to that special someone.

Now I know what you're thinking: Big deal, a bunch of fruit. Well, the first time someone sent me a package of HoneyBells, I thought the same thing. Then I ate one. And another. And another. And another.

Eating an orange will never be the same again once you've had a HoneyBell. Actually, HoneyBells are not oranges, but a cross between a Dancy Tangerine and a Duncan Grapefruit. But if you saw one, you'd probably say it's an orange.

Still, it isn't appearance that matters. It's the taste. Unfortunately, HoneyBells aren't something you can buy at your local store. They are a limited edition fruit available only in January and only from the folks at Cushman's.

Of course, that means that the price is a little higher than it would be for an orange, plus you have to pay shipping and handling. Even so, there are lots of nice packages to send for between $30 and $40. Most importantly, don't forget to send some to yourself, because you want to miss out on this culinary delight. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 1:43 AM by David Adesnik  

NEW MOTTO FOR INSTAPUNDIT: Created accidentally by OxBlog. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 1:21 AM by David Adesnik  

HEARTBREAK KID HEARTBROKEN IN TITLE BOUT: Heartbreak who? Title what? We're talking about pro wrestling, so get with the program. Just a few hours ago, live on cable television, Shawn Michaels (aka The Heartbreak Kid) came within a hair's breadth of taking the world title away from Triple H.

I don't watch wrestling much these days because of time constraints, but when I'm on vacation I try to get a few episodes of RAW and SMACKDOWN! under my belt. The reason I'm posting about tonight's title bout was that it was one of the most extraordinary wrestling matches I've ever seen. I haven't seen that many pay-per-view events, but this match easily surpassed those that I have seen and demolished any of the competition from network and cable events.

Beyond their stunning athleticism, both HBK and Triple H demonstrated once again why they are two of the best showmen in the sports entertainment industry. Even though their match lasted for almost 40 minutes, it wasn't boring for a second, because both men made the plot come alive with their expressive physical performances.

Moreover, HBK was performing for his hometown fans in San Antonio, so their rabid enthusiasm added a powerful dimension to an already epic battle. While I may have given away the result of the match, any of you who is even the slightest wrestling fan (and has TiVo or Digital Direct) should stop reading immediately and take a look at the match. You'll be glad you did.

UPDATE: Mike Daley reminds me that the WWE deserves major applause for dispatching its superstars to the deserts of Iraq in order to raise our troops spirits for the holidays. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:28 AM by David Adesnik  

TPM ON DEANSPEAK: Josh Marshall blasts Howard Dean for playing the defection card again. And rightly so. (Josh also has a very good debunking of the-Kurds-captured-Saddam myth up on his website.)

Given that Dean already had to apologize once for implying he wouldn't back any other Democratic candidate, it seems like the Governor really isn't able to hide his feelings very effectively on this one.

My reading of the situation is that Dean knows intellectually that he will have to back the Democratic candidate rather than become a useful idiot for the Bush campaign, but nonetheless feels that he is the only true Democrat in the race.

Regardless of the validity of that position, Dean's transparent charade makes him look both like a liar and a Benedict Arnold. Given that Dean manages to call his own truthfulness into question on an almost daily basis, his hopes of donning the John McCain/straight-talking mantle are becoming less and less realistic. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:13 AM by Patrick Belton  

IRISH PAPAL DIPLOMAT ASSASSINATED IN BURUNDI: Michael Courtney, one of the Catholic Church's most experienced diplomats, had been involved in peace talks in the conflict-ridden central African nation. Blessed are the peacemakers.... (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 3:17 PM by David Adesnik  

SHERLOCK HOLMES IN IRAQ: Phil Carter pays tribute to the junior intelligence analysts in the 4th Infantry Division who tracked down Saddam. The full story is available to WSJ subscribers.

All I can add is that the outstanding soldiers responsible for finding Saddam did exactly what Americans are supposedly unable to do: they used common sense and cold logic to understand the inner workings of a foreign culture and the behavior of clandestine guerrillas.

It wasn't just a handful of exceptional soldiers who accomplished this impressive objective, however. The analysts who tracked down Saddam depended on the intelligence produced by countless other soldiers through interrogations, informant accounts and other methods. Thus, it is the United States armed forces as an institution that has demonstrated its adaptability to foreign cultural settings. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 2:56 PM by David Adesnik  

THE DAVID BROOKS PILE-ON: He deserves all the criticism he's getting for this misguided column. Robert Tagorda explains why. For sharply-worded critiques from the Democratic side of fence, take a look at what Kevin Drum and Josh Marshall have to say. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 2:31 PM by David Adesnik  

BEST OF THE SILVER SCREEN: As a curmudgeonly foe of Hollywood excess, I tend to post film reviews only when I think that popular movies suck. But there are plenty of movies I do enjoy from beginning to end, so here is a salute to two of them that debuted in 2003.

First, Pirates of the Caribbean. There are of lot of films with brilliant special effects and immaculate historical settings. But Pirates stands out from all the rest because Johnny Depp turns in one of the great comedic performances of our time.

Second, Finding Nemo. Another triumph for Disney & Pixar. While other studios struggle to find human actors with real emotions, Disney & Pixar give us fish who express complex thoughts and emotions in language simple enough for children to understand.

For more on the best of Hollywood in 2003, check out this essay by the NYT's A.O. Scott, as well as the attached Top 10 lists by each of the Times' film critics. More amusing, however, is the NYT critics discussion of the worst films of the year.

All in all, I think the three NYT Top 10 lists are pretty good. Naturally, I wish I'd had the chance to see all of the films that Mitchell, Scott, and Holden did. If I went to theater every night instead of once a month, there might be more favorites on my list. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 2:16 PM by David Adesnik  

STRAIGHT EYE FOR THE QUEER BLOG: Dan Drezner is already doing good work over at andrewsullivan.com.

According to Dan, the NYT has quietly admitted that Halliburton isn't up to anything nefarious in Iraq. Well, I guess without Cheney as CEO the Halliburton boys just aren't as conspiratorial and malicious as they used to be.

Also, in case you missed it, Andrew handed out his annual awards for public hyperbole just before heading off for Christmas vacation. My favorite is from Bill O'Reilly:

"Eminem may be the 'people's choice,' but he is as harmful to America as any al Qaeda fanatic."

Coming soon -- rhyming fatwas. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 1:58 PM by David Adesnik  

MAKING EVEN THE DUMBEST SH** INTERESTING: Glenn Reynolds has a fascinating post on metal pans. No, really.

For all of you hidebound traditionalists who think blogs should focus on issues of actual significance, take a look at Glenn's posts on bias in the French and German media as well as anti-blog stirrings on this side of the pond. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:40 PM by David Adesnik  

THE ULTIMATE GUEST BLOG: Dan Drezner will be taking over for Andrew Sullivan this week.

As Voltaire might have said, this is the best of all possible worlds. Dan's brilliance and even-handedness deserve the kind of audience that only the Dish or Instapundit could provide.

As a quick perusal of the blogosphere ecosystem shows, the most popular blogs on both left and right tend to be intensely partisan, often to the point of being shrill. (Drum and Volokh are exceptions.)

There is, of course, no inherent virtue in moderation. In fact, an adversarial approach to political debate is indispensable to democratic dialogue. Nonetheless, an active partisan debate hardly ensures that all relevant perspectives will make it onto the table.

From my experience online, I'd say that Dan Drezner is exactly the kind of principled moderate who brings to the fore both facts and issues that both left and right tend to ignore. With any luck, those of Andrew's readers who get to know Dan this coming week will make his blog a regular stop on their daily tour of the web. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:15 PM by David Adesnik  

A COMMON MISCONCEPTION: As Matt Yglesias point out, we are not dependent on foreign oil. We are simply dependent on oil.

Since oil is a commodity, it doesn't matter where you get it from. There is a global market for the stuff, so even if we got all of ours from Mexico, events in the Middle East would still determine the price.

In theory, if we had enough oil here in the US to provide for domestic demand, the government could force producers to sell below market price. Of course, that is probably neither a good idea nor one George Bush has any interest in taking.

PS Kudos to Matt for the new photo on his homepage. I didn't think the whole unshaven Josh Marshall-esque thing worked for Matt anyway. I think the new progressive yuppie look is much better. Of course, the real test is whether Matt starts getting more play from his groupies. ;) (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 10:27 PM by David Adesnik  

SHOULD OLD ACQUAINTANCE BE FORGOT: As is customary, today's issue of the NYT Magazine is devoted to obituaries of noteworthy men and women who passed away over the course of the last twelve months. Highlights include fitness visionary Lucille Roberts, CIA founding father Walter Pforzheimer and pro-wrestling belle Miss Elizabeth.

There is also a well-deserved essay on UN troubleshooter Sergio Vieira De Mello. Unfortunately, the essay itself is a multilateralist fluffnut rather than an effective tribute to Mr. Vieira's talents. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 10:01 PM by David Adesnik  

HOWARD DEAN IS REALLY, REALLY RICH: Does it matter that a populist insurgent has a house in the Hamptons and a net worth of $4 million? Strictly speaking, no. But if you resent George Bush for pretending to be a corner-store Texan, you can't let Howard Dean off the hook for his own embrace of political theater. While Dean still has a ways to go before he reaches Bushian levels of faux populism, this issue is probably worth watching.

While we're on the issue of character, I think it's worth mentioning that documents given to the NYT show that presidential politics were, in fact, behind Howard Dean's decision to seal his gubernatorial records in Vermont. While Dean admitted as much last January, he then described his admission as a bit of unserious humor just last week.

What is it with this guy? Is he really so opportunistic that he can't remember what he says from one month to the next? (Cf. NAFTA) While one could dismiss all these examples as nothing more than minor gaffes, I think that they will hurt Dean because so much of his support stems from resentment of how George Bush sometimes plays fast and loose with the facts. If he doesn't occupy the moral high ground, Dean will have a hard time presenting himself as an alternative to Bush.

Finally, the WaPo has a fair and balanced assessment of the former Vermont governor up on its editorial page. The WaPo hopes that the old DLC/mainline Democrat who governed Vermont will re-emerge once the anti-war activist on the campaign trail wraps up the nomination.

Strangely, Matt Yglesias suggests that the WaPo's preference for a DLC candidate rather than a McGovernite demonstrates that there is no such thing as liberal media bias. If the WaPo endorses Bush in November, Matt might have a point.

UPDATE: Another day, another Deanism. Unsurprisingly, Dean has already issued an apology explaining why he isn't the sort of McGovernite as his initial statement made him out to be. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 2:41 PM by Patrick Belton  

RICHARD COHEN ASKS, "Is a metrosexual someone who has sex on the subway? Somehow I knew this could not be the case -- you can't even eat on the Washington Metro -- but knowing what it could not be still left me wondering what it is."

After asking "some young people", he arrives at a research conclusion: "Saddam Hussein, a dapper dictator in his salad days, was a metrosexual but emerged from his hole a pure heterosexual. Tim Russert is not a metrosexual, George Stephanopoulos is, Bill Clinton is an omnisexual, Ann Coulter is a psychosexual and Strom Thurmond was just a pig." (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:52 PM by David Adesnik  

RECONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS: This is another issue I got a lot of mail about, so I thought I'd post some of the comments I got while I was away in California. JH writes that

Regarding the President’s statements on who we will spend our money with, W speaks for the soldiers when he says none want to have to guard the ELF contractors and their supply lines reeking of Brie, and unless the Germans come in to build breweries they can stay home too. In addition approx. 40-50% of the work force for our defense industry served in uniform. They are a vital part of our capabilities and not corporate beggars.

Agreed. I reject the simplistic arguments of all those who portray defense contractors as malicious parasites (even if major reforms in the military procurement process are needed.) Still, the issue in Iraq is what's best for the people of Iraq and the struggle for democracy. Moreover, American companies should have no problem competing in an open marketplace that includes French and German corporations.

On a different note, MK asks

Why should the United States give U.S. taxpayer money to countries who:
1) resisted U.S. efforts in the U.N. in every possible way,
2) lobbied against and slandered us privately and publicly in Europe and the Mideast,
3) never contributed any troops, and
4) likely supplied Sadaam with intelligence and possibly equipment in the war against the U.S.?

It is the U.S.'s money, why should they get it? Don't you think that's the height of hypocrisy, to do everything possible to slander the President and his administration, to obstruct the war effort, and then to cry that they're not getting American dollars to rebuild a country they could have helped relieve from oppression and tyranny?

First of all, some hypocrisy on the part of the French and Germans may have to be tolerated in the best interest of Iraqi democracy. Perhaps more importantly, there is a big difference between French and German corporations and the French and German governments. It is not clear to me why punishing the former is a particularly effective way of threatening the latter.

On a related note, B argues that

[Russia, France and Germany] were
owed by Saddam something in the neighborhood of 20 billion dollars. A debt these nations claim the Iraqi people now owe. It would be better for us and the Iraqi people if these debts were wiped off the books. But that ain't going to happen unless we have some leverage with those nations. Such as these contracts.

Given that no more than a small share of US contracts would go to Russian, French, and German corporations, I'm not sure how much leverage they would provide in terms of pressuring those governments to forgive Iraqi debt. Besides, my understanding is that the governments of our nominal allies are the ones who hold Iraqi debt. Why would they let go of it in exchange for payments to the private sector?

While there were many more readers who wrote in with well-written and well-thought out comments on this issue, most of their main arguments have been brought up by the three letter-writers whose arguments are excerpted above. So thanks to everyone who took the time to write in. Your thoughts are always appreciated.

PS For some good blogospheric criticism of my arguments, check out this post from Steve Sturm. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:30 PM by David Adesnik  

OXBLOG VS. DEMOCRACY PROMOTION: For the second time this month, OxBlog is coming down on the anti-democratic side of an issue. The issue this time is freedom for whales.

As demonstrated by the case of Keiko, aka "Free Willy", some creatures do not have an inherent desire for freedom. Animal rights activists insisted that Keiko should be "free", rather than enjoying the benefits of a benevolent dictatorship at any one of a thousand aquariums that would've been proud to have him.

Even though millions of dollars were spent on preparing Keiko for freedom, he never abandoned his desire for human company. According to psychologist Clive Wynne

A love of animals is no bad thing, but when one beast receives more resources than all but the tiniest fraction of the world's wealthiest people, we should at least stop and think for a moment...

It is a classic anthropomorphic fallacy to believe that an animal's best interests are whatever a human would desire under similar circumstances.

Hence, let it be clear from this moment forward that OxBlog is a supporter of human rights.

Also I'd like to take this opportunity to respond to those who criticized me for taking the anti-democratic side in the most recent China-Taiwan dispute. I would've responded earlier if I hadn't been in California. Anyhow, one of the well-thought out criticisms of my post came from JH, who writes that Taiwan's

ballot proposal poses absolutely no threat to anyone, least of all China. It's utterly symbolic, and will not threaten a single citizen of Mainland
China. That being so, there is very little that would justify China's response --and even less to justify our support for China's response.

Even if we didn't endorse the Taiwanese election, what we did was very specifically and forcefully endorse China's right to dictate to democratic Taiwan what it can and cannot choose to do. That's a very chilling precedent considering we're supposedly committed to paying any price to
building a democracy in Afganistan and Iraq...

JH is right that the ballot proposal is utterly symbolic. And that's exactly why there is no need for the United States to support it. It will result in no real gains for democracy on Taiwan or anywhere else. All it will accomplish is the provocation of mainland China.

Another JH writes that

Chen is a politician. Fortunately, he is not an opportunist, except when it comes to democracy.  Not a bad thing. During his tenure, Chen has certainly erred and just as certainly deepened the roots of democracy here in Taiwan. Again, this is not at all bad. Here and now, the defensive referendum is certainly a hot topic and certainly worth examination because the referendum will be the start of a much needed reexamination of the status quo. That is something the powers in Beijing just cannot allow and America must insist upon if we are to follow up on President Bush’s Forward Diplomacy initiative.

Why is the referendum something that "the powers in Beijing just cannot allow"? Because it is a fundamental threat to their hold on power. In abstract terms, that is a good thing. But there is no excuse for risking massive bloodshed when other avenues of reform exist. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:28 AM by David Adesnik  

ANTI-PENILE MEDIA BIAS: If you're going to publish a story about cannibalism, why not go the whole nine yards? (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 12:15 AM by David Adesnik  

REMEMBER PAKISTAN? The NYT Magazine ran this informative article on Pakistan well before the recent assassination attempts on Pervez Musharraf put it back in the headlines.

In contrast to most big media round-ups, this one describes both the limits as well as the growth of fundamentalist influence in Pakistan. Wisely, author Barry Bearak decides that Pakistan is better described than generalized about.

For some additional commentary from a gay Pakistani blogger, click here. Best of luck to all of those whose families and communities aren't ready to accept them for who they are. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:59 PM by David Adesnik  

WHINING AND DINING: Prof. Bainbridge defends grapevine snobbery. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 11:10 PM by David Adesnik  

JUST BEFORE WE GOT SADDAM, the New Yorker published Sy Hersh's latest dirty-laundry expose about the Pentagon. Its basic message is that American failures in Iraq are pushing the Administration toward adoption of the brutal and self-destructive counter-insurgency methods of the Vietnam era.

According to an unnamed American consultant in Baghdad,

“The only way we can win is to go unconventional. We’re going to have to play their game. Guerrilla versus guerrilla. Terrorism versus terrorism. We’ve got to scare the Iraqis into submission.”

In spite of assembling a number of similar quotes from unnamed sources, Hersh doesn't have much evidence to back up his claim that the United States is about to abandon the civilian-friendly moral high ground.

The low point in Hersh's article is his uncritical quotation of charlatan-slash-turncoat Scott Ritter. While that sort of lapse is noteworthy by itself, the contents of Ritter's quote are especially amusing:

“The high-profile guys around Saddam were the murafaqin, his most loyal companions, who could stand next to him carrying a gun...but now he’s gone to a different tier—the tribes...

Guys like Farouq Hijazi can deliver some of the Baath Party cells, and he knows where some of the intelligence people are. But he can’t get us into the tribal hierarchy.”

Well, evidently someone got us inside whoever it is was guarding Saddam. Now, the fact that we got Saddam doesn't disprove anything Hersh is trying to say. But his willingness to play up worthless sources like Ritter demonstrates how committed he is to portraying the occupation as a failure. Thus, when things go right, committed pessimists like Hersh find it hard to explain how that was possible when we were supposed to be stuck in a quagmire. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 10:45 PM by David Adesnik  

THE GRINCH WHO STOLE MIDDLE EARTH: The Return of the King did not suck. Its climactic battle scene was even more stunning than the siege of Helms Deep in The Two Towers. But all in all, it was just more and more and more of the same.

What I probably resented most about the film was how much it was hyped. This film was supposed to be the Empire Strikes Back of the Ring trilogy, the installment whose narrative depth matched its techincal achievements.

Instead, we got another Return of the Jedi. The loyal audience is there, so why bother being creative? This was a miniseries, not a cinematic epic. At some point in the third hour, the audience at Loews' 34th St. Theater realized that it could dispense with all the pseudo-profundity and simply cheer after each improbably brave deed performed by one of the lovable heroes. Instead of medieval saga, this was a 1950's matinee version of WWII.

There were strong points, however. As the NYT pointed out, Gollum is brilliant. He is a landmark in the synthesis of acting and technology. What the NYT didn't say is that Gollum is literally the only character in the whole film who isn't two-dimensional.

(Note to Chafetz: That was joke. Gollum is literally one of many characters in the film who is two-dimensional and figuratively the only one who is three-dimensional.)

So there. Send me your hate mail. Tell me I've ruined your Christmas. Call me a film snob. Just don't make me sit through that movie again. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 10:23 PM by David Adesnik  

KWANZAA IS UN-AMERICAN: Only a black person is allowed to say that. Which is why the NYT found a black op-ed writer who wanted to say that.

Her argument is extremely persuasive. Why should black Americans search for a mythical African past when they have so much to celebrate about their American heritage?

After all, what is more quintessentially American than a downtrodden people's legendary struggle to win those rights reserved for all mankind by the Declaration of Independence? As the NYT op-ed notes,

Indeed, their [i.e. African-Americans'] goals — self-determination, individual rights, social mobility, the franchise, majority rule, religious freedom — had little counterpart in the African tradition. They demanded their American birthright. They panned for gold. They pioneered the West. They educated their children in Europe. Few returned to Africa.

Black Americans have much to resent about their treatment throughout the centuries. Yet their struggles have defined what it is to be American for all of us, both black and white (and every other color). That is something we can all celebrate.
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# Posted 10:10 PM by David Adesnik  

THE PRODIGAL SON RETURNS: Many thanks to Josh and Patrick for nurturing our collective enterprise while I was off sunning myself at a research library in California. Thankfully, I did have a few days of R&R in the warm California sun, thanks to a reunion of sorts for Trumbull alums on the west coast.

The positive effect of that R&R was lost, however, when a traffic jam on the freeway made me miss my flight back to Boston on the 23rd. I then spent six hours in the airport, took a red-eye flight back to Logan International, and crashed into bed at 7:30 the next morning. I got up at 4, did some laundry, then headed out to South Station to get a train to New York.

I got home to family just before midnight on Christmas Eve. If I weren't Jewish, it would've been a very emotional moment. Regardless, I'm glad to be back online and ready for 2004.

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# Posted 4:32 PM by Patrick Belton  

MICHAEL JACKSON REVEALS HIMSELF AS A MASOCHIST AS WELL AS A PERVERT: "Before I would hurt a child, I would slit my wrists...." (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 2:56 PM by Patrick Belton  

TODAY IS ALSO BOXING DAY, also known in Britain and Ireland as St Stephen's Day. The origins of Boxing Day, as snopes points out, lie neither in a desire to rid the house of discarded boxes, nor in returning boxes of unwanted presents to the stores from whence they came, but instead derive from the Georgian and Victorian tradition of giving presents on St Stephen's Day to servants and tradespeople. Good King Wenceslas' gifts of meat, wine, and firewood, for example, were made to a poor man with the good fortune to struggle through the snow "on the Feast of Stephen." (Wenceslas, in turn, was a tenth century Bohemian duke assassinated by his rebellious brother en route to Mass, and thenceforth commemorated as a martyr. The familiar music dates all the way back to a 13th century hymn, "Tempus Adest Floridum," "Spring Has Unwrapped Her Flowers," a nice thought this time of the year....)

In Ireland, the feast of protomartyr St Stephen marks the day on which children traipse about from door to door collecting money to cover the burial expenses of a newly deceased bird, singing "The wren, the wren is the king of all birds / On St Stephen's Day, he got caught in the furze / So up with the kettle and down with the pan / And give us a penny for to bury the wren." (The day, in Irish, is known both as Lá le Stiofán and Lá an Dreoilín - the wren's day.) Wrens winged their way to a prominent role in druidic, perhaps even neolithic, ritual and augury. As the king of all birds, they were thought to be greater than even the eagle - because while an eagle could fly higher than all the other birds, a wren perched on an eagle's head could fly higher. (Hey, who said Bronze Age Celts didn't have a sense of humor?) Killing the wren on St Stephen's Day, in turn, could trace either to the Elizabethan idea of Christmastide Lord of Misrule, or the medieval Mumming tradition in which a champion of darkness was killed to bring life back to the world (i.e., the winter solstice; the wren, for its part, creeps along and inside stones, presumably also to include tombs).

So in a venerable English and Irish tradition, give us a penny, if you like, to bury the wren! Josh has some worthy causes here. Hey, David and I'll even sing for you! (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 2:15 PM by Patrick Belton  

A VERY HAPPY KWANZAA today to all of our African American readers and friends! Each of the seven days is given over to one of seven principles, each known by their name in Kiswahili. Today, for instance, is Umoja, dedicated to unity and togetherness; tomorrow is Kujichagulia, for self-determination and making decisions in the best interest of celebrants' families and communities; later days mark Ujima (for collective work and responsibility), Ujamaa (for mutual economic support), Nia (purpose and setting goals), Kuumba (creativity, which resounds as an architectonic concept in the writings of Rev. Dr. King), and Imani (faith).

It's a beautiful holiday, and in its use of the menoraic Kinara and its extension over many days it bears striking similarities with Hanukkah - evoking the historically strong emotional and symbolic relationship between Jews and blacks in the United States, dating from the prophetic influence in spirituals and black homiletics to the experience of shoulder-to-shoulder struggle beside each other during the Freedom rides and the struggle for voting rights in the American south. So we wish you Kwanzaa yenu iwe heri!: Happy Kwanzaa! (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 1:02 PM by Patrick Belton  

NORAD TRACKS SANTA: According to CNN, in 1955, a local newspaper mistakenly published the number for NORAD's predecessor, the Continental Air Defense Command, in place of a department store's "Santa Hotline." The senior watch officer on duty took the mistake in stride, and told kids who rang the military headquarters that he was helping Santa make his way around the world. In 1957, the Air Defense Command's Santa-tracking mission became official, and in 1997, went online.

North American Aerospace Defense Command therefore provides warning of missile and air attack against the United States and Canada, safeguards North American air sovereignty, provides air defense forces for defense against an air attack...and tracks Santa Claus. In the spirit of full disclosure, NORAD officials said the command has declassified photos of Santa from the past 40 years, which are now available on the website. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion

# Posted 8:22 PM by Patrick Belton  

DISPATCHES FROM THE LAND OF CHRISTMAS, PART ONE: Warm and happy holidays to all of our readers from the Arctic Circle, where my wife and I are spending a cozy and idyllic log-cabin Christmas with my in-laws, author Judy Kleinfeld and judge Andrew Kleinfeld, along with their huge number of furry quadrapeds! Nearby us is the North Pole (no, the real North Pole), and I can report that today, during the brief stint of polychromatic snowy daylight, it actually warmed up to a balmy 20 degrees below. I'll be doing a fair bit of holiday blogging this week from here in the land of Christmas, with despatches on dog mushing (a process in which, I should quickly note, no dogs actually become mushed), late-night aurora borealis, Eskimos, and the distinctive local characters to be found up here inhabiting log cabins in Seward's folly.

First, though, a few wintry-themed quotations for Christmas Eve, ranging from the jocular to the profound. Happy Christmas Eve, and enjoy!

Winter is icummen in,
Lhude sing Goddamm,
Raineth drop and staineth slop,
And how the wind doth ramm!

- Ezra Pound, Ancient Music (l. 1–4). The Selected Poems of Ezra Pound. (1957) (a waggish take, if you didn't get it, on the Middle English ballad, "Summer Is Icummen In, Llude Sing Cuckoo.)

In winter we lead a more inward life. Our hearts are warm and cheery, like cottages under drifts, whose windows and doors are half concealed, but from whose chimneys the smoke cheerfully ascends.... We enjoy now, not an Oriental, but a Boreal leisure, around warm stoves and fireplaces, and watch the shadow of motes in the sunbeams.

- Henry David Thoreau, “A Winter Walk” (1843), in The Writings of Henry David Thoreau, vol. 5, pp. 182-183.

The English winter—ending in July,
To recommence in August.

- Lord Byron, Don Juan, cto. 13, st. 42 (1819-1824).

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# Posted 9:05 PM by Patrick Belton  

REFLECTIONS AFTER A WEEK IN NEW YORK: It's striking, after a period of time away from the United States, how many of the experiences and pleasures I most miss about America really turn out to be things I miss about New York. The experiences of diners, the Museum Mile, a chocolate egg cream at Katz's (which, as Voltaire would likely point out, conspicuously contain neither chocolate, nor egg, nor indeed cream); the peculiar streetscapes and atmospheres of the West Village, the Upper and Lower East Sides, the palimpsested ethnic neighborhoods of Brooklyn which are so reminscent of visigothic and frankish Europe after the fall of the Western Roman Empire. Even the combination of the legibility of the grid (or grids, adding alphabet city, Stuyvensant Town, and the West Village's - all grids which at one point or another began in the Village but didn't quite get running northwards), with the arbitrariness of the distribution across space of the mighty train lines and Soho, Chelsea, Tribeca and so forth - these together provide ample grist for the local knowledge so prized, and displayed, by everyone who has inhabited the city for more than one month. While Londoners will avoid speaking with anyone on the street unless scrupulously apologized to, and afterward convinced in quick time that their interlocutor is of precisely their social class and level of education, a New Yorker will speak with absolutely everyone whosoever on the street once convinced their interlocutor supervents the comparatively low test of not being clinically insane. Both of the two previous genetic predilections of the New Yorker in his or her native, which is to say adopted, habitat come together whenever an unsuspecting bystander happens to be caught, for want of any better reading material, in a semireligious gaze at the subway system map, which coolly places the five boroughs in their prodigiously anatomical dissection. The confluence of a native helpfulness - especially toward proslyetes - with the recent convert's desire to show off a successfully internally catechized wisdom, will result in a stream of aspirants toward you, offering each to interpret for you the mysteries of the subway system, without so much as a potato knish in payment.

I'm now en route to Alaska, via first Newark, then Minneapolis (which affords a panoply of rich opportunities to the traveller, to include coffee, shaving, and bathroom facilities), and afterwards onward to Anchorage and then Fairbanks. Will I be taking a blogging break from the Arctic Circle, you ask? Fuhggedaboudit. I'll be seeing you all from there. (0) opinions -- Add your opinion